Modelling strike duration distribution: a controlled Wiener process approach

Strike duration density distribution is derived from a controlled Wiener process. The distribution is the same as the first passage time distribution of the Wiener process with non‐zero drift, i.e. Inverse Gaussian distribution. The result utilizes the fact that the optimal conditions of a controlled process can be expressed by the conditions of an uncontrolled process. Consequently, the maximum‐likelihood estimates of expected strike duration with first passage density from a controlled process and IGD are the same. This finding provides a rationale for IGD as a basis for statistical analysis of strike duration. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of risk models using a level crossing technique

This paper analyzes ruin-like risk models in Insurance, which are variants of the Cramer–Lundberg (C–L) model with a barrier or a threshold. We consider three model variants, which have different portfolio strategies when the risk reserve reaches the barrier or exceeds the threshold. In these models we construct a time-extended risk process defined on cycles of a specific renewal process. The time until ruin is equal to one cycle of the specific renewal process. We also consider a fourth model, which is a variant of a model proposed by Dickson and Waters (2004). The analysis of each model employs a level crossing method (LC) to derive the steady-state probability distribution of the time-extended risk process. From the derived distribution we compute the expected time until ruin, the probability distribution of the deficit at ruin, and related quantities of interest.     

Two-boundary problems for a Poisson process with exponentially distributed component

For a Poisson process with exponentially distributed negative component, we obtain integral transforms of the joint distribution of the time of the first exit from an interval and the value of the jump over the boundary at exit time and the joint distribution of the time of the first hit of the interval and the value of the process at this time. On the exponentially distributed time interval, we obtain distributions of the total sojourn time of the process in the interval, the joint distribution of the supremum, infimum, and value of the process, the joint distribution of the number of upward and downward crossings of the interval, and generators of the joint distribution of the number of hits of the interval and the number of jumps over the interval. __________ Translated from Ukrains’kyi Matematychnyi Zhurnal, Vol. 58, No. 7, pp. 922–953, July, 2006.     

THE POINT PROCESS OF STATETRANSITIONS IN AREGULAR MARKOV CHAIN

1.IntroductionInreliabilitytheory,inordertocalculatethefailurefrequencyofarepairablesystem,Shily]firstintroducedandstudiedthetransitionfrequencybetweentwodisjointstatesetsforafiniteMarkovchainandavectorMarkovprocesswithfinitediscretestatespaceandobtainedageneralformulaoftransitionfrequency.Then,ontheconditionthatthegeneratormatrixofMarkovchainisuniformlybounded,Shi[8'9]againprovedthetransitionfrequencyformulaandobtainedthreeotherusefulformulas.Obviously,thepoint(orcalledcounting)processofsta…     

The Availability and Hazard of a System Under a Cumulative Damage Process With Replacements

Zacks (Failure distribution associated with general renewal damage processes. In: Nikulin M, Commenges D, Haber C (eds) Probability statistics and modelling in public health. Springer, Berlin, pp 465–475, 2006) studied the reliability function, the hazard function and the distribution of the failure time when a system is subject to a cumulative, compound renewal damage process. The failure occurs when the damage process crosses a threshold β. In the present paper these results are generalized to the model where the system is replaced after failures. Two cases are considered: instant replacement and random positive replacement time. The distribution of the age of the current renewal cycle, as well as its excess life, and the availability function are studied. We derive also the distribution of total time in (0, t) at which the system has been operational.     

On Several Two-Boundary Problems for a Particular Class of Lévy Processes

Several two-boundary problems are solved for a special Lévy process: the Poisson process with an exponential component. The jumps of this process are controlled by a homogeneous Poisson process, the positive jump size distribution is arbitrary, while the distribution of the negative jumps is exponential. Closed form expressions are obtained for the integral transforms of the joint distribution of the first exit time from an interval and the value of the overshoot through boundaries at the first exit time. Also the joint distribution of the first entry time into the interval and the value of the process at this time instant are determined in terms of integral transforms.     

Distribution of Deficit at Ruin for a PDMP Insurance Risk Model

In this paper we consider the risk process described by a piecewise deterministic Markov processes(PDMP). We mainly discuss the distribution of the deficit at ruin for the risk process. We derive the integrodifferential equation satisfied by this distribution. We obtain the explicit expressions for it for certain choices of the claim amount distribution.     

Parametric Estimation of a Boolean Segment Process with Stochastic Restoration Estimation

Abstract

We propose a stochastic restoration estimation (SRE) algorithm to estimate the parameters of the length distribution of a boolean segment process. A boolean segment process is a stochastic process obtained by considering the union of independent random segments attached to random points independently scattered on the plane. Each iteration of the SRE algorithm has two steps: first, censored segments are restored; second, based on these restored data, parameter estimations are updated. With a usually straightforward implementation, this algorithm is particularly interesting when censoring effects are difficult to take into account. We illustrate this method in two situations where the parameter of interest is either the mean of the segment length distribution or the variance of its logarithm. Its application to vine shoot length distribution estimation is presented.     

Trading water along a river

A set of agents is located along a river. Each agent consumes certain amount of water he receives from his part of the river basin and may sell certain amount to his downstream agent if it is mutually beneficial. Water trading is restricted to two neighboring agents and an agent can only pass water to his downstream agent. We ask if this restricted trade to neighboring agents can implement an efficient allocation of water. We show that the efficient allocation of water can be achieved through the process of downstream bilateral trading. Specifically, we show that this one way “downstream” trading process implements the unique efficient allocation as well as a welfare distribution. We also show that the welfare distribution is in the core of the associated game of the problem. Moreover, we show that the coalition of agents upstream any agent obtains more welfare with the bilateral trading than with the downstream incremental distribution proposed by Ambec and Sprumont (2002) and less than with the upstream incremental distribution proposed by [Ambec and Ehlers, 2008a] and [Ambec and Ehlers, 2008b].     

On crossing of a level by processes defined by sums of a random number of terms

We study the joint distribution of boundary functionals related to the crossing of a positive (negative) level by a process consisting of a homogeneous Poisson process and a process defined by sums of a random number of continuously distributed terms.Translated from Ukrainskii Matematicheskii Zhurnal, Vol. 47, No. 7, pp. 897–914, July, 1995.     

更新随机指标分枝过程的大偏差

研究了时间指标为一般更新过程的随机指标分枝过程.在每个粒子至少有两个分枝(Bottcher情形)以及更新分布满足Cramer条件的情况下,得到了更新随机指标分枝过程的大偏差原理.     

On the Counting Process for a Class of Markovian Arrival Processes with an Application to a Queueing System

In this paper, we consider the counting process for a class of Markovian arrival processes (MAPs). We assume that the representing matrices in such MAPs are expanded in terms of matrix representations of the standard generators in the Lie algebra of the special linear group. The primary purpose of this paper is to construct an explicit solution of the time-dependent distribution and factorial moments of the number of arrival events in (0,t] of the counting process for this class of MAPs. Our construction relies on the Baker–Hausdorff lemma and the specific structure of the representing matrices. To investigate the efficiency of CPU usage with the explicit solution, we have conducted numerical experiments on computing the time-dependent distribution of the counting process through the explicit solution and uniformization-based method. We show that the CPU times required to compute the time-dependent distribution of the number of arrival events in (0,t] through the explicit solution have little sensitivity to t, while the consumption of CPU times with the uniformization-based method becomes greater as t increases. For illustrative purposes, we present a system performance analysis of a queueing system for possible use in automatic call distribution (ACD) systems. As an application of the explicit solution, we use it to express the waiting time distribution of the queueing system. Some numerical examples are also given with comparisons to computer simulations.AMS subject classification: 60K20, 60K25, 68M20This revised version was published online in June 2005 with corrected coverdate     

On the first ruin moment for a modified risk process with immediate reflection

For a modified risk process with immediate reflection downward, we establish relations for an integral transformation of its characteristic function and the corresponding transformation of the limit distribution of the considered process under ergodicity conditions. The distribution is obtained for the first ruin moment of the introduced risk process. Translated from Ukrainskii Matematicheskii Zhurnal, Vol. 50, No. 10, pp. 1419–1425, October, 1998.     

On the characteristic functional of a doubly stochastic Poisson process: Application to a narrow-band process

The characteristic functional (c.fl.) of a doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) is studied and it provides us the finite dimensional distributions of the process and so its moments. It is also studied the case of a DSPP which intensity is a narrow-band process. The Karhunen–Loève expansion of its intensity is used to obtain the probability distribution function and a decomposition of this Poisson process. The covariance derived from the general c.fl. is applied in this particular DSPP.     

On the limit law of a random walk conditioned to reach a high level

We consider a random walk with a negative drift and with a jump distribution which under Cramér’s change of measure belongs to the domain of attraction of a spectrally positive stable law. If conditioned to reach a high level and suitably scaled, this random walk converges in law to a nondecreasing Markov process which can be interpreted as a spectrally positive Lévy process conditioned not to overshoot level 1.     

Asymptotic distribution of the downtime of a monotone system

To compute the distribution of the downtime in a time interval [0,t] for a highly available monotone system, a Compound Poisson process (CP(t)) approximation is often used. In this paper we give sufficient conditions for when the distribution ofCP(t) is an asymptotic limit. We also study the convergence to the normal distribution.     

Distribution of the time of first arrival of a Wiener process at a given boundary

An exact expression is derived for the characteristic function of the distribution of the first arrival time of a Wiener process at a given boundary, which is fixed in time. An approximate expression is obtained for the same characteristic function assuming that the given boundary is a function of time. The properties of the distribution of the first arrival time are analyzed.Translated from Statisticheskie Metody, pp. 31–42, 1980.     

Analysis of risk models using a level crossing technique

This paper analyzes ruin-like risk models in Insurance, which are variants of the Cramer–Lundberg (C–L) model with a barrier or a threshold. We consider three model variants, which have different portfolio strategies when the risk reserve reaches the barrier or exceeds the threshold. In these models we construct a time-extended risk process defined on cycles of a specific renewal process. The time until ruin is equal to one cycle of the specific renewal process. We also consider a fourth model, which is a variant of a model proposed by Dickson and Waters (2004). The analysis of each model employs a level crossing method (LC) to derive the steady-state probability distribution of the time-extended risk process. From the derived distribution we compute the expected time until ruin, the probability distribution of the deficit at ruin, and related quantities of interest.     

Semi-Markov model of a renewal process with switching

A semi-Markov process with a discrete-continuous phase space is applied to describe a renewal process with switching. Formulas are derived for the stationary distribution of the embedded Markov chain and the stationary characteristics of the system.Sevastopol' Instrument-Building Institute. Translated from Dinamicheskie Sistemy, No. 10, pp. 63–68, 1992.     

Truncated sequential estimation of the parameter of a first order autoregressive process with dependent noises

For a first-order non-explosive autoregressive process with dependent noise, we propose a truncated sequential procedure with a fixed mean-square accuracy. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator depends on the type of the noise distribution: it is normal when the noise has a Kotz’s distribution, while it is a mixture of normal distributions if the noise distribution is a variance mixture of normal distrbutions as well. In both cases, the convergence to the limiting distribution is uniform in the unknown parameter.