半参数ACD模型及其在中国股票市场中的应用研究

本文提出了半参数ACD模型并基于模拟样本与调整后的中国股票市场的价格时间间隔样本对模型进行实证分析.半参数ACD模型对条件期望的函数形式与随机误差项的分布形式要求都没有参数ACD模型强,因此不会像参数ACD模型那样因模型形式设定错误而得出错误结论.这一点在我们的实证分析中可以得到证实.与非参数ACD模型相比,半参数ACD模型能够估计出参数,这增加了模型的解释能力.半参数ACD模型估计出来的各个可加部分图形的形状对于正确设定参数ACD模型具有一定的指导作用.     

Extension of the Arruda-Boyce model to the modelling of the curing process of polymers

A phenomenologically motivated finite strain general framework to simulate the curing of polymer have been developed and discussed in our recently published papers [2,4]. The Arruda-Boyce model is a classical hyperelastic model for polymeric materials. This contribution presents an extension of the Arruda-Boyce model towards modelling the curing process of polymers following our previous framework. In this paper, we will show how to model the elastic behaviour and shrinkage effects of the polymer curing process in the isothermal case using the Arruda-Boyce model. Several numerical examples have been demonstrated to verify our newly proposed modified approach in case of curing process. (© 2011 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

人力资本价值计量模型研究

本文就人力资本价值计量问题引出一种新型投入产出模型——描述人力资本价值生产过程的投入产出模型 .讨论了模型的可行性 ;构造了人力资本价值的可操作性计算模型 .还对这一投入产出模型的非对称性引起的几个基本概念的变异进行了讨论     

分层广义线性模型在准备金评估中的建模研究

考虑到赔付流量三角形数据同一事故年反复观测的纵向特征以及数据结构的层次性,建立了分层广义线性模型.与通常的随机模型相比,分层广义线性模型不但可以选择条件反应变量的分布而且风险参数分布范围也更加广泛.利用h-似然函数估计分层广义线性模型的模型参数,降低了计算量.为使模型具有可比性,评估模型的预测精度,推导了模型预测误差的估计式.为充分利用已知赔付信息,将赔付额和赔付次数两种赔付信息纳入未决赔款准备金评估模型,建立了两阶段分层广义线性模型.在线性预测量中考虑了各种固定效应和随机效应以及模型结构的散布参数,改进了线性预估量结构.研究表明:分层广义线性模型对于数据的各种分布及形式都具有很好的适应性,更加符合保险实务现实的赔付规律.     

中国股票市场风险的实证分析研究

本文从实证角度说明了上证指数和深证成份指数存在着GARCH现象 ,并建立了沪、深两市股指波动率的IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型。将估计的IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型比较得出 ,对上证指数的波动率 ,IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型的模拟效果基本相同 ,而对深证成份指数的波动率 ,IGARCH M模型要略优于EGARCH M模型。同时还对两市的股指收益的波动率进行了预测分析     

Extensions of the Ho and Lee interest-rate model to the multinomial case

The paper presents a state dependent multinomial model of intertemporal changes in the term structure of interest rates. The model is a one-factor interest-rate model within the Markov family models for short-term interest rate and it extends the Ho and Lee [J. Finance XLI (5) (1986) 1001] binomial model. We derive the theoretical basis of the multinomial model, suggest a computational framework to evaluate the model's parameters and investigate the suitability of the model for the Italian market.     

On infinity of the discrete spectrum of operators in the Friedrichs model

The discrete spectrumof selfadjoint operators in the Friedrichs model is studied. Necessary and sufficient conditions of existence of infinitely many eigenvalues in the Friedrichs model are presented. A discrete spectrum of a model three-particle discrete Schrödinger operator is described.     

On the quality of the data envelopment analysis model

The user of data envelopment analysis (DEA) has little available guidance on model quality. The technique offers none of the misspecification tests or goodness of fit statistics developed for parametric statistical methods. Yet, if a DEA model is to guide managerial policy, the quality of the model is of crucial importance. This paper suggests four alternative purposes of DEA modelling, and offers four measures of the quality of a DEA model which reflect those purposes. Using Monte Carlo simulation methods, it explores the performance of DEA under a wide variety of assumptions. It notes that four issues will have an important influence on model results: the distribution of true efficiencies in the study sample; the size of the sample; the number of inputs and outputs included in the analysis; and the degree of correlation between inputs and outputs. The paper concludes that any judgement about the reliability of model results must be dependent on the objective of the analysis.     

房地产销售商投机行为的稳定性分析

分析了房地产销售的纳什博弈模型、房地产开发商作为领导者寡头博弈模型、房地产销售商作为领导者寡头博弈模型、房地产市场销售讨价还价博弈模型四种房地产市场销售博弈模型的利益分配机制和收益策略.结果表明,在房地产开发商作为领导者寡头博弈策略中,房地产销售商具有实施投机行为的动机,利益分配机制不稳定;在房地产销售商作为领导者寡头博弈策略中,房地产销售商没有实施投机行为的动机,利益分配机制的稳定;在房地产市场销售讨价还价博弈策略中,房地产销售商利益分配机制的稳定性与房地产产品的差异化替代率和无限期重复博弈策略的贴现率均有关.     

金融市场波动性CARR类模型与GARCH类模型的比较研究

在CARR模型基础上提出它的衍生模型ABSCARR模型,并利用广义误差分布(GED)讨论了它们的条件残差分布问题,最后运用CARR类模型对高频金融时间序列进行了实证分析.研究结果表明:CARR及其衍生模型在高频金融时间序列的价格波动性捕捉方面具有良好的效果,而GED的引入可以很好的用于分析CARR模型具体的条件分布情况,而CARR模型的条件残差分布应该并非只有指数分布与威布尔分布两种形式.     

模特身材影响大赛结果的灰关联分析

将灰关联分析方法应用于近年来的三次CCTV全国模特电视大赛,分析了有代表性模特身材因素的灰关联关系,从而找到了人们对大赛结果产生质疑的原因.提出了解决的办法.     

沪市股票风险与收益关系实证研究

由于我国股票市场每日报酬时间序列的非正态性和厚尾性,且呈现波动集群性,基于正态假设的静态模型存在很大的缺陷,而Arch类模型具有很好的处理厚尾的能力,能较好的描述股价等金融变量的波动特征,因此将Garch-M模型引入,通过实证分析,结果表明,Garch-M模型能显著提高预测的准确性.     

On the joint characterization of the distributions of the true income and the proportion of the reported income to the true income through a model of under-reported incomes

In this note, we assume that the reported income is related to the true income by the so-called ‘error-in-variables’ model, a model which assumes that the observed incomes are under-reported. In the context of this model, the distribution of the reported income suitably truncated below coincides with that of the true income, and suitable truncated above with that of the random proportion of the reported income to the true income if, and only if, the distribution of the true income is Pareto and that of the proportion is of the power function form.     

组合预测方法在黑龙江垦区大豆产量预测中的应用

首先建立了黑龙江垦区九三地区的大豆单产的Logistic模型,通过梯度法得出模型的参数估计值,并对模型进行了分析.其次,再利用逐步回归方法建立了大豆产量与气象因子的逐步回归模型,确定了影响九三地区大豆产量的主要气象因子,最后运用组合预测和最优权数计算的方法,建立了九三地区大豆产量的组合预测模型,进一步提高了模型的精度,这对指导大豆生产具有重要意义.     

A statistical model of the controller functions of the human temperature- regulating system in water

In a previous paper, a least-squares approach was used to develop a model of the control system's response to temperature stresses in an air environment. This procedure has now been applied to the case of temperature stresses during water immersion. The model presented here includes equations for predicting metabolic heat production and surface blood flow. In addition, upper and lower limits have been determined for each controller response. Validity of the model has been tested via simulation. The control system model developed in this study was incorporated in an existing complete temperature-regulation system simulation model. Thus modified, the complete model was used to simulate a number of published experiments. Graphical and statistical analysis indicates that the model is valid over a wide range of temperatures.     

Mathematical analysis of the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Sudan

In this paper we develop a mathematical model to study the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Sudan. To develop this model we consider the dynamics of the disease between three different populations, human, reservoir and vector populations. The model is analyzed at equilibrium and the stability of the equilibria is analyzed. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the threshold conditions for disease elimination established. Results show that the disease can be eliminated under certain conditions. Simulations of the model show that human treatment helps in disease control, and its synergy with vector control will more likely result in the elimination of the disease.     

On some generalization of the DEA models

Inadequate results may arise in some instances of DEA model applications. For example, a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model may show ‘a notoriously inefficient unit’ as an efficient one. In addition, too many efficient units may appear in some DEA models. An elegant and subtle approach was proposed to deal with these problems, which is based on incorporating domination cones in DEA models. Yu, Wei and Brockett suggested the generalized DEA (GDEA) model that unifies and extends most of the well-known DEA models based on using domination cones. In this paper, we propose a model that is more general than the GDEA model, on the one hand, as it covers situations that the GDEA model cannot describe. On the other hand, our model enables one to construct step-by-step any model from the family of the GDEA models by incorporating artificial units and rays in the space of inputs and outputs in the Banker, Charnes, Cooper (BCC) model, which makes the process of model construction visible and more understandable. Moreover, we show that any GDEA model can be approximated by some BCC model.     

在有交互作用下上海、伦敦期货市场铜期货价格引导关系的研究

传统的两变量引导关系模型一般仅仅考虑到自变量（包括即时与滞后因子）对因变量独立的引导作用，往往忽略了因素之间（自变量与自变量，自变量与因变量之间）交互作用对因变量产生的影响，本文提出了一种改进的引导关系模型，在传统模型的基础上添加一个交互项来刻画因素之间的交互作用对因变量所产生的影响，并对上海期货交易所和伦敦金属交易所铜期货价格之间的引导关系做了实证分析，得到一些有意义的结果，并且改进后的模型较之传统模型检验的拟合度和精确度都有一定的提高。     

带有初始风险资产的风险投资决策模型

讨论了一类在投资时期初允许带有一部分初始风险资产的风险投资组合决策问题,给出了一个满足总体风险约束下以净收益最大化作为决策目标的资产投资组合的数学规划模型。并由该数学规划的性质,给出该类问题的一个简化的线性规划决策形式。     

PM2.5相关因素及分布演变的研究

以武汉市和西安市的PM2.5检测点数据及气象数据作为基础,建立了相关性分析模型,灰色关联度模型,混合回归模型,高斯烟羽模型,分期治理最优化模型等模型,通过定量与定性分析的方法,从PM2.5的相关因素、分布与演变、控制管理三个方面,对两个市的PM2.5进行了深入的研究与探讨.