Exponential smoothing methods in pension funding

‘Smoothed-market’ methods are used by actuaries,when they value pension plan assets, in order to dampen thevolatility in contribution rates recommended to plan sponsors.A method involving exponential smoothing is considered. Thedynamics of the pension funding process is investigated in thecontext of a simple model where asset gains and losses emergeas a result of random rates of investment return and where thegains and losses are spread. It is shown that smoothing marketvalues up to a point does improve the stability of contributionsbut excessive smoothing is inefficient. It is also shown thatconsideration should be given to the combined effect of theasset valuation and gain and loss adjustment methods. Practicaland efficient combinations of gain/loss spreading periods andasset value smoothing parameters are suggested.     

Notes on the dynamics of pension funding

The authors follow up some previous work on the dynamics of pension funding by three notes. The first of these concerns contribution rates consisting of the normal cost plus a generalized amortization method for unfunded supplemental present value (actuarial accrued liability). The second note examines aggregate cost funding for active members when there exist consistent difference between the assumed and the actual rates of interest and of growth. The third note explores the operation of a variable annuity system in the context of our general model for pension funding dynamics.     

Time consistent pension funding in a defined benefit pension plan with non-constant discounting

We consider the time consistent management of a defined benefit stochastic pension plan where the participants have different rates of time preference and the fund manager collects this heterogeneity when discounting the future. The main objective is to select the amortization rate and the investment strategy minimizing both the contribution rate risk and the solvency risk. The problem is formulated as a stochastic control problem with non-constant rate of discount and is solved analytically by means of the dynamic programming approach and the technical interest rate is selected in order to keep stable the fund evolution within prescribed targets. A numerical illustration shows a comparative of the stability of the fund assets and the rate of contribution for a convex combination of exponential functions as discount function and for the constant discount case.     

Exploration of pension funding in case of exact vesting

A pension plan is said to be exactly vested if it provides in addition to the benefit available upon retirement, a benefit, upon termination for any cause prior to retirement, which is exactly equivalent to the actuarial accured liability for the terminating participant.The concept of exact vesting has simple application in defined contribution plans such as those of the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association. It is also feasible to develop the exact vesting concept for a defined benefit plan which uses an individual type of actuarial cost method. An exactly vested plan would have more individual equity than is available under customary vesting and early retirement provisions of defined benefit plans.In this paper, theory is developed for an exactly vested model plan in parallel to the theory for a pure pension model plan discussed in previous papers on pension funding dynamics.     

A benchmarking approach to optimal asset allocation for insurers and pension funds

We solve the optimal asset allocation problem for an insurer or pension fund by using a benchmarking approach. Under this approach the objective is an increasing function of the relative performance of the asset portfolio compared to a benchmark. The benchmark can be, for example, a function of an insurer’s liability payments, or the (either contractual or target) payments of a pension fund. The benchmarking approach tolerates but progressively penalizes shortfalls, while at the same time progressively rewards outperformance. Working in a general, possibly non-Markovian setting, a solution to the optimization problem is presented, providing insights into the impact of benchmarking on the resulting optimal portfolio. We further illustrate the results with a detailed example involving an option based benchmark of particular interest to insurers and pension funds, and present closed form solutions.     

A BSDE approach to risk-based asset allocation of pension funds with regime switching

An asset allocation problem of a member of a defined contribution (DC) pension fund is discussed in a hidden, Markov regime-switching, economy using backward stochastic differential equations, (BSDEs). A risk-based approach is considered, where the member selects an optimal asset mix with a view to minimizing the risk described by a convex risk measure of his/her terminal wealth. Firstly, filtering theory is adopted to transform the hidden, Markov regime-switching, economy into one with complete observations and to develop, (robust), filters for the hidden Markov chain. Then the optimal asset allocation problem of the member is formulated as a two-person, zero-sum stochastic differential game between the member and the market in the economy with complete observations. The BSDE approach is then used to solve the game problem and to characterize the saddle point of the game problem. An explicit expression for the optimal asset mix is obtained in the case of a convex risk measure with quadratic penalty and it can be considered a generalized version of the Merton ratio. An explicit expression for the optimal strategy of the market is also obtained, which leads to a risk-neutral wealth dynamic and may provide some insights into asset pricing in the economy with inflation risk and regime-switching risk. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate financial implications of the BSDE solution.     

Stochastic pension funding when the benefit and the risky asset follow jump diffusion processes

We study the asset allocation of defined benefit pension plans of the type designed and sponsored by firms with the aim of providing a lifetime pension to the employees at the age of retirement. Benefits are stochastic, combining Poisson jumps with Brownian uncertainty. The sponsor dynamically forms portfolios where the risky asset is also subjected to Poisson jumps and Brownian uncertainty, possibly correlated with the evolution of benefits. The objective is to assure future benefits, while controlling the contribution made to the fund reserves. The problem is solved analytically using dynamic programming techniques.     

A data-driven neural network approach to optimal asset allocation for target based defined contribution pension plans

A data-driven Neural Network (NN) optimization framework is proposed to determine optimal asset allocation during the accumulation phase of a defined contribution pension scheme. In contrast to parametric model based solutions computed by a partial differential equation approach, the proposed computational framework can scale to high dimensional multi-asset problems. More importantly, the proposed approach can determine the optimal NN control directly from market returns, without assuming a particular parametric model for the return process. We validate the proposed NN learning solution by comparing the NN control to the optimal control determined by solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. The HJB equation solution is based on a double exponential jump model calibrated to the historical market data. The NN control achieves nearly optimal performance. An alternative data-driven approach (without the need of a parametric model) is based on using the historic bootstrap resampling data sets. Robustness is checked by training with a blocksize different from the test data. In both two and three asset cases, we compare performance of the NN controls directly learned from the market return sample paths and demonstrate that they always significantly outperform constant proportion strategies.     

Dynamic style analysis of Spanish balanced pension plans: A Bayesian approach

This paper is focused on the dynamic allocations of Spanish balanced pension plans that invest predominantly in Euro‐zone equities. Applying a Bayesian method to a return‐based style analysis that includes the constraints of the strong version and time‐varying exposures, we provide evidence for no statistically significant changes over time in the main strategic asset allocations, namely, equity assets, long‐term debt and cash allocations. However, we find time‐varying selection abilities, indicating that the value added by managers is not the same over time. Although the investment style tends to be constant in each pension plan, these allocations are variable across plans which allow us to find different subsets of portfolios that present different mean returns and volatilities. Some pension plan features, such as size and type of financial institution that manages the portfolio, have been considered in trying to find concurrent characteristics in each subset. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal mix between pay-as-you-go and funding for DC pension schemes in an overlapping generations model

Public pension systems are usually pay-as-you-go financed, that is, current contributions cover the pension expenditures. However, some countries combine funding and pay-as-you-go within the first pillar. This article studies a mixed system where a part of the individual’s contribution accrues funded rights whereas the other part accrues pay-as-you-go rights. Diversification conditions between these two financing techniques are derived in a mean–variance framework for two distinct contexts: for a cohort entering the system (named ex-ante case) and for multiple cohorts coexisting at the same period of time (named ex-post case). The diversification benefits in presence of a liquidity constraint which ensures that the income from contributions is sufficient to cover the pension expenditures are also studied. We show that, on the one hand, diversification benefits individuals when the economy is dynamically efficient for the ex-ante case. On the other hand, diversification is unattractive when pay-as-ou-go and funding are positively correlated for the ex-post case.     

A vague set based decision support approach for evaluating research funding programs

Scientific Research Assessment (SRA) is receiving increasing attention in both academic and industry. More and more organizations are recognizing the importance of SRA for the optimal use of scarce resources. In this paper, a vague set theory based decision support approach is proposed for SRA. Specifically, a family of parameterized S-OWA operator is developed for the aggregation of vague assessments. The proposed approach is introduced to evaluate the research funding programs of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). It provides a soft and expansive way to help the decision maker in NSFC to make his decisions. The proposed approach can also be used for some other agencies to make similar assessment.     

Dynamic project selection and funding under risk: A decision tree based MILP approach

This paper presents a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model for a new class of dynamic project selection and funding problems under risk given multiple scarce resources of different qualifications. The underlying stochastic decision tree concept extends classical approaches mainly in that it adds a novel node type that allows for the continuous control of discrete branching probability distributions. The control functions are piecewise linear and are convex for the costs and concave for the benefits. The MILP-model has been embedded in a prototype Decision Support System (DSS). With respect to the proposed solution the DSS provides complete probability distributions for both costs and benefits.     

A stochastic theory of pension dynamics

Based on a semi-Markov reward process, a stochastic theory of pension dynamics is developed to characterize the ultimate benefits (and costs) to be derived by a group of similar workers from their career membership in pension plans. This characterization is in terms of a number of basic functions representing the expected value and variability of benefits and costs. Analytical and numerical investigation of these functions provide useful insights into the effects of plan types, vesting rules, coverage, and portability.     

A stochastic simulation procedure for pension schemes

This paper deals with the calculation of some quantities concerning pension schemes by means of stochastic simulation. A very simple procedure, suitable for a typical pension scheme model, is here proposed. It supplies us with a noteworthy time-saving calculation tool, as opposed to a simulation procedure based on a different approach. Comparisons between the calculation times required in numerical experiences by these two different procedures, as well as some results thereby obtained, are then presented.     

Risk measurement and management of defined benefit pension schemes: a stochastic approach

The traditional actuarial valuation for defined benefit pensionschemes operates on the basis of a set of deterministic calculationscombined with actuarial judgment. It has played an importantrole in guiding decision-making as far as the level of fundingis concerned. The paper argues that stochastic methods can addvalue in certain crucial areas, in particular the financialrisk management of such schemes. The traditional approach torisk is to incorporate margins in the valuation assumptions;however, a stochastic approach allows the user to evaluate specificand quantifiable risk and performance measures in respect ofalternative funding and investment strategies. The paper introducesa framework that measures the risks inherent in asset allocationand contribution rate decisions, allowing decisions to be madeon a more informed basis. In doing this, we suggest and applysome potential risk and performance measures. This frameworkprovides the means to explore the trade-offs involved in possiblecontribution and asset allocation decisions and leads to decisionstrategies that are expected to give improved outcomes for thesame level of risk. A realistic case study is used to illustratethe properties of the methodology and how it might be used.     

A new defined benefit pension risk measurement methodology

Defined benefit pension plan sponsors have taken on greater risks for sponsoring these plans in the last several years. Due to ever increasing concerns of longevity risk and the weak economic environment, sponsors are eager to understand their pension-related risks to facilitate optimal enterprise decision-making. Borrowing an analytical framework from the life insurance and annuity industry where the amount of risk is framed in terms of the total assets required to remain solvent over a one-year period with a high level of confidence, i.e., the economic capital approach, this paper develops a benchmark risk measure for pension sponsors by obtaining a total asset requirement for sustaining the pension plan. The difference between the total asset requirement and the actual trust assets thus provides a measure of sponsor assets at risk due to plan sponsorship. Two factor-based approaches are proposed for this calculation. The first approach develops a set of pension-specific factors as if the pension plan were a group annuity. The second approach directly simulates the risk drivers of the pension plan and develops a framework for obtaining factors and calculating the pension risk given a desired confidence level. Our approach is very easy to implement and monitor in practice.     

Swiss coherent mortality model as a basis for developing longevity de-risking solutions for Swiss pension funds: A practical approach

Pension funds in Switzerland are exposed to longevity risk possibly to a greater extent than in many other developed economies. The ground for this is a dearth of financial products to combat longevity risk, with a lack of buy-in and very limited variety of buy-out solutions available. The solutions that do exist frequently come at a very high price and many pension funds are in deficit on a buy-out basis. From our point of view creating an approach for evaluating the longevity risk faced by each pension fund and integrating it into dynamic risk budgeting strategies will help Swiss pension funds better understand the mechanism behind different longevity de-risking solutions and decide on the most suitable as well as affordable solution for them. To develop capital market solutions for longevity hedging strategies it is crucial that both hedgers (pension funds) as well as solution providers are able to quantify the longevity risk in the framework of a holistic risk management and to develop an adequate pricing approach.In this publication we present our stochastic coherent mortality model developed for Swiss pension funds based on the reference population of fifteen countries and discuss the robustness of the forecasts relative to the sample period used to fit the model, biological reasonableness of the forecasts and other modelling parameters as well as possible impact on results. The model has taken into account past single population modelling techniques and allows flexible age effect to capture the spread behaviour introduced by the target population. The augmented terms for the spread function are chosen based on their forecast accuracy and a coherent behaviour is expected in the long term. The idea behind is fairly simple and yields a design with both transparency and robustness. The model usage is not limited to Switzerland.     

A risk-based model for the valuation of pension insurance

In the US, defined benefit plans are insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). Taking account of the fact that the PBGC covers only the residual deficits of the pension fund the sponsoring company is unable to cover and that the plans can be prematurely terminated, we consider a model that accounts for the joint dynamics of the pension fund’s and sponsoring firm’s assets in order to effectively determine the risk-based pension premium for the insurance provided by the PBGC. We obtain a closed-form pricing formula for this risk-based premium. Its magnitude depends highly on the investment portfolio of the pension fund and of the sponsoring company as well as the correlation between these two portfolios.     

A combinatorial approach to complexity

We present a problem of construction of certain intersection graphs. If these graphs were explicitly constructed, we would have an explicit construction of Boolean functions of large complexity.