一类带有一般接触率和常数输入的流行病模型的全局分析

借助极限系统理论和构造适当的Liapunov函数,对带有一般接触率和常数输入的SIR型和SIRS型传染病模型进行讨论．当无染病者输入时,地方病平衡点存在的阈值被找到A·D2对相应的SIR模型,关于无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性均得到充要条件;对相应的SIRS模型,得到无病平衡点和地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件．当有染病者输入时,模型不存在无病平衡点．对相应的SIR模型,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;对相应的SIRS模型,得到地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件．     

The effect of vaccines on backward bifurcation in a fractional order HIV model

In this paper, a homogeneous-mixing population fractional model for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission, which incorporates anti-HIV preventive vaccines, is proposed. The dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when there is no vaccine. However, it has been shown that when the efficacy or dosage of vaccines is low, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium point (EE) when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. A new critical value at the turning point should be deduced as a new threshold of disease eradication. We have generalized the integer LaSalle invariant set theorem into fractional system and given some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium point being globally asymptotical stability. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that improving the efficiency and dosage of vaccines are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

Dynamical behavior of a virus dynamics model with CTL immune response

In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a virus dynamics model with CTL immune response is studied. Sufficient conditions for the asymptotical stability of a disease-free equilibrium, an immune-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium are obtained. We prove that there exists a threshold value of the infection rate b beyond which the endemic equilibrium bifurcates from the immune-free one. Still for increasing b values, the endemic equilibrium bifurcates towards a periodic solution. We further analyze the orbital stability of the periodic orbits arising from bifurcation by applying Poore’s condition. Numerical simulation with some hypothetical sets of data has been done to support the analytical findings.     

基于媒体报道的Filippov传染病模型的全局动力学

在经典传染病模型的基础上,通过考虑阈值策略,研究了一类基于媒体报道的不连续的传染病模型.利用Filippov意义下的右端不连续微分方程理论,对阈值策略下传染病模型的动力学行为进行了定性分析,并利用Poincaré映射研究了无病平衡点、地方病平衡点及伪平衡点的全局渐近稳定性.     

变时滞HIV梯度传染模型的指数稳定性

考虑了一类具变时滞和常恢复率的同质人群 HIV梯度传染模型 ,得到了一个阈值 ,当阈值小于 1时 ,疾病消除平衡点全局指数渐近稳定 ,当阈值大于 1时 ,传染病平衡点存在唯一 ,同时得到该传染病平衡点局部指数渐近稳定的充分条件 .     

The dynamic behavior of deterministic and stochastic delayed SIQS model

In this paper, we present the deterministic and stochastic delayed SIQS epidemic models. For the deterministic model, the basic reproductive number $R_{0}$ is given. Moreover, when $R_{0}<1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotical stable. When $R_{0}>1$ and additional conditions hold, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotical stable. For the stochastic model, a sharp threshold $\overset{\wedge }{R}_{0}$ which determines the extinction or persistence in the mean of the disease is presented. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic are established. Numerical simulations are also conducted in the analytic results.     

染病者有常数输入的传染病模型

讨论在隔离措施下易感者和染病者都有常数移民的传染病模型.给出了模型的地方病平衡点,证明了地方病平衡点的稳定性.     

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF AN EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH VACCINATION

An SIRS epidemic modei with vaccination, temporary immunity and vary-ing total population size is considered. The threshold of existence of endemic equilibrium is found. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable below the threshold, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable above the threshold.     

ASYMPTOTICAL ANALYSIS OF A REACTIONDIFFUSION EQUATIONS D-SIS EPIDEMIC MODEL

By monotone methods and invariant region theory,a reaction-diffusion equa- tions D-SIS epidemic model with bilinear rate is studied.The existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model are proved.The basic reproductive number which determines whether the disease is extinct or not is found.The globally asymptotical stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are obtained.Some results of the ordinary differential equations model are extended to the present partial differential equations model.     

The role of viral infection in phytoplankton dynamics with the inclusion of incubation class

The role of viral infection in phytoplankton dynamics without and with incubation population class is studied. It is observed that phytoplankton species in the absence of incubated class are unstable around an endemic equilibrium but the presence of delay in the form of incubated class has made it conditionally stable around an endemic equilibrium. We also observe that the dynamical system is very sensitive to the transfer rate from susceptible to incubated class and when it crosses a certain threshold the phytoplankton population start oscillating around the endemic equilibrium, shown both analytically and numerically.     

一类带有接种的流行病模型的全局稳定性

该文讨论了一类带有接种的流行病模型. 在该模型中假设恢复后的个体与被接种的个体均具有确定的免疫期, 它是一个时滞微分系统. 通过分析, 得到了地方病平衡点存在的阈值, 以及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点局部渐近稳定和全局渐近稳定的充分条件.     

Permanence of a delayed SIR epidemic model with general nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a SIR model with two delays and general nonlinear incidence rate is considered. The local and global asymptotical stabilities of the disease‐free equilibrium are given. The local asymptotical stability and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium are also established by analyzing the distribution of the characteristic values. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions for the permanence of the system are given. Some numerical simulations to support the analytical conclusions are carried out. At last, some conclusions are given. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of a Diffusive SIR Epidemic Model with Time Delay

This paper is devoted to a reaction-diffusion system for a SIR epidemic model with time delay and incidence rate. Firstly, the nonnegativity and boundedness of solutions determined by nonnegative initial values are obtained. Secondly, the existence and local stability of the disease-free equilibrium as well as the endemic equilibrium are investigated by analyzing the characteristic equations. Finally, the global asymptotical stability are obtained via Lyapunov functionals.     

按比例接种情况下的乙肝流行模型及研究

研究了按比例接种情况下的乙肝这种流行病的数学模型，给出了对疾病传播有重要影响的再生数R0，得到了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性，并对不同的参数进行了数值模拟．     

具有常数输入的SEIR模型的稳定性分析

讨论了易感者类和潜伏者类均为常数输入,潜伏期、染病期和恢复期均具有传染力,且传染率为一般传染率的SEIR传染病模型.利用Hurwitz判据证明了地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性,进一步利用复合矩阵理论得到了地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件.     

TWO DIFFERENTIAL INFECTIVITY EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

This paper considers two differential infectivity（DI） epidemic models with a nonlinear incidence rate and constant or varying population size. The models exhibits two equilibria, namely., a disease-free equilibrium O and a unique endemic equilibrium. If the basic reproductive number σ is below unity,O is globally stable and the disease always dies out. If σ〉1, O is unstable and the sufficient conditions for global stability of endemic equilibrium are derived. Moreover,when σ〈 1 ,the local or global asymptotical stability of endemic equilibrium for DI model with constant population size in n-dimensional or two-dimensional space is obtained.     

GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF SIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH A SIMPLE VACCINATION AND MULTIPLE ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIA

An SIS epidemic model with a simple vaccination is investigated in this article. The efficiency of vaccine, the disease-related death rate and population dynamics are also considered in this model. The authors find two threshold R0 and Rc (Rc may not exist). There is a unique endemic equilibrium for R0 > 1 or Rc = R0; there are two endemic equilibria for Rc < R0 < 1; and there is no endemic equilibrium for R0 < Rc < 1. When Rc exists, there is a backward bifurcation from the disease-free equilibrium for R0 = 1. They analyze the stability of equilibria and obtain the globally dynamic behaviors of the model. The results acquired in this article show that an accurate estimation of the efficiency of vaccine is necessary to prevent and controll the spread of disease.     

Global analysis of a vector-host epidemic model with nonlinear incidences

In this paper, an epidemic model with nonlinear incidences is proposed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread by vectors (mosquitoes), such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and so on. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The stability of the system can be controlled by the threshold number R₀. It is shown that if R₀ is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results imply that the threshold condition of the system provides important guidelines for accessing control of the vector diseases, and the spread of vector epidemic in an efficient way can be prevented. The contribution of the nonlinear saturating incidence to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium are also analyzed, respectively.     

具有接种疫苗年龄和媒介发生率的SIVS模型分析

本文研究了一类带有接种疫苗年龄和媒介发生率的SIVS流行病模型.运用微分和积分方程理论,如果Ro ＜β1/[b(1 -p)+λ]＜1,得到无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;如果R0＞1,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

Stability analysis of an epidemic model with diffusion and stochastic perturbation

In this paper, we investigate the stability of an epidemic model with diffusion and stochastic perturbation. We first show both the local and global stability of the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic epidemic model by analyzing corresponding characteristic equation and Lyapunov function. Second, for the corresponding reaction–diffusion epidemic model, we present the conditions of the globally asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium. And we carry out the analytical study for the stochastic model in details and find out the conditions for asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium in the mean sense. Furthermore, we perform a series of numerical simulations to illustrate our mathematical findings.