Farm households’ rice production behavior in China under a separability assumption: A metaheuristic optimization approach

The production behavior of farm households has been a topic of interest for a long time. We explore the optimal production strategies from a household's perspective under the assumption of separability between consumption and production. The data used for this study come from farm households located in five provinces of China. To identify the impacts of various parameters on farmers' production behavior, optimal solutions and the households' actual production behaviors are compared. Results show that most of the households overinvested on farm land, labor force, materials, and machinery. Compared to existing production efficiency estimates, households, regardless of size, and exhibit different degrees of nonseparability. The sensitivity analysis shows a similar result, but finds that large households become more efficient if they have a higher production coefficient. The optimized result obtained in this paper not only provides farmers with decision‐support information on efficient resource allocation, but also helps policymakers to formulate better agricultural policies. Recommendations for Resource Managers A household production model is constructed to assess whether production and consumption behaviors are different among Chinese farmers. A genetic algorithm that belongs to a metaheuristic cluster is applied to search for the optimal solution, given the parameters obtained from using a ridge regression model. The following implications could be recommended based on the findings of the paper:

• The goodness of the convergence of the algorithm helps to find the optimal rice production decision, when facing a large number of input variables.
• The evidence that can support the separability among farm household's production behavior which to some degree supports nonseparability.
• As some of the external parameters, such as nonagricultural income, as well as farm scale, are increased, the optimal solution shows the separability among some households.
• Unless farm size is increased substantially, there is a need to support farmers in production behavior so that they can be efficient and profitable rather than just subsistent.

     

Optimal harvest strategy for even‐aged stands with price uncertainty and risk of natural disturbances

We present a reservation price model to examine the joint impacts of natural disturbances and stumpage price uncertainty on the optimal harvesting decision for even‐aged forest stands. We consider a landowner who manages a loblolly pine stand to produce timber and amenities, under age‐dependent risk of wildfires and uncertainty in future timber prices. We show that the incorporation of risk of wildfires decreases the optimal reservation prices. The inclusion of risk of wildfires leads to lower land values and reduces the mean harvest age compared with the case of no‐risk of wildfires. Higher economic gains are obtained with the reservation price strategy compared with the deterministic rotation age model—a difference in the land value of $2,326 ha^?1 (21%) between the two approaches. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Our adaptive harvest strategy shows that the incorporation of risk of wildfires decreases the optimal reservation prices compared with the case of no‐risk of wildfires.
• Low reservation prices—a price that makes the landowner indifferent between harvesting or waiting longer—result in lower economic benefits for landowners and potential conversions of lands to nonforest use.
• Forest management practices oriented to reduce the effects of catastrophic disturbances, for example, creating a more complex forest structure with different stand densities, become imperative to ensure the sustainability of forestlands in the US South.
• Our analysis also suggests that the valuation of forestry investments should consider not only the risk of catastrophic events but also uncertainty in future timber prices. Higher appraisals of land value are obtained when timber price uncertainty is explicitly recognized, providing financial incentives for landowners to invest in forestry.

     

WILDLIFE LOSSES IN KENYA: AN ANALYSIS OF CONSERVATION POLICY

ABSTRACT. Despite massive conservation efforts backed bysignificant international support, Kenya has lost some 44% of its large mammal fauna over the last 17 years. This catastrophic example of resource degradation stems from a mixture of policy, institutional and market failures. Policy failures include an over‐reliance on Command and Control (prohibition on consumptive use of wildlife, prohibition on use of resources within Protected Areas) without the ability to enforce compliance; subsidies to agricultural and livestock production which, by reducing marginal production costs to below social opportunitycosts, has caused the over‐conversion of rangelands to livestock and agricultural production at the expense of conservation objectives and values; and the establishment of tourism cartels which divert wildlife generated benefits awayfrom landowners. The fundamental institutional failure is the lack of property rights and use rights of landowners over wildlife. Fundamental market failures reflect the absence of financial incentives to landowners to conserve their wildlife resource, thus setting marginal depletion costs to zero, and competing production incentives. The Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) is reintroducing financial incentives to landowners by permitting some consumptive use of wildlife, bymaking substantial direct grants to landowners and communities who support wildlife and bysidelining the tourism cartels and encouraging private sector tourism on private land. However, investment in conservation is still being hampered by the continuing prohibition of high value activities such as sport hunting, and by over regulation and vacillation. Furthermore, positive net benefits to landowners from wildlife operations are not in themselves adequate to guarantee economic incentives to conserve the resource. First, significant negative externalities are associated with wildlife in that they add greatly to the production costs of livestock and agriculture; second, opportunity costs (in terms of foregone benefits of development) of leaving land undeveloped for conservation are gradually increasing in response to growing populations, expanding markets and new agricultural technology; and third, some policies are having the perverse impacts of creating poverty traps. Wildlife conservation policy must accordingly be much wider in scope and use a much broader range of economic, financial and market instruments, possibly including differential land use taxes, conservation subsidies and easements, and lease back agreements. Simply creating positive net benefits from wildlife is not enough.     

Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*

In this article we present a stylized model for optimal management of an unconfined groundwater resource when the threat of drought exists. The drought is modeled as a stochastic event that hits at an uncertain date and two benchmark management policies are investigated: (a) A policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) an economically optimal policy that accounts for the threat of a drought. We show that the optimal predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size of groundwater under policy b is larger than that under policy (a) Furthermore, we show that an increase in the probability of a drought gives rise to two counteracting effects: One in the direction of a larger predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size (a recovery effect) and one in the direction of a lower predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock (an extinction effect). We find that the recovery effect dominates the extinction effect. Recommendations for Resource Managers: We analyze two groundwater extraction policies that can be used when a threat of drought exists: (a) Dynamic optimal management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) dynamic optimal management taking the threat of drought into account. We show that the predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size of water should be larger under the policy (b) than under policy (a). This conclusion has three implications for resource managers:

• Current groundwater management should take future extraction possibilities into account.

• A resource manager ought to take the threat of drought into account in groundwater management.

• A buffer stock of water should be built‐up before the drought to be drawn upon during the event.

     

The impact of environmental regulations on forest product trade in China

Forest product trade plays an important role in the development of the Chinese forest industry. The trading value of forest product has shown a yearly growth rate of 12% during the last five recent years. Stringent environmental regulations in China have a profound impact on raw material supplies and industrial production in the forest sector; however, their impact on the forest product trade is still unclear. This study applies fixed and random effects models as well as a seemingly unrelated regression model to investigate the impact of environmental regulations on the trade of forest product from 2002 to 2015. The results indicate that the stringent environmental regulations promoted the import but restricted the export of forest product in general. Specifically, the stringent environmental regulations stimulated the import but had an ambiguous impact on the export of the paper product. The stringent environmental regulations had also stimulated the import of wood product but inhibited the export. In contrast, wooden furniture had been affected minimally; only export got slightly negatively affected by environmental regulations. Recommendations for resource managers:

• Trade‐offs between economic growth and environmental regulations are needed to smoothly promote the forest product trade in China.
• Paper and wooden furniture product sectors are less likely to be affected by stringent environmental regulations, because high value‐added products could compensate for environmental costs.
• The wood product sector is more likely to be negatively affected by stringent environmental regulations because environmental costs could severely impact the competitiveness of low value‐added products.

     

A fair and time‐consistent sharing of the joint exploitation payoff of a fishery

We consider the problem of efficiently managing a fishery where pollution externalities are present. The open‐access bionomic model is analyzed in an ‐player differential game framework with two‐state variables, that is, the fish stock and the pollution stock. We characterize the noncooperative feedback‐Nash equilibrium and cooperative solution, and define an egalitarian sharing rule to allocate the joint welfare maximizing payoff over an infinite time horizon, and show that this rule is time consistent. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• ● Cooperation in management of a fishery where pollution externalities are present yields a higher payoff over time as compared to the noncooperative behavior.
• ● The dividend of cooperation can be allocated among the fisherpersons according to an egalitarian sharing rule.
• ● This allocation is time‐consistent, that is, no player will be tempted to deviate from cooperation as time goes by, and the initial agreement is sustainable.

     

A multiple criteria decision making approach to manure management systems in the Netherlands

The intensification of livestock operations in the last few decades has resulted in an increased social concern over the environmental impacts of livestock operations and thus making appropriate manure management decisions increasingly important. A socially acceptable manure management system that simultaneously achieves the pressing environmental objectives while balancing the socio-economic welfare of farmers and society at large is needed. Manure management decisions involve a number of decision makers with different and conflicting views of what is acceptable in the context of sustainable development. This paper developed a decision-making tool based on a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) approach to address the manure management problems in the Netherlands. This paper has demonstrated the application of compromise programming and goal programming to evaluate key trade-offs between socio-economic benefits and environmental sustainability of manure management systems while taking decision makers’ conflicting views of the different criteria into account. The proposed methodology is a useful tool in assisting decision makers and policy makers in designing policies that enhance the introduction of economically, socially and environmentally sustainable manure management systems.     

Setting expediting repair policy in a multi-echelon repairable-item inventory system with limited repair capacity

Inventory systems with limited repair capacity are affected by congestion externalities, caused by use of a shared service. There is incompatibility between individual and system optimisation in considering congestion externalities. Three models are described that investigate the congestion effect in a multi-echelon inventory system which has two modes of repair, each with a limited repair capacity. An expanding repair policy employed by the bases in order to choose which repair mode to use is described and compared with different expediting policies related to congestion externalities. The expanding repair policy that considers congestion externalities was found to lead to better system performance measurement than an expanding policy with no congestion. The results of the numerical experiment indicate that the model that ignores congestion externalities—that is, the model that measures each base as an individual—leads to poorer performance measurement for every expediting repair policy, and particularly for the optimal expediting repair policy.     

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ON THE TREND BEHAVIOR OF US EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN OXIDES AND VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS

The nature of this paper is a practical application of a proper time‐series methodology to evaluate policy impacts when there is uncertainty about the data being difference‐stationary (DS) or trend‐stationary (TS). We use this methodology to examine the trend behavior of two air pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NO_X) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). In particular, we concentrate on answering two questions. First, were there breaks in the trends of NO_X and VOC emissions around the same time environmental policies such as the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1970 were passed? And second, accounting for possible breaks are the US emissions of NO_X and VOC TS or DS? Our empirical results show a clear evidence of a trend shift in NO_X and VOC emissions at the time the CAAA of 1970 were passed, implying that this policy has been effective in reducing air pollution emissions, as well as additional breaks that correspond to other events and environmental policies before and after 1970. The unit root tests indicate that NO_X are DS irrespective of the number of breaks in the trend whereas results for VOC emissions depend on the number of breaks assumed.     

Focus on economy or ecology? A three‐dimensional trade‐off based on ecological carrying capacity in southwest China

Economic growth and human activities challenge the regional harmony of the economy and environment. Based on an evaluation of ecological carrying capacity (ECC), we have constructed a three‐dimensional trade‐off model for socially harmonious development for the Sichuan and Yunnan regions in southwest China. The results demonstrate that there is a continuous increase in socioeconomic coordination (SEC; slope > 0.23) and a change in the ECC in the study area, characterized by subtle fluctuations from 2000 through 2008. This was primarily due to the loss of resource and environment carrying capacity wiping out the profits of SEC. Significant government aid during the postdisaster reconstruction and more attention being paid to the environment in policy resulted in a faster increase in ECC (slope > 0.38) from 2008 to 2016. Based on this trade‐off model, managers could deeply understand the relationship between resources, the economy, and ecology. Summary for Managers

• Ecological environment protection is increasingly crucial in Sichuan and Yunnan regions as they feel the effects of climate change and human activities.
• The three‐dimensional trade‐off model measuring socially coordinated development is a modified multiobjective, decision‐making model.
• Based on this trade‐off model, managers could, understand the relationship between resources, the economy, and ecology.
• It can help manage our environmental assets and plan ecological conservation, to ensure that the environment maintains its capacity to serve the societal development.

     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach

The interaction of monetary and fiscal policies is a crucial issue in a highly integrated economic area as the European Union. We investigate to which extent the EMU, that introduced a common monetary policy and restrictions on fiscal policy at the national level, benefits from macroeconomic policy cooperation due to the various interactions, spillovers and externalities from national macroeconomic policies. To study the effects of policy cooperation we compare the impact of three alternative policy regimes in a stylized dynamic model of the EMU: (i) non-cooperative monetary and fiscal policies, (ii) partial cooperation, and (iii) full cooperation both in symmetric and asymmetric settings where countries differ in structural characteristics, policy preferences and/or bargaining power. The paper introduces an analysis of coalitional behaviour in a dynamic setting into the literature.     

基于供应链视角的政府扶贫效率研究

在电商扶贫中,政府常采用农业技术推广、政府采购、投入补贴三种农业帮扶模式,何种方式更有效是一个非常重要的问题。本文基于供应链视角,使用主从博弈模型对比分析供应链成员的决策行为,之后从农户收益最大化角度分析政府扶贫的效率,并讨论应用情景。结果表明:政府进行基础设施建设与农业帮扶均可提高农户收入;消费者的扶贫偏好会增加农产品价格与农户利润,且能够提高三种帮扶模式的效率;农户投入成本较小时,投入补贴模式扶贫效率最高,而农技推广与政府采购模式更稳定,在农户投入成本较高时更有效;政府资金有限时,投入补贴模式效率最高,当资金量中等时,农技推广模式效率最高,若资金比较充裕,则政府采购模式较为有效。     

ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE AND OPTIMAL OIL AND GAS EXPLOITATION

This paper examines the impacts of environmental regulations on firms in the oil and gas industry. A model is developed using optimal control theory, which extends the existing models by incorporating the environmental compliance costs into the exploration and production stages. An approach for measuring the cumulative impacts of these regulations on the firm's exploration and production is presented. The results indicate that rising environmental compliance costs lead to reductions in investment and production, and the alteration of investment and production profiles. This implies that less resources will be developed and associated economic benefit will decline. Therefore, it is vital for policy makers to consider carefully whether the perceived environmental benefits derived from these regulations justify associated compliance costs.     

Shooting at the poachers while the rhinos drown: Managing short‐ and long‐term threats to endangered wildlife in conservation reserves

This paper addresses management challenges associated with conserving endangered wildlife facing multiple threats from illegal poaching, habitat encroachment, and climate and land‐use change‐induced flooding. While poaching and encroachment challenges in conservation parks are of immediate nature, climate‐related risks exist in the long term. The park manager faces a utility function that includes as its arguments local community’s incomes, benefits to the larger society from preserving threatened species and the financial costs of monitoring and land‐use change efforts. Using the case of single‐horned rhinos in the Kaziranga National Park, India, an optimal mix of monitoring and land‐use changes is designed in presence of tradeoffs between short‐ and long‐term management efforts. As monitoring only addresses immediate challenges associated with poaching and encroachment, long‐term climatic risks remain ignored. Land‐use management offers risk‐protection as well as risk‐insurance benefits with respect to climate change‐induced flooding of the park. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• It is important to incorporate both short‐ and long‐term risks posed to endangered wildlife while investing in conservation efforts. There may exist a tradeoff between mitigating short‐ and long‐run risks due to financial and physical resource constraints. However, ignoring long‐term risks to wildlife habitats can jeopardize past conservation efforts.
• Land‐use management, both within and outside of conservation reserves, enhances resilience to climatic shocks through reducing flooding risks and must be an essential part of wildlife conservation efforts.
• Conservation efforts ignoring local community welfare considerations can become suboptimal as they lead to reduced cooperation and potential conflicts. When wildlife conservation efforts account for local community welfare implications, optimal management plans could result in lower species abundance in the short term. However, increasing the park size through additional land enrollment can mitigate some of this tradeoff.

     

FOREIGN INVESTMENT POLICIES AND ENVIRONMENT

ABSTRACT. We consider a North‐South model of capital mobility in which foreign investment adversely impacts the environment in South. By focusing on the strategic aspects of environmental policies, among other things, we compare different policy regimes, i.e., different combinations of tax and quota. More specifically, we investigate the (non)equivalence of these policy regimes.     

Emergy analysis of a farm biogas project in China: A biophysical perspective of agricultural ecological engineering

This paper aims to present a biophysical understanding of the agricultural ecological engineering by emergy analysis for a farm biogas project in China as a representative case. Accounting for the resource inputs into and accumulation within the project, as well as the outputs to the social system, emergy analysis provides an empirical study in the biophysical dimension of the agricultural ecological engineering. Economic benefits and ecological economic benefits of the farm biogas project indicated by market value and emergy monetary value are discussed, respectively. Relative emergy-based indices such as renewability (R%), emergy yield ratio (EYR), environmental load ratio (ELR) and environmental sustainability index (ESI) are calculated to evaluate the environmental load and local sustainability of the concerned biogas project. The results show that the farm biogas project has more reliance on the local renewable resources input, less environmental pressure and higher sustainability compared with other typical agricultural systems. In addition, holistic evaluation and its policy implications for better operation and management of the biogas project are presented.     

Two-party competition with many constituences

The paper considers a single member district, simple plurality political system with n districts. There are two political parties, each consisting of n candidates. Individual candidates seek to win their district per se, but voters appreciate that final policy outcomes will depend upon: (1) which party wins control of the legislature, and (2) how party policy is derived from the party members' policies. Candidates take account of such voter deliberations in choosing their election strategies. A set of minimal sufficient conditions for an equilibrium to exist in this game is provided and the equilibrium characterized. While party policies are shown to converge in equilibrium, candidate policies in general do not - either across or within parties.     

MEASURING THE COSTS OF REALLOCATING WATER FROM AGRICULTURE: A MULTI‐MODEL APPROACH

ABSTRACT. Increasing demand for water by environmental interests, coupled with the diminishing prospects for constructing new water diversion projects, is forcing farmers in the western United States to cope with reduced surface water deliveries. The cost of improving instream water quality by reducing agricultural diversions is shown to depend mainly on how the supply reductions are allocated among users and on the extent of water trading. A central contribution of this paper is a methodology for measuring the impacts of water supply policy reforms on irrigated agriculture. The paper nests three empirical models in a general conceptual framework. The models differ in terms of their degree of detail and assumptions about input substitution. By comparing model results, it is possible to place bounds on the consequences of policy changes, and to identify critical factors determining economic impacts. The models are applied to the problem of improving water quality in the San Francisco Bay/Delta estuary.     

THE IMPACTS OF MARINE RESERVES ON LIMITED‐ENTRY FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. We utilize a spatial bioeconomic model to investigate the impacts of creating reserves on limited‐entry fisheries. We find that reserve creation can produce win‐win situations where aggregate biomass and the common license (lease) price increase. These situations arise in biological systems where dispersal processes are prevalent and the fishery prior to reserve creation is operating at effort levels in a neighborhood of open‐access levels. We also illustrate that using strictly biological criteria for siting reserves (e.g., setting aside the most biological productive areas) will likely induce the most vociferous objections from the fishing industry. In general, we find that the dispersal rate and the degree the patches are connected play a significant role on the net impacts on the fishing sector.     

A calibrated model of local food system of Hawaii: What are the economic implications of the state's food goals and policies?

We develop a fully calibrated positive mathematical programming model for Hawaii's local food systems—which captures the production and the consumer sides of the market. Then we use the model to assess two proposed policies—a general excise tax (GET) exemption on locally produced foods, and an investment in agricultural infrastructure. For the GET exemption case, our results indicate an economic gain of $118 per $100 cost. On the other hand, an investment in 1,200 acres of land injected to support local production may generate an economic gain of up to $357 per $100 annual cost of the investment. However, these estimates should be considered preliminary, and thus viewed with caution. Although the model is used to capture Hawaii's local food systems, we believe that our model is generalizable and can be adopted by other economies to assess their respective food localization policies. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Local food policies need to be based on quantitative terms instead of mere armchair speculation because often their potential outcomes may vary significantly.

• The current modeling framework demonstrates the potential of using positive mathematical programming (PMP) in capturing the intricacies of local food systems. However, this exploratory exercise should be viewed as preliminary in nature and the ensuing results were taken with caution because many important factors such as labor availability may have been left out.

• Thus, further model refinements are necessary to better capture the complexities of local food systems such as farm heterogeneity, availability of farm labor, water availability, and interisland transportation of farm products in the case of Hawaii.