Decision support for spare parts acquisition in post product life cycle

A major task in service management is the timely and cost efficient provision of spare parts for durable products. This especially holds good, when the regular production of the product, its components and parts has been discontinued, but customer service still has to be guaranteed for quite a long time. In such post product life cycle period, three options are available to organize the spare parts acquisition, namely (i) setting up a single large order within the final lot of regular production, (ii) performing extra production runs until the end of service and (iii) using remanufacturing to gain spare parts from used products. These three options are characterized by different cost and flexibility properties. Due to the time-variability and uncertainty of demands for spare parts and also that of the returns of used products, it is a challenging task to find out the optimal combination of these three options. In this paper we show how this problem can be modeled and solved by Decision Tree and stochastic Dynamic Programming procedure. Based on the Dynamic Programming approach a heuristic method is proposed, which can be employed to come up with a simple solution procedure for real-world spare parts acquisition problems during the post product life cycle. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of the solution methods described in the paper.     

Supply capacity acquisition and allocation with uncertain customer demands

We study a class of capacity acquisition and assignment problems with stochastic customer demands often found in operations planning contexts. In this setting, a supplier utilizes a set of distinct facilities to satisfy the demands of different customers or markets. Our model simultaneously assigns customers to each facility and determines the best capacity level to operate or install at each facility. We propose a branch-and-price solution approach for this new class of stochastic assignment and capacity planning problems. For problem instances in which capacity levels must fall between some pre-specified limits, we offer a tailored solution approach that reduces solution time by nearly 80% over an alternative approach using a combination of commercial nonlinear optimization solvers. We have also developed a heuristic solution approach that consistently provides optimal or near-optimal solutions, where solutions within 0.01% of optimality are found on average without requiring a nonlinear optimization solver.     

Discrete time modeling of mean-reverting stochastic processes for real option valuation

In this paper the recombining binomial lattice approach for modeling real options and valuing managerial flexibility is generalized to address a common issue in many practical applications, underlying stochastic processes that are mean-reverting. Binomial lattices were first introduced to approximate stochastic processes for valuation of financial options, and they provide a convenient framework for numerical analysis. Unfortunately, the standard approach to constructing binomial lattices can result in invalid probabilities of up and down moves in the lattice when a mean-reverting stochastic process is to be approximated. There have been several alternative methods introduced for modeling mean-reverting processes, including simulation-based approaches and trinomial trees, however they unfortunately complicate the numerical analysis of valuation problems. The approach developed in this paper utilizes a more general binomial approximation methodology from the existing literature to model simple homoskedastic mean-reverting stochastic processes as recombining lattices. This approach is then extended to model dual correlated one-factor mean-reverting processes. These models facilitate the evaluation of options with early-exercise characteristics, as well as multiple concurrent options.     

An integrated fuzzy simulation-fuzzy data envelopment analysis algorithm for job-shop layout optimization: The case of injection process with ambiguous data

This paper puts forward an integrated fuzzy simulation-fuzzy data envelopment analysis (FSFDEA) algorithm to cope with a special case of single-row facility layout problem (SRFLP). Discrete-event-simulation, a powerful tool for analyzing complex and stochastic systems, is employed for modeling different layout formations. Afterwards, a range-adjusted measure (RAM) is used as a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model for ranking the simulation results and finding the optimal layout design. Due to ambiguousness associated with the processing times, fuzzy sets theory is incorporated into the simulation model. Since the results of simulation are in the form of possibility distributions, the DEA model is treated on a fuzzy basis; therefore, a recent possibilistic programming approach is used to convert the fuzzy DEA model to an equivalent crisp one. The proposed FSFDEA algorithm is capable of modeling and optimizing small-sized SRFLP’s in stochastic, uncertain, and non-linear environments. The solution quality is inspected through a real case study in a refrigerator manufacturing company.     

基于预约模式的移动充电车实时需求响应策略研究

预约模式下移动充电车实时需求响应问题是移动充电行业发展过程中的新问题,该问题包含了两类不同特点、存在动态交替影响关系的需求,不仅有时间窗约束、实时响应性要求,也有动态不确定性的特点。针对以上问题特点,本文以最大化整体收益为目标,提出联动的两阶段实时需求响应策略,引用近似动态规划求解决策未来价值,并融入到以下两阶段中：第一阶段基于多阶段随机动态决策模型与禁忌搜索算法生成了可以动态调整的充电服务方案;第二阶段基于第一阶段提出了针对动态需求的实时响应决策流程。最后,对比实验验证了本策略在不同客户规模与动态度下的有效性,并得出管理启示。本研究可以支持制定移动充电车的实时需求响应策略,对类似具有动态特征的需求响应问题具有启发意义。     

Probabilistic modeling of multiperiod service levels

This study investigates multiperiod service level (MSL) policies in supply chains facing a stochastic customer demand. The objective of the supply chains is to construct integrated replenishment plans that satisfy strict stockout-oriented performance measures which apply across a multiperiod planning horizon. We formulate the stochastic service level constraints for the fill rate, ready rate, and conditional expected stockout MSL policies. The modeling approach is based on the concept of service level trajectory and provides reformulations of the stochastic planning problems associated with each MSL policy that can be efficiently solved with off-the-shelf optimization solvers. The approach enables the handling of correlated and non-stationary random variables, and is flexible enough to accommodate the implementation of fair service level policies, the assignment of differentiated priority levels per products, or the introduction of response time requirements. We use an earthquake disaster management case study to show the applicability of the approach and derive practical implications about service level policies.     

Flexible machine layout design for dynamic and uncertain production environments

Flexible manufacturing systems operate in a dynamic environment and face considerable uncertainty in production demands. The development of a flexible machine layout is a critical issue in creating a system that can respond effectively to these requirements. Unlike most existing methods for creating flexible layout designs, the procedure developed in this paper is not restricted to equal size machines. It optimizes the trade-offs between increased material handling costs as requirements change and machine rearrangement costs needed to adapt the layout to these changes. The proposed flexible machine layout design procedure formulates and solves a robust machine layout design problem over a rolling horizon planning time window. The formulation, details of the solution methodology, illustrative examples, and computational results are presented.     

Fixed versus flexible production systems: A real options analysis

In this work, we address investment decisions in production systems by using real options. As is standard in literature, the stochastic variable is assumed to be normally distributed and then approximated by a binomial distribution, resulting in a binomial lattice. The methodology establishes a discrete-valued lattice of possible future values of the underlying stochastic variable (demand in our case) and then, computes the project value. We have developed and implemented stochastic dynamic programming models both for fixed and flexible capacity systems. In the former case, we consider three standard options: the option to postpone investment, the option to abandon investment, and the option to temporarily shut-down production. For the latter case, we introduce the option of corrective action, in terms of production capacity, that the management can take during the project by considering the existence of one of the following: (i) a capacity expansion option; (ii) a capacity contraction option; or (iii) an option considering both expansion and contraction. The full flexible capacity model, where both the contraction and expansion options exist, leads, as expected, to a better project predicted value and thus, investment policy. However, we have also found that the capacity strategy obtained from the flexible capacity model, when applied to specific demand data series, often does not lead to a better investment decision. This might seem surprising, at first, but it can be explained by the inaccuracy of the binomial model. The binomial model tends to undervalue future decreases in the stochastic variable (demand), while at the same time tending to overvalue an increase in future demand values.     

An analysis of p-median location problem: Effects of backup service level and demand assignment policy

Any solution to facility location problems will consider determining the best suitable locations with respect to certain criteria. Among different types of location problems, involving emergency service system (ESSs) are one of the most widely studied in the literature, and solutions to these problems will mostly aim to minimize the mean response time to demands. In practice, however, a demand may not be served from its nearest facility if that facility is engaged in serving other demands. This makes it a requirement to assign backup services so as to improve response time and service quality. The level of backup service is a key, strategic-level planning factor, and must be taken into consideration carefully. Moreover, in emergency service operations conducted in congested demand regions, demand assignment policy is another important factor that affects the system performance. Models failing to adopt sufficient levels of backup service and realistic demand assignment policies may significantly deteriorate the system performance.Considering the classic p-median problem (pMP) location model, this paper investigates the effects of backup service level, demand assignment policy, demand density, and number of facilities and their locations on the solution performance in terms of multiple metrics. For this purpose, we adopt a combined optimization and simulation approach. We will first modify the classic pMP to account for distances to backup services. Next, we employ a discrete event simulation to evaluate the performance of location schemes obtained from the deterministic mathematical model. Our results provide insights for decision-makers while planning ESS operations.     

Value-based DEA models: application-driven developments

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is an approach based on linear programming to assess the relative efficiency of peer decision-making units (DMUs). Typically, each DMU is free to choose the weights of the factors used in its evaluation. However, the evaluator's preferences may not warrant so much freedom. Several approaches have been proposed to allow the incorporation of managerial preferences in DEA, but few address the additive DEA model specifically. This paper presents additive DEA models that use multi-criteria decision analysis concepts to incorporate managerial preferences, and presents the corresponding preference elicitation protocols. The models developed allow the incorporation of preferences at different levels: on valuing performance improvements, on introducing weight restrictions, and on finding adequate targets. These were application-driven developments, resulting from discussing modelling options and preliminary results with the top-level management of a retail chain in the context of an assessment of stores’ performance, also described in this paper.     

需求不确定的服务设施网络设计模型鲁棒性研究

由于选址决策的长期性,参数面临随机波动,在选址问题中考虑不确定因素至关重要。在选址模型中提出一种新的鲁棒方法,采用有界对称的“盒子”作为不确定需求的集合,通过调节不确定预算,来权衡解的鲁棒性与系统成本之间的关系。利用该方法得到的鲁棒模型不仅能够转化成线性规划,并且可以计算出设施的最低服务水平。然后,设计禁忌搜索算法来求解该问题,数值算例的结果表明了算法的有效性。最后,分析了不同鲁棒水平下,服务设施网络不同的拓扑结构,并得到服务水平与成本之间的权衡关系。同时对需求扰动作了敏感性分析,结果表明随着服务水平的提高,成本对需求扰动越来越敏感。     

The facility layout problem

In this paper, the facility layout problem is surveyed. Various formulations of the facility layout problem and the algorithms for solving this problem are presented. Twelve heuristic algorithms are compared on the basis of their performance with respect to eight test problems commonly used in the literature. Certain issues related to the facility layout problem and some aspects of the machine layout problem in flexible manufacturing systems are also presented.     

考虑应急设施中断风险与防御的可靠性选址模型研究

为提高应急设施运行的可靠性和抵御中断风险的能力, 研究中断情境下的应急设施选址-分配决策问题。扩展传统无容量限制的固定费用选址模型, 从抵御设施中断的视角和提高服务质量的视角建立选址布局网络的双目标优化模型, 以应急设施的建立成本和抵御设施中断的加固成本最小为目标, 以最大化覆盖服务质量水平为目标, 在加固预算有限及最大最小容量限制约束下, 构建中断情境下应急设施的可靠性选址决策优化模型。针对所构建模型的特性利用非支配排序多目标遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解该模型, 得到多目标的Pareto前沿解集。以不同的算例分析和验证模型和算法的可行性。在获得Pareto前沿的同时对不同中断概率进行灵敏度分析, 给出Pareto最优解集的分布及应急设施选址布局网络的拓扑结构。     

Design of mathematical models for the integration of purchase and production lot-sizing and scheduling problems under demand uncertainty

This study addresses the multi-level lot-sizing and scheduling problem with complex setups and considers supplier selection with quantity discounts and multiple modes of transportation. The present research proposes a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model in which the purchase lot-sizing from multiple suppliers, production lot-sizing with multiple machines and scheduling of various products of different families are accomplished at the same time. However, these decisions are not integrated in traditional environments and are taken separately. In this study, two different types of lot-sizing models called aggregated and disaggregated are developed for the problem to evaluate and compare the computational efficiency of them under deterministic and stochastic demands and provide some managerial insights. To deal with the stochastic demands, Chance-Constrained Programming (CCP) approach is applied. Based on the results of this study, the average profit of the separated (purchase from production) lot-sizing model under demand choice flexibility and stochastic demand is 24% and 22% less than the integrated model, respectively. Moreover, the results also confirm the effect of discount structure on the amount of purchases, productions, revenues and costs.     

应急物流中库存与运输集成决策模型研究

已有的研究表明,在物流管理中权衡库存与运输成本之间的关系,实现两者的集成决策,可改进系统的运作绩效。在给定的仓库布局条件下,针对应急物流的配送特点,构建了单周期物资的运输与库存集成决策的随机规划模型。考虑到模型求解的复杂性,首先通过对模型的分析,获得了最优解的性质和上界,然后设计了基于BP神经网络和遗传算法的混合智能算法。在算例分析部分,揭示了服务水平、运输、和库存成本在应急物流中之间的复杂关系,说明合理权衡三者之间的关系,可以提升应急物流的管理水平。     

Integrated inventory management and supplier base reduction in a supply chain with multiple uncertainties

This paper considers a manufacturing supply chain with multiple suppliers in the presence of multiple uncertainties such as uncertain material supplies, stochastic production times, and random customer demands. The system is subject to supply and production capacity constraints. We formulate the integrated inventory management policy for raw material procurement and production control using the stochastic dynamic programming approach. We then investigate the supplier base reduction strategies and the supplier differentiation issue under the integrated inventory management policy. The qualitative relationships between the supplier base size, the supplier capabilities and the total expected cost are established. Insights into differentiating the procurement decisions to different suppliers are provided. The model further enables us to quantitatively achieve the trade-off between the supplier base reduction and the supplier capability improvement, and quantify the supplier differentiation in terms of procurement decisions. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.     

服务水平约束下动态定价与库存管理

本文研究服务水平约束下的动态定价与库存管理问题。企业在有限期内销售某种产品,产品的需求为随机需求,且期望需求依赖于产品价格。在每一期期初,企业需要在满足服务水平约束的条件下同时决定订货量和产品价格。本文首先构建了动态定价和订购联合决策的随机动态规划模型,并证明了最优解的存在性。进一步,通过对最优解的结构进行刻画,将原问题的求解转化为若干子问题的求解,降低了问题求解的难度。通过对最优解的分析发现,当期初库存增大时,产品最优价格降低。通过分析目标服务水平对利润的影响,证明了服务水平与利润之间存在权衡,实现高的服务水平需要承受利润损失。数值模拟表明,相对于传统的静态定价策略,采用动态定价策略可以降低追求服务水平所带来的利润损失,验证了动态定价策略的有效性。     

考虑繁忙率的多时段救护车优化布局研究

救护车布局对院前急救服务中需求的响应具有决定性作用。本文重点研究了考虑繁忙率的多时段救护车优化布局问题,在传统双覆盖模型基础上引入救护车繁忙率因素,提出改进后的双覆盖模型。首先计算考虑繁忙率的期望覆盖需求量,进而结合实际,将一天以早晚高峰划分为5个时段,探究不同时段下繁忙率差异带来的不同布局方案。以上海市松江区2014年数据为例,应用改进后的模型进行了系统深入的实证研究,并绘制繁忙率对需求覆盖率的影响曲线。结果表明,本文提出的布局方案比实际方案得到的期望覆盖需求量提高了3.19%,比传统双覆盖模型得到的期望覆盖需求量提高了0.54%,证明了改进后模型的有效性;需求覆盖率曲线随繁忙率增加而下降,与实际意义相符。该方法能够直观简洁地得出救护车布局方案,利于院前急救服务水平的提升,为社会安全提供有力保障。     

A linear programming embedded probabilistic tabu search for the unequal-area facility layout problem with flexible bays

In this paper, a probabilistic tabu search (PTS) approach is proposed to solve the facility layout problem (FLP) with unequal area departments. For the representation, the flexible bay structure (FBS), which is a very common layout in many manufacturing and retail facilities, is used. In this paper, the FBS is relaxed by allowing empty spaces within bays, which results in more flexibility in assigning departments into bays. In addition, departments are allowed to be located more freely within the bays, and they can have different side lengths as long as they are within the bay boundaries and do not overlap. To achieve these goals, department shapes and their locations within bays are determined LP. A PTS approach is developed to search an overall layout structure that describes relative positions of departments for the relaxed-FBS (RFBS). The proposed LP embedded PTS–RFBS approach is used to solve thirteen FLP instances from the literature with varying sizes. The comparative results show that this approach is very promising and able to find new best solutions for several test problems.     

Analytical approximation of the transition density in a local volatility model

We present a simplified approach to the analytical approximation of the transition density related to a general local volatility model. The methodology is sufficiently flexible to be extended to time-dependent coefficients, multi-dimensional stochastic volatility models, degenerate parabolic PDEs related to Asian options and also to include jumps.