On the sequence of Bayesian estimates of normal random walk process

Let (μ_t)^∞_t=0 be a k-variate (k?1) normal random walk process with successive increments being independently distributed as normal N(δ, R), and μ₀ being distributed as normal N(0, V₀). Let X_t have normal distribution N(μ_t, Σ) when μ_t is given, t = 1, 2,….Then the conditional distribution of μ_t given X₁, X₂,…, X_t is shown to be normal N(U_t, V_t) where U_t's and V_t's satisfy some recursive relations. It is found that there exists a positive definite matrix V and a constant θ, 0 < θ < 1, such that, for all t?1,

$\text{|R}\text{1}\text{2}\text{(V}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}{}_{\mathrm{t}}\text{?V}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}\text{R}\text{1}\text{2}\text{|<θ}{}^{\mathrm{t}}\text{|R}\text{1}\text{2}\text{(V}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}{}_0\text{?V}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}\text{)R}\text{1}\text{2}\text{|}$

where the norm |·| means that |A| is the largest eigenvalue of a positive definite matrix A. Thus, V_t approaches to V as t approaches to infinity. Under the quadratic loss, the Bayesian estimate of μ_t is U_t and the process {U_t}^∞_t=₀, U₀=0, is proved to have independent successive increments with normal N(θ, V_t?V_t+1+R) distribution. In particular, when V₀ =V then V_t = V for all t and {U_t}^∞_t=0 is the same as {μ_t}^∞_t=0 except that U₀ = 0 and μ₀ is random.     

Strong approximation theorems for density dependent Markov chains

A variety of continuous parameter Markov chains arising in applied probability (e.g. epidemic and chemical reaction models) can be obtained as solutions of equations of the form

$\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)=x}{}_0\text{+∑}\text{1}\text{N}\text{lY}{}_1\text{N ∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{f}{}_1\text{(X}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(s))ds}$

where $\text{l∈}\text{Z}{}^{\mathrm{t}}$, the Y₁ are independent Poisson processes, and N is a parameter with a natural interpretation (e.g. total population size or volume of a reacting solution).The corresponding deterministic model, satisfies

$\text{X(t)=x}{}_0\text{+ ∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{∑ lf}{}_1\text{(X(s))ds}$

Under very general conditions lim_N→∞X_N(t)=X(t) a.s. The process X_N(t) is compared to the diffusion processes given by

$\text{Z}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)=x}{}_0\text{+∑}\text{1}\text{N}\text{lB}{}_1\text{N∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{ft(Z}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(s))ds}$

and

$\text{V(t)=∑ l∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{f}{}_1\text{(X(s))}\text{d}\text{W}\text{?}{}_1\text{+∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{?F(X(s))·V(s)}\text{ds.}$

Under conditions satisfied by most of the applied probability models, it is shown that X_N,Z_N and V can be constructed on the same sample space in such a way that

$\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)=Z}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)+O}\text{logN}\text{N}$

and

$\text{N}\text{(X}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)?X(t))=V(t)+O}\text{log N}\text{N}$

     

Diffusion approximations of age-and-position dependent branching processes

By a (G, F, h) age-and-position dependent branching process we mean a process in which individuals reproduce according to an age dependent branching process with age distribution function G(t) and offspring distribution generating function F, the individuals (located in R^N) can not move and the distance of a new individual from its parent is governed by a probability density function h(r). For each positive integer n, let Z_n(t,dx) be the number of individuals in dx at time t of the (G, F_n,h_n) age-and-position dependent branching process. It is shown that under appropriate conditions on G, F_n and h_n, the finite dimensional distribution of $\text{Z}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{(nt, dx)}\text{n}$ converges, as n → ∞, to the corresponding law of a diffusion continuous state branching process X(t,dx) determined by a ψ-semigroup {ψ_t: t ? 0}. The ψ-semigroup {ψ_t} is the solution of a non-linear evolution equation. A semigroup convergence theorem due to Kurtz [10], which gives conditions for convergence in distribution of a sequence of non-Markovian processes to a Markov process, provides the main tools.     

The rate of convergence in Orey's theorem for Harris recurrent Markov chains with applications to renewal theory

We derive sufficient conditions for ∝ λ (dx)6Pⁿ(x, ·) - π6 to be of order o(ψ(n)^-1), where Pⁿ (x, A) are the transition probabilities of an aperiodic Harris recurrent Markov chain, π is the invariant probability measure, λ an initial distribution and ψ belongs to a suitable class of non-decreasing sequences. The basic condition involved is the ergodicity of order ψ, which in a countable state space is equivalent to $\text{Σ ψ(n)}\text{P}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{{τ}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{?n} <∞}$ for some i, where τ_i is the hitting time of the tate i. We also show that for a general Markov chain to be ergodic of order ψ it suffices that a corresponding condition is satisfied by a small set.We apply these results to non-singular renewal measures on $\text{R}$ providing a probabilisite method to estimate the right tail of the renewal measure when the increment distribution F satisfies ∝ tF(dt) 0; > 0 and ∝ ψ(t)(1- F(t))dt< ∞.     

Equivalence of measures for some class of Gaussian random fields

We consider two Gaussian measures P₁ and P₂ on (C(G), $\text{B}$) with zero expectations and covariance functions R₁(x, y) and R₂(x, y) respectively, where R_ν(x, y) is the Green's function of the Dirichlet problem for some uniformly strongly elliptic differential operator A^(ν) of order $\text{2m, m ≥ [}\text{d}\text{2}\text{] + 1}$, on a bounded domain G in $\text{R}$^d (ν = 1, 2). It is shown that if the order of A⁽²⁾ ? A⁽¹⁾ is at most $\text{2m ? [}\text{d}\text{2}\text{] ? 1}$, then P₁ and P₂ are equivalent, while if the order is greater than $\text{2m ? [}\text{d}\text{2}\text{] ? 1}$, then P₁ and P₂ are not always equivalent.     

Extinction probability for a critical general branching process

A general branching process begins with a single individual born at time t=0. At random ages during its random lifespan L it gives birth to offspring, N(t) being the number born in the age interval [0,t]. Each offspring behaves as a probabilistically independent copy of the initial individual. Let Z(t) be the population at time t, and let N=N(∞). Theorem: If a general branching process is critical, i. e E{N}=1, and if $\text{σ}{}^2\text{=E {N(N?1)}<∞, 0<a≡}\text{∫}\text{0}\text{∞}\text{tdE{N(t)}}$,and as t → ∞ both $\text{t}{}^2\text{(1?}\text{E}\text{{N(t)})→0}$ and $\text{t}{}^2\text{P}\text{[L>t]→0}$, then $\text{tP[Z(t)>0]→}\text{2a}\text{σ}{}^2$ as t→∞.     

Properties of Hida processes on R2. 2. Prediction and interpolation problems for processes on R2

The properties of N-Hida processes Part 1 (B. Prum, 1984, J. Multivar. Anal.15, 336–360) are studied when the indices set is $\text{R}$². First, the past of a point (s, t) of $\text{R}$² is extended to $\text{G}$_st = σ{γ_uv, u ≤ s or v ≤ t}. The dimension of the linear space generated by the conditional expectations of an N-Hida process γ_z when z goes over a p × q lattice is bounded by N(p + q ? 1). The same problem is then considered when the expectations are taken conditionally to the field generated by the process outside of a rectangle, and the bound of the dimension of the linear space generated on a lattice is also given. Special attention is devoted to the case when γ_z is a combination of strong martingales.     

Infinite-variate wide-sense Markov processes and functional analysis for bounded operator-forming vectors

Let p, q be arbitrary parameter sets, and let $\text{H}$ be a Hilbert space. We say that x = (xⁱ)_i?q, xⁱ ? $\text{H}$, is a bounded operator-forming vector (?$\text{H}$_F^q) if the Gram matrix 〈x, x〉 = [(xⁱ, x^j)]_i?q,j?q is the matrix of a bounded (necessarily ≥ 0) operator on $\text{l}{}_{\mathrm{q}}{}^2$, the Hilbert space of square-summable complex-valued functions on q. Let A be p × q, i.e., let A be a linear operator from $\text{l}{}_{\mathrm{q}}{}^2$ to $\text{l}{}_{\mathrm{p}}{}^2$. Then exists a linear operator ǎ from (the Banach space) $\text{H}$_F^q to $\text{H}$_F^p on $\text{D}$(A) = {x:x ? $\text{H}$_F^q, $\text{A〈x, x〉}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}$ is p × q bounded on $\text{l}{}_{\mathrm{q}}{}^2$} such that y = ǎx satisfies y^j?σ(x) = {space spanned by the xⁱ}, 〈y, x〉 = A〈x, x〉 and $\text{〈y, y〉 = A〈x, x〉}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{(A〈x, x〉}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{)}{}^1$. This is a generalization of our earlier [J. Multivariate Anal.4 (1974), 166–209; 6 (1976), 538–571] results for the case of a spectral measure concentrated on one point. We apply these tools to investigate q-variate wide-sense Markov processes.     

Construction of translation planes from t-spread sets

A t-spread set [1] is a set $\text{C}$ of (t + 1) × (t + 1) matrices over GF(q) such that ∥C∥ = q^t+1, 0 ? C, I?C, and det(X ? Y) ≠ 0 if X and Y are distinct elements of $\text{C}$. The amount of computation involved in constructing t-spread sets is considerable, and the following construction technique reduces somewhat this computation. Construction: Let $\text{G}$ be a subgroup of GL(t + 1, q), (the non-singular (t + 1) × (t + 1) matrices over GF(q)), such that ∥G∥|a^t+1, and det (G ? H) ≠ 0 if G and H are distinct elements of $\text{G}$. Let A₁, A₂, …, A_n?GL(t + 1, q) such that det(A_i ? G) ≠ 0 for i = 1, …, n and all G?G, and det(A_i ? A_jG) ≠ 0 for i > j and all G?G. Let $\text{C = \&{0\&} ∪ G ∪ A}{}_1\text{G ∪ … ∪ A}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{G}$, and ∥C∥ = q^t+1. Then $\text{C}$ is a t-spread set. A t-spread set can be used to define a left V ? W system over V(t + 1, q) as follows: x + y is the vector sum; let e?V(t + 1, q), then xoy = yM(x) where M(x) is the unique element of $\text{C}$ with x = eM(x). Theorem: Let$\text{C}$be a t-spread set and F the associatedV ? Wsystem; the left nucleus = {y | CM(y) = C}, and the middle nucleus = }y | M(y)C = C}. Theorem: For$\text{C}$constructed as aboveG ? {M(x) | x?N_λ}. This construction technique has been applied to construct a V ? W system of order 25 with ∥N_λ∥ = 6, and ∥N_μ∥ = 4. This system coordinatizes a new projective plane.     

A central limit theorem for the sojourn times of strongly ergodic Markov chains

Let X_n be an irreducible aperiodic recurrent Markov chain with countable state space I and with the mean recurrence times having second moments. There is proved a global central limit theorem for the properly normalized sojourn times. More precisely, if $\text{t}{}^{\mathrm{(n}}\text{)}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{=Σ}{}^{\mathrm{n}}{}_{\mathrm{k=1}}\text{i}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{(X}{}_{\mathrm{k}}\text{)}$, then the probability measures induced by {t⁽ⁿ⁾_i/√n?√nπ_i}_i?I(π_i being the ergotic distribution) on the Hilbert-space of square summable I-sequences converge weakly in this space to a Gaussian measure determined by a certain weak potential operator.     

Semi-stable Markov processes in rn

A Markov process in Rⁿ{x_t} with transition function P_t is called semi-stable of order α>0 if for every a>0, P_t(x, E) = P_at(a^ax, a^aE). Let ?_t(ω)=∫^t₀|x_s(ω)|^-1/α ds, T(t) be its inverse and {y_t}={x_T(t)}.Theorem 1: {Y_t} is a multiplicative invariant process; i.e., it has transition function q_t satisfying q_t(x,E)=q_t(ax,aE) for all a > 0.Theorem 2: If {x_t} is Feller, right continuous and uniformly stochastic continuous on a neighborhood of the origin, then {y_t} is Feller.     

Potential theory associated with Uhlenbeck-Ornstein process

Some parallel results of Gross' paper (Potential theory on Hilbert space, J. Functional Analysis1 (1967), 123–181) are obtained for Uhlenbeck-Ornstein process U(t) in an abstract Wiener space (H, B, i). Generalized number operator $\text{N}$ is defined by $\text{N}$f(x) = ?lim_∈←0{E[f($\text{U}$(τ^∈_ξ))] ? f(x)}/E[τ^∈_ξ, where τ_x^? is the first exit time of U(t) starting at x from the ball of radius ? with center x. It is shown that $\text{N}$f(x) = ?trace D²f(x)+〈Df(x),x〉 for a large class of functions f. Let r_t(x, dy) be the transition probabilities of U(t). The λ-potential G_λf, λ > 0, and normalized potential Rf of f are defined by G_λf(X) = ∫₀^∞e^?λtr_tf(x) dt and Rf(x) = ∫₀^∞ [r_tf(x) ? r_tf(0)] dt. It is shown that if f is a bounded Lip-1 function then trace D²G_λf(x) ? 〈DG_λf(x), x〉 = ?f(x) + λG_λf(x) and trace D²Rf(x) ? 〈DRf(x), x〉 = ?f(x) + ∫_Bf(y)p₁(dy), where p₁ is the Wiener measure in B with parameter 1. Some approximation theorems are also proved.     

Subordination,rank, and determinism of multivariate stationary sequences

Necessary and sufficient conditions for an arbitrary q-variate stationary sequence x_t, t ∈ $\text{Z}$, to be deterministic are presented. A characterization of the rank r(x) of x_t, t ∈ $\text{Z}$, and a method to construct the Wold-Cramér decomposition for x_t, t ∈ $\text{Z}$, are given. Subordination of q-variate bounded orthogonally scattered vector measures is considered.     

Sojourns and extremes of Fourier sums and series with random coefficients

Let X(t) be the trigonometric polynomial Σ^k_j=0a_j(U_tcosjt+V_jsinjt), –∞< t<∞, where the coefficients U_t and V_t are random variables and a_j is real. Suppose that these random variables have a joint distribution which is invariant under all orthogonal transformations of R^2k–2. Then X(t) is stationary but not necessarily Gaussian. Put L_t(u) = Lebesgue measure {s: 0?s?t, X(s) > u}, and M(t) = max{X(s): 0?s?t}. Limit theorems for L_t(u) and $\text{P}\text{(M(t) > u)}$ for u→∞ are obtained under the hypothesis that the distribution of the random norm (Σ^k_j=0(U²_j+V²_j))^{1 2} belongs to the domain of attraction of the extreme value distribution exp{ e^–2}. The results are also extended to the random Fourier series (k=∞).     

A remark on the tail probability of a distribution

Let {X_n}_n≥1 be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. For each integer n ≥ 1 and positive constants r, t, and ?, let S_n = Σ_j=1ⁿX_j and $\text{E{N}{}_{\mathrm{\infty }}\text{(r, t, ?)} = Σ}{}_{\mathrm{n=1}}{}^{\mathrm{\infty }}\text{n}{}^{\mathrm{r?2}}\text{P{|S}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{| > ?n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>r</mtext><mtext>t</mtext>}}\text{}}$. In this paper, we prove that (1) lim_?→0+?^α(r?1)E{N_∞(r, t, ?)} = K(r, t) if E(X₁) = 0, Var(X₁) = 1, and E(| X₁ |^t) < ∞, where 2 ≤ t < 2r ≤ 2t, $\text{K(r, t) =}\text{{2}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>\alpha (r?1)</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{Γ(}\text{(1 + α(r ? 1))}\text{2}\text{)}}\text{{(r ? 1) Γ(}\text{1}\text{2}\text{)}}$, and $\text{α =}\text{2t}\text{(2r ? t)}$; (2) $\text{lim}{}_{\mathrm{?\to 0+}}\text{G(t, ?)}\text{H(t, ?)}\text{= 0}$ if 2 < t < 4, E(X₁) = 0, Var(X₁) > 0, and E(|X₁|^t) < ∞, where G(t, ?) = E{N_∞(t, t, ?)} = Σ_n=1^∞n^t?2P{| S_n | > ?n} → ∞ as ? → 0+ and $\text{H(t, ?) = E{N}{}_{\mathrm{\infty }}\text{(t, t, ?)} = Σ}{}_{\mathrm{n=1}}{}^{\mathrm{\infty }}\text{n}{}^{\mathrm{t?2}}\text{P{| S}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{| > ?n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>2</mtext><mtext>t</mtext>}}\text{} → ∞}\text{as}\text{? → 0+}$, i.e., H(t, ?) goes to infinity much faster than G(t, ?) as ? → 0+ if 2 < t < 4, E(X₁) = 0, Var(X₁) > 0, and E(| X₁ |^t) < ∞. Our results provide us with a much better and deeper understanding of the tail probability of a distribution.     

Subnormal weighted translation semigroups

A weighted translation semigroup {S_t} on L²($\text{R}$₊) is defined by $\text{(S}{}_{\mathrm{t}}\text{f)(x) =}\text{(φ(x)}\text{φ(x ? t)}\text{)f(x ? t)}$ for x ? t and 0 otherwise, where φ is a continuous nonzero scalar-valued function on $\text{R}$₊. It is shown that {S_t} is subnormal if and only if φ² is the product of an exponential function and the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of an increasing function of total variation one. A necessary and sufficient condition for similarity of weighted translation semigroups is developed.     

Boundary layer methods for certain nonlinear singularly perturbed optimal control problems

We shall examine the control problem consisting of the system $\text{dx}\text{dt}\text{= f}{}_1\text{(x, z, u, t, ?)}$$\text{?(}\text{dz}\text{dt}\text{) = f}{}_2\text{(x, z, u, t, ?)}$ on the interval 0 ? t ? 1 with the initial values x(0, ?) and z(0, ?) prescribed, where the cost functional J(?) = π(x(1, ?), z(1, ?), ?) + ∝₀¹V(x(t, ?), z(t, ?), u(t, ?), t, ?) dt is to be minimized. We shall restrict attention to the special problem where the f_i's are linear in z and u, V is quadratic in z and independent of z when ? = 0, π and V are positive semidefinite functions of x and z, and V is a positive definite function of u. Under appropriate conditions, we shall obtain an asymptotic solution of the problem valid as the small parameter ? tends to zero. The techniques of constructing such asymptotic expansions will be stressed.     

Optimum designs when the observations are second-order processes

Let the process {Y(x,t) : t?T} be observable for each x in some compact set X. Assume that Y(x, t) = θ₀f₀(x)(t) + … + θ_kf_k(x)(t) + N(t) where f_i are continuous functions from X into the reproducing kernel Hilbert space H of the mean zero random process N. The optimum designs are characterized by an Elfving's theorem with $\text{R}$ the closed convex hull of the set {(φ, f(x))_H : 6φ 6_H ≤ 1, x?X}, where (·, ·)_H is the inner product on H. It is shown that if X is convex and f_i are linear the design points may be chosen from the extreme points of X. In some problems each linear functional c′θ can be optimally estimated by a design on one point x(c). These problems are completely characterized. An example is worked and some partial results on minimax designs are obtained.     

Attainable sets for linear stochastic control systems

Let x_t^u(w) be the solution process of the n-dimensional stochastic differential equation dx_t^u = [A(t)x_t^u + B(t) u(t)] dt + C(t) dW_t, where A(t), B(t), C(t) are matrix functions, W_t is a n-dimensional Brownian motion and u is an admissable control function. For fixed ? ? 0 and 1 ? δ ? 0, we say that x?Rⁿ is (?, δ) attainable if there exists an admissable control u such that P{x_t^u?S_?(x)} ? δ, where S_?(x) is the closed ?-ball in Rⁿ centered at x. The set of all (?, δ) attainable points is denoted by $\text{A}$(t). In this paper, we derive various properties of $\text{A}$(t) in terms of K(t), the attainable set of the deterministic control system $\text{x}\text{?}\text{= A(t)x + B(t)u}$. As well a stochastic bang-bang principle is established and three examples presented.     

Point processes of exits by bivariate Gaussian processes and extremal theory for the χ2-process and its concomitants

Let ζ(t), η(t) be continuously differentiable Gaussian processes with mean zero, unit variance, and common covariance function r(t), and such that ζ(t) and η(t) are independent for all t, and consider the movements of a particle with time-varying coordinates (ζ(t), η(t)). The time and location of the exists of the particle across a circle with radius u defines a point process in R³ with its points located on the cylinder {(t, u cos θ, u sin θ); t ≥ 0, 0 ≤ θ < 2π}. It is shown that if r(t) log t → 0 as t → ∞, the time and space-normalized point process of exits converges in distribution to a Poisson process on the unit cylinder. As a consequence one obtains the asymptotic distribution of the maximum of a χ²-process, χ²(t) = ζ²(t) + η²(t), P{sup_0≤t≤Tχ²(t) ≤ u²} → e^?τ if $\text{T(}\text{?r″(0)}\text{2π}\text{)}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{u ×}\text{exp}\text{(}\text{?u}{}^2\text{2}\text{) → τ}$ as T, u → ∞. Furthermore, it is shown that the points in R³ generated by the local ?-maxima of χ²(t) converges to a Poisson process in R³ with intensity measure (in cylindrical polar coordinates) (2πr²)^?1dtdθdr. As a consequence one obtains the asymptotic extremal distribution for any function g(ζ(t), η(t)) which is “almost quadratic” in the sense that $\text{g}{}^1\text{(r}\text{cos}\text{θ, r}\text{sin}\text{θ) =}\text{1}\text{2}\text{(r}{}^2\text{? g(r}\text{cos}\text{θ, r}\text{sin}\text{θ))}$ has a limit $\text{g}{}^1\text{(θ)}$ as r → ∞. Then if $\text{T(}\text{?r″(0)}\text{2π}\text{)}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{u}\text{exp}\text{(}\text{?u}{}^2\text{2}\text{) → τ}$ as T, u → ∞.