On the nature of OR: taking stock

This paper argues that OR, having reached its maturity, must now play to its strengths. In strategic terms this means competing in those areas where OR's core competences can be brought to bear. Using a competence model it is suggested that OR's core products are (i) the development and implementation of the quantitative, algorithmic ‘smart bits’ and (ii) the ‘helpful ways’ of managing intervention processes. These core products are supported and sustained by three core competences labelled process, analytic, and context. Individuals and small groups of practitioners develop ‘strands of practice’ and larger groups ‘webs of practice’ on the basis of their core competences. It is argued that this is giving rise to the emergence of three archetypes of OR service, namely the OR technical consultancy, the OR process consultancy, and the full service OR consultancy. Both the technical and process consulting are built around ‘strands of practice’ of individuals and find their natural home in small service providers. The full service OR consulting practice, in the past located in internal OR groups, will in the future be located within the large management consultancies, which are capable of managing ‘webs of practice’. The implications for the worlds of OR practice and academia are examined.     

Fifty years of systems thinking for management

The point of this paper is to provide an account of the last 50 years of systems thinking applied to management that is insightful and useful to those interested in the theory and practice of operational research (OR). In seeking to fulfil this purpose, it employs Boulding's well-known ‘hierarchy of complexity’ to think through the reasons for the emergence of different strands of applied systems thinking and to detail their strengths. In theoretical terms, operational researchers will find a number of the key issues that have engaged their field (eg, hard versus soft approaches) mirrored in debates that have taken place between systems thinkers. They may discover new theoretical avenues to follow to advance their discipline. OR practitioners may also be surprised by the nature and scope of the systems applications described and conclude that systems approaches should be added to their own intervention strategies. At the least, the paper is designed to reinvigorate discussion around the relationship between OR and systems thinking that has occasionally surfaced over the last half century but has never been satisfactorily concluded.     

Beyond methodology choice: critical systems thinking as critically systemic discourse

Professional competence in applied disciplines such as OR/MS requires both technical expertise and critically reflective skills. Yet, a widespread misconception has taken hold of the OR/MS community: ‘critical’ and ‘emancipatory’ systems methodologies are opposed to ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ ones as if they were sensible alternatives. Accordingly, adequate ‘methodology choice’ is now widely considered a key condition of reflective professional practice; critical systems thinking (CST) is understood to deal mainly with this issue. The present paper argues that this conception of CST is neither theoretically sound nor conducive to reflective practice. An examination of the two major current strands of CST suggests some basic requirements of an alternative conception: (1) Reflective practice depends more on a framework of critical argumentation and discourse than on a framework of methodology choice. (2) A well-conceived discursive systems approach will give a proper place to the public sphere. (3) The much-discussed emancipatory orientation of CST inheres in the methodological requirements of discourse rather than in an arbitrary ‘commitment’ on the part of the systems practitioner. (4) Systemic boundary critique—the methodological core concept of critical systems heuristics (CSH)—allows us to translate these requirements into practical methodology. (5) Contrary to present conceptions of methodological pluralism or ‘complementarism’, boundary critique must not be subordinated to methodology choice, for it is constitutive of all critical inquiry and practice. These considerations lead to a reconstitution of CST, and to a new view of reflective professional practice in general, as critically systemic discourse.     

Frameworks of Inquiry: OR Practice Across the Hard—Soft Divide

The growing interest in understanding the practice of OR has, not unnaturally, tended to concentrate upon experience with those ‘soft’ methodologies which address both process and content management issues. This paper uses a detailed account of one practitioner's work in a ‘traditional’ area of OR (linear programming) to demonstrate how process-related issues are handled there, and argues that more extensive reporting of such conventional practice is essential for the health of the discipline. In particular, it suggests that an emphasis on discussing the development of working relationships between OR practitioners and their clients might usefully supplant the contemporary emphasis on the ‘project’.     

Creating Employment Opportunities for People with Mental Health Problems: A Feasibility Study for New Initiatives

This paper describes a feasibility study for the development of a network of employment services for people with mental health problems (and others) who are unemployed. It highlights the problems of using debate-orientated, soft OR methods when there are difficulties of open communication between different interest groups. In this case, the interest groups were clients and professionals in the mental health system. To bypass these difficulties, a series of confidential interviews was conducted with stakeholders. The issue of who was to be interviewed was resolved through a rolling programme of recommendations, where each interviewee recommended others until most of the people being recommended were people who had already been seen. This approach allowed for the involvement of many people and agencies who the researchers did not initially suspect might be stakeholders. Having conducted the interviews, the researchers then produced a design in the form of an ‘expert’ report. Although they had serious reservations about taking such an approach instead of simply supporting the expertise of already identified stakeholders, it turned out, upon reflection, that they had made the right decision. The ‘expert’ appoach allowed the views of service users to be taken into account. Also, the rolling programme of recommendations used to determine who should be interviewed actually uncovered hitherto ‘hidden’ stakeholders who were crucial to the success or failure of the whole project.     

Operational research and critical systems thinking—an integrated perspective

On the basis of a review of the role of systems thinking in the history of OR, Part 1 of this essay proposed a systematic understanding of OR as applied systems thinking. Further, it identified the contribution of ‘critical’ systems thinking (CST) in a combined ability of its two strands, critical systems heuristics (CSH) and total systems intervention (TSI), to enhance the conceptual sophistication of OR. Part 2 aims to translate this understanding into a framework for good professional practice. How exactly can CST strengthen the competence profile of OR professionals? Drawing on three experience-based archetypes of professional service and some basic argumentation-theoretical considerations, a new understanding of OR and applied systems thinking as argumentative practice emerges. In this new understanding CST finds a systematic place and some exemplary uses of CSH and TSI can be located—an integrated perspective.     

On the Nature of OR — Entering the Fray

In 1980 a seminar of operational researchers and practitioners from a variety of different countries concluded that there was a remarkable consensus about the way that the process of operational research and systems analysis should be understood and practised. Since then the development of new methods has continued apace, stimulated by interaction with the social sciences and paradigms other than natural science. This paper enters the debate, started in this journal, about the nature of OR's status as science or technology. It recognizes the historic claims of science on OR, but it suggests that for ‘private’ consumption, technology will prove more fruitful, and for ‘public’ consumption practitioners will increasingly adopt the label ‘consultant’. Ackoff's original six-step method of OR is updated to reflect current OR practice. The process suggested acknowledges the importance of context, socio-political factors and the growing role of facilitation.     

Success and survival of operational research groups—A review

Operational Research groups were established in private and public sector organizations following on from their success supporting the military in the Second World War. In the early years their numbers grew rapidly but by the mid-1970s evidence started to accumulate that they were being viewed less favourably. Many organizations chose not to set up OR groups. Established groups were closed down or dispersed to operating units in organizations, particularly during the recessionary periods. In 1993 following on the closures of some major OR groups in the UK, the Operational Research Society decided to fund research to examine those factors influencing a group's success and survival. This review, which forms part of the research, first examines the history of OR groups in the UK and North America, arguing that in practice they were one of a number of internal organizational consultancies. As such they were judged by their competitive performance. Despite the intent of the founding fathers of OR many groups found their scope was limited to mainly tactical problems using analytical model based approaches although there were exceptions that were successful in making major contributions at the strategic level also. Within their chosen fields of activity however many groups flourished whilst some failed. This review presents a comprehensive list of influences on success and survival. They include changes in the external environment, together with shifts in managerial style and culture, organizational factors, and the OR group itself. The review concludes that, while OR groups can do much to protect themselves from closure, organizational changes within a hostile managerial culture demand a creative response that acknowledges new requirements. Areas where an OR group has greatest influence over its effectiveness include its leadership and personnel, project balance and management. In addition, to be successful OR groups need to positively develop and market their services in an increasingly competitive managerial climate.     

Writing practitioner case studies to help behavioural OR researchers ground their theories: application of the mangle perspective

Behavioural research into the practice of OR needs to be grounded. Case studies written by practitioners can potentially help address this need but currently most do not. The paper explores a way of describing OR projects that place the emphasis on the ‘actors’ who provide the motivating force and the consequences of their actions. The ‘mangle’ perspective focuses on the dynamic intertwining of people, technology and concepts; this can provide the basis for an insightful narrative describing the reality of the project in terms of the planned approach, the problems met and the outcomes. Two examples are given, one of a conventional model building exercise, the second of a ‘soft OR’ intervention: both describe projects conducted by practitioners for commercial purposes. It is concluded that, by using the mangle perspective, the OR case writer can winnow the wheat from the chaff in order to write a succinct informative narrative, a narrative that could be utilized by behavioural OR (BOR) researchers. It is further concluded that BOR researchers should engage with ‘practice theory’ to deepen their understanding of what actually happens in projects.     

Multimethodology in Metaheuristics

As a combination of different methodologies or parts of methodologies, Multimethodology is becoming more frequent in OR practice. This paper contributes with a new proposal and a new field of application: the employment of Multimethodology in problem solving with Metaheuristics (Mh). A convenient selection of soft and hard methods will be considered, from Soft OR, Creativity and Metaheuristics, such as Strategic Choice Approach, SWOT Analysis and Divergent and Convergent thinking. Formulating the ‘right’ optimisation problem, choosing a method based on Mh and accomplishing an effective implementation is an imprecise decision-making process, which may require skills and ideas that are beyond the ordinary boundaries of Mh practice. The relevance and success of Mh have been well-known for decades, but some open questions concerning choice and implementation strategies, for instance, still remain. If these questions are not adequately answered, they may lose credibility in the long term. The quality of solutions and computational times are not the only criteria used to analyse Mh, nor are they the most important. Very often, the effectiveness of an approach has to be evaluated from the perspective of modelling and practical problem solving. This paper investigates the advantages of Multimethodology and, furthermore, it sketches a framework for a coherent and comprehensive comparison of Mh and recommends a dynamic guiding tool for their implementation.     

Evaluating soft OR: some reflections on an apparently ‘unsuccessful’ implementation using a Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) based approach

This paper reflects on a case study in which a soft OR problem structuring approach, based on Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), was used to help in the design of an information system for health service users providing care in the community in a part of the South and West Health Region in the UK. The paper reflects on why an apparently ‘successful’ structuring led to an apparently ‘unsuccessful’ implementation. As part of this reflective process, the paper makes a contribution to the soft OR literature by reviewing some of the approaches taken in the literature to the evaluation of success of problem structuring using soft OR. This review reveals a lack of evaluative criteria, a lack of clarity over the identification of users, and a failure to differentiate criteria associated with ‘structuring’ and ‘implementation’ issues. An evaluative framework is proposed, which is applied retrospectively to the case study.     

Some Methodologies for Community Operational Research

As experience of conducting community OR projects grows and learning accrues, new approaches will be developed offering guidance on how best to proceed in alleviating the problems of community organizations. In the interim, it is sensible to consider which, if any, among the existing OR and systems methodologies might prove useful for this kind of work. In this paper it is argued that there already exist, within what might be described as ‘enhanced OR’, a number of approaches which are suitable for guiding community OR practice. This is demonstrated by outlining some of these methodologies, giving examples of their use with community organizations and showing their particular strengths in the community context. Some conclusions are drawn about the community OR enterprise.     

Factors contributing to academic achievement: a Bayesian structure equation modelling study

In Iran, high school graduates enter university after taking a very difficult entrance exam called the Konkoor. Therefore, only the top-performing students are admitted by universities to continue their bachelor's education in statistics. Surprisingly, statistically, most of such students fall into the following categories: (1) do not succeed in their education despite their excellent performance on the Konkoor and in high school; (2) graduate with a grade point average (GPA) that is considerably lower than their high school GPA; (3) continue their master's education in majors other than statistics and (4) try to find jobs unrelated to statistics. This article employs the well-known and powerful statistical technique, the Bayesian structural equation modelling (SEM), to study the academic success of recent graduates who have studied statistics at Shahid Beheshti University in Iran. This research: (i) considered academic success as a latent variable, which was measured by GPA and other academic success (see below) of students in the target population; (ii) employed the Bayesian SEM, which works properly for small sample sizes and ordinal variables; (iii), which is taken from the literature, developed five main factors that affected academic success and (iv) considered several standard psychological tests and measured characteristics such as ‘self-esteem’ and ‘anxiety’. We then study the impact of such factors on the academic success of the target population. Six factors that positively impact student academic success were identified in the following order of relative impact (from greatest to least): ‘Teaching–Evaluation’, ‘Learner’, ‘Environment’, ‘Family’, ‘Curriculum’ and ‘Teaching Knowledge’. Particularly, influential variables within each factor have also been noted.     

The Blackett Memorial Lecture 18 November 1997

It is argued that movement toward the ‘control’ aspects of management should be effected to expand OR/MS activities beyond their present (almost exclusive) emphasis on ‘planning’ functions. This will involve increasing the amount of empirical-inferential approaches to research (based on ex-post data) as one way to help bring this about. Examples of such empirical-inferential research activities in OR/MS are supplied by reference to the early (founding) work of PMS Blackett and others on high-level policy problems during World War II. Extensions to the control function are evidenced in the work of Robert Fetter and others in the development of Diagnostic Related Groups on which the Prospective Payment Systems are based with large and important impacts on the health care delivery systems in the USA as well as other countries. Other examples covered include the use of OR concepts in the early ‘turnaround’ of Federal Express from failure to success. Other new methods will nevertheless be needed to extend and improve presently available OR/MS approaches. Some of these possibilities are illustrated with Data Envelopment Analysis. Ways to combine DEA with commonly used statistical methods are described to show how new and old methods may be combined to further enhance their power and range. Similar relations of DEA to other OR/MS approaches are now being studied, some of which are presently occurring with ‘fuzzy sets’ and ‘multiple objective programming.’     

Model validation in operations research

Numerous articles have appeared in the literature expressing different degrees of concern with the methodology of OR in general and with the validation of OR models in particular. Suggestions have been formulated to remove some of the shortcomings of the methodology as currently practised and to introduce modifications in the approach because of the changing nature of the problems tackled. Advances in modeling capabilities and solution techniques have also had considerable impact on the way validation is perceived. Large scale computer-based mathematical models and especially simulation models have brought new dimensions to the notion of validation. Terms like ‘confidence’, ‘credibility and reliability’, ‘model assessment and evaluation’, ‘usefulness and usability of the model’ have become rather common. This paper is an attempt, through an interpretation of the literature, to put model validation and related issues in a framework that may be of use both to model-builders and to decision-makers.     

The development of management sciences/operational research discourses: surveying the trends in the US and the UK

This paper explores the trends in American and British management science/operational research (MS/OR) during the last 25 years. We argue that British MS/OR has developed a soft and systemic approach to MS/OR practice, which has resulted in the emergence of a number of interpretive and critical-oriented methodologies. American MS/OR practice has remained closed to the positivistic discourse. Using a set of keywords and authors’ names associated with the main features of the interpretive and critical MS discourses, we surveyed articles published in three major US MS/OR journals. We compare these results with trends in the UK MS/OR scene. Findings appear to confirm the different directions taken by the MS/OR practice across the Atlantic. The paper posits possible reasons underpinning these differences: firstly, the particular methodological path followed by the British MS/OR, from early ‘soft systems’ applications in the early 1970s to the now well-established ‘Problem Structuring Methods’; and secondly, continuous engagement between the systems and MS/OR British communities (a dialogue that seems not to have occurred in the US). The paper contributes to a reflection on the MS/OR historical developments and contrasts these developments in both countries, two areas of OR significantly under-researched.     

Towards improving the utilization of university teaching space

There is a perception that teaching space in universities is a rather scarce resource. However, some studies have revealed that in many institutions it is actually chronically under-used. Often, rooms are occupied only half the time, and even when in use they are often only half full. This is usually measured by the ‘utilization’ which is defined as the percentage of available ‘seat-hours’ that are employed. Within real institutions, studies have shown that this utilization can often take values as low as 20–40%. One consequence of such a low level of utilization is that space managers are under pressure to make more efficient use of the available teaching space. However, better management is hampered because there does not appear to be a good understanding within space management (near-term planning) of why this happens. This is accompanied, within space planning (long-term planning) by a lack of experise on how best to accommodate the expected low utilizations. This motivates our two main goals: (i) To understand the factors that drive down utilizations, (ii) To set up methods to provide better space planning. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that constraints arising from timetabling and location requirements easily have the potential to explain the low utilizations seen in reality. Furthermore, on considering the decision question ‘Can this given set of courses all be allocated in the available teaching space?’ we find that the answer depends on the associated utilization in a way that exhibits threshold behaviour: There is a sharp division between regions in which the answer is ‘almost always yes’ and those of ‘almost always no’. Through analysis and understanding of the space of potential solutions, our work suggests that better use of space within universities will come about through an understanding of the effects of timetabling constraints and when it is statistically likely that it will be possible for a set of courses to be allocated to a particular space. The results presented here provide a firm foundation for university managers to take decisions on how space should be managed and planned for more effectively. Our multi-criteria approach and new methodology together provide new insight into the interaction between the course timetabling problem and the crucial issue of space planning.     

Analysing factors affecting the choice of emergent human resource capital

Ever since the announcement that UK higher education (HE) fees were to increase up to £9000, many universities have expressed concern about how to attract the best students while offering choice and promoting student mobility through broader access. This in turn has led to questioning how such complexity might be modelled using sophisticated operational research (OR) techniques. Because higher education institutions (HEIs) are now beginning to compete ‘against’ rather than ‘with’ each other, potential students are paying increased attention to where and what they will study, as well as graduate opportunities after their degree. Hence, the quality of education services becomes increasingly vital for HEIs in order to attract potential students. This study seeks to develop a framework of those factors affecting international (non-EU) students’ choice of institution. A number of factors were identified and collated from the existing literature providing a solid foundation on which to base this research. A survey approach was utilised to determine the importance of identified factors based on data collected from students of two different types of institutions (a university and a feeder institution). Through a better understanding of factors such as social influence, financial and career opportunities, universities should be well placed to construct models underpinned by OR principles that will promote scenario modelling and planning within HE.     

The OR worker in practice

The experience of OR workers ‘in the field’ are compared with Eilon's archetypes of OR workers. Being a change agent may be desirable for the OR worker and for the status of his/her profession, in practice it is hard to achieve because it implies sharing power with management.