创新企业种群成长动力学分析

以生物系统中种群动力学为主要理论依据,开发了创新种群成长动力学模型.方程组推导结果表明:创新种群的成长过程中存在一定的均衡条件.科研种群是创新创群的主要互动种群.创新种群和科研种群之间存在显著地激励机制,两类种群对创新资源的占用存在一定的比例关系.创新种群的增长收到多种环境因素的影响,政府部门、服务机构、科研种群的影响均不同.创新种群的总量平衡点受总体环境制约.创新种群的增量平衡点主要受科研种群影响.     

一类食物链模型的全局定性分析

文系统地研究了由一个食饵种群和两个捕食者种群所构成的食物链系统.结论表明：种群间的相互作用可以导致两个捕食者种群灭绝或一个捕食者种群灭绝,或者所有三个种群能以稳定的正平衡态或振动解的形式共存.利用MATLAB软件,该文提供了两个例子来模拟这些结论.     

基于灰色种群动力学的企业创新种群成长区域关联研究

以种群动力学为主要理论依据,考虑企业创新种群的空间关联性,开发了企业创新种群成长动力学模型.研究某一区域企业创新种群内部,以及相邻区域企业创新种群之间的影响关系.以华东地区各省市的相关数据为例进行实证分析.基于种群规模的灰色性,构建灰色种群动力学模型.分析结果表明,考虑空间关联性的灰色种群动力学模型适合分析企业创新种群内和种群间关系.华东地区各省市企业创新种群的竞争与协同关系呈现出多样性的特点.对其关系的研究有利于优化不同区域的企业创新成长环境.     

马尔可夫骨架过程在种群动态学中的应用

本文借助于马尔可夫骨架过程（舱妒）方法研究了种群动态学中单种群种群数量的瞬时分布，并证明单种群种群数量在时刻t的瞬时分布是某一非负线性方程的最小非负解。     

脉冲输入毒素对具有阶段结构的单种群生存影响的研究

研究了一类小容量污染环境中脉冲输入毒素对具有阶段结构的单种群生存问题,分别找到了种群生存与灭绝的阈值,利用不等式放缩技巧,得到了种群灭绝和持久生存的充分条件.利用MATLAB数值仿真,验证了理论结果的正确性,分析了毒素输入量,毒素输入周期及种群成长时间对种群生存的影响.     

基于年龄结构的种群系统的最优收获控制

研究一类带年龄结构的非线性种群系统的最优收获问题.建立单种群阶段结构模型,对成年、幼年种群同时捕获,得到了单种群阶段结构模型在正平衡点渐近稳定的充分条件;并给出了脉冲控制时间间隔的上界估计值.分别对其幼年种群和成年种群捕获问题,给出以最大捕获可持续均衡收获(M SY)为目标的最优捕获策略.     

基于独立性的组织种群共生演化稳定性比较研究

运用Logistic模型对存在依存关系但相互独立性不同的组织种群共生演化稳定性进行了研究.发现种群独立性和种群间相互贡献度将对组织种群的共生稳定性将产生影响.     

污染环境中的非自治种群模型的生存分析

研究了环境污染对种群的长期影响.考虑到新生个体的出生对种群体内毒素的影响,以及死亡的种群个体将体内毒素带回环境,建立了一个非自治数学模型.主要运用比较定理得到了种群一致持续生存、弱持续生存以及绝灭的判据.     

一类捕食者具有阶段结构的捕食——被捕食模型的全局性态分析

在假设捕食的受益是减少死亡下,建立了一类捕食种群具有阶段结构的捕食-被捕食模型,分析得到了不存在食饵种群情形下捕食者种群模型和食饵存在时捕食-被捕食模型的平衡点存在性和全局稳定性,并确定了决定模型动力学性态的捕食者种群基本再生数、捕食存在时的食饵种群净增长率以及食饵灭绝与否的捕食率阈值.     

污染环境中的Leslie系统

研究了环境污染对Leslie资源-消费者系统中消费者种群的长期影响．考虑到种群数量的变化对种群体内毒素浓度和环境毒素浓度的影响,建立了一个新的数学模型, 给出了消费者种群弱持续生存和绝灭的判据,并在一定条件下得到了弱持续生存与绝灭的阈值．     

Stability and periodic solutions for a model of bacterial resistance to antibiotics caused by mutations and plasmids

Bacterial resistance is one of the most prominent public health problems affecting the entire world population. Although some infectious diseases are no longer a problem as they were in the past, the acquisition of bacterial resistance continues to increase. In particular, antibiotics have been losing their effectiveness after decades of misuse and overuse, which has generated an emergency situation. In this work, we formulate and analyse a deterministic model for the population dynamics of susceptible and resistant bacteria to antibiotics, assuming that drug resistance is acquired through mutations and plasmid transmission. Qualitative analysis reveals the existence of a bacteria-free equilibrium, a resistant bacteria equilibrium, an a coexistence equilibrium and a limit cycle arising from Hopf bifurcation. The stability of the equilibria are given in terms of the growth rate of bacteria, the acquisition of resistance, as well as the elimination of bacteria due to the immune system and the action of antibiotics. Numerical simulations corroborate our analytical results, and illustrate the temporal dynamics of the susceptible and resistant bacteria.     

Mathematical analysis of a three-strain tuberculosis transmission model

In recent years, bacteria have become resistant to antibiotics, leading to a decline in the effectiveness of antibiotics in treating infectious diseases. A mathematical model for multi-strain tuberculosis transmission dynamics to assess the burden of drug-sensitive, multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis is formulated and analyzed. Each single strain submodel is shown to exhibit backward bifurcation when the threshold parameter is less than unity. Both analytical and numerical results show that resistance to drugs increase with increase in drug use, that is, active tuberculosis treatment results in a reduction of drug sensitive and increase in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Furthermore, use of second line drugs results in a decrease of the multidrug-resistant and increase of extensively drug resistant tuberculosis as most cases of multidrug resistant tuberculosis occur as a result of inappropriate, misuse or mismanaged treatment. Both the analytic results and numerical simulations suggest that quarantine of extensively drug resistant TB cases in addition to treatment of other forms of TB may be able to reduce the spread of the epidemic in poor resource-settings.     

ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE PERSISTENCE OF ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE

Abstract According to the dynamic relationship between antibiotic use and the incidence of multidrug‐resistant bacteria, the effectiveness of antibiotics is characterized as a natural resource exploited by antibiotic use. A major question is whether antibiotic effectiveness should be considered a renewable or an exhaustible resource. This paper presents a model combining epidemiological aspects of the decrease of resistance over time with an economic approach, modeling antimicrobial resistance as a negative externality of antibiotic use. The article concludes that the relative fitness of resistant bacteria is one driving factor for an estimation of the externality. If we, for instance, assume a low degree of relative fitness of resistant bacteria it is shown that resistance decreases fastest directly after antibiotic treatment. Accordingly, cycling of nonidentical drugs improves antibiotic effectiveness because cycling lowers the frequency of use of the individual antibiotic. In this case, antibiotic effectiveness must be characterized as a renewable resource in much the same way as a stock of fish in a lake. In contrast, if we assume a high degree of relative fitness of resistant bacteria, antibiotic effectiveness must be treated as an exhaustible resource because it is declined by every use of antibiotics.     

Conceptual Representations of Flu and Microbial Illness Held by Students,Teachers, and Medical Professionals

This study describes 5 th, 8th, and 11th‐grade students', teachers', and medical professionals' conceptions of flu and microbial illness. Participants constructed a concept map on “flu” and participated in a semi‐structured interview. The results showed that these groups of students, teachers and medical professionals held and structured their conceptions about microbes differently. A progression toward more accurate and complete knowledge existed across the groups but this trajectory was not always a predictable, linear developmental path from novice to expert. Across the groups, participants were most knowledgeable about symptoms of microbial illness, treatments of symptoms, and routes of transmission for respiratory illnesses. This knowledge was tightly linked to participants' prior experiences with colds and flu. There were typically large gaps in participants' (children and teachers) understandings of vaccines, immune system responses, treatments (including the mechanisms of pain medications and the functions of antibiotics), and transmission of non‐respiratory microbial illness. A common misconception held by students was the belief that antibiotics can cure viral infections.     

Modelling and solving fixed-bed adsorption

In this paper we develop a mathematical model for packed-bed adsorption of a single component, directed toward the purification of β-lactamic antibiotics. The model describes the removal of sorbates from an aqueous stream entering a bed packed with spherical sorbent particles. Then, assuming that the adsorption isotherm is linear, an exact solution for this model is found.     

Modeling basic aspects of bacterial resistance of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mycobacterium tuberculosis</Emphasis> to antibiotics

In this work we study the effect of antibiotics treatment and the immune system in the development of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection through the formulation and analysis of a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations. The results are given in terms of forward and backward bifurcation and they reveal the importance of combining a suitable treatment with a good stimulation of the immune system.     

Announcing the Burtin graphic contest winners

The graphics contest announced in Volume 23, Issue 4, of CHANCE asked readers to create a display of a 1951 data set on antibiotic effectiveness. The three winners of the contest are Mark Nicolich, Brian Schmotzer, and Dibyojyoti Haldar. The winners’ graphs are different, yet communicate the same information—each compares the antibiotics and bacteria and succinctly summarizes the influence of the gram staining factor.     

Mathematical analysis of a model describing the number of antibiotic resistant bacteria in a polluted river

In France, 90% of surface water suffer from antibiotic pollution that increases the number of antibiotic resistant bacteria. The first indicator of water quality is revealed by the fish quality. According to the Le Conseil Supérieur de la Pêche, only 15% of rivers in France are considered in good condition, whereas 22% are in very bad condition. The bacterial resistance to antibiotics is a public health problem as it affects humans through drinking water; the treatment of water is costly. Mathematical modeling may estimate and predict the quantity of bacteria in rivers. In this paper, we investigate properties of the mathematical model estimating the number of bacteria in a river presented by Lawrence, Mummert and Somerville. Global analysis of equilibria is presented, using a Lyapunov function. Moreover, the existence of positive periodic solutions is proven. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市老旧居住小区交通环境评价指标与评价方法

定量的评判城市老旧居住小区整体交通环境质量并进而科学有效的提出老旧小区交通环境更新与改善措施,对城市老旧居住小区交通环境进行了调查,明确了老旧居住小区存在的突出交通问题,并提出了城市老旧居住小区交通环境评价的指标体系,包括行人跨路出行指数、无人行道路段长度占比、停车泊位供需比、路内非法停车占比、平均停车步行距离、泊位数量户数比、人均步行空间、无障碍通道、盲道设置比例、非机动车泊位供需比、地面停放车辆数小区面积比、外部穿行交通周转量小区面积比等。并给出了具体指标的计算方法与获得办法。以长沙市四个典型老旧居住小区为例,对评价方法进行了论证,并得到城市老旧居住小区存在的一般问题,包括人车混杂、人车交织现象严重,停车泊位短缺、车辆乱停乱放,交通设施、特别是弱势群体交通设施缺乏。给出的评价指标、评价方法与结论可为城市老旧小区改造更新,特别是其中很重要的交通环境更新提供决策依据。