离散的SI和SIS传染病模型的研究

为了描述个体的死亡、染病者的恢复以及疾病的传染,引入了相应的概率.基于总种群中个体数量为常数的假设,根据染病者能否恢复分别建立了具有生命动力学的离散SI和SIS传染病模型.所得到的结果显示:它们具有与相应连续模型相同的动力学性态,并确定了各自的阈值.在它们的阈值之下,传染病最终将灭绝;在它们的阈值之上,传染病将会发展成为地方病,染病者的数量将趋向于一确定的正常数.     

报童模型及ARMA预测在航空配餐问题中的应用

航班承载人数的不确定性,造成航空公司在配餐中利润的流失,现存的配餐模式存在较多的浪费.本文利用基于损失厌恶的报童模型和ARMA时间序列分析模型对深圳航空公司某航班的配餐份数进行了建模分析和预测,并通过对两种模型输出的比较,得出了长期预测与短期预测的模型应用理论.将实际的历史数据代人到模型中验证,其结果优于经验模式下的配餐盈利情况.本文所采用的研究方法和研究结果对航空公司的精益发展有建设性的意义.     

高中数学专题研究的一个案例──关于沪闵路─春申路口红绿灯时间设置合理性的研究

一、专题的背景与分析 　　1. 背景 　　闵行区的沪闵路─春申路口是交通特别拥挤的交叉路口之一.家住莘庄地区的同学有一个共同的感受,在他们到校或回家路上必经的沪闵路─春申路口时常遇到塞车现象.……     

巧解一道"牛吃草"问题

"牛吃草"问题又称为消长问题,是17世纪英国伟大的科学家牛顿提出来的.典型牛吃草问题的条件是假设草的生长速度固定不变,不同头数的牛吃光同一片草地所需的天数各不相同,求若干头牛吃这片草地可以吃多少天.由于吃的天数不同,草又是天天在生长的,所以草的存量随吃的天数不断地变化.……     

大钟与六位密码

福尔摩西接到电话的时候正在翻看一本关于城中富翁艾伦王的传奇故事。艾伦王年少时靠贩卖廉价的小闹钟起家,经过几十年的辛勤努力,把自己的事业拓展成了最有名的钟表公司,是本市最有名的富翁。艾伦王年纪已经很大了,身体也不好。他的儿女众多,但是他们和艾伦王的关系并不融洽。大家都猜测他们对艾伦王的财富虎视眈眈。"喂,福尔摩西吗?"约翰焦急的声音从电话那头传过来。"是我。"福尔摩西回应道。     

Drucker-Prager准则可靠度解析

视岩体强度参数为正态分布随机变量,以可靠度理论为基础,推导了Drucker-Prager准则可靠度判别的解析表达式,并通过Monte-Carlo法和一次可靠度方法验证了其正确性.应用所得到的公式分析了岩体强度参数的变异性对屈服准则判别结果的影响.结果表明,强度参数的变异性对Drucker-Prager准则可靠概率的影响程度不尽相同,在变异系数较大的情况下,它们对可靠概率的影响显著,不可忽略.为岩体屈服的可靠度判别提供了一条新思路.     

导数在高考命题中的"五大"热点

导数作为大学的重要内容,进入中学数学教材后,给传统的内容注入了生机与活力,为中学数学命题的研究提供了新视角,新方法.由于导数是研究函数性质的一个很好的工具,它的用途十分广泛,它在解决函数、不等式、解析几何等问题有独到的功能.因此,近几年的高考正逐年加大对导数问题的考查力度,本文通过对07年全国各地高考题的整理和分析寻找命题规律,希望能对今后的教学提供一点复习思路.……     

股票收益率和新息的尾部估计

利用极值理论来考虑上证综指收益率的尾部.为了选择合理的超越门限,采用平均剩余函数和De-Haan矩估计相结合的方法.在学生t分布和广义误差分布的新患假设下,用GARCH和EGARCH新息的ARMA模型拟合指数收益率,并且使用极值理论的极大似然方法估计模型残差的尾指,估计结果表明收益率的尾指和模型的残差尾指基本一致.     

神奇的骰子

骰子在许多游戏中出现,特别是赌博游戏,当中蕴含了丰富的数学知识,引起了许多数学爱好者们的关注和研究.一个普通的骰子是正六面体,它的六个面分别为数字1,2,3,4,5,6,还有许多不同的骰子、不同的玩法,充满了神奇,但神奇的骰子背后离不开数学知识的支撑.本文将介绍三     

也谈立体几何中的轨迹问题——从一道调考试题说起

2010-2011学年度武汉市部分学校新高三起点调研测试的一道试题引起了我的注意.原题如下: 在正四面体P-ABC中,M为△ABC内(含边界)一动点,且点M到三个侧面PAB,PBC,PCA的距离成等差数列,则点M的轨迹是 A.一条线段 B.椭圆的一部分 C.双曲线的一部分 D.抛物线的一部分     

Graphical Diagnostics for Markov Models for Categorical Data

Markov models are widely used as a method for describing categorical data that exhibit stationary and nonstationary autocorrelation. However, diagnostic methods are a largely overlooked topic for Markov models. We introduce two types of residuals for this purpose: one for assessing the length of runs between state changes, and the other for assessing the frequency with which the process moves from any given state to the other states. Methods for calculating the sampling distribution of both types of residuals are presented, enabling objective interpretation through graphical summaries. The graphical summaries are formed using a modification of the probability integral transformation that is applicable for discrete data. Residuals from simulated datasets are presented to demonstrate when the model is, and is not, adequate for the data. The two types of residuals are used to highlight inadequacies of a model posed for real data on seabed fauna from the marine environment.

Supplemental materials, including an R-package RMC with functions to perform the diagnostic measures on the class of models considered in this article, are at the journal’s website. The R-package is also available at CRAN.     

Existence results for Hughes' model for pedestrian flows

In this paper we prove two global existence results for Hughes' model for pedestrian flows under assumptions that ensure that the traces of the solutions along the turning curve are zero for all positive times.     

Appropriate problems for learning and for performing—an issue for teacher training

Selecting, modifying or creating appropriate problems for mathematics class has become an activity of increaing importance in the professional development of German mathematics teachers. But rather than asking in general: “What is a good problem?” there should be a stronger emphasis on considering the specific goal of a problem, e.g.: “What are the ingredients that make a problem appropriate for initiating a learning process” or “What are the characteristics that make a problem appropriate for its use in a central test?” We propose a guiding scheme for teachers that turns out to be especially helpful, since the newly introduced orientation on outcome standards a) leads to a critical predominance of test items and b) expects teachers to design adequate problems for specific learning processes (e.g. problem solving, reasoning and modelling activities).     

Construction algorithms for polynomial lattice rules for multivariate integration

We introduce a new construction algorithm for digital nets for integration in certain weighted tensor product Hilbert spaces. The first weighted Hilbert space we consider is based on Walsh functions. Dick and Pillichshammer calculated the worst-case error for integration using digital nets for this space. Here we extend this result to a special construction method for digital nets based on polynomials over finite fields. This result allows us to find polynomials which yield a small worst-case error by computer search. We prove an upper bound on the worst-case error for digital nets obtained by such a search algorithm which shows that the convergence rate is best possible and that strong tractability holds under some condition on the weights.

We extend the results for the weighted Hilbert space based on Walsh functions to weighted Sobolev spaces. In this case we use randomly digitally shifted digital nets. The construction principle is the same as before, only the worst-case error is slightly different. Again digital nets obtained from our search algorithm yield a worst-case error achieving the optimal rate of convergence and as before strong tractability holds under some condition on the weights. These results show that such a construction of digital nets yields the until now best known results of this kind and that our construction methods are comparable to the construction methods known for lattice rules.

We conclude the article with numerical results comparing the expected worst-case error for randomly digitally shifted digital nets with those for randomly shifted lattice rules.

     

Monotonicity criteria for difference schemes designed for hyperbolic equations

Previously formulated monotonicity criteria for explicit two-level difference schemes designed for hyperbolic equations (S.K. Godunov’s, A. Harten’s (TVD schemes), characteristic criteria) are extended to multileveled, including implicit, stencils. The characteristic monotonicity criterion is used to develop a universal algorithm for constructing high-order accurate nonlinear monotone schemes (for an arbitrary form of the desired solution) based on their analysis in the space of grid functions. Several new fourth-to-third-order accurate monotone difference schemes on a compact three-level stencil and nonexpanding (three-point) stencils are proposed for an extended system, which ensures their monotonicity for both the desired function and its derivatives. The difference schemes are tested using the characteristic monotonicity criterion and are extended to systems of hyperbolic equations.     

Polynomial cost for solving IVP for high-index DAE

We show that the cost of solving initial value problems for high-index differential algebraic equations is polynomial in the number of digits of accuracy requested. The algorithm analyzed is built on a Taylor series method developed by Pryce for solving a general class of differential algebraic equations. The problem may be fully implicit, of arbitrarily high fixed index and contain derivatives of any order. We give estimates of the residual which are needed to design practical error control algorithms for differential algebraic equations. We show that adaptive meshes are always more efficient than non-adaptive meshes. Finally, we construct sufficiently smooth interpolants of the discrete solution. AMS subject classification (2000) 34A09, 65L80, 68Q25     

Multilevel Preconditioners for Mixed Methods for Second Order Elliptic Problems

A new approach for constructing algebraic multilevel preconditioners for mixed finite element methods for second order elliptic problems with tensor coefficients on general geometry is proposed. The linear system arising from the mixed methods is first algebraically condensed to a symmetric, positive definite system for Lagrange multipliers, which corresponds to a linear system generated by standard nonconforming finite element methods. Algebraic multilevel preconditioners for this system are then constructed based on a triangulation of the domain into tetrahedral substructures. Explicit estimates of condition numbers and simple computational schemes are established for the constructed preconditioners. Finally, numerical results for the mixed finite element methods are presented to illustrate the present theory.     

A sufficient condition for GPN-stability for delay differential equations

Summary In this paper the author considers a linear test delay differential equation with non-constant coefficients related to the definitions of PN and GPN-stability for numerical methods. He defines stability properties for an ordinary differential equation together with stability properties of interpolants for numerical methods and in this way he gives sufficient conditions for GPN-stability.This work was supported by the Italian M.P.I. (funds 40%) and by C.N.R.     

Basin attractors for various methods for multiple roots

There are several methods for approximating the multiple zeros of a nonlinear function when the multiplicity is known. The methods are classified by the order, informational efficiency and efficiency index. Here we consider other criteria, namely the basin of attraction of the method and its dependence on the order. We discuss all known methods of orders two to four and present the basin of attraction for several examples.     

NC-Approximation Schemes for NP- and PSPACE-Hard Problems for Geometric Graphs

We present NC-approximation schemes for a number of graph problems when restricted to geometric graphs including unit disk graphs and graphs drawn in a civilized manner. Our approximation schemes exhibit the same time versus performance trade-off as the best known approximation schemes for planar graphs. We also define the concept of λ-precision unit disk graphs and show that for such graphs the approximation schemes have a better time versus performance trade-off than the approximation schemes for arbitrary unit disk graphs. Moreover, compared to unit disk graphs, we show that for λ-precision unit disk graphs many more graph problems have efficient approximation schemes.Our NC-approximation schemes can also be extended to obtain efficient NC-approximation schemes for several PSPACE-hard problems on unit disk graphs specified using a restricted version of the hierarchical specification language of Bentley, Ottmann, and Widmayer. The approximation schemes for hierarchically specified unit disk graphs presented in this paper are among the first approximation schemes in the literature for natural PSPACE-hard optimization problems.