A submartingale inequality

This paper extends Burkholder's inequality between a nonnegative submartingale and a process strongly differentially subordinate to it.

     

The submartingale problem for a class of degenerate elliptic operators

We consider the degenerate elliptic operator acting on ${C^2_b}$ functions on [0,∞) ^d : $$\mathcal{L}f(x)=\sum_{i=1}^d a_i(x) x_i^{\alpha_i} \frac{\partial^2 f}{\partial x_i^2} (x) +\sum_{i=1}^d b_i(x) \frac{\partial f}{\partial x_i}(x), $$ where the a _i are continuous functions that are bounded above and below by positive constants, the b _i are bounded and measurable, and the ${\alpha_i\in (0,1)}$ . We impose Neumann boundary conditions on the boundary of [0,∞) ^d . There will not be uniqueness for the submartingale problem corresponding to ${\mathcal{L}}$ . If we consider, however, only those solutions to the submartingale problem for which the process spends 0 time on the boundary, then existence and uniqueness for the submartingale problem for ${\mathcal{L}}$ holds within this class. Our result is equivalent to establishing weak uniqueness for the system of stochastic differential equations $$ {\rm d}X_t^i=\sqrt{2a_i(X_t)} (X_t^i)^{\alpha_i/2}{\rm d}W^i_t + b_i(X_t) {\rm d}t + {\rm d}L_t^{X^i},\quad X^i_t \geq 0, $$ where ${W_t^i}$ are independent Brownian motions and ${L^{X_i}_t}$ is a local time at 0 for X ⁱ .     

Conditional expectations and submartingale sequences of random Schwartz distributions

Let (Ω, Σ, P) be a fixed complete probability space, $\text{D}$ the real Schwartz space, and $\text{D′}$ its strong dual. $\text{D}$ and $\text{D′}$ are partially ordered by $\text{C}$ and $\text{C′}$ respectively, where $\text{C}$ is the positive cone of nonnegative functions in $\text{D}$ and $\text{C′}$ its dual in $\text{D′}$. $\text{C}$ is a strict $\text{B}$-cone and $\text{C′}$ is normal, where $\text{B}$ is the family of all bounded subsets of $\text{D}$. If X, Y are two random Schwartz distributions, then X ≤ Y if and only if Y(ω) ? X(ω) ∈ $\text{D′}$ for almost all $\text{ω ∈ Ω(P)}$. Integrability of random Schwartz distributions and properties of such integrals are discussed. The monotone convergence theorem, the dominated convergence theorem, and Fatou's lemma are proved. The existence of conditional expectations of integrable random Schwartz distributions relative to a given sub σ-field of Σ is shown. Properties of conditional expectations are discussed and the conditional form of the monotone convergence theorem is proved. Sub(super)-martingale sequences are defined via the partial order relations introduced above, and a convergence theorem is given. The notion of a potential is introduced and the Riesz decomposition theorem is proved.     

The use of vector-valued martingales in risk theory

A completely dependent risk process with perturbation and phase-type distributed claim sizes is analyzed. Claim arrivals are modeled by a Markovian arrival process. Using a vector-valued martingale, the Laplace transform of the time to ruin is derived algorithmically. The conditional memoryless property of the phase-type distribution yields the distribution of the deficit at ruin as a corollary.     

Tolerance intervals in risk theory

Up to now, the main aim of credibility theory has been to provide statistical models which allow for estimating (net) risk premiums appropriately. In the present note, a simple credibility model based on the percentile principle is introduced. It turns out that there are close connections between the resulting credibility premiums and statistical tolerance limits.     

Inversed martingales in risk theory

The theory of inversed martingales is used in order to prove a generalization of a result of H. Cramér on the probability of non-ruin for a classical surplus process if the initial reserve is positive.     

The trace class conjecture without the K-finiteness assumption

Let G be the group of real points of a reductive algebraic ℚ-group satisfying the same assumptions as in [5], Chapter I, and let Γ be a discrete subgroup of G. Let R_Γ be the right regular representation of G in L²(Γ\G). We prove in this Note that, for any integrable rapidly decreasing function ƒ on G, the restriction of R_Γ(ƒ) to the discrete spectrum of R_Γ is a trace class operator.     

Sharp maximal inequalities for stochastic integrals in which the integrator is a submartingale

We obtain sharp maximal inequalities for strong subordinates of real-valued submartingales. Analogous inequalities also hold for stochastic integrals in which the integrator is a submartingale. The impossibility of general moment inequalities is also demonstrated.

     

Characterizations of risk aversion in cumulative prospect theory

In this paper, we investigate the necessary and sufficient conditions for a decision maker to be monotone risk averse and left-monotone risk averse, respectively, in cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Our results show that the decision maker is more pessimistic than greedy if she is either monotone or left-monotone risk averse, which is similar to that of Chateauneuf et al. (Econ Theory 25(3):649–667, 2005) in the rank-dependent expected utility model. Detailed examples are presented to illustrate the main theorems. With this work, we make a progress in the characterizations of risk aversion in CPT, which is essential in understanding the features of CPT and its applications in finance and insurance.

     

Toward a bipolar theory of risk

Every man's attitude toward risk is a priori characterized by both a speculative pole and a conservative pole. Most men like high (speculative) gains and simultaneously dislike losses associated with a given venture. Such an attitude generates a conflict, which must be resolved when dealing with decisions under uncertainty. The traditional theories of risk implicitly assume that this conflict is erased when fitting an everywhere-concave (or convex) utility function. Such unipolar theories should be compared with a bipolar theory and more generally with a multicriterion theory of risk. Our mean-bipolar risk vector analysis generalizes the traditional mean-risk analysis. In Portfolio Selection, the mean-variance approach can be extended to include the speculative pole as well as the conservative pole: the variance is viewed as both desired and undesired components of riskiness.     

A risk approach by credibility theory

This paper attempts to treat some topics of risk theory by means of credibility theory. We study the risk aversion of an agent faced with a situation of uncertainty represented by a discrete fuzzy variable, the relationship between stochastic dominance and credibilistic dominance, and an index of riskiness of discrete credibilistic gambles. In the framework of an optimal saving credibilistic model, the way the presence of risk modifies the level of optimal saving is studied. The main tool of our investigation is an operator defined by B. Liu and Y. K. Liu by which to a discrete fuzzy variable one associates a discrete random variable with the same expected value as the former.     

Cumulative prospect theory and imprecise risk

Tversky and Kahneman have worked out an appealing model of decision making under uncertainty, involving rank- and sign-dependent utilities. This model, cumulative prospect theory (CPT), as well as related models proposed by other authors, has received wide acclaim. Available information and psychological attitude facing ambiguity jointly determine the subjective likelihood values the decision maker attributes to events, expressed by either one of two capacities depending on the prospect of either gains or losses; unfortunately, neither interpretation of these capacities nor prevision of their links are straightforward. An insight into these issues is given by studying consistency of CPT with certain generalized expected utility models, when faced with objective data described by lower–upper probability intervals. Means of testing the existence of subjectively lower–upper probabilized events are obtained, as well as means of evaluating ambiguity aversion.     

对CAPM模型检验中独立同分布正态假设重要性的实证分析

金融市场的数据大多不是iid正态的,但是通常针对CAPM的Wald检验和F检验均是基于这一假设的。本文采用一种不需要iid正态假定的基于GMM方法的检验统计量,对同一原假设进行了检验,并且将结果与美国和澳大利亚股市的实证结果进行了比较。结果表明上海股市的确不满足iid正态,而且GMM统计量的检验结果和通常的检验存在差异并有可能影响到判别的结果。     

The structure of higher-dimensional Iwasawa modules under a far-fetched assumption

From the assumption that Leopoldt’s conjecture fails and some mild extra assumptions, we deduce the existence of multiple $$mathbb {Z}_p$$-extensions whose Iwasawa modules are “large” in a precise sense. We are not aware of any constructions of such extensions that avoid our preposterously strong hypothesis.     

The tax identity in risk theory — a simple proof and an extension

By linking queueing concepts with risk theory, we give a simple and insightful proof of the tax identity in the Cramér-Lundberg model that was recently derived in Albrecher & Hipp [Albrecher, H., Hipp, C., 2007. Lundberg’s risk process with tax. Blätter der DGVFM 28 (1), 13-28], and extend the identity to arbitrary surplus-dependent tax rates.     

The balloting problem for random streams and its relation to problems in risk theory

We extend the classical balloting problem to the case of two random streams. The procedure has applications in risk theory.     

A numerical approach to utility functions in risk theory

Given the standard equilibrium model for an insurance market and sharing rules defining a feasible risk-exchange, we want to determine numerically the utility functions leading to the equilibrium. In the special case of two companies we approximate the sharing rules by piecewise linear functions and give an algorithm to compute piecewise quadratic utility functions which are solutions of the equilibrium model. We apply our method to compare some insurance contracts. For this we introduce the notion of acceptability of an insurance contract and a risk equivalence property based on utility theory. The numerical examples lead to interesting interpretations which give some insight in the considered insurance contracts.     

Computational methods in risk theory: A matrix-algorithmic approach

This paper is concerned with the numerical computation of the probability ψ(u) of ruin with initial reserve u. The basic assumption states that the claim size distribution is phase-type in the sense of Neuts. The models considered are: the classical compound Poisson risk process, the Sparre Anderse process and varying environments which are either governed by a Markov process or exhibit periodic fluctuations. The computational steps involve the iterative solution of a non-linear matrix equation Q = Ψ (Q) as well as the evaluation of matrix-exponentials e^Qu. A number of worked-out numerical examples are presented.