Understanding the impacts of product knowledge and product type on the accuracy of intentions-based new product predictions

New product development involves several critical decisions. A key decision making area in new product development is the evaluation of the viability and the market potentials of a new product. In the absence of any relevant historical data, companies ask the potential buyers of their products about their intentions to buy those products when assessing their viability. Despite the popularity of the use of behavioral intentions in predicting the market acceptance of new product ideas, both survey and empirical studies suggest that the accuracy of such predictions is usually very low. Although earlier case-based studies suggest that a number of factors can affect the quality of new product decisions, it is still empirically unclear how product knowledge and the type of new products might impact the predictive accuracy of intentions-based new product forecasting. This study utilized a longitudinal research design and empirically tested the hypotheses across two new products. The study first collected purchase intentions data about the new products. Second, it collected subsequent actual purchase data about the new products. The results of series of hierarchical regression analyses comparing the initial purchase intentions and subsequent actual behaviors showed that while product knowledge is positively related to the predictive accuracy and consistency of intentions-based new product forecasting, product type is negatively related to them.     

The optimal pace of product updates

Some firms (e.g. Intel and Medtronics) use a time-pacing strategy for product development (PD), introducing new generations at regular intervals. If the firm adopts a fast pace (introducing frequently), it prematurely cannibalizes its old generation, incurring high development costs, while if it has a slow pace, it fails to capitalize on customer willingness-to-pay for improved technology. We develop a model to gain insight into which factors drive the pace. We consider PD cost, the diffusion rate (coefficients of innovation and imitation), the rate of margin decline, and the degree to which a new generation stimulates market growth. We find that a faster pace is generally associated with faster diffusion, a higher market growth rate and faster margin decay. Not so intuitively, we find that relatively minor differences in the development cost function can significantly impact the pace.     

中国海洋可持续发展的SD模型与动态模拟

发展海洋经济,走海洋可持续发展之路,是振兴我国经济的一项举足轻重战略决策.从我国海洋的实际出发,运用系统动力学理论与方法建立了海洋可持续发展仿真模型.选择技术投资比例、单位海洋产业产值排污系数以及单位海洋产业产值资源消耗系数作为控制参量,分别取用不同的数值进行模拟.得到模拟结果表明,同时加大海洋经济中技术投资比,减少排污系数和资源消耗系数,海洋经将得到持续发展.并提出适合我国海洋可持续发展的政策建议.     

Focus on economy or ecology? A three‐dimensional trade‐off based on ecological carrying capacity in southwest China

Economic growth and human activities challenge the regional harmony of the economy and environment. Based on an evaluation of ecological carrying capacity (ECC), we have constructed a three‐dimensional trade‐off model for socially harmonious development for the Sichuan and Yunnan regions in southwest China. The results demonstrate that there is a continuous increase in socioeconomic coordination (SEC; slope > 0.23) and a change in the ECC in the study area, characterized by subtle fluctuations from 2000 through 2008. This was primarily due to the loss of resource and environment carrying capacity wiping out the profits of SEC. Significant government aid during the postdisaster reconstruction and more attention being paid to the environment in policy resulted in a faster increase in ECC (slope > 0.38) from 2008 to 2016. Based on this trade‐off model, managers could deeply understand the relationship between resources, the economy, and ecology. Summary for Managers

• Ecological environment protection is increasingly crucial in Sichuan and Yunnan regions as they feel the effects of climate change and human activities.
• The three‐dimensional trade‐off model measuring socially coordinated development is a modified multiobjective, decision‐making model.
• Based on this trade‐off model, managers could, understand the relationship between resources, the economy, and ecology.
• It can help manage our environmental assets and plan ecological conservation, to ensure that the environment maintains its capacity to serve the societal development.

     

The effect of variety seeking behaviour on optimal product positioning

In this paper we develop a stochastic (first order Markovian) consumer choice model that represents variety seeking behaviour and we investigate the practical implications of this model for optimal product positioning relative to a zero order model that does not incorporate variety seeking. We show that the optimal positioning implications of a variety seeking process is indeed different than those of a (no-variety-seeking) zero order process. Based on intuition, one might expect increased variety seeking to imply that firms should increase the distance between their products in an attribute space. In fact, we show that this effect does occur for relatively low share brands. But just the opposite effect holds for relatively high share brands. That is, variety seeking behaviour generates a desire to more differentiation among low share brands, and a desire for less differentiation among high share brands.     

环保投资分析模型研究

本在分析环保投资对环境质量和环境经济效益影响特征的基础上,提出环保投资效益模型,并以福建省泉州市废气污染治理为实例,对模型进行了适用性及实证分析,在一定程度上为实现经济与环境的可持续发展提供了环保投资的决策依据。     

A representation model for the solving-time distribution of a set of design tasks in new product development (NPD)

Given the potential risks of new product development projects (NPD), the characteristics of the design tasks solving-time distributions are critical for their effective management. In OR we need to find what operational characteristics of design tasks may delay projects. Other researchers already identified the technological novelty, the magnitude of the design tasks, the interactions between design tasks in an NPD project, and the balancing between projects among the most important causes of the unpredictability of the design tasks lead times in NPD projects.     

可持续发展综合评价指标体系的设计及对未来三种人口发展方案的评价

本文采用系统学的观点 ,建立了可持续发展综合评价指标体系 ,并对未来采用三种不同人口发展方案对我国可持续发展的影响程度进行了分析评价 .结果表明 ,适度的人口控制是实现可持续发展目标的根本保证 .     

The EU regulation on cross-border trade of electricity: A two-stage equilibrium model

The regulation on cross-border exchanges of electricity in the European Union is meant to enhance the trade of electricity between Member States, by facilitating access to the network and improving the management of congestion at the interconnections. This paper presents a computational model that embeds these two features. The problem is cast in the form of a two-stage equilibrium between regional Regulators. In the first stage, they decide on the allocation of their regional network costs between generators and customers. Either they maximise their regional welfare non-cooperatively (Nash equilibrium), or they centralise the decision as a super-regulator (leading to a cooperative equilibrium). In the second-stage equilibrium, the consequences of first-stage’s decisions are assessed by modelling the energy market as the result of imperfect competition equilibrium on competitive market, coupled with regulated pricing on the domestic less competitive markets. The “rules” that come out of the first-stage game largely influence the final equilibrium. We illustrate this on an extensive numerical example, showing that the model behaves properly and identifying policy issues worth of further investigations.     

基于组合赋权法的我国CO2排放量影响因素的评价研究

为客观和准确地挖掘和评价我国CO₂排放量影响因素,选取技术投入、对外贸易开放程度、产业结构、能源消费结构、经济增长水平、人口规模和绿色植被用地面积等因素作为评价依据,构建我国CO₂排放量影响因素指标体系。在此基础上,基于组合赋权法构建我国CO₂排放量影响因素评价模型,实证分析2000~2011年我国CO₂排放量影响因素。组合赋权法结果显示:技术投入、产业结构、能源消费结构、经济增长和绿色植被用地面积是影响我国CO₂排放量的主要因素。组合赋权法在我国CO₂排放量影响因素评价分析的运用,提高了评价的客观性和科学性,为进一步确定CO₂排放量影响因素提供有价值的参考。     

基于最优组合赋权法的我国能源效率评价及影响因素研究

本文总结我国能源效率的主要影响因素,具体包括产业结构、技术进步、能源消费结构、经济发展水平、市场化程度和开放程度,构建我国能源效率影响因素的指标体系。基于最优组合赋权法建立能源效率评价模型,并对2000~2011年我国能源效率及影响因素进行实证分析。实证结果表明:我国能源效率整体呈上升趋势,能源效率显著提高;第二产业产值占国内生产总值比重、重工业占工业产值比重、第二产业增长值比重、R&D投入、第三产业产值占国内生产总值比重和煤炭消费量占能源消费总量比重是我国能源效率最主要的影响指标,而天然气消费量占能源消费总量比重和水、核、风消费量占能源消费总量比重对我国能源效率影响相对较小。     

一般均衡下基于产品市场和资本市场的单名CDS定价

次贷危机呼吁新的信用衍生品定价模型, 因此为存在产品市场和资本市场的经济结构建立一般均衡的单名CDS定价模型, 使用最优化求解一般均衡下的商品价格和CDS价格. 可以发现一般均衡的CDS定价具有资本市场和产品市场的因素, 这表示CDS的价格不再是由单纯的资本市场因素决定的, 而是由无风险利率、资本产出弹性、违约率、回收率同时决定的. 通过数量约束用模拟的方式研究多个均衡的动态变化, 发现违约风险的增加使得价格剧烈波动且市场交易萎缩. 在为以中国工商银行为参考资产的CDS定价过程中, 发现各种因素在不同的时期都可能成为定价的主要影响因素. 可以发现, 次贷危机的定价体系存在着信用调整问题和定价与实体经济脱节的问题. 可以认为, 一般均衡下基于产品市场和资本市场的单名CDS定价可以囊括多个市场的交叉影响, 为衍生品定价提供一个新的方向.     

基于多元统计的可持续发展动态评价模型研究与应用

给出了一种基于多元统计的可持续发展动态评价模型方法,该模型方法以全局主成分分析(GPCA)、聚类分析等方法为主,将之与层次分析法(AHP)进行有效集成。再以中国各地区可持续发展环境子系统为例,根据环境污染、环境保护与治理、生态环境质量与保护、可持续发展综合环境支持能力4个方面对中国各地区1999-2005年可持续发展环境支持能力状态进行了定量评价和动态分析。指数化的评价结果表明,中国各地区以上4个方面的可持续发展环境支持能力逐年增强,可持续发展综合环境支持能力综合指数均值从1999年的0.021上升到2005年的0.446,2001年以后有加速提高的迹象。     

基于秩和比法的中国可持续发展经济A系统的综合评价

利用秩和比法对中国可持续发展经济子系统的进行分析和综合评价研究,我们通过时间序列的分析与各指标的发展状态研究结果表明,与中国的实际发展状况相吻合,并对中国发展的总态势给出总结和预测.     

中国经济全球化进程的基本判断

经济全球化是世界经济发展的重要趋势.近些年来,我国的经济全球化程度有了很大的提升.在"金砖四国"中,我国的经济全球化程度居首位.但是与发达经济体相比较,中国经济全球化水平还存在很大的差距,特别是在"人员联系"和"信息技术"两个指标方面,还需要进一步提高,当然这也是我国经济进一步全球化的潜力所在.     

金融发展对我国出口产品质量的非线性异质影响研究

中国出口产品往往面临量高而质低的困境,这直接导致了我国产品在国际市场上往往只能定位在较低的价格。本文使用2000-2006年中国工业企业数据库和海关数据库匹配所得的微观数据,从产品层面出发测算企业出口产品质量,结合行业层面间接融资渠道测度的金融发展指标,运用非参数分位数面板研究发现：(1)金融发展对出口产品质量存在非线性异质影响且影响模式显著不同,在高分位处呈现“倒N型”特征;(2)在不同分位点处存在差异化的最优金融发展水平,并随分位点下降而降低;(3)非东部地区、高技术产品的质量对金融发展的敏感程度更高,而对低分位产品质量促进作用更大。本文结论表明,区域金融发展宏观调控应考虑到企业自身产品质量水平影响。     

Convergence in L p -norm of Fourier series on the complete product of quaternion groups with bounded orders

A well-known result for Vilenkin systems is the fact that for all 1 p ∞ the n-th partial sums of Fourier series of all functions in the space Lpconverge to the function in Lp-norm.This statement can not be generalized to any representative product system on the complete product of finite non-abelian groups,but even then it is true for the complete product of quaternion groups with bounded orders and monomial representative product system ordered in a specific way.     

证据理论在新产品开发方案可行性评估中的应用

研究证据理论在新产品开发方案可行性评估中的应用。证据理论是一种不确定性的推理方法，能较好地反映可行性评估中客观证据和专家意见对评估结果的影响。通过对宽带可视电话开发方案可行性评估过程的分析表明，证据理论为企业新产品开发方案的可行性评估提供了客观的、操作性好的的模型和方法。