An Inspection Policy for the Gamma Failure Distributions

This paper provides an easily computable one parameter inspection policy for the detection of the failure of a system when the time to failure of the system follows a gamma distribution. This one parameter inspection policy, as suggested by Munford and Shahani, compares fairly well with a computationally difficult optimal policy suggested by Barlow, Hunter and Proschan. Necessary tables are provided for the "optimal" parameter for a wide range of the parameters of the problem, from which the successive inspection times can be computed easily.     

双参数威布尔分布下可靠性抽样检验

对于失效时间遵从双参数威布尔分布产品，本文分别提出了制订全样本下和定时截尾样本下可靠性抽样检验方案的统计方法．质量统计是不可靠度的矩估计的严格增加函数．选择截尾时间的方法被提出．利用分布分位数的Coruish-Fisher展开，佯本量和接收常数被近似地确定．模拟结果表明。本文给出的方法是可行的．     

A Nearly Optimal Inspection Policy

This paper is concerned with an easily computable inspection policy for the detection of the failure of a system. A one-parameter policy is suggested and it is shown that this policy has the property of decreasing (increasing) intervals between successive inspection times if the system has an increasing (decreasing) failure rate. Cost comparisons, using linear cost functions, with a computationally difficult optimal policy which has a minimium expected cost show that the proposed policy compares quite well with the optimal policy.     

威布尔分布无失效数据失效概率的估计

通过讨论威布尔分布函数形状参数m的大小,给出各检测时刻失效概率pi的相互关系作为先验信息,得到pi(i=1,2,…,n)的Bayes估计,并且试验数据显示此种方法是可行的.     

威布尔更新函数的一个精确近似式

威布尔分布的更新函数有许多应用,如产品质保政策分析、维修决策优化和备件需求预测。威布尔更新函数没有解析表达式,这给求解各种涉及更新函数的优化问题带来不便。已有的威布尔更新函数近似式有一个共同的问题:其精度随威布尔形状参数的增大而减小。为克服这个问题,本文提出一个新的近似式,对于大的威布尔形状参数(>3.65),其相对误差比已有近似式的相对误差小得多。一个维修政策优化的数例例证其精确性和有用性。     

对数正态分布和Weibull分布变差系数的抽样验证方案

本文在参数的极大似然估计的基础上，给出了对数正态分布和Ｗｅｉｂｕｌ分布变差系数的抽样验证方案．     

经济过热统计检验与货币政策分析

2003年以来我国经济增长保持快速发展趋势,固定资产投资和货币供应量及金融机构贷款增长迅猛.而在某些行业如房地产、汽车制造、水泥、钢铁及有色金属等行业,在一些地方又出现了盲目投资和低水平重复建设现象,这些现象引起了人们对当前经济增长状况的担忧,有人认为中国经济已经过热了,出现了通货膨胀的趋势,需要降温;而有人则认为中国仍然处于消费不足的状态中,还要进一步启动经济.中国经济是否过热,本文使用统计数据来做检验,并进行货币政策分析.     

具有Weibull生存死亡特征的冷链品库存补货定价策略研究

建立了无限期内冷链品具有Weibull生存死亡特征、随机需求且受售价影响的库存补货定价模型,其中售价是连续变化的,需求率是售价的指数函数,变质率服从的三参数Weibull分布,提前期固定。系统以利润最大化为目标函数,在(r,Q)库存策略下,建立库存模型,采用直接法,对模型近似求解,得到最优补货定价策略。利用Matlab进行算例模拟和灵敏度分析发现:补货提前期和单位仓储成本对补货定价策略影响较大,二者增大会导致系统利润降低;单位处理成本的增加,在一定程度上使得系统降低最优补货量,使系统利润增加;保鲜期固定的前提下,受冷链品的流动环境因子和存储环境因子影响的变质率对补货定价策略影响较大,它的增大会使系统利润降低。这些发现能够帮助优化系统模型,对现实问题具有一定的指导意义。     

Weibull分布定时截尾试验数据情形下可靠度的置信限

本文针对Weibull分布定时截尾型试验数据提出了一种计算可靠度置信限的方法。通过采用数据填充的方式将不完全数据虚拟成完全数据,利用完全数据情形下可靠度置信限的计算方法得到删失数据情形下可靠度的置信限。模拟研究表明本文提出的算法具有较好的计算稳定性和可操作性。     

第三讲:Weibull分布和对数正态分布情形的可靠性评定

对于产品寿命服从Weibull分布或对数正态分布的情形,针对几种不同类型的数据(例如随机截尾,定数截尾情形出现的数据),分别给出了可靠性参数(可靠度、可靠寿命)的点估计或置信下限。特别是在定时截尾出现零失效情形,给出了可靠性参数的置信下限的计算公式。     

一种检验定性指标的有效方法

介绍了一种检验定性指标的有效方法,可用于确定产品的合格率和评价检验人员的检验水平。用该方法分析了某厂产品的一项实际指标,合格率为91 4%,还对该厂10名检验员的检验水平作了客观的评价。     

威布尔分布场合下步进应力加速寿命试验的统计分析

本文对寿命分布为两参数威布尔分布,加速模型为逆幂律的情况,由定数截尾步进应力加速寿命试验数据获得加速模型中未知参数的点估计和区间估计,进而给出了加速系数的区间估计,并用一个模拟例子说明方法的应用．     

被检测系统的可靠性和最优检测策略

研究被检测系统的一个模型,假定系统有4种运行状态(正常工作、异常工作、正常故障和异常故障)．系统故障时不需检测,系统工作时必须经过检测才能知道它是正常还是异常．系统开始工作后,每隔一段随机时间对它检测一次,直到系统故障或检测出系统处于异常状态为止．利用概率分析和随机模型的密度演化方法,导出了系统的一些新的可靠性指标和最优检测策略．     

An Inventory Policy for Slow and Fast Movers in a Petrochemical Plant: A Case Study

The present paper deals with a real life case study which was carried out in a large petrochemical company. A central storehouse contains spare parts, articles of consumption and equipment. The continuous increase of inventory and the substantial depreciation due to deterioration required the existing inventory procedure to be evaluated. An ABC-analysis was carried out and appropriate models for different classes of items were developed. After evaluation of these procedures in an inventory simulator, the proposed methods were introduced in practice.     

An approximate lower tolerance bound for the three-parameter Weibull applied to lumber property characterization

We investigate a large sample approach for obtaining tolerance bounds where the underlying population is a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Accurate tolerance bounds could play an important role in the development of lumber standards. Properties of the maximum likelihood based approach are compared with those of the standard nonparametric tolerance procedure. The asymptotic normal approximation to the tolerance bound was found to be inadequate for most of the cases considered.     

An Optimal Policy for Servicing Warranty

In this paper we study a policy for servicing items sold with warranty. We obtain the optimal policy to minimize the expected warranty cost per unit sold.     

Empirical Bayes inference for the Weibull model

In this study, the theory of statistical kernel density estimation has been applied for deriving non-parametric kernel prior to the empirical Bayes which frees the Bayesian inference from subjectivity that has worried some statisticians. For comparing the empirical Bayes based on the kernel prior with the fully Bayes based on the informative prior, the mean square error and the mean percentage error for the Weibull model parameters are studied based on these approaches under both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, via Monte Carlo simulations. The results are quite favorable to the empirical Bayes that provides better estimates and outperforms the fully Bayes for different sample sizes and several values of the true parameters. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the efficiency of the empirical Bayes.     

An Optimal Complete Inspection Plan for Critical Multicharacteristic Components

In this paper, a new inspection plan for critical multicharacteristic components is presented. A mathematical model that depicts and represents the plan has been developed. An algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal number of repeat inspections and sequence characteristics for inspection that minimizes the expected total cost. The expected total cost consists of the cost of false acceptance (cost of Type II error), cost of false rejection (cost of Type I error), and the cost of inspection. Empirical comparisons with the Raouf et al. model on randomly generated problems have been conducted. The results have shown that the proposed plan performs better in terms of the expected total cost on 82% of the generated problems for the assumed specific parameters. The reduction in the expected total cost ranges from 0.1-10%.     

分组检验法在家蚕微粒子病检查中的一个应用

本文首先对家蚕微粒子病分组检验问题进行了剖析；然后，提出了Ｍ个有毒集团中含有二只病蛾的集团数的概率模型，其模型为二项分布Ｂ（Ｍ，０．０７）；最后根据集团检验的结果，得到了病蛾数的估计值，其值为（１．０７Ｍ＋０．０７）。     

An Optimum Repair Policy for the Machine Interference Problem

This paper presents two repair policies for the machine interference problem where machines have two failure modes. In policy I priority of repair is assigned to one failure mode over the other, while in policy II the two failure modes have equal probability of repair. Computer programs were developed to obtain the optimal number of machines to be allocated to a single repair crew for the two policies. Under the same operating conditions, policy II is superior to policy I. The repair crew efficiency and machine availability were evaluated for both policies.