Assessing the Performance of Different Volatility Estimators: A Monte Carlo Analysis

Abstract

We test the performance of different volatility estimators that have recently been proposed in the literature and have been designed to deal with problems arising when ultra high-frequency data are employed: microstructure noise and price discontinuities. Our goal is to provide an extensive simulation analysis for different levels of noise and frequency of jumps to compare the performance of the proposed volatility estimators. We conclude that the maximum likelihood estimator filter (MLE-F), a two-step parametric volatility estimator proposed by Cartea and Karyampas (2011a Cartea, Á. and Karyampas, D. 2011a. The relationship between the volatility of returns and the number of jumps in financial markets, SSRN eLibrary, Working Paper Series, SSRN.  [Google Scholar]; The relationship between the volatility returns and the number of jumps in financial markets, SSRN eLibrary, Working Paper Series, SSRN), outperforms most of the well-known high-frequency volatility estimators when different assumptions about the path properties of stock dynamics are used.     

An integral representation of elasticity and sensitivity for stochastic volatility models

This paper presents a generic probabilistic approach to study elasticities and sensitivities of financial quantities under stochastic volatility models. We describe the shock elasticity, the quantile sensitivity and the vega value of cash flows with respect to perturbation of the volatility function of the model. The main contribution is to establish explicit formulae for these elasticities and sensitivities based on a novel application of the exponential measure change technique in Palmowski and Rolski (Bernoulli 8(6):767–785 2002). We carry out explicit calculations for the Heston model and the 3/2 stochastic volatility model, and derive explicit expressions in terms of model parameters.     

A remark on smooth solutions to a stochastic control problem with a power terminal cost function and stochastic volatilities

Incomplete financial markets are considered, defined by a multi-dimensional non-homogeneous diffusion process, being the direct sum of an Itô process (the price process), and another non-homogeneous diffusion process (the exogenous process, representing exogenous stochastic sources). The drift and the diffusion matrix of the price process are functions of the time, the price process itself and the exogenous process. In the context of such markets and for power utility functions, it is proved that the stochastic control problem consisting of optimizing the expected utility of the terminal wealth, has a classical solution (i.e. \(C^{1,2}\) ). This result paves the way to a study of the optimal portfolio problem in incomplete forward variance stochastic volatility models, along the lines of Ekeland and Taflin [7].     

Risk management with multiple VaR constraints

We study a utility maximization problem under multiple Value-at-Risk (VaR)-type constraints. The optimization framework is particularly important for financial institutions which have to follow short-time VaR-type regulations under some realistic regulatory frameworks like Solvency II, but need to serve long-term liabilities. Deriving closed-form solutions, we show that risk management using multiple VaR constraints is more useful for loss prevention at intertemporal time instances compared with the well-known result of the one-VaR problem in Basak and Shapiro (Rev Financ Stud 14:371–405, 2001), confirming the numerical analysis of Shi and Werker (J Bank Finance 36(12):3227–3238, 2012). In addition, the multiple-VaR solution at maturity on average dominates the one-VaR solution in a wide range of intermediate market scenarios, but performs worse in good and very bad market scenarios. The range of these very bad market scenarios is however rather limited. Finally, we show that it is preferable to reach a fixed terminal state through insured intertemporal states rather than through extreme up and down movements, showing that a multiple-VaR framework induces a preference for less volatility.     

Large Deviations of the Threshold Estimator of Integrated (Co-)Volatility Vector in the Presence of Jumps

Recently considerable interest has been paid to the estimation problem of the realized volatility and covolatility by using high-frequency data of financial price processes in financial econometrics. Threshold estimation is one of the useful techniques in the inference for jump-type stochastic processes from discrete observations. In this paper, we adopt the threshold estimator introduced by Mancini (Scand Actuar J 1:42–52, 2004) where only the variations under a given threshold function are taken into account. The purpose of this work is to investigate large and moderate deviations for the threshold estimator of the integrated variance–covariance vector. This paper is an extension of the previous work in Djellout et al. (Stoch Process Appl 1–35, 2017), where the problem has been studied in the absence of a jump component. We will use the approximation lemma to prove large and moderate deviations results. As the reader can expect, we obtain the same results as in the case without jump.     

On the Conservativeness of Some Markov Processes

We give a unified method to obtain the conservativeness of a class of Markov processes associated with lower bounded semi-Dirichlet forms on L ²(X;m), including symmetric diffusion processes, some non-symmetric diffusion processes and jump type Markov processes on X, where X is a locally compact separable metric space and m is a positive Radon measure on X with full topological support. Using the method, we give an example in each section, providing the conservativeness of the processes, that are given by the “increasingness of the volume of some sets(balls)” and “that of the coefficients on the sets” of the Markov processes.     

Spurious regression due to neglected of non-stationary volatility

This paper examines the effects of permanent changes in the variance of the errors on routine applications of standard t-ratio test in regression models. It is shown the asymptotic distribution of t-ratio test is not invariant to non-stationary in variance, and the phenomenon of spurious regression will occur independently of the structure assumed for these time series. The intuition behind this is that the non-stationary volatility can increase persistency in the level of regression errors, which then leads to spurious correlation. Monte Carlo experiment evidence indicates that, in contrast to the broken level/trend case, the presence of spurious relationship critically depends on the location and magnitude of changes, regardless of the sample size. Finally, some real data sets from the Shanghai stock database are reported for illustration.     

A comparative assessment of different fuzzy regression methods for volatility forecasting

The aim of this paper is to compare different fuzzy regression methods in the assessment of the information content on future realised volatility of option-based volatility forecasts. These methods offer a suitable tool to handle both imprecision of measurements and fuzziness of the relationship among variables. Therefore, they are particularly useful for volatility forecasting, since the variable of interest (realised volatility) is unobservable and a proxy for it is used. Moreover, measurement errors in both realised volatility and volatility forecasts may affect the regression results. We compare both the possibilistic regression method of Tanaka et al. (IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 12:903–907, 1982) and the least squares fuzzy regression method of Savic and Pedrycz (Fuzzy Sets Syst 39:51–63, 1991). In our case study, based on intra-daily data of the DAX-index options market, both methods have proved to have advantages and disadvantages. Overall, among the two methods, we prefer the Savic and Pedrycz (Fuzzy Sets Syst 39:51–63, 1991) method, since it contains as special case (the central line) the ordinary least squares regression, is robust to the analysis of the variables in logarithmic terms or in levels, and provides sharper results than the Tanaka et al. (IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 12:903–907, 1982) method.     

On algebraic values of function $$\exp ~(2\pi i ~x+\log \log y)$$

It is proved that, for all but a finite set of the square-free integers, d the value of transcendental function \(\exp ~(2\pi i ~x+\log \log y)\) is an algebraic number for the algebraic arguments x and y lying in a real quadratic field of discriminant, d. Such a value generates the Hilbert class field of the imaginary quadratic field of discriminant, \(-d\).     

Using quadratic convex reformulation to tighten the convex relaxation of a quadratic program with complementarity constraints

Quadratic Convex Reformulation (QCR) is a technique that has been proposed for binary and mixed integer quadratic programs. In this paper, we extend the QCR method to convex quadratic programs with linear complementarity constraints (QPCCs). Due to the complementarity relationship between the nonnegative variables $y$ and $w$ , a term $y^{T}Dw$ can be added to the QPCC objective function, where $D$ is a nonnegative diagonal matrix chosen to maintain the convexity of the objective function and the global resolution of the QPCC. Following the QCR method, the products of linear equality constraints can also be used to perturb the QPCC objective function, with the goal that the new QP relaxation provides a tighter lower bound. By solving a semidefinite program, an equivalent QPCC can be obtained whose QP relaxation is as tight as possible. In addition, we extend the QCR to a general quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP), of which the QPCC is a special example. Computational tests on QPCCs are presented.     

An efficient compact quadratic convex reformulation for general integer quadratic programs

We address the exact solution of general integer quadratic programs with linear constraints. These programs constitute a particular case of mixed-integer quadratic programs for which we introduce in Billionnet et al. (Math. Program., 2010) a general solution method based on quadratic convex reformulation, that we called MIQCR. This reformulation consists in designing an equivalent quadratic program with a convex objective function. The problem reformulated by MIQCR has a relatively important size that penalizes its solution time. In this paper, we propose a convex reformulation less general than MIQCR because it is limited to the general integer case, but that has a significantly smaller size. We call this approach Compact Quadratic Convex Reformulation (CQCR). We evaluate CQCR from the computational point of view. We perform our experiments on instances of general integer quadratic programs with one equality constraint. We show that CQCR is much faster than MIQCR and than the general non-linear solver BARON (Sahinidis and Tawarmalani, User??s manual, 2010) to solve these instances. Then, we consider the particular class of binary quadratic programs. We compare MIQCR and CQCR on instances of the Constrained Task Assignment Problem. These experiments show that CQCR can solve instances that MIQCR and other existing methods fail to solve.     

Semidefinite relaxations of ordering problems

Ordering problems assign weights to each ordering and ask to find an ordering of maximum weight. We consider problems where the cost function is either linear or quadratic. In the first case, there is a given profit if the element $u$ is before $v$ in the ordering. In the second case, the profit depends on whether $u$ is before $v$ and $r$ is before $s$ . The linear ordering problem is well studied, with exact solution methods based on polyhedral relaxations. The quadratic ordering problem does not seem to have attracted similar attention. We present a systematic investigation of semidefinite optimization based relaxations for the quadratic ordering problem, extending and improving existing approaches. We show the efficiency of our relaxations by providing computational experience on a variety of problem classes.     

A Probabilistic Approach to Interior Regularity of Fully Nonlinear Degenerate Elliptic Equations in Smooth Domains

We consider the value function of a stochastic optimal control of degenerate diffusion processes in a domain D. We study the smoothness of the value function, under the assumption of the non-degeneracy of the diffusion term along the normal to the boundary and an interior condition weaker than the non-degeneracy of the diffusion term. When the diffusion term, drift term, discount factor, running payoff and terminal payoff are all in the class of $C^{1,1}(\bar{D})$ , the value function turns out to be the unique solution in the class of $C_{loc}^{1,1}(D)\cap C^{0,1}(\bar{D})$ to the associated degenerate Bellman equation with Dirichlet boundary data. Our approach is probabilistic.     

New zero-finders for trust-region computations

Trust-region methods are among the most popular schemes for determining a local minimum of a nonlinear function in several variables. These methods approximate the nonlinear function by a quadratic polynomial, and a trust-region radius determines the size of the sphere in which the quadratic approximation of the nonlinear function is deemed to be accurate. The trust-region radius has to be computed repeatedly during the minimization process. Each trust-region radius is computed by determining a zero of a nonlinear function ψ(x). This is often done with Newton’s method or a variation thereof. These methods give quadratic convergence of the computed approximations of the trust-region radius. This paper describes a cubically convergent zero-finder that is based on the observation that the second derivative \(\psi ^{\prime \prime }(x)\) can be evaluated inexpensively when the first derivative \(\psi ^{\prime }(x)\) is known. Computed examples illustrate the performance of the zero-finder proposed.     

金融系统的非线性分析:交易量对股价波动的非线性影响

如何研究股价波动和成交量之间的关系一直是金融系统研究中感兴趣的话题.Lamoureux 和 Lastrapes 认为选择日交易量度量每天流入市场的信息量是合理的,但他们假定交易量对波动率的影响是线性的.提出部分非线性GARCH模型分析交易量对股票市场波动率的影响,基于GARCH模型局部线性化非参数似然估计方法,对中国证券市场股票价格和交易量数据进行实证研究.结果表明,交易量对股价波动的影响具有显著的非线性性.     

Continued fractions for quadratic elements in formal power series

There exist certain quadratic elements α∈?((t ^?1)) over the rational function field ?(t) having nonperiodic continued fraction expansion, see W.M. Schmidt in (Acta Arith. 95(2):139–166, 2000). Hence we need a modification of Lagrange’s theorem with regard to function fields instead of number fields. In this paper, we introduce a class of continued fractions and describe Lagrange’s theorem as a conjecture related to quadratic elements over ?(t). We give some examples which support our conjecture.     

Displaced Diffusion as an Approximation of the Constant Elasticity of Variance

Abstract

The CEV (constant elasticity of variance) and displaced diffusion processes have been posited as suitable alternatives to a lognormal process in modelling the dynamics of market variables such as stock prices and interest rates. Marris (1999 Marris, D. 1999. Financial option pricing and skewed volatility, MPhil thesis, University of Cambridge.  [Google Scholar]) noted that, for a certain parameterization, option prices produced by the two processes display close correspondence across a range of strikes and maturities. This parametrization is a simple linearization of the CEV dynamics around the initial value of the underlying and we quantify the observed agreement in option prices by performing a small time expansion of the option prices around the forward-at-the-money value of the underlying. We show further results regarding the comparability of the conditional probability density functions of the two processes and hence the associated moments.     

Mixed-integer quadratic programming is in NP

Mixed-integer quadratic programming is the problem of optimizing a quadratic function over points in a polyhedral set where some of the components are restricted to be integral. In this paper, we prove that the decision version of mixed-integer quadratic programming is in NP, thereby showing that it is NP-complete. This is established by showing that if the decision version of mixed-integer quadratic programming is feasible, then there exists a solution of polynomial size. This result generalizes and unifies classical results that quadratic programming is in NP (Vavasis in Inf Process Lett 36(2):73–77 [17]) and integer linear programming is in NP (Borosh and Treybig in Proc Am Math Soc 55:299–304 [1], von zur Gathen and Sieveking in Proc Am Math Soc 72:155–158 [18], Kannan and Monma in Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol. 157, pp. 161–172. Springer [9], Papadimitriou in J Assoc Comput Mach 28:765–768 [15]).