Stability Analysis of One Stage Stochastic Mathematical Programs with Complementarity Constraints

We study the quantitative stability of the solution sets, optimal value and M-stationary points of one stage stochastic mathematical programs with complementarity constraints when the underlying probability measure varies in some metric probability space. We show under moderate conditions that the optimal solution set mapping is upper semi-continuous and the optimal value function is Lipschitz continuous with respect to probability measure. We also show that the set of M-stationary points as a mapping is upper semi-continuous with respect to the variation of the probability measure. A particular focus is given to empirical probability measure approximation which is also known as sample average approximation (SAA). It is shown that optimal value and M-stationary points of SAA programs converge to their true counterparts with probability one (w.p.1.) at exponential rate as the sample size increases.     

Optimal threshold probability and expectation in semi-Markov decision processes

We consider undiscounted semi-Markov decision process with a target set and our main concern is a problem minimizing threshold probability. We formulate the problem as an infinite horizon case with a recurrent class. We show that an optimal value function is a unique solution to an optimality equation and there exists a stationary optimal policy. Also several value iteration methods and a policy improvement method are given in our model. Furthermore, we investigate a relationship between threshold probabilities and expectations for total rewards.     

Optimal investment and reinsurance for an insurer under Markov-modulated financial market

This study examines optimal investment and reinsurance policies for an insurer with the classical surplus process. It assumes that the financial market is driven by a drifted Brownian motion with coefficients modulated by an external Markov process specified by the solution to a stochastic differential equation. The goal of the insurer is to maximize the expected terminal utility. This paper derives the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation associated with the control problem using a dynamic programming method. When the insurer admits an exponential utility function, we prove that there exists a unique and smooth solution to the HJB equation. We derive the explicit optimal investment policy by solving the HJB equation. We can also find that the optimal reinsurance policy optimizes a deterministic function. We also obtain the upper bound for ruin probability in finite time for the insurer when the insurer adopts optimal policies.     

Random walk search procedures for reliability optimization of systems with fault tolerance

In this paper we develop two efficient discrete stochastic search methods based on random walk procedure for maximizing system reliability subjected to imperfect fault coverage where uncovered component failures cause immediate system failure, even in the presence of adequate redundancy. The first search method uses a sequential sampling procedure with fixed boundaries at each iteration. We show that this search process satisfies local balance equations and its equilibrium distribution gives most weight to the optimal solution. We also show that the solution that has been visited most often in the first m iterations converges almost surely to the optimal solution. The second search method uses a sequential sampling procedure with increasing boundaries at each iteration. We show that if the increase occurs slower than a certain rate, this search process will converge to the optimal set with probability 1. We consider the system where reliability cannot be evaluated exactly but must be estimated through Monte Carlo simulation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating model uncertainty into optimal insurance contract design

In stochastic optimization models, the optimal solution heavily depends on the selected probability model for the scenarios. However, the scenario models are typically chosen on the basis of statistical estimates and are therefore subject to model error. We demonstrate here how the model uncertainty can be incorporated into the decision making process. We use a nonparametric approach for quantifying the model uncertainty and a minimax setup to find model-robust solutions. The method is illustrated by a risk management problem involving the optimal design of an insurance contract.     

Optimal design by a homotopy method

An optimal design problem is formulated as a system of nonlinear equations rather than the extremum of a functional. Based on a new homotopy method, an algorithm is developed for solving the nonlinear system which is globally convergent with probability one. Since no convexity is required, the nonlinear system may have more than one solution. The algorithm will produce an optimal design solution for a given starting point. For most engineering problems, the initial prototype design is already well conceived and close to the global optimal solution. Such a starting point usually leads to the optimal design by the homotopy method, even though Newton's method may diverge from that starting point. A simple example is given.     

带有止步和中途退出的优先权排队系统

研究了一个带有止步和中途退出的优先权排队系统,其中系统中有两类顾客,第一类顾客具有优先权,而且可能中途退出,第二类顾客可能止步和中途退出.首先,建立了系统稳态概率满足的方程组.其次,采用分块矩阵的方法得到了两类顾客的稳态分布,并且得到了系统中两类顾客的的平均队长、平均中途退出率等性能指标.最后,进行了相应的性能分析与比较,为系统的优化设计提供了参考.     

Optimal reinsurance under the mean–variance premium principle to minimize the probability of ruin

We consider the problem of minimizing the probability of ruin by purchasing reinsurance whose premium is computed according to the mean–variance premium principle, a combination of the expected-value and variance premium principles. We derive closed-form expressions of the optimal reinsurance strategy and the corresponding minimum probability of ruin under the diffusion approximation of the classical Cramér–Lundberg risk process perturbed by a diffusion. We find an explicit expression for the reinsurance strategy that maximizes the adjustment coefficient for the classical risk process perturbed by a diffusion. Also, for this risk process, we use stochastic Perron’s method to prove that the minimum probability of ruin is the unique viscosity solution of its Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation with appropriate boundary conditions. Finally, we prove that, under an appropriate scaling of the classical risk process, the minimum probability of ruin converges to the minimum probability of ruin under the diffusion approximation.     

基于可信性分布的投资组合问题的一种混合智能方法

研究了模糊环境下基于效用函数的有效资产投资组合的收益率模型,模型建立在可信性分布的基础上,而不是概率分布或可能性分布基础上.给出模糊环境下基于可信性分布的n种资产的最优投资组合问题的混合智能算法以寻找某种效用函数意义下的最优组合.并以实例仿真说明该方法的有效性.     

由常规故障和临界人为错误引起系统故障的可修复系统稳态解的最优控制

针对由由常规故障和临界人为错误引起系统故障的可修复系统的模型,以范数指标泛函作为衡量系统可控性的标准,利用Banach空间理论讨论系统稳态解达到预期概率分布的最优控制问题,给出了其最优解存在唯一性.     

Method of Best Successive Approximations for Nonlinear Operators

We present a new approach to the approximation of nonlinear operators in probability spaces. The approach is based on a combination of the specific iterative procedure and the best approximation problem solution with a quadratic approximant. We show that the combination of these new techniques allow us to build a computationally efficient and flexible method. The algorithm of the method and its application to the optimal filtering of stochastic signals are given.     

Optimal models with maximizing probability of first achieving target value in the preceding stages

Decision makers often face the need of performance guarantee with some sufficiently high probability. Such problems can be modelled using a discrete time Markov decision process (MDP) with a probability criterion for the first achieving target value. The objective is to find a policy that maximizes the probability of the total discounted reward exceeding a target value in the preceding stages. We show that our formulation cannot be described by former models with standard criteria. We provide the properties of the objective functions, optimal value functions and optimal policies. An algorithm for computing the optimal policies for the finite horizon case is given. In this stochastic stopping model, we prove that there exists an optimal deterministic and stationary policy and the optimality equation has a unique solution. Using perturbation analysis, we approximate general models and prove the existence of e-optimal policy for finite state space. We give an example for the reliability of the satellite sy     

两不同部件并联可修系统稳态解的最优控制

针对修复时间服从任意分布的两不同部件并联可修系统的模型,以泛数指标泛函作为衡量系统可控性的标准,利用Banach空间理论讨论了系统稳态解达到预期概率分布的最优控制问题,给出了其最优解的存在唯一性.     

Implementable Algorithm for Stochastic Optimization Using Sample Average Approximations

We develop an implementable algorithm for stochastic optimization problems involving probability functions. Such problems arise in the design of structural and mechanical systems. The algorithm consists of a nonlinear optimization algorithm applied to sample average approximations and a precision-adjustment rule. The sample average approximations are constructed using Monte Carlo simulations or importance sampling techniques. We prove that the algorithm converges to a solution with probability one and illustrate its use by an example involving a reliability-based optimal design.     

Some theoretical implications of local optimization

This paper presents some theoretical results concerning the effectiveness of an approximate technique, known as local optimization, as applied to a wide class of problems.First, conditions are described under which the technique ensures exact solutions. Then, in regard to cases in which these conditions cannot be met in practice, a method is presented for estimating the probability that the approximate (locally optimal) solution delivered by such a technique is in fact the exact (globally optimal) solution.This probability may be viewed as a possible criterion of effectiveness in the design of neighborhoods for specific local optimization algorithms.     

求解无线传感器网络路由问题的蚁群最优化算法及其收敛性

首先将无线传感器网络的路由问题转化成求解最小Steiner树问题,然后给出了求解无线传感器网络路由的蚁群优化算法,并对算法的收敛性进行了证明．最后对找到最优解后信息素值的变化进行了分析．即在限制信息素取值的条件下,当迭代次数充分大时,该算法能以任意接近于1的概率找到最优解,并且当最优解找到后,最优树边上的信息素单调增加,而最优解以外边上的信息素在有限步达到最小值．     

Regularization methods for optimization problems with probabilistic constraints

We analyze nonlinear stochastic optimization problems with probabilistic constraints on nonlinear inequalities with random right hand sides. We develop two numerical methods with regularization for their numerical solution. The methods are based on first order optimality conditions and successive inner approximations of the feasible set by progressive generation of p-efficient points. The algorithms yield an optimal solution for problems involving α-concave probability distributions. For arbitrary distributions, the algorithms solve the convex hull problem and provide upper and lower bounds for the optimal value and nearly optimal solutions. The methods are compared numerically to two cutting plane methods.     

Estimation of an optimal solution of a LP problem with unknown objective function

We consider a linear programming problem with unknown objective function. Random observations related to the unknown objective function are sequentially available. We define a stochastic algorithm, based on the simplex method, that estimates an optimal solution of the linear programming problem. It is shown that this algorithm converges with probability one to the set of optimal solutions and that its failure probability is of order inversely proportional to the sample size. We also introduce stopping criteria for the algorithm. The asymptotic normality of some suitably defined residuals is also analyzed. The proposed estimation algorithm is motivated by the stochastic approximation algorithms but it introduces a generalization of these techniques when the linear programming problem has several optimal solutions. The proposed algorithm is also close to the stochastic quasi-gradient procedures, though their usual assumptions are weakened.Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 90C05, 62L20, 90C15Acknowledgments. I would like to thank two unknown referees for their fruitful suggestions that have helped to improve the paper.     

A Subgradient Method Based on Gradient Sampling for Solving Convex Optimization Problems

Based on the gradient sampling technique, we present a subgradient algorithm to solve the nondifferentiable convex optimization problem with an extended real-valued objective function. A feature of our algorithm is the approximation of subgradient at a point via random sampling of (relative) gradients at nearby points, and then taking convex combinations of these (relative) gradients. We prove that our algorithm converges to an optimal solution with probability 1. Numerical results demonstrate that our algorithm performs favorably compared with existing subgradient algorithms on applications considered.