The effect of constant and pulse vaccination on an SIR epidemic model with infectious period

In this paper, we investigate two delayed SIR models with vaccination and a generalized nonlinear incidence and obtain sufficient conditions for eradication and permanence of the disease, respectively. Our results indicate that a larger vaccination rate will lead to the eradication of a disease. Furthermore, theoretical results show that constant vaccination strategy can lead to disease eradication at relatively low values of vaccination than pulse vaccination strategy, which is different from the results in [1]. In addition, numerical simulations indicate that pulse vaccination strategy or a longer infectious period will make a larger fraction of population infected by disease.     

A recursive point process model for infectious diseases

We introduce a new type of point process model to describe the incidence of contagious diseases. The model incorporates the premise that when a disease occurs at low frequency in the population, such as in the primary stages of an outbreak, then anyone with the disease is likely to have a high rate of transmission to others, whereas when the disease is prevalent, the transmission rate is lower due to prevention measures and a relatively high percentage of previous exposure in the population. The model is said to be recursive, in the sense that the conditional intensity at any time depends on the productivity associated with previous points, and this productivity in turn depends on the conditional intensity at those points. Basic properties of the model are derived, estimation and simulation are discussed, and the recursive model is shown to fit well to California Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever data.

     

A mathematical model of infectious diseases

In the formulation of models for the spread of communicable diseases which include removal and population dynamics, it is necessary to distinguish between removal through recovery with immunity and removal by death due to disease. This distinction must be made because of the difference in the effect on the population dynamics of the different kinds of removal and because there are significant differences in the behavior of the models. We have formulated a class of models which allow recovery with immunity for a fraction of the infective and permanent removal by death from disease for the remainder. Earlier models of this type have postulated an increased death rate for infective, but such models are restricted to exponentially distributed-infective periods. Because of the differences in behavior between models with recovery and models with permanent removal do not arise when the infective period is exponentially distributed, we have chosen to formulate a different type of model which is sufficiently general to admit qualitative differences.     

A delayed SIR epidemic model with saturation incidence and a constant infectious period

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with saturation incidence and a time delay describing a constant infectious period is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium is established. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, it is proved that the disease is uniformly persistent in the population, and explicit formulae are obtained to estimate the eventual lower bound of the fraction of infectious individuals. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global attractiveness of the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results.     

Existence of multiple periodic solutions for an SIR model with seasonality

We study an SIR model with a seasonal contact rate and a staged treatment strategy, which is an extension of our previous work [Z. Bai, Y. Zhou, Existence of two periodic solutions for a non-autonomous SIR epidemic model, Appl. Math. Model. 35 (2011) 382-391]. It is proved that the persistence and extinction of the disease are determined by the basic reproductive number (R₀) and a threshold parameter (R_c). It is obtained that the model exhibits two different bistable behaviors under certain conditions: the stable disease-free state coexists with a stable endemic periodic solution, and three endemic periodic solutions coexist with two of them being stable. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate theoretical results.     

Numerical modelling of an SIR epidemic model with diffusion

A spatial SIR reaction-diffusion model for the transmission disease such as whooping cough is studied. The behaviour of positive solutions to a reaction-diffusion system with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are investigated. Sufficient conditions for the local and global asymptotical stability are given by linearization and by using Lyapunov functional. Our result shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the contact rate is small. These results are verified numerically by constructing, and then simulating, a robust implicit finite-difference method. Furthermore, the new implicit finite-difference method will be seen to be more competitive (in terms of numerical stability) than the standard finite-difference method.     

Two critical times for the SIR model

We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and infected populations and characterize them as solutions of a certain partial differential equation. This allows us to obtain integral representations of these times and in turn to estimate them precisely for large populations.     

Global behaviour of an SIR epidemic model with time delay

We study the stability of a delay susceptible–infective–recovered epidemic model with time delay. The model is formulated under the assumption that all individuals are susceptible, and we analyse the global stability via two methods—by Lyapunov functionals, and—in terms of the variance of the variables. The main theorem shows that the endemic equilibrium is stable. If the basic reproduction number ?₀ is less than unity, by LaSalle invariance principle, the disease‐free equilibrium E_s is globally stable and the disease always dies out. By applying the integral averaging theory, we also investigate the stability in variance of the model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of impulsive vaccination on an SIR epidemic model

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model is constructed and analyzed. We get the result that if the parameters satisfy the condition β>α+γ+b, then the disease will be ultimately permanent. Under this condition, we consider how the impulsive vaccination affects the original system. The sufficient condition for the global asymptotical stability of the disease-eradication solution is obtained. We also get that if the impulsive vaccination rate is less than some value, the disease will be permanent, and the disease cannot be controlled. People can select appropriate vaccination rate according to our theoretical result to control diseases.     

Three kinds of TVS in a SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission

Three different vaccination and treatment strategies in the SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission are analyzed. The dynamics of epidemic models are globally investigated by using Floquet theory and comparison theorem of impulsive differential equation. Thresholds are identified and global stability results are proved. For every treatment and vaccination strategy, the disease-free periodic solution of impulsive system has been obtained and is found to be globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one, equivalently the cure rate is larger than the threshold value, whereas the disease is persistent when the basic reproduction number is larger than one. These results indicate that a large cure rate will lead to the eradication of a disease.     

Using a Volterra system model to analyze nonlinear response in video-packet transmission over IP networks

This paper presents a Volterra system-based nonlinear analysis of video-packet transmission over IP networks. With the Volterra system, which is applicable to the modeling of nonlinear dynamic systems from sets of input and output data, we applied a time-series analysis of measured data for network response evaluation. In a test-bed connected to the Internet, we measured two parameters: the time intervals between consecutive packets from a video server at the originating side, and the transmission time of packets between originating and terminating sides. We used these as input and output data for the Volterra system and confirmed that the relative error of this model changed with conditions of network systems, which suggested that the packet transmission process affected the degree of nonlinearity of the system. The proposed method can reproduce the time-series responses observed in video-packet transmission over the Internet, reflecting nonlinear dynamic behaviors such that the obtained results provided us with an effective depiction of network conditions at different times.     

A legendre pseudospectral method for a PDE model for the dynamics of infectious diseases

A Legendre pseudospectral method is developed for a PDE model for the dynamics of infectious diseases. The stability and the convergence rate of the method are studied. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 13: 417–432, 1997     

Dynamics of an SIR epidemic model with limited medical resources revisited

The dynamics of an SIR epidemic model is explored in this paper in order to understand how the limited medical resources and their supply efficiency affect the transmission of infectious diseases. The study reveals that, with varying amount of medical resources and their supply efficiency, the target model admits both backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation. Sufficient criteria are established for the existence of backward bifurcation, the existence, the stability and the direction of Hopf bifurcation. The mechanism of backward bifurcation and its implication for the control of the infectious disease are also explored. Numerical simulations are presented to support and complement the theoretical findings.