系统风险不同预期下的存款保险费率测算

将影响银行资产价值的风险因素分解为系统风险因素和银行特定风险因素,进而在系统风险因素点估计和区间估计的不同预期下测算银行存款保险费率水平,得到的费率能够反映银行资产风险随经济形势波动的变化情况。通过模拟测算了我国16家上市银行2008~2016年间特定经济形势情境下的存款保险费率水平,并在极端压力下与传统Merton费率进行了比较。得到的基本结论包括:不同年度不同银行费率对系统风险因素的敏感程度不同;经济形势尾部极端分布对费率的影响具有非对称性特点,风险极高区间对费率的贡献远大于风险极低区间;与传统的Merton费率相比,系统风险特定预期下测算的费率更契合经济形势的变化,这在存款保险制度运行初期,有利于增强基金的抗压能力。     

Statistical Inferences of Risk Premium under the Generalized Exponential Premium Theory

The principle of exponential premium is an important premium principle in non-life actuarial science. This paper proposes an improved exponential premium principle. This premium principle can not only include the principle of exponential premium as a special case, but also the generalizations of Esscher premium principle and net premium principle, which has many excellent properties as a premium principle. We study the maximal likelihood estimates, nonparametric estimates and Bayesian estimation of risk premium, and discuss the statistical properties including asymptotic unbiased, coincidence, and asymptotic normality. In addition, the asymptotic confidence interval for this risk premium is given. Finally, the convergence rate of maximum likelihood estimation and nonparametric estimation is compared by numerical simulation method. The results show that the nonparametric estimation has a small mean square error when the sample size is small.     

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??The principle of exponential premium is an important premium principle in non-life actuarial science. This paper proposes an improved exponential premium principle. This premium principle can not only include the principle of exponential premium as a special case, but also the generalizations of Esscher premium principle and net premium principle, which has many excellent properties as a premium principle. We study the maximal likelihood estimates, nonparametric estimates and Bayesian estimation of risk premium, and discuss the statistical properties including asymptotic unbiased, coincidence, and asymptotic normality. In addition, the asymptotic confidence interval for this risk premium is given. Finally, the convergence rate of maximum likelihood estimation and nonparametric estimation is compared by numerical simulation method. The results show that the nonparametric estimation has a small mean square error when the sample size is small.     

过度自信与风险溢价研究

非理性投资者的心理会影响风险溢价。本文基于投资者的过度自信心理偏差构建了证券投资的理性风险溢价度量模型、非理性风险溢价度量模型,并利用理性投资者和非理性投资者的相互作用,构建了证券投资的市场风险溢价度量模型,研究了非理性风险溢价对理性风险溢价和市场风险溢价的偏离问题。研究结论表明:非理性风险溢价偏离市场风险溢价的程度依赖于非理性投资者的市场价值权重。     

保费收入随机化的风险模型

本文推广了龚日朝(2001)的风险模型,把保费随机化,利用鞅方法讨论了保单来到过程与索赔来到过程均为Po isson过程的破产概率.接着又讨论了G erber-Sh iu期望折现函数,推导出了其满足的积分方程,以及L ap lace变换.最后利用随机游动的知识,讨论了当保单来到过程与索赔来到过程为同一更新过程时的破产概率.     

随机保费模型下绝对破产概率的可微性以及渐近性（英文）

本文研究了具有随机保费收入的风险模型的Gerber-Shiu罚金函数的可微性以及渐近性质,随机保费收入通过一个复合泊松过程刻画.本文得到了Gerber-Shiu函数所满足的积分微分方程,给出了Gerber-Shiu罚金函数二次可微与三次可微的充分条件.当所讨论的罚金函数是三次可微的时候,前述积分微分方程可以转化为一般的常微分方程.利用常微分方程的标准方法,当个体随机保费和随机理赔都是指数分布的时候,得到了绝对破产概率在初始盈余趋向于无穷大时的渐近性质.     

关于停止损失再保险的调节系数最大化问题

停止损失再保险作为一种再保险方式,在具有相同保费的前提下,能使保险人的期望效用最大,并能使其自留风险方差最小.另外在保费和费率相等的前提下,停止损失再保险的调节系数不可能比其他再保险方式的调节系数小.本论文在此基础上作了相应推广,讨论了在保费相等的前提下,停止损失再保险的费率满足时,其调节系数不小于其他再保险方式的调节系数.     

Futures markets,production and diversification of risk

This paper lays out a framework for the analysis of the risk transfer role of speculators on futures markets and the impact of their trading on the production decisions of firms. We show that when speculators diversify their portfolios over a large number of markets, the equilibrium risk premium converges to an asymptotic premium, the behaviour of which is determined by the stochastic dependence between the spot price and an index of average returns on other markets—the idiosyncratic risk arising from the variability of the spot price itself is diversified away. In the independent and negatively dependent cases this diversification of risk leads to a Pareto improving property.     

Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach

In this paper we derive analytic formulas for electricity derivatives under assumption that electricity spot prices follow a 3-regime Markov regime-switching model with independent spikes and drops and periodic transition matrix. Since the classical derivatives pricing methodology cannot be used in the case of non-storable commodities, we employ the concept of the risk premium. The obtained theoretical results are then used for the European Energy Exchange data analysis. We calculate the risk premium in the case of the calibrated 3-regime MRS model. We find a time varying structure of the risk premium and an evidence for a negative risk premium (or positive forward premium), especially at short times before delivery. Finally, we use the obtained risk premium to calculate prices of European options written on spot, as well as, forward prices.     

保费随机收取的双险种二项风险模型的破产概率

本文考虑双险种二项风险模型,对保单到达时收取的保费是一随机变量进行了研究,得到了其破产概率的一般公式和lundberg不等式.     

Optimal reinsurance with premium constraint under distortion risk measures

Recently distortion risk measure has been an interesting tool for the insurer to reflect its attitude toward risk when forming the optimal reinsurance strategy. Under the distortion risk measure, this paper discusses the reinsurance design with unbinding premium constraint and the ceded loss function in a general feasible region which requiring the retained loss function to be increasing and left-continuous. Explicit solution of the optimal reinsurance strategy is obtained by introducing a premium-adjustment function. Our result has the form of layer reinsurance with the mixture of normal reinsurance strategies in each layer. Finally, to illustrate the applicability of our results, we derive the optimal reinsurance solutions with premium constraint under two special distortion risk measures—VaR and TVaR.     

The impact of financial leverage on risk of equity measured by loss-oriented risk measures: An option pricing approach

We investigate how financial leverage influences the risk of equity in companies with limited liability. In our study, the risk is measured by loss-oriented risk measures (VaR, downside deviation, etc.). Also, the dependence of the risk premium on risk is under consideration. VaR-based and downside risk measures are considered in similar frameworks, and risk premium is introduced which is symmetrical to these risk measures. The value of equity is modeled by the price of a call option. In most cases there is a positive relationship between the level of leverage measured by the debt ratio and the risk measured by the loss-oriented risk measures. However, there exist exceptions. The risk premium is not a linear function of the risk. Still, for a reasonable range of leverage, the dependence of the risk premium on risk is approximately linear in most cases.     

On a risk model with random incomes and dependence between claim sizes and claim intervals

In this paper, we construct a risk model with a dependence setting where there exists a specific structure among the time between two claim occurrences, premium sizes and claim sizes. Given that the premium size is exponentially distributed, both the Laplace transforms and defective renewal equations for the expected discounted penalty functions are obtained. Exact representations for the solutions of the defective renewal equations are derived through an associated compound geometric distribution. When the claims are subexponentially distributed, the asymptotic formulae for ruin probabilities are obtained. Finally, when the individual premium sizes have rational Laplace transforms, the Laplace transforms for the expected discounted penalty functions are obtained.     

Pareto-optimal insurance contracts with premium budget and minimum charge constraints

In view of the fact that minimum charge and premium budget constraints are natural economic considerations in any risk-transfer between the insurance buyer and seller, this paper revisits the optimal insurance contract design problem in terms of Pareto optimality with imposing these practical constraints. Pareto optimal insurance contracts, with indemnity schedule and premium payment, are solved in the cases when the risk preferences of the buyer and seller are given by Value-at-Risk or Tail Value-at-Risk. The effect of our constraints and the relative bargaining powers of the buyer and seller on the Pareto optimal insurance contracts are highlighted. Numerical experiments are employed to further examine these effects for some given risk preferences.     

调和保费--一个新的定价模型

本文在经典的期望原理保费及风险调整保费的基础上建立一个调和保费的新的定价模型,并成功地引入了一个保险调和指数R.根据R的不同取值,我们可以将保险人的风险厌恶态度与被保险人的支付能力达成完美的结合.这种合理性使这个模型具有很重要的实用价值.     

Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

In this paper, we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Orlicz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium. The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund. The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer, and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer's retention is accumulated as a part of Catastrophe Fund. We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties, which are further confirmed by numerical simulations in R environment.     

跳扩散条件下波动率风险溢价及影响因素研究——基于上证50 ETF期权市场的实证

本文采用上证50 ETF及其期权交易数据,运用SVCJ模型、MCMC及傅里叶变换等方法,从P测度及Q测度中提取波动率风险溢价,并分析了其时变特征及影响因素。实证研究表明:SVCJ模型相较于SV模型及SVJ模型具有更好的市场拟合优度;傅里叶变换法能提高波动率风险溢价的估计效率;波动率风险溢价具有时变特征,在市场急剧动荡时期,波动率风险溢价基本为负,投资者厌恶波动风险,购买期权对冲波动风险的意愿较高;在市场非急剧动荡时期,波动率风险溢价基本为正,投资者偏好波动风险,购买期权对冲波动风险的意愿较低;市场收益率、波动率、换手率及投资者情绪对波动率风险溢价具有显著的影响。     

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??Motivated by[1] and [2], we study in this paper the optimal (from the insurer's point of view) reinsurance problem when risk is measured by a general risk measure, namely the GlueVaR distortion risk measures which is firstly proposed by [3].Suppose an insurer is exposed to the risk and decides to buy a reinsurance contract written on the total claim amounts basis, i.e. the reinsurer covers and the cedent covers . In addition, the insurer is obligated to compensate the reinsurer for undertaking the risk by paying the reinsurance premium, ( is the safety loading), under the expectation premium principle. Based on a technique used in [2], this paper derives the optimal ceded loss functions in a class of increasing convex ceded loss functions. It turns out that the optimal ceded loss function is of stop-loss type.     

A participatory multi-criteria approach for power generation and transmission planning

It is well-known that reinsurance can be an effective risk management solution for financial institutions such as the insurance companies. The optimal reinsurance solution depends on a number of factors including the criterion of optimization and the premium principle adopted by the reinsurer. In this paper, we analyze the Value-at-Risk based optimal risk management solution using reinsurance under a class of premium principles that is monotonic and piecewise. The monotonic piecewise premium principles include not only those which preserve stop-loss ordering, but also the piecewise premium principles which are monotonic and constructed by concatenating a series of premium principles. By adopting the monotonic piecewise premium principle, our proposed optimal reinsurance model has a number of advantages. In particular, our model has the flexibility of allowing the reinsurer to use different risk loading factors for a given premium principle or use entirely different premium principles depending on the layers of risk. Our proposed model can also analyze the optimal reinsurance strategy in the context of multiple reinsurers that may use different premium principles (as attributed to the difference in risk attitude and/or imperfect information). Furthermore, by artfully imposing certain constraints on the ceded loss functions, the resulting model can be used to capture the reinsurer’s willingness and/or capacity to accept risk or to control counterparty risk from the perspective of the insurer. Under some technical assumptions, we derive explicitly the optimal form of the reinsurance strategies in all the above cases. In particular, we show that a truncated stop-loss reinsurance treaty or a limited stop-loss reinsurance treaty can be optimal depending on the constraint imposed on the retained and/or ceded loss functions. Some numerical examples are provided to further compare and contrast our proposed models to the existing models.