Real options in strategic investment games between two asymmetric firms

This paper examines strategic investment games between two firms that compete for optimal entry in a project that generates uncertain revenue flows. Under asymmetry on both the sunk cost of investment and revenue flows of the two competing firms, we investigate the value of real investment options and strategic interaction of investment decisions. Compared to earlier models that only allow for asymmetry on sunk cost, our model demonstrates a richer set of strategic interactions of entry decisions. We provide a complete characterization of pre-emptive, dominant and simultaneous equilibriums by analyzing the relative value of leader’s and follower’s optimal investment thresholds. In a duopoly market with negative externalities, a firm may reduce loss of real options value by selecting appropriate pre-emptive entry. When one firm has a dominant advantage over its competitor, both the dominant firm and dominated firm enter at their respective leader’s and follower’s optimal thresholds. When the pre-emptive thresholds of both firms happen to coincide, the two firms enter simultaneously. Under positive externalities, firms do not compete to lead.     

The impact of US macroeconomic news on the Polish stock market

This paper investigates the impact of US macroeconomic news announcements on the intraday returns of Warsaw Stock Exchange indices. The WSE is the largest and the most liquid stock market among the new European Union member countries. By means of an event study we examine the response of three indices, namely the WIG20, the mWIG40 and the sWGI80, describing the stock price behavior of the largest, medium-sized and small firms, respectively. The results of the empirical analysis show that the stock prices of the largest firms react in the first minute after a news release. This indicates the relatively high efficiency of the WSE. The response of smaller firms’ stock returns is slower but more persistent. The most influential are the announcements of Nonfarm Payrolls describing the US labor market. The indices of the WSE react similarly to good and bad news about the US economy.     

基于PSM方法的民营企业权力变更R&D效应研究——来自中国上市民营企业的经验数据

本文以中国沪深A股市场实际控制人发生变更的民营企业为研究对象,基于PSM模型实证检验民营企业权力变更引发的企业R&D效应变化。研究结果表明:民营企业权力变更对企业R&D效应具有显著的积极影响,在企业高层领导权变更三年内,R&D投入强度平均增长24.04%;通过分别考察家族企业与非家族企业权力变更对企业R&D效应的影响,发现尽管家族企业R&D投入普遍低于非家族企业,但是家族企业权力变更的企业R&D升级效应明显优于非家族企业,意味着家族企业在代际传承时期的权力变更有利于增强企业创新能力。     

在位企业适应突破性创新的投资策略研究

突破性技术创新的出现对企业的生存环境和技术基础产生巨大的冲击,在位企业应对突破性创新时一般有被动适应和主动适应两种策略。当突破性创新已经发生,在位企业只能根据企业自身条件和特点被动地适应技术变革。当突破性创新有可能发生时,在位企业会从战略视角作出预期,采取灵活性的投资策略,主动地适应突破性创新的冲击。本文通过一个简单的投资模型,对在位企业适应突破性创新的两种不同策略进行了分析,并给出相应的算例。     

Early box office prediction in China’s film market based on a stacking fusion model

Artificial intelligence has been increasingly employed to improve operations for various firms and industries. In this study, we construct a box office revenue prediction system for a film at its early stage of production, which can help management overcome resource allocation challenges considering the significant investment and risk for the whole film production. In this research, we focus on China’s film market, the second-largest box office in the world. Our model is based on data regarding the nature of a film itself without word-of-mouth data from social platforms. Combining extreme gradient boosting, random forest, light gradient boosting machine, k-nearest neighbor algorithm, and stacking model fusion theory, we establish a stacking model for film box office prediction. Our empirical results show that the model exhibits good prediction accuracy, with its 1-Away accuracy being 86.46%. Moreover, our results show that star influence has the strongest predictive power in this model.

     

Impact of artificial intelligence adoption on online returns policies

The shift to e-commerce has led to an astonishing increase in online sales for retailers. However, the number of returns made on online purchases is also increasing and have a profound impact on retailers’ operations and profit. Hence, retailers need to balance between minimizing and allowing product returns. This study examines an offline showroom versus an artificial intelligence (AI) online virtual-reality webroom and how the settings affect customers’ purchase and retailers’ return decisions. A case study is used to illustrate the AI application. Our results show that adopting artificial intelligence helps sellers to make better returns policies, maximize reselling returns, and reduce the risks of leftovers and shortages. Our findings unlock the potential of artificial intelligence applications in retail operations and should interest practitioners and researchers in online retailing, especially those concerned with online returns policies and the consumer personalized service experience.

     

风险投资对中小企业经营绩效的影响——基于区分风险投资机构事前效应与事后效应的视角

基于风险投资与企业绩效的内生性关系视角,即是风险投资事前选择了业绩更优的项目,还是其事后监督辅助提升了参与企业的绩效,本文对深圳创业板与中小板上市企业进行PSM配对,并对配对样本在2001至2014年的面板数据进行回归分析,研究发现与同质非风投支持企业相比,风投支持的企业总体上表现出了显著的绩效优势,但这种绩效优势仅仅源自于企业的自身发展能力。风险投资机构在投资前对优质项目具备积极的筛选能力;但在控制了风险投资的筛选效应后,风险投资机构的事后介入对受资企业的绩效甚至起到一定程度的抑制作用。在Heckman两阶段模型结合内生转置回归模型检验中同样证明了风险投资机构具有积极的事前筛选效应;但其事后介入对受资企业的经营绩效产生负向处理效应。此外,风险投资的特征因素对其事后处理效应具有显著的调节作用:相比成熟的风投机构,年轻风投对企业的经营绩效表现出更大的负面事后处理效应;而相比在企业初创阶段介入的风投机构,在企业后期发展阶段介入的风投对参与企业经营绩效表现出更大的负面事后处理效应;相比新兴产业,在传统产业中风投对企业经营绩效表现出更大的负面事后处理效应。     

Patent-investment games under asymmetric information

This paper analyzes preemptive patenting in a two-stage real options game where an incumbent firm competes with a potential entrant firm for the patent of a substitute product in a product market with profit flow uncertainty. The incumbent suffers loss of monopoly in the product market if the entrant acquires the patent of a substitute product and later commercializes the product. Our patent-investment game model assumes that the entrant has complete information on the incumbent’s commercialization cost while the incumbent only knows the distribution of the entrant’s cost. We investigate the impact of information asymmetry on the preemption strategies adopted by the two competing firms on patenting the substitute product by comparing the optimal preemption strategies and the real option value functions of the two competing firms under complete information and information asymmetry. Our analysis reveals that the informationally disadvantaged incumbent always suffers from loss in its real option value of investment since it tends to act more aggressively in competing for the patent. On the other hand, the real option value of investment of the informationally advantaged entrant may be undermined or enhanced. The incumbent’s aggressive response under information asymmetry may lead to reversal of winner in the patent race. We also examine how information asymmetry may affect the occurrence of sleeping patent and the corresponding expected duration between the two stages of patenting and product commercialization.     

Artificial intelligence for decision support systems in the field of operations research: review and future scope of research

Operations research (OR) has been at the core of decision making since World War II, and today, business interactions on different platforms have changed business dynamics, introducing a high degree of uncertainty. To have a sustainable vision of their business, firms need to have a suitable decision-making process at each stage, including minute details. Our study reviews and investigates the existing research in the field of decision support systems (DSSs) and how artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities have been integrated into OR. The findings of our review show how AI has contributed to decision making in the operations research field. This review presents synergies, differences, and overlaps in AI, DSSs, and OR. Furthermore, a clarification of the literature based on the approaches adopted to develop the DSS is presented along with the underlying theories. The classification has been primarily divided into two categories, i.e. theory building and application-based approaches, along with taxonomies based on the AI, DSS, and OR areas. In this review, past studies were calibrated according to prognostic capability, exploitation of large data sets, number of factors considered, development of learning capability, and validation in the decision-making framework. This paper presents gaps and future research opportunities concerning prediction and learning, decision making and optimization in view of intelligent decision making in today’s era of uncertainty. The theoretical and managerial implications are set forth in the discussion section justifying the research questions.

     

宏观经济信息宣告的股市收益及波动性效应——基于改进的AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1)-M模型的实证检验

基于改进的AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1)-M模型,从收益率和波动性两个方面考察各类宏观信息宣告对股票市场价格行为的影响.结果表明,居民消费价格指数和商品零售价格指数对股票市场的收益有负向影响;国内生产总值、社会消费品零售总额、公开市场操作利率变动率和企业景气指数对股票市场的收益有正向影响;公开市场操作公告会导致股票市场条件收益率显著增加;其余各类宏观信息因素对股票市场收益的波动性并不存在显著影响.     

A generalized real option pricing method of R&D investments: jump diffusion and external competition

ABSTRACT

Numerous studies have assessed Research and Development (R&D) investment using the real option pricing approach. This paper proposes a more general real option pricing method that both considers the specificity of R&D investment (such as uncertainty) and the R&D investment opportunity of a business in a market environment with external competitors. Specifically, we adopt a jump diffusion model to evaluate R&D investments that incorporate the uncertainties of these activities. The model values a pioneer's R&D investment opportunity allowing the chance that competitors may enter the market and the project value may vary with time. By construction and analysis of the model, we then analyse the optimal timing to realize profit on an investment. Overall, this model should facilitate a more comprehensive evaluation for R&D investments.     

Modeling investment behavior under price cap regulation

Motivated by the frequently observed criticism of the regulatory practice arising from companies in the industries concerned, we investigate the impact of regulation on investment behavior. Therefore, we model the investment timing and volume of a firm acting in a regulated market. When capping prices, the regulatory authority imposes a price ceiling on market prices. Accordingly, we use a real option approach where the price cap that limits possible future firm values enters the firm’s portfolio in form of a short call option position. By comparing this framework to a competitive benchmark model, we derive an optimal price setting rule for regulators. Moreover, it can be shown how deviations from this optimum affect the investment behavior of firms.      

区域开放程度与企业技术创新能力的关系研究——基于有向无环图的实证分析

基于现有研究忽略了区域对外开放程度与企业技术创新能力之间的同期因果关系问题的缺陷,本文使用了有向无环图分析方法来探讨二者之间的同期因果关系,并采用2001~2011年我国战略性新兴产业284家上市企业的面板数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:企业R&D投资越多、R&D波动性越小越有利于直接促进企业的创新产出;外方注册资本情况对企业创新产出具有直接的促进作用,并且还可通过对企业R&D投资来间接地促进企业的创新产出;区域外商投资质量通过企业R&D投资和R&D波动性间接地抑制了企业的创新产出;而区域对外贸易情况则是通过企业R&D波动性和外方注册资本情况来间接地影响企业创新产出。因此,企业应通过维持R&D活动的稳定性来促进企业技术创新的产出,同时当地政府不应盲目过多的吸引FDI,而应重点吸引、鼓励外商投资者在本地建立R&D部门,增强R&D活动的溢出效应。     

考虑IT基础设施作用的外部知识对企业流程创新影响的博弈模型

本文基于知识基础观理论和吸收能力理论,以两个异质性制造企业组成的寡头竞争市场为研究对象,参考经典研发竞争AJ模型和非对称研发模型,建立考虑IT基础设施作用的外部知识对企业流程创新影响的博弈模型。研究表明,对于异质性企业来说,成本和IT基础设施投入占优的企业通过流程创新将拥有更大的市场份额,且企业通过合作创新方式引入的外部知识量也随着初始生产成本差异和IT基础设施投入的变化而改变,总体来说,企业异质性是企业流程创新竞争不平衡性的重要原因。考虑IT基础设施作用的情况下,企业引入外部知识进行流程创新对均衡产量具有正向影响,对均衡利润的影响存在阈值,呈现先增加后降低的趋势。由于溢出效应的存在,两个企业的均衡利润随领先企业的IT基础设施投入的增加而增加,但领先企业的均衡利润随IT基础设施投入的增加幅度更大,且领先企业的均衡利润占优。本文进一步提出了加强IT基础设施建设,促进外部知识利用,提升企业流程创新能力的管理启示。     

Surplus division and investment incentives in supply chains: A biform-game analysis

In this paper, we use a biform-game approach for analyzing the impact of surplus division in supply chains on investment incentives. In the first stage of the game, firms decide non-cooperatively on investments. In the second stage, the surplus is shared according to the Shapley value. We find that all firms have inefficiently low investment incentives which, however, depend on their position in the supply chain. Cross-subsidies for investment costs can mitigate, but not eliminate the underinvestment problem. Vertical integration between at least some firms.yields efficient investments, but may nevertheless reduce the aggregated payoff of the firms. We show how the size of our effects depends on the structure of the supply chain and the efficiency of the investment technology. Various extensions demonstrate that our results are qualitatively robust.     

On the Stability and Solution Sensitivity of a Consumer Problem

We present a continuous-time generalization of the seminal research and development model of d’Aspremont and Jacquemin (Am Econ Rev 78(5):1133–1137, 1988) to examine the trade-off between the benefits of allowing firms to cooperate in research and the corresponding increased potential for product market collusion. We show the existence of a solution to the optimal investment problem using a combination of results from viscosity theory and the theory of planar dynamical systems. In particular, we show that there is a critical level of marginal cost at which firms are indifferent between doing nothing and starting to develop the technology. We find that colluding firms develop further a wider range of initial technologies, pursue innovations more quickly, and are less likely to abandon a technology. Product market collusion could thus yield higher total surplus.     

Tacit collusion games in pool-based electricity markets under transmission constraints

Harrington et al. (Math Program Ser B 104:407–435, 2005) introduced a general framework for modeling tacit collusion in which producing firms collectively maximize the Nash bargaining objective function, subject to incentive compatibility constraints. This work extends that collusion model to the setting of a competitive pool-based electricity market operated by an independent system operator. The extension has two features. First, the locationally distinct markets in which firms compete are connected by transmission lines. Capacity limits of the transmission lines, together with the laws of physics that guide the flow of electricity, may alter firms’ strategic behavior. Second, in addition to electricity power producers, other market participants, including system operators and power marketers, play important roles in a competitive electricity market. The new players are included in the model in order to better represent real-world markets, and this inclusion will impact power producers’ strategic behavior as well. The resulting model is a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). Properties of the specific MPEC are discussed and numerical examples illustrating the impacts of transmission congestion in a collusive game are presented.     

Portfolio management with background risk under uncertain mean-variance utility

This paper studies comparative static effects in a portfolio selection problem when the investor has mean-variance preferences. Since the security market is complex, there exists the situation where security returns are given by experts’ estimates when they cannot be reflected by historical data. This paper discusses the problem in such a situation. Based on uncertainty theory, the paper first establishes an uncertain mean-variance utility model, in which security returns and background asset returns are uncertain variables and subject to normal uncertainty distributions. Then, the effects of changes in mean and standard deviation of uncertain background asset on capital allocation are discussed. Furthermore, the influence of initial proportion in background asset on portfolio investment decisions is analyzed when investors have quadratic mean-variance utility function. Finally, the economic analysis illustration of investment strategy is presented.

     

Evaluating performance of Iranian cement firms using an integrated fuzzy AHP–VIKOR method

In today’s competitive environment, a firm’s performance evaluation and its comparison with other companies is an important issue for investors, creditors and companies in order to reach their investment goals. They can also develop their place to increase their revenue. The aim of this study is presenting a model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and VIKOR (Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje) method. This combined method (fuzzy AHP–VIKOR) in the firm’s performance evaluation is presented by financial ratios. In this research, the proposed method is utilized in evaluating the performance of 27 Iranian cement firms in the Tehran stock exchange market for 2 years (2008 and 2009), separately. The FAHP method is used to determine weights of criteria taking the subjective judgments of decision makers. VIKOR method is then applied for ranking the firms.     

Arithmetic returns for investment performance measurement

This paper introduces new money-weighted metrics for investment performance analysis, based on arithmetic means of holding period rates weighted by the investment’s market values. This approach generates rates of return which measure a fund’s or portfolio’s performance and a fund manager’s performance. It also enables to show that the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a weighted mean of holding period rates associated with interim values which differ from market values, so that value additivity is violated. The manager’s Arithmetic Internal Rate of Return (AIRR) is shown to be the true period equivalent of the cumulative Time Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR), whereas the period TWRR (a geometric return) provides a different ranking. The method is easily generalized for coping with varying benchmark rates. We also cope with the practical problem of estimating interim values whenever they are not available.