Predicting default of a small business using different definitions of financial distress

The paper introduces a number of risk-rating models for UK small businesses applying an accounting-based approach, which uses financial ratios to predict corporate bankruptcy. An enhancement to these models is considered through features typical to retail credit risk modelling. A common problem of default prediction consists in the relatively small number of bankruptcies or real defaults available for model-building. In order to expand the ‘default’ group beyond bankrupt companies, the paper considers adopting four different definitions of ‘a failing business’ by investigating combinations of financial distress levels. The impact of each default definition on the choice of predictor variables and on the model's predictive accuracy is explored. In addition, the paper examines the value of categorizing financial ratios used as predictor variables.     

Methodological comparison between DEA (data envelopment analysis) and DEA–DA (discriminant analysis) from the perspective of bankruptcy assessment

This study compares DEA (data envelopment analysis) with DEA–DA (discriminant analysis) in terms of bankruptcy assessment. Recently, many DEA researchers propose a use of DEA as a quick-and-easy tool to assess corporate bankruptcy. Meanwhile, other DEA researchers discuss a use of DEA–DA for bankruptcy-based financial analysis. The two groups are very different from the conventional use of DEA because we have long applied DEA to the measurement of operational performance, or productivity analysis. The two research groups open up a new application area (bankruptcy-based financial assessment) for DEA. This study discusses methodological strengths and weaknesses of DEA and DEA–DA from the perspective of corporate failure. The proposed comparative analysis has the three main criteria: (a) how to handle negative data in financial variables, (b) how to handle data imbalance between default and non-default firms, and (c) how to identify a failure process over time. This study finds that DEA is a managerial tool for the initial assessment of corporate failure and DEA is useful for busy corporate leaders and financial managers. In contrast, DEA–DA is useful for researchers and individuals who are interested in the detailed assessment of bankruptcy and its failure process in a time horizon.     

DEA as a tool for bankruptcy assessment: A comparative study with logistic regression technique

This paper proposes data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a quick-and-easy tool for assessing corporate bankruptcy. DEA is a non-parametric method that measures weight estimates (not parameter estimates) of a classification function for separating default and non-default firms. Using a recent sample of large corporate failures in the United States, we examine the capability of DEA in assessing corporate bankruptcy by comparing it with logistic regression (LR). We find that DEA outperforms LR in evaluating bankruptcy out-of-sample. This feature of DEA is appealing and has practical relevance for investors. Another advantage of DEA over LR is that it does not have assumptions associated with statistical and econometric methods. Furthermore, DEA does not need a large sample size for bankruptcy evaluation, usually required by such statistical and econometric approaches. The need for such a large sample size is a significant disadvantage to practitioners when investment decisions are made using small samples. DEA can bypass such a difficulty related to a sample size. Thus, DEA is a practically appealing method for bankruptcy assessment.     

Predicting the event and time horizon of bankruptcy using financial ratios and the maturity schedule of long-term debt

We study the problem of simultaneous and coherent assessment the probability of a firm’s bankruptcy at various time horizons in future. In contrast with usual (one-period) formulations of the problem, such multi-period formulation better matches the nature of bankruptcy process (bankruptcy occurs in time) and allows an easier and more natural incorporation of bankruptcy (default) prognoses in valuation of risky debt and equity, optimization of corporate capital structure etc. The study uses a new mathematical apparatus—multi-alternative decision rules of statistical decision theory. We investigate a new type of predictive variables that can be extracted from the maturity schedule of a firm’s long-term debt. The study develops Bayesian-type forecasting rules that use both maturity schedule factors and traditional financial ratios. These rules noticeably enhance bankruptcy prediction (compared with the familiar one-period Z-score rules of Altman) for bankruptcy within the first 1, 2 or 3 years. Predictive factors derived from schedule information enhance bankruptcy prediction at distant time horizons.     

Identifying distress among banks prior to a major crisis using non-oriented super-SBM

We illustrate how data envelopment analysis (DEA) can be used as a forward-looking method to flag bank holding companies (BHCs) likely to become distressed. Various financial performance models are tested in the period leading up to the recent global financial crisis. Results generally support DEA’s discriminatory and predictive power, suggesting that it can identify distressed banks up to 2 years in advance. Robustness tests reveal that DEA has a stable efficient frontier and its discriminatory and predictive powers prevail even after data perturbations. DEA can be used as a preliminary off-site screening tool by regulators, by business managers to ascertain their standing among competitors, and by investors. Attention by regulators can be further directed at potentially distressed banks as some of them would be candidates for closer monitoring. In conclusion, DEA may be useful in making economic decisions because there is an identifiable link between inefficiency and financial distress. To the best of our knowledge, application of DEA to predict financial distress among BHCs prior to a major crisis has not been published.     

An enhanced DEA model for decomposition of technical efficiency in banking

Past studies about the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to banking performance often follow the concept of technical efficiency (TE) and/or the productivity defined by the TE. In this paper, we propose an enhanced DEA model, based on a modification of the directional distance function by simultaneously but disproportionately seeking the maximum expansion of each desirable output and contraction of each undesirable output for efficiency measurement, which allows us to decompose the TE into operating efficiency (OPE) and risk management efficiency (RME). The OPE characterizes the ability of a bank to expand the room for profits through its regular business activities, while the RME describes a bank’s ability in risk management activities for sustaining operations. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model, a case study of Taiwan’s domestic commercial banks is presented. The major findings are that operating inefficiency is the main source of technical inefficiency, although banks with a higher OPE generally also have a higher RME. Banks subordinate to financial holding companies are more efficient in both OPE and RME than stand-alone banks.     

Measurement of Returns to Scale and Damages to Scale for DEA-based operational and environmental assessment: How to manage desirable (good) and undesirable (bad) outputs?

Environmental assessment is increasingly important in preventing various types of pollutions. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been long used as an operational performance measure, but we have insufficiently explored the use of DEA for environmental assessment. This study explores a new use of DEA for the environmental assessment in which outputs are classified into desirable (good) and undesirable (bad) outputs. Such an output separation is important in the DEA-based environmental assessment. This study extends the use of DEA to the measurement of both Returns to Scale (RTS) for desirable outputs and Damages to Scale (DTS) for undesirable outputs. A Range-Adjusted Measure (RAM) is used as a DEA model for this study because the non-radial model can easily combine the two types of outputs in a unified treatment. All the mathematical features regarding the RAM-based RTS/DTS measurement are first discussed from the operational and environmental performance in a separate treatment. Then, this study combines the two performance measures as a unified measure. The RAM-based RTS/DTS is mathematically explored from the unified measure for operational and environmental performance.     

Finding strong defining hyperplanes of Production Possibility Set

Production Possibility Set (PPS) is defined as the set of all inputs and outputs of a system in which inputs can produce outputs. Data Envelopment Analysis models implicitly use PPS to evaluate relative efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMUs). Although DEA models can determine the efficiency of a DMU, they cannot present efficient frontiers of PPS. In this paper, we propose a method for finding all Strong Defining Hyperplanes of PPS (SDHP). They are equations that form efficient surfaces. These equations are useful in Sensitivity and Stability Analysis, the status of Returns to Scale of a DMU, incorporating performance information into the efficient frontier analysis and so on.     

Diversification-consistent data envelopment analysis with general deviation measures

We propose new efficiency tests which are based on traditional DEA models and take into account portfolio diversification. The goal is to identify the investment opportunities that perform well without specifying our attitude to risk. We use general deviation measures as the inputs and return measures as the outputs. We discuss the choice of the set of investment opportunities including portfolios with limited number of assets. We compare the optimal values (efficiency scores) of all proposed tests leading to the relations between the sets of efficient opportunities. Strength of the tests is then discussed. We test the efficiency of 25 world financial indices using new DEA models with CVaR deviation measures.     

Variable selection in high‐dimensional regression: a nonparametric procedure for business failure prediction

Business failure prediction models are important in providing warning for preventing financial distress and giving stakeholders time to react in a timely manner to a crisis. The empirical approach to corporate distress analysis and forecasting has recently attracted new attention from financial institutions, academics, and practitioners. In fact, this field is as interesting today as it was in the 1930s, and over the last 80 years, a remarkable body of both theoretical and empirical studies on this topic has been published. Nevertheless, some issues are still under investigation, such as the selection of financial ratios to define business failure and the identification of an optimal subset of predictors. For this purpose, there exist a large number of methods that can be used, although their drawbacks are usually neglected in this context. Moreover, most variable selection procedures are based on some very strict assumptions (linearity and additivity) that make their application difficult in business failure prediction. This paper proposes to overcome these limits by selecting relevant variables using a nonparametric method named Rodeo that is consistent even when the aforementioned assumptions are not satisfied. We also compare Rodeo with two other variable selection methods (Lasso and Adaptive Lasso), and the empirical results demonstrate that our proposed procedure outperforms the others in terms of positive/negative predictive value and is able to capture the nonlinear effects of the selected variables. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An enhanced DEA Russell graph efficiency measure

The measurement of productive efficiency is an issue of great interest. Since Farrell (Farrell, M.J., 1957. Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 120, 253) implemented the first measure of technical efficiency, many researchers have developed new measures or have extended the already existing ones. The beginning of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) meant a new way of empirically measuring productive efficiency. Under some specific technologies, Farrell's measure was implemented giving rise to the first DEA models, CCR (Charnes, A., Cooper, W.W., Rhodes, E., 1978. European Journal of Operational Research 2, 429) and BCC (Banker, R.D., Charnes, A., Cooper, W.W., 1984. Management Science, 1078). The fact that these measures only account for radial inefficiency has motivated the development of the so-called Global Efficiency Measures (GEMs) (Cooper, W.W., Pastor, J.T., 1995. Working Paper, Departamento de Estadı́stica e Investigación Operativa, Universidad de Alicante, Alicante, Spain). In this paper we propose a new GEM inspired by the Russell Graph Measure of Technical Efficiency which avoids the computational and interpretative difficulties with this latter measure. Additionally, the new measure satisfies some other desirable properties.     

Financial statement analysis: A data envelopment analysis approach

Ratio analysis is a commonly used analytical tool for verifying the performance of a firm. While ratios are easy to compute, which in part explains their wide appeal, their interpretation is problematic, especially when two or more ratios provide conflicting signals. Indeed, ratio analysis is often criticized on the grounds of subjectivity, that is the analyst must pick and choose ratios in order to assess the overall performance of a firm.In this paper we demonstrate that Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) can augment the traditional ratio analysis. DEA can provide a consistent and reliable measure of managerial or operational efficiency of a firm. We test the null hypothesis that there is no relationship between DEA and traditional accounting ratios as measures of performance of a firm. Our results reject the null hypothesis indicating that DEA can provide information to analysts that is additional to that provided by traditional ratio analysis. We also apply DEA to the oil and gas industry to demonstrate how financial analysts can employ DEA as a complement to ratio analysis.     

Financial Applications of a Tabu Search Variable Selection Model

We illustrate how a comparatively new technique, a Tabu search variable selection model [Drezner, Marcoulides and Salhi (1999)], can be applied efficiently within finance when the researcher must select a subset of variables from among the whole set of explanatory variables under consideration. Several types of problems in finance, including corporate and personal bankruptcy prediction, mortgage and credit scoring, and the selection of variables for the Arbitrage Pricing Model, require the researcher to select a subset of variables from a larger set. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of the Tabu search variable selection model, we: (1) illustrate its efficiency in comparison to the main alternative search procedures, such as stepwise regression and the Maximum R 2 procedure, and (2) show how a version of the Tabu search procedure may be implemented when attempting to predict corporate bankruptcy. We accomplish (2) by indicating that a Tabu Search procedure increases the predictability of corporate bankruptcy by up to 10 percentage points in comparison to Altman's (1968) Z-Score model.     

Determining a sequence of targets in DEA

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) can be used for assessing the relative efficiency of a number of operating units, finding, for each inefficient unit, a target operating point lying on the efficient frontier. Most DEA models project an inefficient unit onto a most distant target, which makes its attainment more difficult. In this paper, we advocate determining a sequence of targets, each one within an appropriate, short distance of the preceding. The proposed Constant Returns to Scale approach has two interesting features: (a) the sequence of targets ends in the efficient frontier and (b) the final, efficient target is generally closer to the original unit than the one-step projection is.     

An equitable method for allocating fixed costs by using data envelopment analysis

This paper concerns the shared cost allocation problem by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is observed in practical applications such as public services and production processes. In the management context, the cost allocation problem tries to balance the different desires of two management layers: central manager and each sector manager. The cost can be assigned in an equitable way to the various Decision Making Units (DMUs). To achieve this goal, we present a new DEA-based method for dividing a fixed cost among DMUs. In the proposed method, the fixed cost is assigned to DMUs such that the efficiency measures and the Returns to Scale classifications of all DMUs before and after assigning the fixed cost remain unchanged. Also, the gaps among the costs allocated to DMUs will be minimized. The proposed method has the flexibility to consider the management standpoints. Finally, numerical results of an elucidatory example are furnished to demonstrate the applicability and reliability of our scheme.     

Bayesian kernel based classification for financial distress detection

Corporate credit granting is a key commercial activity of financial institutions nowadays. A critical first step in the credit granting process usually involves a careful financial analysis of the creditworthiness of the potential client. Wrong decisions result either in foregoing valuable clients or, more severely, in substantial capital losses if the client subsequently defaults. It is thus of crucial importance to develop models that estimate the probability of corporate bankruptcy with a high degree of accuracy. Many studies focused on the use of financial ratios in linear statistical models, such as linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression. However, the obtained error rates are often high. In this paper, Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) classifiers, also known as kernel Fisher discriminant analysis, are applied within the Bayesian evidence framework in order to automatically infer and analyze the creditworthiness of potential corporate clients. The inferred posterior class probabilities of bankruptcy are then used to analyze the sensitivity of the classifier output with respect to the given inputs and to assist in the credit assignment decision making process. The suggested nonlinear kernel based classifiers yield better performances than linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression when applied to a real-life data set concerning commercial credit granting to mid-cap Belgian and Dutch firms.     

上市公司远期财务危机预测研究

尽管各界对预测企业远期财务危机有着很大需求,该领域的研究一直被这个问题所困惑:究竟哪些指标含有预测企业远期财务危机的重要信息?本文利用财务报表时间序列数据和贝叶斯统计方法设计出了一个这样的指标,用该指标建立的上市公司财务危机预模型具有较高的远期预测正确率。     

Measuring efficiency and productivity in professional football teams: evidence from the English Premier League

Professional football clubs are unusual businesses, their performance judged on and off the field of play. This study is concerned with measuring the efficiency of clubs in the English Premier League. Information from clubs’ financial statements is used as a measure of corporate performance. To measure changes in efficiency and productivity the Malmquist non-parametric technique has been used. This is derived from the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) linear programming approach, with Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) being used to ensure the cohesion of the input–output variables. The study concludes that while clubs operate close to efficient levels for the assessed models, there is limited technological advance in their performance in terms of the displacement of the technological frontier. The research was supported by the Investigation Program of the Technical University of Cartagena (Spain) and by the Department of Sports Studies at the University of Stirling (Scotland, UK).     

Hybridizing principles of the Electre method with case-based reasoning for data mining: Electre-CBR-I and Electre-CBR-II

Electre is an important outranking method developed in the area of decision-aiding. Data mining is a vital developing technique that receives contributions from lots of disciplines such as databases, machine learning, information retrieval, statistics, and so on. Techniques in outranking approaches, e.g. Electre, could also contribute to the development of data mining. In this research, we address the following two issues: a) why and how to combine Electre with case-based reasoning (CBR) to generate corresponding hybrid models by extending the fundamental principles of Electre into CBR; b) the effect on predictive performance by employing evidence vetoing the assertion on the base of evidence supporting the assertion. The similarity measure of CBR is implemented by revising and fulfilling three basic ideas of Electre, i.e. assertion that two cases are indifferent, evidence supporting the assertion, and evidence vetoing the assertion. Two corresponding CBR models are constructed by combining principles of the Electre decision-aiding method with CBR. The first one, named Electre-CBR-I, derives from evidence supporting the assertion. The other one, named Electre-CBR-II, derives from both evidence supporting and evidence vetoing the assertion. Leave-one-out cross-validation and hold-out method are integrated to form 30-times hold-out method. In financial distress mining, data was collected from Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, ANOVA was employed to select features that are significantly different between companies in distress and health, 30-times hold-out method was used to assess predictive performance, and grid-search technique was utilized to search optimal parameters. Original data distributions were kept in the experiment. Empirical results of long-term financial distress prediction with 30 initial financial ratios and 135 initial pairs of samples indicate that Electre-CBR-I outperforms Electre-CBR-II and other comparative CBR models, and Electre-CBR-II outperforms the other comparative CBR models.     

An occurrence of multiple projections in DEA-based measurement of technical efficiency: Theoretical comparison among DEA models from desirable properties

This study discusses nine desirable properties that a measure of technical efficiency (TE) needs to satisfy from the perspective of production economics and optimization. Seven data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are theoretically compared from a viewpoint of nine TE criteria. All the seven DEA models suffer from a problem of multiple projections even though a unique projection for efficiency comparison is one of the nine desirable properties. Furthermore, all the DEA models violate the property on aggregation of inputs and outputs. Thus, the seven DEA models do not satisfy all desirable TE properties. In addition, the comparison provides us with the following guidelines: (a) The additive model violates all desirable TE properties. (b) Russell measure and SBM (=ERGM) perform as well as RAM as a non-radial measure. If we are interested in strict monotonicity, the two models outperform the other DEA models including RAM. In contrast, if we are interested in translation invariance, RAM is better than Russell measure and SBM (=ERGM). (c) The radial measures (CCR and BCC) have the property of linear homogeneity. (d) The CCR model is useful for measuring a frontier shift among different periods. (e) If a data set contains a negative value, RAM becomes a DEA model to handle the negative value because it has the property of translation invariance. After examining the desirable TE properties, this study proposes a new approach to deal with an occurrence of multiple projections. The proposed approach includes a test to examine an occurrence of multiple projections, a mathematical expression of a projection set, and a selection process of a unique reference set as the largest one covering all the possible reference sets.