Affine representations of fractional processes with applications in mathematical finance

Fractional processes have gained popularity in financial modeling due to the dependence structure of their increments and the roughness of their sample paths. The non-Markovianity of these processes gives, however, rise to conceptual and practical difficulties in computation and calibration. To address these issues, we show that a certain class of fractional processes can be represented as linear functionals of an infinite dimensional affine process. This can be derived from integral representations similar to those of Carmona, Coutin, Montseny, and Muravlev. We demonstrate by means of several examples that this allows one to construct tractable financial models with fractional features.     

Computable infinite-dimensional filters with applications to discretized diffusion processes

Let us consider a pair signal–observation ((_xn,_yn),n≥0)$((x_n,y_n),n\ge 0)$ where the unobserved signal (_xn)$\left(x_n\right)$ is a Markov chain and the observed component is such that, given the whole sequence (_xn)$\left(x_n\right)$, the random variables (_yn)$\left(y_n\right)$ are independent and the conditional distribution of _yn$y_n$ only depends on the corresponding state variable _xn$x_n$. The main problems raised by these observations are the prediction and filtering of (_xn)$\left(x_n\right)$. We introduce sufficient conditions allowing us to obtain computable filters using mixtures of distributions. The filter system may be finite or infinite-dimensional. The method is applied to the case where the signal _xn=_XnΔ$x_n=X_{n\Delta }$ is a discrete sampling of a one-dimensional diffusion process: Concrete models are proved to fit in our conditions. Moreover, for these models, exact likelihood inference based on the observation (_y0,…,_yn)$(y_0,\dots ,y_n)$ is feasible.     

The conversion option in life insurance

This paper introduces an option that has been provided by life insurance companies extensively but has not been discussed in much in the literature; the conversion option. By constructing a valuation model, we first confirm that the conversion option may have positive values. We further find that the value of this option highly depends on the difference of the expected and actual mortality pattern after the insured individual converts his/her policy. Meanwhile, considering the general trend of mortality improvement, we incorporate this trend by applying the Lee-Carter model, hoping to provide a reasonable and fair valuation of the conversion option.     

Asymmetric skew Bessel processes and their applications to finance

In this paper, we extend the Harrison and Shepp's construction of the skew Brownian motion (1981) and we obtain a diffusion similar to the two-dimensional Bessel process with speed and scale densities discontinuous at one point. Natural generalizations to multi-dimensional and fractional order Bessel processes are then discussed as well as invariance properties. We call this family of diffusions asymmetric skew Bessel processes in opposition to skew Bessel processes as defined in Barlow et al. [On Walsh's Brownian motions, Séminaire de Probabilitiés XXIII, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, vol. 1372, Springer, Berlin, New York, 1989, pp. 275–293]. We present factorizations involving (asymmetric skew) Bessel processes with random time. Finally, applications to the valuation of perpetuities and Asian options are proposed.     

Determinantal martingales and noncolliding diffusion processes

Two aspects of noncolliding diffusion processes have been extensively studied. One of them is the fact that they are realized as harmonic Doob transforms of absorbing particle systems in the Weyl chambers. Another aspect is integrability in the sense that any spatio-temporal correlation function can be expressed by a determinant. The purpose of the present paper is to clarify the connection between these two aspects. We introduce a notion of determinantal martingale and prove that, if the system has determinantal-martingale representation, then it is determinantal. In order to demonstrate the direct connection between the two aspects, we study three processes.     

Risk comparison of different bonus distribution approaches in participating life insurance

The fair pricing of explicit and implicit options in life insurance products has received broad attention in the academic literature over the past years. Participating life insurance (PLI) contracts have been the focus especially. These policies are typically characterized by a term life insurance, a minimum interest rate guarantee, and bonus participation rules with regard to the insurer’s asset returns or reserve situation. Researchers replicate these bonus policies quite differently. We categorize and formally present the most common PLI bonus distribution mechanisms. These bonus models closely mirror the Danish, German, British, and Italian regulatory framework. Subsequently, we perform a comparative analysis of the different bonus models with regard to risk valuation. We calibrate contract parameters so that the compared contracts have a net present value of zero and the same safety level as the initial position, using risk-neutral valuation. Subsequently, we analyze the effect of changes in the asset volatility and in the initial reserve amount (per contract) on the value of the default put option (DPO), while keeping all other parameters constant. Our results show that DPO values obtained with the PLI bonus distribution model of Bacinello (2001), which replicates the Italian regulatory framework, are most sensitive to changes in volatility and initial reserves.     

Lévy processes and their subordination in matrix Lie groups

Lévy processes in matrix Lie groups are studied. Subordination (random time change) is used to show that quasi-invariance of the Brownian motion in a Lie group induces absolute continuity of the laws of the corresponding pure jump processes. These results are applied to several examples which are discussed in detail.     

Pompeiu sets in compact Heisenberg manifolds

A necessary and sufficient condition is presented for a set to be a Pompeiu subset of any compact homogeneous space with a finite invariant measure. The condition, which is expressed in terms of the intertwining operators of each primary summand of the quasi-regular representation, is then interpreted in the case of the compact Heisenberg manifolds. Examples are presented demonstrating that the condition to be Pompeiu in these manifolds is quite different from the corresponding condition for a torus of the same dimension. This provides a contrast with the existing comparison between the Heisenberg group itself and Euclidean space in terms of Pompeiu sets. In addition, the closed linear span of all translates of any square integrable function on any compact homogeneous space is determined.     

Classical and quantum Heisenberg groups, their representations and applications

This paper is a survey on classical Heisenberg groups and algebras, q-deformed Heisenberg algebras, q-oscillator algebras, their representations and applications. Describing them, we tried, for the reader's convenience, to explain where the q-deformed case is close to the classical one, and where there are principal differences. Different realizations of classical Heisenberg groups, their geometrical aspects, and their representations are given. Moreover, relations of Heisenberg groups to other linear groups are described. Intertwining operators for different (Schrödinger, Fock, compact) realizations of unitary irreducible representations of Heisenberg groups are given in explicit form. Classification of irreducible representations and representations of the q-oscillator algebra is derived for the cases when q is not a root of unity and when q is a root of unity. The Fock representation of the q-oscillator algebra is studied in detail. In particular, q-coherent states are described. Spectral properties of some operators of the Fock representations of q-oscillator algebras are given. Some of applications of Heisenberg groups and algebras, q-Heisenberg algebras and q-oscillator algebras are briefly described.     

On the optimal design of insurance contracts with guarantees

The paper analyzes insurance contracts where the benefits of the insured depend on the performance of an investment strategy and which guarantee a certain interest rate on the contributions made by the insured. The insured has to decide simultaneously on the investment strategy and the guarantee scheme. For a CRRA insured and in a BS economy, the optimal combination is given by a constant mix strategy and the contribution guarantee scheme. In case the insured has a subsistence level, the CPPI strategy turns out to be optimal for arbitrary schemes. We illustrate our results by numerical examples and analyze the utility losses of a CRRA insured due to the use of a suboptimal combination of investment strategy and guarantee scheme.     

A joint valuation of premium payment and surrender options in participating life insurance contracts

In addition to an interest rate guarantee and annual surplus participation, life insurance contracts typically embed the right to stop premium payments during the term of the contract (paid-up option), to resume payments later (resumption option), or to terminate the contract early (surrender option). Terminal guarantees are on benefits payable upon death, survival and surrender. The latter are adapted after exercising the options. A model framework including these features and an algorithm to jointly value the premium payment and surrender options is presented. In a first step, the standard principles of risk-neutral evaluation are applied and the policyholder is assumed to use an economically rational exercise strategy. In a second step, option value sensitivity on different contract parameters, benefit adaptation mechanisms, and exercise behavior is analyzed numerically. The two latter are the main drivers for the option value.     

Analytical approximations for prices of swap rate dependent embedded options in insurance products

Life insurance products have profit sharing features in combination with guarantees. These so-called embedded options are often dependent on or approximated by forward swap rates. In practice, these kinds of options are mostly valued by Monte Carlo simulations. However, for risk management calculations and reporting processes, lots of valuations are needed. Therefore, a more efficient method to value these options would be helpful. In this paper analytical approximations are derived for these kinds of options, based on an underlying multi-factor Gaussian interest rate model. The analytical approximation for options with direct payment is almost exact while the approximation for compounding options is also satisfactory. In addition, the proposed analytical approximation can be used as a control variate in Monte Carlo valuation of options for which no analytical approximation is available, such as similar options with management actions. Furthermore, it’s also possible to construct analytical approximations when returns on additional assets (such as equities) are part of the profit sharing rate.     

Risk-neutral valuation of participating life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate environment

Over the last years, the valuation of life insurance contracts using concepts from financial mathematics has become a popular research area for actuaries as well as financial economists. In particular, several methods have been proposed of how to model and price participating policies, which are characterized by an annual interest rate guarantee and some bonus distribution rules. However, despite the long terms of life insurance products, most valuation models allowing for sophisticated bonus distribution rules and the inclusion of frequently offered options assume a simple Black–Scholes setup and, more specifically, deterministic or even constant interest rates.We present a framework in which participating life insurance contracts including predominant kinds of guarantees and options can be valuated and analyzed in a stochastic interest rate environment. In particular, the different option elements can be priced and analyzed separately. We use Monte Carlo and discretization methods to derive the respective values.The sensitivity of the contract and guarantee values with respect to multiple parameters is studied using the bonus distribution schemes as introduced in [Bauer, D., Kiesel, R., Kling, A., Ruß, J., 2006. Risk-neutral valuation of participating life insurance contracts. Insurance: Math. Econom. 39, 171–183]. Surprisingly, even though the value of the contract as a whole is only moderately affected by the stochasticity of the short rate of interest, the value of the different embedded options is altered considerably in comparison to the value under constant interest rates. Furthermore, using a simplified asset portfolio and empirical parameter estimations, we show that the proportion of stock within the insurer’s asset portfolio substantially affects the value of the contract.     

Large time estimates for heat kernels in nilpotent Lie groups

The aim of this paper is to obtain some estimate for large time for the Heat kernel corresponding to a sub-Laplacian with drift term on a nilpotent Lie group. We also obtain a uniform Harnack inequality for a “bounded” family of sub-Laplacians with drift in the first commutator of the Lie algebra of the nilpotent group.     

Theory and applications of multivariate self-normalized processes

Multivariate self-normalized processes, for which self-normalization consists of multiplying by the inverse of a positive definite matrix (instead of dividing by a positive random variable as in the scalar case), are ubiquitous in statistical applications. In this paper we make use of a technique called “pseudo-maximization” to derive exponential and moment inequalities, and bounds for boundary crossing probabilities, for these processes. In addition, Strassen-type laws of the iterated logarithm are developed for multivariate martingales, self-normalized by their quadratic or predictable variations.     

Bayesian modelling of financial guarantee insurance

In this paper we model the claim process of financial guarantee insurance, and predict the pure premium and the required amount of risk capital. The data used are from the financial guarantee system of the Finnish statutory pension scheme. The losses in financial guarantee insurance may be devastating during an economic depression (i.e., deep recession). This indicates that the economic business cycle, and in particular depressions, must be taken into account in modelling the claim amounts in financial guarantee insurance. A Markov regime-switching model is used to predict the frequency and severity of future depression periods. The claim amounts are predicted using a transfer function model where the predicted growth rate of the real GNP is an explanatory variable. The pure premium and initial risk reserve are evaluated on the basis of the predictive distribution of claim amounts. Bayesian methods are applied throughout the modelling process. For example, estimation is based on posterior simulation with the Gibbs sampler, and model adequacy is assessed by posterior predictive checking. Simulation results show that the required amount of risk capital is high, even though depressions are an infrequent phenomenon.     

Multipliers for a distinguished Laplacean on solvable extensions ofH-type groups

Let be a distinguished Laplacean on a solvable extensionS of anH-type group. We give sufficient conditions on the multiplierm so that the operatorm() is of type (p, p) for 1<p< and is of weak type (1, 1).     

Fair valuation of insurance contracts under Lévy process specifications

The valuation of options embedded in insurance contracts using concepts from financial mathematics (in particular, from option pricing theory), typically referred to as fair valuation, has recently attracted considerable interest in academia as well as among practitioners. The aim of this article is to investigate the valuation of participating and unit-linked life insurance contracts, which are characterized by embedded rate guarantees and bonus distribution rules. In contrast to the existing literature, our approach models the dynamics of the reference portfolio by means of an exponential Lévy process. Our analysis sheds light on the impact of the dynamics of the reference portfolio on the fair contract value for several popular types of insurance policies. Moreover, it helps to assess the potential risk arising from misspecification of the stochastic process driving the reference portfolio.     

The influence of corporate taxes on pricing and capital structure in property-liability insurance

A change in the corporate tax level can have a significant impact on rate making and capital structure for insurance companies. The purpose of this paper is to study this effect on competitive equity-premium combinations for different asset and liability models while retaining a fixed safety level. This is a crucial consideration as a change in the tax rate leads, in general, to a different risk of insolvency. Hence, fixing the safety level serves to isolate the effect of taxes without shifting the insurer’s risk situation whenever taxes are varied. The model framework includes stochastic assets as well as stochastic claims costs. We further compare the results for liability models with and without a jump component. Insurance rate making is conducted using option pricing theory.     

Long-tail longitudinal modeling of insurance company expenses

The insurance industry is known to have high operating expenses in the financial services sector. Insurers, investors and regulators are interested in models to understand the behavior of expenses. However, the current practice ignores skewness, occasional negative values as well as their temporal dependence.Addressing these three features, this paper develops a longitudinal model of insurance company expenses that can be used for prediction, to identify unusual behavior, and to measure firm efficiency. Specifically, we use a three-parameter asymmetric Laplace density for the marginal distribution of insurers’ expenses in each year. Copula functions are employed to accommodate their temporal dependence. As a function of explanatory variables, the location parameter allows us to analyze an insurer’s expenses in light of the firm’s characteristics. Our model can be interpreted as a longitudinal quantile regression.The analysis is performed using property-casualty insurance company data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners of years 2001-2006. Due to the long-tailed nature of insurers’ expenses, two alternative approaches are proposed to improve the performance of the longitudinal quantile regression model: rescaling and transformation. Predictive densities are derived that allow one to compare the predictions for individual insurers in a hold-out-sample. Both predictive models are shown to be reasonable with the rescaling method outperforming the transformation method. Compared with standard longitudinal models, our model is shown to be superior in identifying insurers’ unusual behavior.