A cyclical square-root model for the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a cyclical square-root model for the term structure of interest rates assuming that the spot rate converges to a certain time-dependent long-term level. This model incorporates the fact that the interest rate volatility depends on the interest rate level and specifies the mean reversion level and the interest rate volatility using harmonic oscillators. In this way, we incorporate a good deal of flexibility and provide a high analytical tractability. Under these assumptions, we compute closed-form expressions for the values of different fixed income and interest rate derivatives. Finally, we analyze the empirical performance of the cyclical model versus that proposed in Cox et al. (1985) and show that it outperforms this benchmark, providing a better fitting to market data.     

Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates

Most decision making research in real options focuses on revenue uncertainty assuming discount rates remain constant. However, for many decisions revenue or cost streams are relatively static and investment is driven by interest rate uncertainty, for example the decision to invest in durable machinery and equipment. Using interest rate models from Cox et al. (1985b), we generalize the work of Ingersoll and Ross (1992) in two ways. Firstly, we include real options on perpetuities (in addition to zero coupon cash flows). Secondly, we incorporate abandonment or disinvestment as well as investment options, and thus model interest rate hysteresis (parallel to revenue uncertainty in Dixit (1989a)). Under stochastic interest rates, economic hysteresis is found to be significant, even for small sunk costs.     

A note on the Flesaker-Hughston model of the term structure of interest rates

A term structure model proposed by Flesaker and Hughston (1996a,b) is analysed within the general framework of arbitrage-free term structure modelling. Basic valuation formulae for caps and swaptions are presented.     

Optimal investment consumption model with a higher interest rate for borrowing

This paper considers a consumption and investment decision problem with a higher interest rate for borrowing as well as the dividend rate. Wealth is divided into a riskless asset and risky asset with logrithmic Erownian motion price fluctuations. The stochastic control problem of maximizating expected utility from terminal wealth and consumption is studied. Equivalent conditions for optimality are obtained. By using duality methods ,the existence of optimal portfolio consumption is proved,and the explicit solutions leading to feedback formulae are derived for deteministic coefficients.     

Pricing model of interest rate swap with a bilateral default risk

Under the foundation of Duffie & Huang (1996) [7], this paper integrates the reduced form model and the structure model for a default risk measure, giving rise to a new pricing model of interest rate swap with a bilateral default risk. This model avoids the shortcomings of ignoring the dynamic movements of the firm’s assets of the reduced form model but adds only a little complexity and simplifies the pricing formula significantly when compared with Li (1998) [10]. With the help of the Crank-Nicholson difference method, we give the numerical solutions of the new model to study the default risk effects on the swap rate. We find that for a one year interest rate swap with the coupon paid per quarter, the variance of the default fixed rate payer decreases from 0.1 to 0.01 only causing about a 1.35%’s increase in the swap rate. This is consistent with previous results.     

Numerical solution of a PDE model for a ratchet-cap pricing with BGM interest rate dynamics

In this paper we present a new numerical method to price an interest rate derivative. The financial product consists of a particular ratchet cap contract which contains a set of ratchet caplets. For this purpose, we first pose the PDE pricing model for each ratchet caplet by means of Feynman-Kac theorem. The underlying interest rates are the forward LIBOR rates, the dynamics of which are assumed to follow the recently introduced BGM (LMM) market model. For the set of PDEs associated to the ratchet caplets pricing problems, we propose a second order Crank-Nicolson characteristics time discretization scheme combined with a finite element discretization in the interest rate variables. In order to illustrate the performance of the numerical methods, we present an academic test and a real example of a particular ratchet cap pricing. In the second case, a comparison between the results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and the proposed method is presented.     

An artificial boundary method for the Hull-White model of American interest rate derivatives

The Hull-White (HW) model is a widely used one-factor interest rate model because of its analytical tractability on liquidly traded derivatives, super-calibration ability to the initial term structure and elegant tree-building procedure. As an explicit finite difference scheme, lattice method is subject to some stability criteria, which may deteriorate the computational efficiency for early exercisable derivatives. This paper proposes an artificial boundary method based on the partial differential equations (PDEs) to price interest rate derivatives with early exercise (American) feature under the HW model. We construct conversion factors to extract the market information from the zero-coupon curve and then reduce the infinite computational domain into a finite one by using an artificial boundary on which an exact boundary condition is derived. We then develop an implicit θ-scheme with unconditional stability to solve the PDE in the reduced bounded domain. With a finite computational domain, the optimal exercise strategy can be determined efficiently. Our numerical examples show that the proposed scheme is accurate, robust to the truncation size, and more efficient than the popular lattice method for accurate derivative prices. In addition, the singularity-separating technique is incorporated into the artificial boundary method to enhance accuracy and flexibility of the numerical scheme.     

A numerical method to price European derivatives based on the one factor LIBOR Market Model of interest rates

We consider the problem of pricing European interest rate derivatives based on the LIBOR Market Model (LMM) with one driving factor. We derive a closed-form approximation of the transition probability density functions associated to the stochastic dynamical systems that describe the behaviour of the forward LIBOR interest rates in the LMM. These approximate formulae are based on a truncated power series expansion of the solutions of the Fokker–Planck equations associated to the LMM. The approximate probability density functions obtained are used to price European interest rate derivatives using the method of discounted expectations. The resulting integrals are low dimensional when the most commonly traded European interest rate derivatives are considered, and they can be computed efficiently using elementary numerical quadrature schemes (i.e. Simpson’s rule). The algorithm obtained is very well suited for parallel computing and is tested on the problem of pricing several derivatives including an European swaption and an interest rate spread option. In both cases, the method proposed in this paper appears to be accurate (i.e. relative error of order 10⁻², 10⁻³, or even 10⁻⁴) and approximately between 278 and 63 000 times faster than previous methods based on the Monte Carlo simulation of the LMM stochastic dynamical systems.

The website http://www.econ.univpm.it/pacelli/ballestra/finance/w2 contains material that helps the understanding of this paper and makes available to the interested users the computer programs that implement the numerical method proposed.     

Option pricing under joint dynamics of interest rates, dividends, and stock prices

This paper proposes a unified framework for option pricing, which integrates the stochastic dynamics of interest rates, dividends, and stock prices under the transversality condition. Using the Vasicek model for the spot rate dynamics, I compare the framework with two existing option pricing models. The main implication is that the stochastic spot rate affects options not only directly but also via an endogenously determined dividend yield and return volatility; consequently, call prices can be decreasing with respect to interest rates.     

Generating interest rate scenarios for bank asset liability management

Over the last years the Second European Directive on Banking and Financial services demand that financial institutions develop asset liability management tools to identify and measure the various financial risks they encounter. The present paper develops a goal programming ALM model with a simulation analysis, to assist a commercial bank in managing its exposure to interest rate risk taking into account a duration gap framework. An application of the ALM model takes place on a large commercial bank of Greece.     

Ruin problems for a discrete time risk model with random interest rate

In this paper, we study a discrete time risk model with random interest rate. The convergence of the discounted surplus process is proved by using martingale techniques, an expression of ruin probability is obtained, and bounds for ruin probability are included. In the second part of the paper, the distribution of surplus immediately after ruin, the distribution of surplus just before ruin, the joint distribution of the surplus immediately before and after ruin, and the distribution of ruin time are discussed.     

An inventory model with generalized type demand,deterioration and backorder rates

This study is motivated by the paper of Skouri et al. [Skouri, Konstantaras, Papachristos, Ganas, European Journal of Operational Research 192 (1) (2009) 79–92]. We extend their inventory model from ramp type demand rate and Weibull deterioration rate to arbitrary demand rate and arbitrary deterioration rate in the consideration of partial backorder. We demonstrate that the optimal solution is actually independent of demand. That is, for a finite time horizon, any attempt at tackling targeted inventory models under ramp type or any other types of the demand becomes redundant. Our analytical approach dramatically simplifies the solution procedure.     

Eurodollar futures pricing in log-normal interest rate models in discrete time

We demonstrate the appearance of explosions in three quantities in interest rate models with log-normally distributed rates in discrete time. (1) The expectation of the money market account in the Black, Derman, Toy model, (2) the prices of Eurodollar futures contracts in a model with log-normally distributed rates in the terminal measure and (3) the prices of Eurodollar futures contracts in the one-factor log-normal Libor market model (LMM). We derive exact upper and lower bounds on the prices and on the standard deviation of the Monte Carlo pricing of Eurodollar futures in the one factor log-normal Libor market model. These bounds explode at a non-zero value of volatility, and thus imply a limitation on the applicability of the LMM and on its Monte Carlo simulation to sufficiently low volatilities.     

Convergence of branching transport processes to branching brownian motion

Two models are given of branching transport processes that converge to branching Brownian motion starting with one initial particle. The martingale problem method is used.     

Exponential Bounds for Ruin Probability in Two Moving Average Risk Models with Constant Interest Rate

The authors consider two discrete-time insurance risk models. Two moving average risk models are introduced to model the surplus process, and the probabilities of ruin are examined in models with a constant interest force. Exponential bounds for ruin probabilities of an infinite time horizon are derived by the martingale method.     

Investors’ preference for a positive tax rate depends on the level of the interest rate

In a financial market with only one stock, Cadenillas and Pliska (Financ Stoch 3:137–165, 1999) showed that sometimes investors can take advantage of a positive tax rate to maximize their portfolio return. Buescu et al. (Math Finance 17:477–485, 2007) generalized this surprising result to a market with one stock and one bank account with zero interest rate. We consider instead a financial market with one stock and one bank account with positive interest rate. As in the papers above, we assume that there are taxes and transaction costs in the financial market. We succeed in solving the problem of an investor who wants to maximize the long-run growth rate of his investment, even though the positivity of the interest rate increases the dimensionality of the problem and the difficulty of the computations. We characterize how the investors’ preference for a positive tax rate depends on the interest rate level: investors prefer a positive tax rate when the level of the interest rate is low, and the opposite occurs when the level of the interest rate is high. Most of the contributions of C. Buescu were made during his doctoral studies at the University of Alberta. The research of C. Buescu and A. Cadenillas was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada grants 410-2003-1401 and 410-2006-1069. We are grateful to Stanley R. Pliska for comments and suggestions to a previous version of the paper, and to the associate editor and referees for constructive remarks. Existing errors are our sole responsibility.     

随机利率下亚式期权的定价模型

§1Introduction Asianoptionpayoffdependsontheaverageofassetpricesoverthelifeofoptions.Theirpopularityistoavoidthepossiblepricemanipulationatthematuritydatefor ordinaryoptions.ItturnsouttobedifficulttoderiveBlack-Scholes-likeclosed-form formulaforAsianoptionsbecausethedistributionofarithmetic-averageassetpricesdoes nothavestandardexpression.AlotofworkhasbeendoneonpricingAsianoptionssince KemmaandVorst(1990).Manytreatmentsdealwiththecaseofgeometricaverageforthe firststepeitherasanapproximatio…     

The role of the dependence between mortality and interest rates when pricing Guaranteed Annuity Options

In this paper we investigate the consequences on the pricing of insurance contingent claims when we relax the typical independence assumption made in the actuarial literature between mortality risk and interest rate risk. Starting from the Gaussian approach of Liu et al. (2014), we consider some multifactor models for the mortality and interest rates based on more general affine models which remain positive and we derive pricing formulas for insurance contracts like Guaranteed Annuity Options (GAOs). In a Wishart affine model, which allows for a non-trivial dependence between the mortality and the interest rates, we go far beyond the results found in the Gaussian case by Liu et al. (2014), where the value of these insurance contracts can be explained only in terms of the initial pairwise linear correlation.     

Ruin problems for an autoregressive risk model with dependent rates of interest

In this paper, we consider a discrete insurance risk model in which the claims, the premiums and the rates of interest are assumed to have dependent autoregressive structures (AR(1)). We derive recursive and integral equations for expected discounted penalty function. By these equations, we obtain generalized Lundberg inequality for the infinite time severity of ruin and hence for the infinite time ruin probability, consider asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability when loss distributions have regularly varying tails, and study some probability properties of the duration of ruin.     

一类具有随机利率的跳扩散模型的期权定价

假定股票价格的跳过程为比Po isson过程更一般的跳过程一类特殊的更新过程,在风险中性的假设下,推导出了具有随机利率的跳扩散模型的欧式期权定价公式.从而推广了文[3]的结果.