Itô’s stochastic calculus: Its surprising power for applications

We trace Itô’s early work in the 1940s, concerning stochastic integrals, stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and Itô’s formula. Then we study its developments in the 1960s, combining it with martingale theory. Finally, we review a surprising application of Itô’s formula in mathematical finance in the 1970s. Throughout the paper, we treat Itô’s jump SDEs driven by Brownian motions and Poisson random measures, as well as the well-known continuous SDEs driven by Brownian motions.     

Poisson point processes,excursions and stable processes in two-dimensional structures

Itô’s contributions lie at the root of stochastic calculus and of the theory of excursions. These ideas are also very useful in the study of conformally invariant two-dimensional structures, via conformal loop ensembles, excursions of Schramm–Loewner evolutions and Poisson point processes of Brownian loops.     

Exponential stability of numerical solutions for a class of stochastic age-dependent capital system with Poisson jumps

Recently, numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations have received a great deal of attention. Numerical approximation schemes are invaluable tools for exploring their properties. In this paper, we introduce a class of stochastic age-dependent (vintage) capital system with Poisson jumps. We also give the discrete approximate solution with an implicit Euler scheme in time discretization. Using Gronwall’s lemma and Barkholder-Davis-Gundy’s inequality, some criteria are obtained for the exponential stability of numerical solutions to the stochastic age-dependent capital system with Poisson jumps. It is proved that the numerical approximation solutions converge to the analytic solutions of the equations under the given conditions, where information on the order of approximation is provided. These error bounds imply strong convergence as the timestep tends to zero. A numerical example is used to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Moment properties of multivariate infinitely divisible laws and criteria for multivariate self-decomposability

Ramachandran (1969) [9, Theorem 8] has shown that for any univariate infinitely divisible distribution and any positive real number α, an absolute moment of order α relative to the distribution exists (as a finite number) if and only if this is so for a certain truncated version of the corresponding Lévy measure. A generalized version of this result in the case of multivariate infinitely divisible distributions, involving the concept of g-moments, was given by Sato (1999) [6, Theorem 25.3]. We extend Ramachandran’s theorem to the multivariate case, keeping in mind the immediate requirements under appropriate assumptions of cumulant studies of the distributions referred to; the format of Sato’s theorem just referred to obviously varies from ours and seems to have a different agenda. Also, appealing to a further criterion based on the Lévy measure, we identify in a certain class of multivariate infinitely divisible distributions the distributions that are self-decomposable; this throws new light on structural aspects of certain multivariate distributions such as the multivariate generalized hyperbolic distributions studied by Barndorff-Nielsen (1977) [12] and others. Various points relevant to the study are also addressed through specific examples.     

Moderate deviations for a risk model based on the customer-arrival process

In this paper, we investigate the moderate deviations for a customer-arrival-based insurance risk model, in which customer’s actual claim sizes are described as independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables multiplying a shot function, and the model can be treated as a Poisson shot noise process.     

On testing equality of pairwise rank correlations in a multivariate random vector

Spearman’s rank-correlation coefficient (also called Spearman’s rho) represents one of the best-known measures to quantify the degree of dependence between two random variables. As a copula-based dependence measure, it is invariant with respect to the distribution’s univariate marginal distribution functions. In this paper, we consider statistical tests for the hypothesis that all pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector are equal. The tests are nonparametric and their asymptotic distributions are derived based on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical copula process. Only weak assumptions on the distribution function, such as continuity of the marginal distributions and continuous partial differentiability of the copula, are required for obtaining the results. A nonparametric bootstrap method is suggested for either estimating unknown parameters of the test statistics or for determining the associated critical values. We present a simulation study in order to investigate the power of the proposed tests. The results are compared to a classical parametric test for equal pairwise Pearson’s correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector. The general setting also allows the derivation of a test for stochastic independence based on Spearman’s rho.     

Stochastic equations of super-Lévy processes with general branching mechanism

In this work, the process of distribution functions of a one-dimensional super-Lévy process with general branching mechanism is characterized as the pathwise unique solution of a stochastic integral equation driven by time–space Gaussian white noises and Poisson random measures. This generalizes the recent work of Xiong (2013), where the result for a super-Brownian motion with binary branching mechanism was obtained.     

On exceedances of high levels

The distribution of the excess process describing heights of extreme values can be approximated by the distribution of a Poisson cluster process. An estimate of the accuracy of such an approximation has been derived in [4] in terms of the Wasserstein distance. The paper presents a sharper estimate established in terms of the stronger total variation distance. We derive also a new bound to the accuracy of negative Binomial approximation to the distribution of the number of exceedances.     

The gambler’s ruin problem with delays

A recent paper by  Pozdnyakov and Steele (2010) is devoted to the so-called binary-plus-passive design. Two problems that the authors do not consider can be identified with the classical gambler’s ruin problem in which delays are allowed.     

Non-uniqueness of stationary measures for self-stabilizing processes

We investigate the existence of invariant measures for self-stabilizing diffusions. These stochastic processes represent roughly the behavior of some Brownian particle moving in a double-well landscape and attracted by its own law. This specific self-interaction leads to nonlinear stochastic differential equations and permits pointing out singular phenomena like non-uniqueness of associated stationary measures. The existence of several invariant measures is essentially based on the non-convex environment and requires generalized Laplace’s method approximations.     

Hoeffding’s inequality for supermartingales

We give an extension of Hoeffding’s inequality to the case of supermartingales with differences bounded from above. Our inequality strengthens or extends the inequalities of Freedman, Bernstein, Prohorov, Bennett and Nagaev.     

Rescaled Lévy-Loewner hulls and random growth

We consider radial Loewner evolution driven by unimodular Lévy processes. We rescale the hulls of the evolution by capacity, and prove that the weak limit of the rescaled hulls exists. We then study a random growth model obtained by driving the Loewner equation with a compound Poisson process. The process involves two real parameters: the intensity of the underlying Poisson process and a localization parameter of the Poisson kernel which determines the jumps. A particular choice of parameters yields a growth process similar to the Hastings-Levitov HL(0) model. We describe the asymptotic behavior of the hulls with respect to the parameters, showing that growth tends to become localized as the jump parameter increases. We obtain deterministic evolutions in one limiting case, and Loewner evolution driven by a unimodular Cauchy process in another. We show that the Hausdorff dimension of the limiting rescaled hulls is equal to 1. Using a different type of compound Poisson process, where the Poisson kernel is replaced by the heat kernel, as driving function, we recover one case of the aforementioned model and SLE(κ) as limits.     

Coupling and Poisson approximation

We give an overview of the Stein-Chen method for establishing Poisson approximations of various random variables. Couplings of certain variables are used to gives explicit bounds for the total variation distance between the distribution of a random variable and a Poisson variable. Some applications are given. In some cases, explicit couplings may be used to obtain good estimates; in other applications it suffices to show the existence of couplings with certain monotonicity properties.Supported by the Göran Gustafsson Foundation for Research in Natural Sciences and Medicine.     

A fractional credit model with long range dependent default rate

Motivated by empirical evidence of long range dependence in macroeconomic variables like interest rates we propose a fractional Brownian motion driven model to describe the dynamics of the short and the default rate in a bond market. Aiming at results analogous to those for affine models we start with a bivariate fractional Vasicek model for short and default rate, which allows for fairly explicit calculations. We calculate the prices of corresponding defaultable zero-coupon bonds by invoking Wick calculus. Applying a Girsanov theorem we derive today’s prices of European calls and compare our results to the classical Brownian model.     

An extension of a logarithmic form of Cramér’s ruin theorem to some FARIMA and related processes

Cramér’s theorem provides an estimate for the tail probability of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift and increments having a moment generating function finite in a neighborhood of the origin. The class of (g,F)$(g,F)$-processes generalizes in a natural way random walks and fractional ARIMA models used in time series analysis. For those (g,F)$(g,F)$-processes with negative drift, we obtain a logarithmic estimate of the tail probability of their maximum, under conditions comparable to Cramér’s. Furthermore, we exhibit the most likely paths as well as the most likely behavior of the innovations leading to a large maximum.     

An optimal stopping problem for fragmentation processes

In this article we consider a toy example of an optimal stopping problem driven by fragmentation processes. We show that one can work with the concept of stopping lines to formulate the notion of an optimal stopping problem and moreover, to reduce it to a classical optimal stopping problem for a generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process associated with Bertoin’s tagged fragment. We go on to solve the latter using a classical verification technique thanks to the application of aspects of the modern theory of integrated exponential Lévy processes.     

Pricing basket default swaps in a tractable shot noise model

We value CDS spreads and kth-to-default swap spreads in a tractable shot noise model. The default dependence is modelled by letting the individual jumps of the default intensity be driven by a common latent factor. The arrival of the jumps is driven by a Poisson process. By using conditional independence and properties of the shot noise processes we derive tractable closed form expressions for the default distribution and the ordered survival distributions. These quantities are then used to price kth-to-default swap spreads. We calibrate a homogeneous version of the model to the term structure on market data from the iTraxx Europe index series sampled during the period 2008-01-14 to 2010-02-11. We perform 435 calibrations in this turbulent period and almost all calibrations yield very good fits. Finally we study kth-to-default spreads in the calibrated model.     

Path regularity and explicit convergence rate for BSDE with truncated quadratic growth

We consider backward stochastic differential equations with drivers of quadratic growth (qgBSDE). We prove several statements concerning path regularity and stochastic smoothness of the solution processes of the qgBSDE, in particular we prove an extension of Zhang’s path regularity theorem to the quadratic growth setting. We give explicit convergence rates for the difference between the solution of a qgBSDE and its truncation, filling an important gap in numerics for qgBSDE. We give an alternative proof of second order Malliavin differentiability for BSDE with drivers that are Lipschitz continuous (and differentiable), and then derive an analogous result for qgBSDE.     

Compound Poisson Approximation of the Number of Exceedances in Gaussian Sequences

Consider a finite sequence of Gaussian random variables. Count the number of exceedances of some level a, i.e. the number of values exceeding the level. Let this level and the length of the sequence increase simultaneously so that the expected number of exceedances remains fixed. It is well-known that if the long-range dependence is not too strong, the number of exceeding points converges in distribution to a Poisson distribution. However, for sequences with some individual large correlations, the Poisson convergence is slow due to clumping. Using Steins method we show that, at least for m-dependent sequences, the rate of convergence is improved by using compound Poisson as approximating distribution. An explicit bound for the convergence rate is derived for the compound Poisson approximation, and also for a subclass of the compound Poisson distribution, where only clumps of size two are considered. Results from numerical calculations and simulations are also presented.     

Stochastic optimization theory of backward stochastic differential equations with jumps and viscosity solutions of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations

In this paper we study stochastic optimal control problems with jumps with the help of the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) with jumps. We generalize the results of Peng [S. Peng, BSDE and stochastic optimizations, in: J. Yan, S. Peng, S. Fang, L. Wu, Topics in Stochastic Analysis, Science Press, Beijing, 1997 (Chapter 2) (in Chinese)] by considering cost functionals defined by controlled BSDEs with jumps. The application of BSDE methods, in particular, the use of the notion of stochastic backward semigroups introduced by Peng in the above-mentioned work allows a straightforward proof of a dynamic programming principle for value functions associated with stochastic optimal control problems with jumps. We prove that the value functions are the viscosity solutions of the associated generalized Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations with integral-differential operators. For this proof, we adapt Peng’s BSDE approach, given in the above-mentioned reference, developed in the framework of stochastic control problems driven by Brownian motion to that of stochastic control problems driven by Brownian motion and Poisson random measure.