Optimal control and basic reproduction numbers for a compartmental spatial multipatch dengue model

Dengue is a vector‐borne viral disease increasing dramatically over the past years due to improvement in human mobility. In this work, a multipatch model for dengue transmission dynamics is studied, and by that, the control efforts to minimize the disease spread by host and vector control are investigated. For this model, the basic reproduction number is derived, giving a choice for parameters in the endemic case. The multipatch system models the host movement within the patches, which coupled via a residence‐time budgeting matrix P. Numerical results confirm that the control mechanism embedded in incidence rates of the disease transmission effectively reduces the spread of the disease.     

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of a vaccinated epidemic model of influenza

The basic reproduction number and the point of endemic equilibrium are two very important factors in any deterministic compartmental epidemic model as the basic reproduction number and the point of endemic equilibrium represent the nature of disease transmission and disease prevalence respectively. In this article the sensitivity analysis based on mathematical as well as statistical techniques has been performed to determine the importance of the epidemic model parameters. It is observed that 6 out of the 11 input parameters play a prominent role in determining the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. It is shown that the basic reproduction number is the most sensitive to the transmission rate of disease. It is also shown that control of transmission rate and recovery rate of the clinically ill are crucial to stop the spreading of influenza epidemics.     

Modeling the role of information and optimal control on an SEIR epidemic model with infectivity in latent period

The outbreak of a disease can lead to behavioral changes in the healthy to avert infection. We first establish a nonlinear SEIR epidemic model that incorporates the impact of individuals' behavioral response owe to information of the disease prevalence. Both the existence of equilibria and sharp sufficient conditions on stable equilibria are verified. Whereafter, the local and global sensitivity analyses are carried out to assess the relative effects of parameters on the basic reproduction number. Therewith the optimal control problem is considered to provide a theoretical basis for disease prevention and control, and the existence and uniqueness consequences for optimal control paths are demonstrated. Some numerical examples and discussions are given to support and visualize our analytical results, which can be derived that the combined use of three control measures is more effective than any single adopted control strategy to curb the spread of diseases. We also find that the information plays a crucial role in controlling infection.     

Dynamics of a generalized predator‐prey model with delay and impulse via the basic reproduction number

In this paper, we study a generalized predator‐prey model with delay and impulse. The existence of the predator‐free periodic solution is investigated. We employ the approach and techniques coming from epidemiology and calculate the basic reproduction number for the predator. Using the basic reproduction number, we consider the global attraction of the predator‐free periodic solution and permanence of the model. As for application, an example is discussed. Furthermore, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our results.     

A dynamical model of echinococcosis with optimal control and cost-effectiveness

A dynamical model of echinococcosis transmission with optimal control strategies is first presented. The basic reproduction number of the model is determined and employed to study the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The optimal control problem is formulated and solved analytically. Numerical simulations show that optimal control strategies could effectively reduce the transmission of echinococcosis. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that a combination of health education, anthelmintic treatment, and home slaughter inspection could provide the best cost-effective strategy to control the transmission of echinococcosis. Furthermore, it finds that anthelmintic treatment and environmental disinfection may shorten the time of eliminating the disease. The results may be helpful for prevention and control of echinococcosis in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, China and other areas of echinococcosis.     

Spatial‐temporal basic reproduction number and dynamics for a dengue disease diffusion model

A reaction‐diffusion system with free boundary is proposed to describe the transmission of the dengue disease from mosquitoes to humans. In addition to the classical basic reproduction number R₀, the spatial‐temporal basic reproduction number is introduced to determine the persistence and eradication of the disease. Some sufficient conditions for the disease vanishing or spreading are obtained. The disease will go extinct under one of the conditions: the classical basic reproduction number R₀ < 1 and the spatial‐temporal basic reproduction number with small expanding capability. The spread of the disease in the whole area is possible if for some t≥0. Numerical simulations are also given to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Global stability for an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with different latent stages and treatment

An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with different latent stages and treatment is constructed. The model allows for the latent individuals to have the slow and fast latent compartments. Mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are determined by the basic reproduction number under some conditions. If R₀ < 1, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R₀ > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for a special case. Some numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.     

Modelling and stability of epidemic model with free-living pathogens growing in the environment

To understand the impact of free-living pathogens (FLP) on the epidemics, an epidemic model with FLP is constructed. The global dynamics of our model are determined by the basic reproduction number $R_0$. If $R_0<1$, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if $R_0>1$, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Some numerical simulations are also carried out to illustrate our analytical results.     

Stability analysis of an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment

An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment is investigated. The model allows for some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase by all sorts of treatment methods. We first establish the ODE treatment model with two infective stages. Mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number _ℜ0${\Re }_0$. If _ℜ0≤1${\Re }_0\le 1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable, whereas the unique infected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if _ℜ0>1${\Re }_0>1$. Then, we introduce a discrete time delay to the model to describe the time from the start of treatment in the symptomatic stage until treatment effects become visible. The effect of the time delay on the stability of the endemically infected equilibrium is investigated. Moreover, the delay model exhibits Hopf bifurcations by using the delay as a bifurcation parameter. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.     

Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed epidemic model with stage structure and nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a stage‐structured SI epidemic model with time delay and nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease‐free equilibrium, and the existence of Hopf bifurcations are established. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The basic reproduction ratio for a model of directly transmitted infections considering the virus charge and the immunological response

Correspondent author email: hyunyang{at}ime.unicamp.br In order to describe mathematically the transmission of microparasites,especially directly transmitted infections, it is usual to setup differential equations assuming the mass action law and ahomogeneously mixed population. In this paper we analyze sucha model taking into account heterogeneity with respect to theinfectivity, that is, the variability in the evolution of theinteraction between parasite and the human host during the infectiousperiod. The well established biological phenomenon of initialincrease in parasite abundance followed by its decrease, dueto the interaction between the host's immunological responseand the parasite, has thus been taken into account The variableamount of microparasites eliminated by an infectious individual,and the different (heterogeneous) immunological response buildup by the host when in interaction with parasite are presentin the model. The analytical expression for the basic reproductionratio is derived through stability analysis.     

Optimal control theory of an age-structured coronavirus disease model and the dynamical analysis of the underlying ordinary differential equation model having constant parameters

This paper addresses the dynamics of COVID-19 using the approach of age-structured modeling. A particular case of the model is presented by taking into account age-free parameters. The sub-model consisting of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is investigated for possible equilibria, and qualitative aspects of the model are rigorously presented. In order to control the spread of the disease, we considered two age- and time-dependent non-pharmaceutical control measures in the age-structured model, and an optimal control problem using a general maximum principle of Pontryagin type is achieved. Finally, sample simulations are plotted which support our theoretical work.     

Development and analysis of a malaria transmission mathematical model with seasonal mosquito life-history traits

In this paper, we develop and analyze a malaria model with seasonality of mosquito life-history traits: periodic-mosquitoes per capita birth rate, -mosquitoes death rate, -probability of mosquito to human disease transmission, -probability of human to mosquito disease transmission, and -mosquitoes biting rate. All these parameters are assumed to be time dependent leading to a nonautonomous differential equation system. We provide a global analysis of the model depending on two threshold parameters and (with ). When , then the disease-free stationary state is locally asymptotically stable. In the presence of the human disease-induced mortality, the global stability of the disease-free stationary state is guarantied when . On the contrary, if , the disease persists in the host population in the long term and the model admits at least one positive periodic solution. Moreover, by a numerical simulation, we show that a sub-critical (backward) bifurcation is possible at . Finally, the simulation results are in accordance with the seasonal variation of the reported cases of a malaria-epidemic region in Mpumalanga province in South Africa.     

Quadratic Pareto optimal control of parabolic equation with state-control constraints and an infinite number of variables

A distributed Pareto optimal control problem for the parabolicoperator with an infinite number of variables is considered.The performance index has an integral form. Constraints on controlsand on states are imposed. To obtain optimality conditions forthe Neumann problem, the generalization of the Dubovitskii–MilyutinTheorem given by WALCZAK, S. (1984a) Folia Mathematica, 1, 187–196and (1984b) J. Optimiz. Theory Appl., 42, 561–582, wasapplied.     

A model of the dynamic of transmission of malaria, integrating SEIRS, SEIS, SIRS and SIS organization in the host-population

In this paper, we propose and analyse a model of dynamics trans-mission of malaria, incorporating varying degrees p of susceptible and ofinfectious that makes the dynamic of the overall host population integrateSEIRS, SEIS, SIRS and SIS at the same time. For this model we compute anew threshold number and establish the global asymptotic stability of thedisease-free equilibrium when R0 &lt; &lt; 1. If &lt; R0 &lt; 1, the system admits aunique endemic equilibrium (EE) and if R0 &gt; 1 depending on case the systemadmits one or two endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are presentedfor dierent value of R0, based on data collected in the literature. Finally,the impact of parameters p and of system dynamics are investigated.     

A multi‐regional epidemic model for controlling the spread of Ebola: awareness,treatment, and travel‐blocking optimal control approaches

Ebola virus disease (EVD) can rapidly cause death to animals and people, for less than 1month. In addition, EVD can emerge in one region and spread to its neighbors in unprecedented durations. Such cases were reported in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. Thus, by blocking free travelers, traders, and transporters, EVD has had also impacts on economies of those countries. In order to find effective strategies that aim to increase public knowledge about EVD and access to possible treatment while restricting movements of people coming from regions at high risk of infection, we analyze three different optimal control approaches associated with awareness campaigns, treatment, and travel‐blocking operations that health policy‐makers could follow in the war on EVD. Our study is based on the application of Pontryagin's maximum principle, in a multi‐regional epidemic model we devise here for controlling the spread of EVD. The model is in the form of multi‐differential systems that describe dynamics of susceptible, infected, and removed populations belonging to p different geographical domains with three control functions incorporated. The forward–backward sweep method with integrated progressive‐regressive Runge–Kutta fourth‐order schemes is followed for resolving the multi‐points boundary value problems obtained. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.