Recursive estimation for continuous time stochastic volatility models

Volatility plays an important role in portfolio management and option pricing. Recently, there has been a growing interest in modeling volatility of the observed process by nonlinear stochastic process [S.J. Taylor, Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction, Princeton University Press, 2005; H. Kawakatsu, Specification and estimation of discrete time quadratic stochastic volatility models, Journal of Empirical Finance 14 (2007) 424–442]. In [H. Gong, A. Thavaneswaran, J. Singh, Filtering for some time series models by using transformation, Math Scientist 33 (2008) 141–147], we have studied the recursive estimates for discrete time stochastic volatility models driven by normal errors. In this paper, we study the recursive estimates for various classes of continuous time nonlinear non-Gaussian stochastic volatility models used for option pricing in finance.     

Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models based on OU processes with marginal Gamma law

This paper discusses practical Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models based on OU processes with marginal Gamma laws. Estimation is based on a parameterization which is derived from the Rosiński representation, and has the advantage of being a non-centered parameterization. The parameterization is based on a marked point process, living on the positive real line, with uniformly distributed marks. We define a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme which enables multiple updates of the latent point process, and generalizes single updating algorithm used earlier. At each MCMC draw more than one point is added or deleted from the latent point process. This is particularly useful for high intensity processes. Furthermore, the article deals with superposition models, where it discuss how the identifiability problem inherent in the superposition model may be avoided by the use of a Markov prior. Finally, applications to simulated data as well as exchange rate data are discussed.     

Parameter estimation of partially observed continuous time stochastic processes via the EM algorithm

An algorithm is presented for the problem of maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of parameters of partially observed continuous time random processes. This algorithm is an extension of the EM algorithm [3] used in the time series literature, and preserves its main features. It is then applied to the problem of parameter estimation of continuous time, finite state or infinite state (diffusions) Markov processes observed via a noisy sensor. The algorithm in general involves iterations of non-linear smoothing with known parameters and then a non-stochastic maximization. For special cases, including linear models and AR/ARMA processes observed in white noise, each iteration is easily performed with finite dimensional filters. Finally, the algorithm is applied to parameter estimation of “randomly slowly varying” linear systems observed in white noise, and explicit results are derived.     

Optimal kernel estimation of spot volatility of stochastic differential equations

A unified framework to optimally select the bandwidth and kernel function of spot volatility kernel estimators is put forward. The proposed models include not only classical Brownian motion driven dynamics but also volatility processes that are driven by long-memory fractional Brownian motions or other Gaussian processes. We characterize the leading order terms of the mean squared error, which in turn enables us to determine an explicit formula for the leading term of the optimal bandwidth. Central limit theorems for the estimation error are also obtained. A feasible plug-in type bandwidth selection procedure is then proposed, for which, as a sub-problem, a new estimator of the volatility of volatility is developed. The optimal selection of the kernel function is also investigated. For Brownian Motion type volatilities, the optimal kernel turns out to be an exponential function, while, for fractional Brownian motion type volatilities, easily implementable numerical results to compute the optimal kernels are devised. Simulation studies further confirm the good performance of the proposed methods.     

On filtering and estimation of a threshold stochastic volatility model

We derive a nonlinear filter and the corresponding filter-based estimates for a threshold autoregressive stochastic volatility (TARSV) model. Using the technique of a reference probability measure, we derive a nonlinear filter for the hidden volatility and related quantities. The filter-based estimates for the unknown parameters are then obtained from the EM algorithm.     

State-space stochastic volatility models: A review of estimation algorithms

Stochastic volatility models (SVMs) represent an important framework for the analysis of financial time series data, together with ARCH-type models; but unlike the latter, the former, at least from the statistical point of view, cannot rely on the possibility of obtaining exact inference, in particular with regard to maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters of interest. For SVMs, usually only approximate results can be obtained, unless particularly sophisticated estimation strategies like exact non-gaussian filtering methods or simulation techniques are employed. In this paper we review SVM and present a new characterization for them, called ‘generalized bilinear stochastic volatility’. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regime-switching stochastic volatility model: estimation and calibration to VIX options

We develop and implement a method for maximum likelihood estimation of a regime-switching stochastic volatility model. Our model uses a continuous time stochastic process for the stock dynamics with the instantaneous variance driven by a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process and each parameter modulated by a hidden Markov chain. We propose an extension of the EM algorithm through the Baum–Welch implementation to estimate our model and filter the hidden state of the Markov chain while using the VIX index to invert the latent volatility state. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we test the convergence of our algorithm and compare it with an approximate likelihood procedure where the volatility state is replaced by the VIX index. We found that our method is more accurate than the approximate procedure. Then, we apply Fourier methods to derive a semi-analytical expression of S&P500 and VIX option prices, which we calibrate to market data. We show that the model is sufficiently rich to encapsulate important features of the joint dynamics of the stock and the volatility and to consistently fit option market prices.     

Properties of some stochastic processes arising in estimation theory

Sample functions of random processes are used to make inferences about the properties of estimators. In particular, it is proved that optimal equivariant sequential estimation designs with stopping timet such that Εt n ₁, are better than optimal equivariant estimation of the location parameter for samples of sizen, with largen. It is assumed that the density has cusps of first or second kind.     

Unbiased truncated quadratic variation for volatility estimation in jump diffusion processes

The problem of integrated volatility estimation for an Ito semimartingale is considered under discrete high-frequency observations in short time horizon. We provide an asymptotic expansion for the integrated volatility that gives us, in detail, the contribution deriving from the jump part. The knowledge of such a contribution allows us to build an unbiased version of the truncated quadratic variation, in which the bias is visibly reduced. In earlier results to have the original truncated realized volatility well-performed the condition $\beta >\frac{1}{2(2-\alpha )}$ on $\beta$ (that is such that ${\left(\frac{1}{n}\right)}^{\beta }$ is the threshold of the truncated quadratic variation) and on the degree of jump activity $\alpha$ was needed (see Mancini, 2011; Jacod, 2008). In this paper we theoretically relax this condition and we show that our unbiased estimator achieves excellent numerical results for any couple ($\alpha$, $\beta$).     

Estimation of integrated volatility in stochastic volatility models

In the framework of stochastic volatility models we examine estimators for the integrated volatility based on the pth power variation (i.e. the sum of pth absolute powers of the log‐returns). We derive consistency and distributional results for the estimators given high‐frequency data, especially taking into account what kind of process we may add to our model without affecting the estimate of the integrated volatility. This may on the one hand be interpreted as a possible flexibility in modelling, for example adding jumps or even leaving the framework of semimartingales by adding a fractional Brownian motion, or on the other hand as robustness against model misspecification. We will discuss possible choices of p under different model assumptions and irregularly spaced data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stochastic volatility factor model of heston type. Statistical properties and estimation

In this paper we study the properties of a new multidimensional continuous-time stochastic covariance process, the Stochastic Volatility Factor model. Two helpful conditional characteristic functions, one needed for estimation and the other used in the pricing of financial derivatives are provided, together with the properties of the instantaneous dependence structure. Conditions for stationarity, ergodicity and mixing properties of the increments are studied. The estimation of the model is performed using the Continuum-Generalized Method of Moments (CGMM). A simulation exercise is included showing parameters are recovered, confirming identifiability. The model is also calibrated to exemplary financial data.     

Periodic autoregressive stochastic volatility

This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model (PAR-SV) in which the log-volatility follows a first-order periodic autoregression. This model aims at representing time series with volatility displaying a stochastic periodic dynamic structure, and may then be seen as an alternative to the familiar periodic GARCH process. The probabilistic structure of the proposed PAR-SV model such as periodic stationarity and autocovariance structure are first studied. Then, parameter estimation is examined through the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method where the likelihood is evaluated using the prediction error decomposition approach and Kalman filtering. In addition, a Bayesian MCMC method is also considered, where the posteriors are given from conjugate priors using the Gibbs sampler in which the augmented volatilities are sampled from the Griddy Gibbs technique in a single-move way. As a-by-product, period selection for the PAR-SV is carried out using the (conditional) deviance information criterion (DIC). A simulation study is undertaken to assess the performances of the QML and Bayesian Griddy Gibbs estimates in finite samples while applications of Bayesian PAR-SV modeling to daily, quarterly and monthly S&P 500 returns are considered.     

On information inequalities in sequential estimation for stochastic processes

Information inequalities in a general sequential model for stochastic processes are presented by applying the approach to estimation through estimating functions. Using this approach, Bayesian versions of the information inequalities are also obtained. In particular, exponential-family processes and counting processes are considered. The results are useful to find optimum properties of parameter estimators. The assertions are of great importance for describing estimators in failure-repair models in both Bayes approach and the nuisance parameter case.     

On restricted linear estimation for regression in stochastic processes

In this paper the problem of restricted linear estimation for regression in stochastic processes is analyzed from different viewpoints, using RKHS methods. Of special interest is a relationship with an extended regression problem. Applications of the results to finite dimensional situations are also given.     

Hilbert space representations of general discrete time stochastic processes

We show that under mild conditions the joint densities Px₁,…,x_n) of the general discrete time stochastic process X_n on $\text{pH}$ can be computed via

$\text{Px}{}_1\text{,…,x}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{(x}{}_1\text{,…,x}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{) = 6?T(x}{}_1\text{)…T(x}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)6}{}^2$

where ? is in a Hilbert space $\text{pH}$, and T (x), x ? $\text{pH}$ are linear operators on $\text{pH}$. We then show how the Central Limit Theorem can easily be derived from such representations.