Nonparametric estimation for stochastic differential equations with random effects

We consider N$N$ independent stochastic processes (_Xj(t),t∈[0,T])$(X_j\left(t\right),t\in [0,T])$, j=1,…,N$j=1,\dots ,N$, defined by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation with coefficients depending on a random variable _?j${?}_j$ and study the nonparametric estimation of the density of the random effect _?j${?}_j$ in two kinds of mixed models. A multiplicative random effect and an additive random effect are successively considered. In each case, we build kernel and deconvolution estimators and study their L²$L^2$-risk. Asymptotic properties are evaluated as N$N$ tends to infinity for fixed T$T$ or for T=T(N)$T=T\left(N\right)$ tending to infinity with N$N$. For T(N)=N²$T\left(N\right)=N^2$, adaptive estimators are built. Estimators are implemented on simulated data for several examples.     

Parametric inference for discretely observed multidimensional diffusions with small diffusion coefficient

We consider a multidimensional diffusion X$X$ with drift coefficient b(α,_Xt)$b(\alpha ,X_t)$ and diffusion coefficient ?σ(β,_Xt)$?\sigma (\beta ,X_t)$. The diffusion sample path is discretely observed at times _tk=kΔ$t_k=k\Delta$ for k=1…n$k=1\dots n$ on a fixed interval [0,T]$[0,T]$. We study minimum contrast estimators derived from the Gaussian process approximating X$X$ for small ?$?$. We obtain consistent and asymptotically normal estimators of α$\alpha$ for fixed Δ$\Delta$ and ?→0$?\to 0$ and of (α,β)$(\alpha ,\beta )$ for Δ→0$\Delta \to 0$ and ?→0$?\to 0$ without any condition linking ?$?$ and Δ$\Delta$. We compare the estimators obtained with various methods and for various magnitudes of Δ$\Delta$ and ?$?$ based on simulation studies. Finally, we investigate the interest of using such methods in an epidemiological framework.     

Unilateral small deviations of processes related to the fractional Brownian motion

Let x(s)$x\left(s\right)$, s∈R^d$s\in R^d$ be a Gaussian self-similar random process of index H$H$. We consider the problem of log-asymptotics for the probability _pT$p_T$ that x(s)$x\left(s\right)$, x(0)=0$x\left(0\right)=0$ does not exceed a fixed level in a star-shaped expanding domain T⋅Δ$T\cdot \Delta$ as T→∞$T\to \infty$. We solve the problem of the existence of the limit, θ?lim(−log_pT)/(logT)^D$\theta ?lim(-log{p}_T)/{(logT)}^D$, T→∞$T\to \infty$, for the fractional Brownian sheet x(s)$x\left(s\right)$, s∈[0,T]²$s\in {[0,T]}^2$ when D=2$D=2$, and we estimate θ$\theta$ for the integrated fractional Brownian motion when D=1$D=1$.     

Nonparametric estimation for pure jump Lévy processes based on high frequency data

In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of the Lévy density for pure jump Lévy processes. We consider n$n$ discrete time observations with step Δ$\Delta$. The asymptotic framework is: n$n$ tends to infinity, Δ=_Δn$\Delta ={\Delta }_n$ tends to zero while n_Δn$n{\Delta }_n$ tends to infinity. First, we use a Fourier approach (“frequency domain”): this allows us to construct an adaptive nonparametric estimator and to provide a bound for the global L²${\mathbb{L}}^2$-risk. Second, we use a direct approach (“time domain”) which allows us to construct an estimator on a given compact interval. We provide a bound for L²${\mathbb{L}}^2$-risk restricted to the compact interval. We discuss rates of convergence and give examples and simulation results for processes fitting in our framework.     

Estimation for stochastic differential equations with a small diffusion coefficient

We consider a multidimensional diffusion X$X$ with drift coefficient b(_Xt,α)$b(X_t,\alpha )$ and diffusion coefficient εa(_Xt,β)$\epsilon a(X_t,\beta )$ where α$\alpha$ and β$\beta$ are two unknown parameters, while ε$\epsilon$ is known. For a high frequency sample of observations of the diffusion at the time points k/n$k/n$, k=1,…,n$k=1,\dots ,n$, we propose a class of contrast functions and thus obtain estimators of (α,β)$(\alpha ,\beta )$. The estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal when n→∞$n\to \infty$ and ε→0$\epsilon \to 0$ in such a way that ε⁻¹n^−ρ${\epsilon }^{-1}{n}^{-\rho }$ remains bounded for some ρ>0$\rho >0$. The main focus is on the construction of explicit contrast functions, but it is noted that the theory covers quadratic martingale estimating functions as a special case. In a simulation study we consider the finite sample behaviour and the applicability to a financial model of an estimator obtained from a simple explicit contrast function.     

Some limit theorems for Hawkes processes and application to financial statistics

In the context of statistics for random processes, we prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval [0,T]$[0,T]$ when T→∞$T\to \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the covariation of the increments of the components of a multivariate Hawkes process, when the observations are imposed by a discrete scheme with mesh Δ$\Delta$ over [0,T]$[0,T]$ up to some further time shift τ$\tau$. The behaviour of this functional depends on the relative size of Δ$\Delta$ and τ$\tau$ with respect to T$T$ and enables to give a full account of the second-order structure. As an application, we develop our results in the context of financial statistics. We introduced in Bacry et al. (2013) [7] a microscopic stochastic model for the variations of a multivariate financial asset, based on Hawkes processes and that is confined to live on a tick grid. We derive and characterise the exact macroscopic diffusion limit of this model and show in particular its ability to reproduce the important empirical stylised fact such as the Epps effect and the lead–lag effect. Moreover, our approach enables to track these effects across scales in rigorous mathematical terms.     

An approximation method for strictly pseudocontractive mappings

Let K$K$ be a closed convex subset of a q$q$-uniformly smooth separable Banach space, T:K→K$T:K\to K$ a strictly pseudocontractive mapping, and f:K→K$f:K\to K$ an L$L$-Lispschitzian strongly pseudocontractive mapping. For any t∈(0,1)$t\in (0,1)$, let _xt$x_t$ be the unique fixed point of tf+(1-t)T$\mathit{tf}+(1-t)T$. We prove that if T$T$ has a fixed point, then {_xt}$\{x_t\}$ converges to a fixed point of T$T$ as t$t$ approaches to 0.     

New general convergence theory for iterative processes and its applications to Newton–Kantorovich type theorems

Let T:D⊂X→X$T:D\subset X\to X$ be an iteration function in a complete metric space X$X$. In this paper we present some new general complete convergence theorems for the Picard iteration _xn+1=T_xn$x_{n+1}=T{x}_n$ with order of convergence at least r≥1$r\ge 1$. Each of these theorems contains a priori and a posteriori error estimates as well as some other estimates. A central role in the new theory is played by the notions of a function of initial conditions   of T$T$ and a convergence function   of T$T$. We study the convergence of the Picard iteration associated to T$T$ with respect to a function of initial conditions E:D→X$E:D\to X$. The initial conditions in our convergence results utilize only information at the starting point _x0$x_0$. More precisely, the initial conditions are given in the form E(_x0)∈J$E\left(x_0\right)\in J$, where J$J$ is an interval on _R+${\mathbb{R}}_{+}$ containing 0. The new convergence theory is applied to the Newton iteration in Banach spaces. We establish three complete ω$\omega$-versions of the famous semilocal Newton–Kantorovich theorem as well as a complete version of the famous semilocal α$\alpha$-theorem of Smale for analytic functions.     

On functional limits of short- and long-memory linear processes with GARCH(1,1) noises

This paper considers the short- and long-memory linear processes with GARCH (1,1) noises. The functional limit distributions of the partial sum and the sample autocovariances are derived when the tail index α$\alpha$ is in (0,2)$(0,2)$, equal to 2, and in (2,∞)$(2,\infty )$, respectively. The partial sum weakly converges to a functional of α$\alpha$-stable process when α<2$\alpha <2$ and converges to a functional of Brownian motion when α≥2$\alpha \ge 2$. When the process is of short-memory and α<4$\alpha <4$, the autocovariances converge to functionals of α/2$\alpha /2$-stable processes; and if α≥4$\alpha \ge 4$, they converge to functionals of Brownian motions. In contrast, when the process is of long-memory, depending on α$\alpha$ and β$\beta$ (the parameter that characterizes the long-memory), the autocovariances converge to either (i) functionals of α/2$\alpha /2$-stable processes; (ii) Rosenblatt processes (indexed by β$\beta$, 1/2<β<3/4$1/2<\beta <3/4$); or (iii) functionals of Brownian motions. The rates of convergence in these limits depend on both the tail index α$\alpha$ and whether or not the linear process is short- or long-memory. Our weak convergence is established on the space of càdlàg functions on [0,1]$[0,1]$ with either (i) the _J1$J_1$ or the _M1$M_1$ topology (Skorokhod, 1956); or (ii) the weaker form S$S$ topology (Jakubowski, 1997). Some statistical applications are also discussed.     

The scaling limit of Poisson-driven order statistics with applications in geometric probability

Let _ηt${\eta }_t$ be a Poisson point process of intensity t≥1$t\ge 1$ on some state space Y$\mathbb{Y}$ and let f$f$ be a non-negative symmetric function on Y^k${\mathbb{Y}}^k$ for some k≥1$k\ge 1$. Applying f$f$ to all k$k$-tuples of distinct points of _ηt${\eta }_t$ generates a point process _ξt${\xi }_t$ on the positive real half-axis. The scaling limit of _ξt${\xi }_t$ as t$t$ tends to infinity is shown to be a Poisson point process with explicitly known intensity measure. From this, a limit theorem for the m$m$-th smallest point of _ξt${\xi }_t$ is concluded. This is strengthened by providing a rate of convergence. The technical background includes Wiener–Itô chaos decompositions and the Malliavin calculus of variations on the Poisson space as well as the Chen–Stein method for Poisson approximation. The general result is accompanied by a number of examples from geometric probability and stochastic geometry, such as k$k$-flats, random polytopes, random geometric graphs and random simplices. They are obtained by combining the general limit theorem with tools from convex and integral geometry.     

Weakly compact operators and strict topologies

Let X   be a completely regular Hausdorff space and _Cb(X)$C_b(X)$ be the Banach space of all real-valued bounded continuous functions on X, endowed with the uniform norm. It is shown that every weakly compact operator T   from _Cb(X)$C_b(X)$ to a quasicomplete locally convex Hausdorff space E   can be uniquely decomposed as T=_T1+_T2+_T3+_T4$T=T_1+T_2+T_3+T_4$, where _Tk:_Cb(X)→E$T_k:C_b(X)\to E$(k=1,2,3,4)$(k=1,2,3,4)$ are weakly compact operators, and _T1$T_1$ is tight, _T2$T_2$ is purely τ  -additive, _T3$T_3$ is purely σ  -additive and _T4$T_4$ is purely finitely additive. Moreover, we derive a generalized Yosida–Hewitt decomposition for E-valued strongly bounded regular Baire measures.     

Abelian theorems for stochastic volatility models with application to the estimation of jump activity

In this paper, we prove a kind of Abelian theorem for a class of stochastic volatility models (X,V)$(X,V)$ where both the state process X$X$ and the volatility process V$V$ may have jumps. Our results relate the asymptotic behavior of the characteristic function of _XΔ$X_{\Delta }$ for some Δ>0$\Delta >0$ in a stationary regime to the Blumenthal–Getoor indexes of the Lévy processes driving the jumps in X$X$ and V$V$. The results obtained are used to construct consistent estimators for the above Blumenthal–Getoor indexes based on low-frequency observations of the state process X$X$. We derive convergence rates for the corresponding estimator and show that these rates cannot be improved in general.     

Blow-up and propagation of disturbances for fast diffusion equations

This paper is concerned with the Cauchy problem for the fast diffusion equation _ut−Δu^m=αu^_p1$u_t-\Delta u^m=\alpha u^{p_1}$ in R^N${\mathbb{R}}^N$ (N≥1$N\ge 1$), where m∈(0,1)$m\in (0,1)$, _p1>1$p_1>1$ and α>0$\alpha >0$. The initial condition _u0$u_0$ is assumed to be continuous, nonnegative and bounded. Using a technique of subsolutions, we set up sufficient conditions on the initial value _u0$u_0$ so that u(t,x)$u(t,x)$ blows up in finite time, and we show how to get estimates on the profile of u(t,x)$u(t,x)$ for small enough values of t>0$t>0$.     

Concentration and multiplicity of solutions for a fourth-order equation with critical nonlinearity

In this paper, we consider the problem (_Pε)$(P_{\epsilon })$ : Δ²u=u^n+4/n-4+εu,u>0${\mathrm{\Delta }}^{2}u=u^{n+4/n-4}+\epsilon u,u>0$ in Ω,u=Δu=0$\Omega ,u=\mathrm{\Delta }u=0$ on ∂Ω$\mathrm{\partial }\Omega$, where Ω$\Omega$ is a bounded and smooth domain in Rⁿ,n>8${\mathbb{R}}^n,n>8$ and ε>0$\epsilon >0$. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of solutions of (_Pε)$(P_{\epsilon })$ which are minimizing for the Sobolev inequality as ε→0$\epsilon \to 0$ and we prove existence of solutions to (_Pε)$(P_{\epsilon })$ which blow up and concentrate around a critical point of the Robin's function. Finally, we show that for ε$\epsilon$ small, (_Pε)$(P_{\epsilon })$ has at least as many solutions as the Ljusternik–Schnirelman category of Ω$\Omega$.