Joint Monitoring of Several Types of Shocks in Normal Dynamic Linear Models: A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach

In this article we consider the sequential monitoring process in normal dynamic linear models as a Bayesian sequential decision problem. We use this approach to build a general procedure that jointly analyzes the existence of outliers, level changes, variance changes, and the development of local correlations. In addition, we study the frequentist performance of this procedure and compare it with the monitoring algorithm proposed in an earlier article.     

Sub-sample swapping for sequential Monte Carlo approximation of high-dimensional densities in the context of complex object tracking

In this paper, we address the problem of complex object tracking using the particle filter framework, which essentially amounts to estimate high-dimensional distributions by a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. For this purpose, we first exploit Dynamic Bayesian Networks to determine conditionally independent subspaces of the object’s state space, which allows us to independently perform the particle filter’s propagations and corrections over small spaces. Second, we propose a swapping process to transform the weighted particle set provided by the update step of the particle filter into a “new particle set” better focusing on high peaks of the posterior distribution. This new methodology, called Swapping-Based Partitioned Sampling, is proved to be mathematically sound and is successfully tested and validated on synthetic video sequences for single or multiple articulated object tracking.     

Bayesian Analysis of Abandonment in Call Center Operations

In this paper, we consider the modeling and the inference of abandonment behavior in call centers. We present several time to event modeling strategies, develop Bayesian inference for posterior and predictive analyses, and discuss implications on call center staffing. Different family of distributions, piecewise time to abandonment models, and mixture models are introduced, and their posterior analysis with censored abandonment data is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate the implementation of the proposed models using real call center data, present additional insights that can be obtained from the Bayesian analysis, and discuss implications for different customer profiles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic Detection of Change Points in Long Time Series

We consider the problem of detecting change points (structural changes) in long sequences of data, whether in a sequential fashion or not, and without assuming prior knowledge of the number of these change points. We reformulate this problem as the Bayesian filtering and smoothing of a non standard state space model. Towards this goal, we build a hybrid algorithm that relies on particle filtering and Markov chain Monte Carlo ideas. The approach is illustrated by a GARCH change point model.     

Prediction in Markovian bulk arrival queues

This paper deals with the statistical analysis of bulk arrival queues from a Bayesian point of view. The focus is on prediction of the usual measures of performance of the system in equilibrium. Posterior predictive distribution of the number of customers in the system is obtained through its probability generating function. Posterior distribution of the waiting time, in the queue and in the system, of the first customer of an arriving group is expressed in terms of their Laplace and Laplace–Stieltjes transform. Discussion of numerical inversion of these transforms is addressed.