Equilibrium selection under evolutionary game dynamics with optimizing behavior

The purpose of this paper is to investigate equilibrium selection in a heterogeneous population composed of both optimizing and programmed agents using an evolutionary game-theoretic framework. Under the Smith dynamic, we are able to identify a class of games in which any programmed behavior will become extinct ultimately starting from any initial state, as well as a class of games in which all programmed agents can get wiped out eventually, as long as there are not enough initially. Besides, the long-run behavior is characterized under a variety of well-behaved dynamics such as the Brown–von Neumann–Nash dynamic.     

Money,prices and interest rates in a non-aggregate stochastic general equilibrium model

This paper explores the relationships between money, prices, uncertainty and interest rates in a stochastic general equilibrium model. Taking a non-aggregate pure exchange economy with time and uncertainty as the starting point, money is introduced as a means to keep track of past transactions of goods and insurance services and as an instrument to settle debts. As a result, in this stochastic general equilibrium model the desire to hold money arises from the demand of goods and services, Arrow-Debreu securities, and assets. Since these sources of demand for money are strongly related to the economy output, the economy degree of uncertainty, and the interest rates, this paper provides not only an alternative framework to the traditional keynesian analysis of the liquidity preference, but also an extension of the cash-in-advance models for introducing money in a general equilibrium model.     

随机利率下亚式期权的定价模型

§1Introduction Asianoptionpayoffdependsontheaverageofassetpricesoverthelifeofoptions.Theirpopularityistoavoidthepossiblepricemanipulationatthematuritydatefor ordinaryoptions.ItturnsouttobedifficulttoderiveBlack-Scholes-likeclosed-form formulaforAsianoptionsbecausethedistributionofarithmetic-averageassetpricesdoes nothavestandardexpression.AlotofworkhasbeendoneonpricingAsianoptionssince KemmaandVorst(1990).Manytreatmentsdealwiththecaseofgeometricaverageforthe firststepeitherasanapproximatio…     

Poisson cluster measures: Quasi-invariance, integration by parts and equilibrium stochastic dynamics

The distribution μcl of a Poisson cluster process in X=Rd (with i.i.d. clusters) is studied via an auxiliary Poisson measure on the space of configurations in X=n_?Xn, with intensity measure defined as a convolution of the background intensity of cluster centres and the probability distribution of a generic cluster. We show that the measure μcl is quasi-invariant with respect to the group of compactly supported diffeomorphisms of X and prove an integration-by-parts formula for μcl. The corresponding equilibrium stochastic dynamics is then constructed using the method of Dirichlet forms.     

Valuation of life insurance products under stochastic interest rates

In this paper, we introduce a consistent pricing method for life insurance products whose benefits are contingent on the level of interest rates. Since these products involve mortality as well as financial risks, we present an approach that introduces stochastic models for insurance products through stochastic interest rate models. Similar to Black et al. [Black, Fisher, Derman, Emanuel, Toy, William, 1990. A one-factor model of interest rates and its application to treasury bond options. Financ. Anal. J. 46 (January-February), 33-39], we assume that the premiums and volatilities of standard insurance products are given exogenously. We then project insurance prices to extract underlying martingale probability structures. Numerical examples on variable annuities are provided to illustrate the implementation of this method.     

Pricing of Ratchet equity-indexed annuities under stochastic interest rates

We consider the valuation of simple and compound Ratchet equity-indexed annuities (EIAs) in the presence of stochastic interest rates. We assume that the equity index follows a geometric Brownian motion and the short rate follows the extended Vasicek model. Under a given forward measure, we obtain an explicit multivariate normal characterization for multiple log-returns on the equity index. Using such a characterization, closed-form price formulas are derived for both simple and compound Ratchet EIAs. An efficient Monte Carlo simulation scheme is also established to overcome the computational difficulties resulting from the evaluation of high-dimensional multivariate normal cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) embedded in the price formulas as well as the consideration of additional complex contract features. Finally, numerical results are provided to illustrate the computational efficiency of our simulation scheme and the effects of various model and contract parameters on pricing.     

The pricing of Asian options under stochastic interest rates

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of stochastic interest rates on the pricing of Asian options. It is shown that a stochastic, in contrast to a deterministic, development of the term structure of interest rates has a significant influence. The price of the underlying asset, e.g. a stock or oil, and the prices of bonds are assumed to follow correlated two-dimensional Itô processes. The averages considered in the Asian options are calculated on a discrete time grid, e.g. all closing prices on Wednesdays during the lifetime of the contract. The value of an Asian option will be obtained through the application of Monte Carlo simulation, and for this purpose the stochastic processes for the basic assets need not be severely restricted. However, to make comparison with published results originating from models with deterministic interest rates, we will stay within the setting of a Gaussian framework.     

A multiobjective evolutionary approach for linearly constrained project selection under uncertainty

In the project selection problem a decision maker is required to allocate limited resources among an available set of competing projects. These projects could arise, although not exclusively, in an R&D, information technology or capital budgeting context. We propose an evolutionary method for project selection problems with partially funded projects, multiple (stochastic) objectives, project interdependencies (in the objectives), and a linear structure for resource constraints. The method is based on posterior articulation of preferences and is able to approximate the efficient frontier composed of stochastically nondominated solutions. We compared the method with the stochastic parameter space investigation method (PSI) and illustrate it by means of an R&D portfolio problem under uncertainty based on Monte Carlo simulation.     

Periodicity of equilibrium structures in a time dependent markov model under stochastic environment

The problem of periodicity for a non–homogeneous Markov model in a stochastic environment is studied. The stochastic concept is established through the notion of optional scenarios applied on the transition process. It is proved that the sequence of so–called aggregate structures follows a certain periodic pattern that can split into converging subsequences according to alternative policies. These limits are highly influenced by the different scenarios utilized in the model, but always lie on a convex region that also depends on the pool of alternatives.     

American options and stochastic interest rates

We study finite-maturity American equity options in a stochastic mean-reverting diffusive interest rate framework. We allow for a non-zero correlation between the innovations driving the equity price and the interest rate. Importantly, we also allow for the interest rate to assume negative values, which is the case for some investment grade government bonds in Europe in recent years. In this setting we focus on American equity call and put options and characterize analytically their two-dimensional free boundary, i.e. the underlying equity and the interest rate values that trigger the optimal exercise of the option before maturity. We show that non-standard double continuation regions may appear, extending the findings documented in the literature in a constant interest rate framework. Moreover, we contribute by developing a bivariate discretization of the equity price and interest rate processes that converges in distribution as the time step shrinks. This discretization, described by a recombining quadrinomial tree, allows us to compute American equity options’ prices and to analyze their free boundaries with respect to time and current interest rate. Finally, we document the existence of non-standard optimal exercise policies for American call options on a non-dividend-paying equity.

     

Indifference pricing of pure endowments and life annuities under stochastic hazard and interest rates

We study indifference pricing of mortality contingent claims in a fully stochastic model. We assume both stochastic interest rates and stochastic hazard rates governing the population mortality. In this setting we compute the indifference price charged by an insurer that uses exponential utility and sells k contingent claims to k independent but homogeneous individuals. Throughout we focus on the examples of pure endowments and temporary life annuities. We begin with a continuous-time model where we derive the linear pdes satisfied by the indifference prices and carry out extensive comparative statics. In particular, we show that the price-per-risk grows as more contracts are sold. We then also provide a more flexible discrete-time analog that permits general hazard rate dynamics. In the latter case we construct a simulation-based algorithm for pricing general mortality-contingent claims and illustrate with a numerical example.     

Adaptive dynamics and evolutionary stability

A dynamics for frequency dependent selection is proposed and applied to several biological examples. The relation with game dynamics and evolutionary stability is analyzed.     

Two-stage stochastic equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints: modeling and numerical schemes

This article presents a two-stage stochastic equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (SEPEC) model. Some source problems which motivate the model are discussed. Monte Carlo sampling method is applied to solve the SEPEC. Convergence analysis on the statistical estimators of Nash equilibria and Nash stationary points are presented.     

On evolutionary ray-projection dynamics

We introduce the ray-projection dynamics in evolutionary game theory by employing a ray projection of the relative fitness (vector) function, i.e., a projection unto the unit simplex along a ray through the origin. Ray-projection dynamics are weakly compatible in the terminology of Friedman (Econometrica 59:637–666, 1991), each of their interior fixed points is an equilibrium and each interior equilibrium is one of its fixed points. Furthermore, every interior evolutionarily stable strategy is an asymptotically stable fixed point, and every strict equilibrium is an evolutionarily stable state and an evolutionarily stable equilibrium. We also employ the ray-projection on a set of functions related to the relative fitness function and show that several well-known evolutionary dynamics can be obtained in this manner.     

An incremental bundle method for portfolio selection problem under second-order stochastic dominance

Numerical Algorithms - We propose a preconditioner to accelerate the convergence of the GMRES iterative method for solving the system of linear equations obtained from discretize-then-optimize...     

A note on immunization under a general stochastic equilibrium model of the term structure

The paper investigates the actuarial immunization problem under recent stochastic equilibrium models for the term structure of interest rates developed in the theory of finance, thereby generalizing results of Boyle (1978, 1980).     

Pricing long-dated insurance contracts with stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility

We consider the pricing of long-dated insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility. In particular, we focus on the valuation of insurance options with long-term equity or foreign exchange exposures. Our modeling framework extends the stochastic volatility model of Schöbel and Zhu (1999) by including stochastic interest rates. Moreover, we allow all driving model factors to be instantaneously correlated with each other, i.e. we allow for a general correlation structure between the instantaneous interest rates, the volatilities and the underlying stock returns. As insurance products often incorporate long-term exposures, they are typically more sensitive to changes in the interest rates, volatility and currencies. Therefore, having the flexibility to correlate the underlying asset price with both the stochastic volatility and the stochastic interest rates, yields a realistic model which is of practical importance for the pricing and hedging of such long-term contracts. We show that European options, typically used for the calibration of the model to market prices, and forward starting options can be priced efficiently and in closed-form by means of Fourier inversion techniques. We extensively discuss the numerical implementation of these pricing formulas, allowing for a fast and accurate valuation of European and forward starting options. The model will be especially useful for the pricing and risk management of insurance contracts and other exotic derivatives involving long-term maturities.     

Pricing long-dated insurance contracts with stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility

We consider the pricing of long-dated insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility. In particular, we focus on the valuation of insurance options with long-term equity or foreign exchange exposures. Our modeling framework extends the stochastic volatility model of Schöbel and Zhu (1999) by including stochastic interest rates. Moreover, we allow all driving model factors to be instantaneously correlated with each other, i.e. we allow for a general correlation structure between the instantaneous interest rates, the volatilities and the underlying stock returns. As insurance products often incorporate long-term exposures, they are typically more sensitive to changes in the interest rates, volatility and currencies. Therefore, having the flexibility to correlate the underlying asset price with both the stochastic volatility and the stochastic interest rates, yields a realistic model which is of practical importance for the pricing and hedging of such long-term contracts. We show that European options, typically used for the calibration of the model to market prices, and forward starting options can be priced efficiently and in closed-form by means of Fourier inversion techniques. We extensively discuss the numerical implementation of these pricing formulas, allowing for a fast and accurate valuation of European and forward starting options. The model will be especially useful for the pricing and risk management of insurance contracts and other exotic derivatives involving long-term maturities.