Empirical likelihood based confidence intervals for copulas

Copula as an effective way of modeling dependence has become more or less a standard tool in risk management, and a wide range of applications of copula models appear in the literature of economics, econometrics, insurance, finance, etc. How to estimate and test a copula plays an important role in practice, and both parametric and nonparametric methods have been studied in the literature. In this paper, we focus on interval estimation and propose an empirical likelihood based confidence interval for a copula. A simulation study and a real data analysis are conducted to compare the finite sample behavior of the proposed empirical likelihood method with the bootstrap method based on either the empirical copula estimator or the kernel smoothing copula estimator.     

Boundary kernels for adaptive density estimators on regions with irregular boundaries

In some applications of kernel density estimation the data may have a highly non-uniform distribution and be confined to a compact region. Standard fixed bandwidth density estimates can struggle to cope with the spatially variable smoothing requirements, and will be subject to excessive bias at the boundary of the region. While adaptive kernel estimators can address the first of these issues, the study of boundary kernel methods has been restricted to the fixed bandwidth context. We propose a new linear boundary kernel which reduces the asymptotic order of the bias of an adaptive density estimator at the boundary, and is simple to implement even on an irregular boundary. The properties of this adaptive boundary kernel are examined theoretically. In particular, we demonstrate that the asymptotic performance of the density estimator is maintained when the adaptive bandwidth is defined in terms of a pilot estimate rather than the true underlying density. We examine the performance for finite sample sizes numerically through analysis of simulated and real data sets.     

Smooth estimation of survival and density functions for a stationary associated process using Poisson weights

Let {X_n,n≥1} be a sequence of stationary non-negative associated random variables with common marginal density f(x). Here we use the empirical survival function as studied in Bagai and Prakasa Rao (1991) and apply the smoothing technique proposed by Gawronski (1980) (see also Chaubey and Sen, 1996) in proposing a smooth estimator of the density function f and that of the corresponding survival function. Some asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators, similar to those obtained in Chaubey and Sen (1996) for the i.i.d. case, are derived. A simulation study has been carried out to compare the new estimator to the kernel estimator of a density function given in Bagai and Prakasa Rao (1996) and the estimator in Buch-Larsen et al. (2005).     

Some asymptotics for multimodality tests based on kernel density estimates

Summary A test due to B.W. Silverman for modality of a probability density is based on counting modes of a kernel density estimator, and the idea of critical smoothing. An asymptotic formula is given for the expected number of modes. This, together with other methods, establishes the rate of convergence of the critically smoothed bandwidth. These ideas are extended to provide insight concerning the behaviour of the test based on bootstrap critical values.     

Wavelet estimation of conditional density with truncated, censored and dependent data

In this paper we define a new nonlinear wavelet-based estimator of conditional density function for a random left truncation and right censoring model. We provide an asymptotic expression for the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of the estimator. It is assumed that the lifetime observations form a stationary α-mixing sequence. Unlike for kernel estimators, the MISE expression of the wavelet-based estimators is not affected by the presence of discontinuities in the curves. Also, asymptotic normality of the estimator is established.     

On a mapping approach to investigating the bootstrap accuracy

Summary. A simple mapping approach is proposed to study the bootstrap accuracy in a rather general setting. It is demonstrated that the bootstrap accuracy can be obtained through this method for a broad class of statistics to which the commonly used Edgeworth expansion approach may not be successfully applied. We then consider some examples to illustrate how this approach may be used to find the bootstrap accuracy and show the advantage of the bootstrap approximation over the Gaussian approximation. For the multivariate Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic, we show the error of bootstrap approximation is as small as that of the Gaussian approximation. For the multivariate kernel type density estimate, we obtain an order of the bootstrap error which is smaller than the order of the error of the Gaussian approximation given in Rio (1994). We also consider an application of the bootstrap accuracy for empirical process to that for the copula process. Received: 23 June 1995 / In revised form: 18 June 1996     

A Berry-Esseen type bound in kernel density estimation for strong mixing censored samples

In this paper, we discuss the estimation of a density function based on censored data by the kernel smoothing method when the survival and the censoring times form a stationary α-mixing sequence. A Berry-Esseen type bound is derived for the kernel density estimator at a fixed point x. For practical purposes, a randomly weighted estimator of the density function is also constructed and investigated.     

A multivariate version of Hoeffding’s Phi-Square

A multivariate measure of association is proposed, which extends the bivariate copula-based measure Phi-Square introduced by Hoeffding [22]. We discuss its analytical properties and calculate its explicit value for some copulas of simple form; a simulation procedure to approximate its value is provided otherwise. A nonparametric estimator for multivariate Phi-Square is derived and its asymptotic behavior is established based on the weak convergence of the empirical copula process both in the case of independent observations and dependent observations from strictly stationary strong mixing sequences. The asymptotic variance of the estimator can be estimated by means of nonparametric bootstrap methods. For illustration, the theoretical results are applied to financial asset return data.     

On kernel method for sliced average variance estimation

In this paper, we use the kernel method to estimate sliced average variance estimation (SAVE) and prove that this estimator is both asymptotically normal and root n consistent. We use this kernel estimator to provide more insight about the differences between slicing estimation and other sophisticated local smoothing methods. Finally, we suggest a Bayes information criterion (BIC) to estimate the dimensionality of SAVE. Examples and real data are presented for illustrating our method.     

On testing equality of pairwise rank correlations in a multivariate random vector

Spearman’s rank-correlation coefficient (also called Spearman’s rho) represents one of the best-known measures to quantify the degree of dependence between two random variables. As a copula-based dependence measure, it is invariant with respect to the distribution’s univariate marginal distribution functions. In this paper, we consider statistical tests for the hypothesis that all pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector are equal. The tests are nonparametric and their asymptotic distributions are derived based on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical copula process. Only weak assumptions on the distribution function, such as continuity of the marginal distributions and continuous partial differentiability of the copula, are required for obtaining the results. A nonparametric bootstrap method is suggested for either estimating unknown parameters of the test statistics or for determining the associated critical values. We present a simulation study in order to investigate the power of the proposed tests. The results are compared to a classical parametric test for equal pairwise Pearson’s correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector. The general setting also allows the derivation of a test for stochastic independence based on Spearman’s rho.     

Asymptotic normality and Berry-Esseen results for conditional density estimator with censored and dependent data

In this paper we derive the asymptotic normality and a Berry-Esseen type bound for the kernel conditional density estimator proposed in Ould-Saïd and Cai (2005) [26] when the censored observations with multivariate covariates form a stationary α-mixing sequence.     

Robust regression function estimation

A robust estimator of the regression function is proposed combining kernel methods as introduced for density estimation and robust location estimation techniques. Weak and strong consistency and asymptotic normality are shown under mild conditions on the kernel sequence. The asymptotic variance is a product from a factor depending only on the kernel and a factor similar to the asymptotic variance in robust estimation of location. The estimation is minimax robust in the sense of Huber (1964). Robust estimation of a location parameter. Ann. Math. Statist.33 73–101.     

A bias corrected nonparametric regression estimator

In this article, we propose a new method of bias reduction in nonparametric regression estimation. The proposed new estimator has asymptotic bias order h⁴, where h is a smoothing parameter, in contrast to the usual bias order h² for the local linear regression. In addition, the proposed estimator has the same order of the asymptotic variance as the local linear regression. Our proposed method is closely related to the bias reduction method for kernel density estimation proposed by Chung and Lindsay (2011). However, our method is not a direct extension of their density estimate, but a totally new one based on the bias cancelation result of their proof.     

Scan clustering: A false discovery approach

We present a method that scans a random field for localized clusters while controlling the fraction of false discoveries. We use a kernel density estimator as the test statistic and adjust for the bias in this estimator by a method we introduce in this paper. We also show how to combine information across multiple bandwidths while maintaining false discovery control.     

Robust estimation in a nonlinear cointegration model

This paper considers the nonparametric M-estimator in a nonlinear cointegration type model. The local time density argument, which was developed by Phillips and Park (1998) [6] and Wang and Phillips (2009) [9], is applied to establish the asymptotic theory for the nonparametric M-estimator. The weak consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are established under mild conditions. Meanwhile, the asymptotic distribution of the local least squares estimator and the local least absolute distance estimator can be obtained as applications of our main results. Furthermore, an iterated procedure for obtaining the nonparametric M-estimator and a cross-validation bandwidth selection method are discussed, and some numerical examples are provided to show that the proposed methods perform well in the finite sample case.     

Superefficient estimation of the marginals by exploiting knowledge on the copula

We consider the problem of estimating the marginals in the case where there is knowledge on the copula. If the copula is smooth, it is known that it is possible to improve on the empirical distribution functions: optimal estimators still have a rate of convergence n^−1/2, but a smaller asymptotic variance. In this paper we show that for non-smooth copulas it is sometimes possible to construct superefficient estimators of the marginals: we construct both a copula and, exploiting the information our copula provides, estimators of the marginals with the rate of convergence logn/n.     

Model checking in errors-in-variables regression

This paper discusses a class of minimum distance tests for fitting a parametric regression model to a class of regression functions in the errors-in-variables model. These tests are based on certain minimized distances between a nonparametric regression function estimator and a deconvolution kernel estimator of the conditional expectation of the parametric model being fitted. The paper establishes the asymptotic normality of the proposed test statistics under the null hypothesis and that of the corresponding minimum distance estimators. We also prove the consistency of the proposed tests against a fixed alternative and obtain the asymptotic distributions for general local alternatives. Simulation studies show that the testing procedures are quite satisfactory in the preservation of the finite sample level and in terms of a power comparison.     

Shrinkage estimation in the frequency domain of multivariate time series

In this paper on developing shrinkage for spectral analysis of multivariate time series of high dimensionality, we propose a new nonparametric estimator of the spectral matrix with two appealing properties. First, compared to the traditional smoothed periodogram our shrinkage estimator has a smaller L₂ risk. Second, the proposed shrinkage estimator is numerically more stable due to a smaller condition number. We use the concept of “Kolmogorov” asymptotics where simultaneously the sample size and the dimensionality tend to infinity, to show that the smoothed periodogram is not consistent and to derive the asymptotic properties of our regularized estimator. This estimator is shown to have asymptotically minimal risk among all linear combinations of the identity and the averaged periodogram matrix. Compared to existing work on shrinkage in the time domain, our results show that in the frequency domain it is necessary to take the size of the smoothing span as “effective sample size” into account. Furthermore, we perform extensive Monte Carlo studies showing the overwhelming gain in terms of lower L₂ risk of our shrinkage estimator, even in situations of oversmoothing the periodogram by using a large smoothing span.     

Kernel adjusted density estimation

We propose and study a kernel estimator of a density in which the kernel is adapted to the data but not fixed. The smoothing procedure is followed by a location-scale transformation to reduce bias and variance. The new method naturally leads to an adaptive choice of the smoothing parameters which avoids asymptotic expansions.     

Combining conditional and unconditional moment restrictions with missing responses

Many statistical models, e.g. regression models, can be viewed as conditional moment restrictions when distributional assumptions on the error term are not assumed. For such models, several estimators that achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound have been proposed. However, in many studies, auxiliary information is available as unconditional moment restrictions. Meanwhile, we also consider the presence of missing responses. We propose the combined empirical likelihood (CEL) estimator to incorporate such auxiliary information to improve the estimation efficiency of the conditional moment restriction models. We show that, when assuming responses are strongly ignorable missing at random, the CEL estimator achieves better efficiency than the previous estimators due to utilization of the auxiliary information. Based on the asymptotic property of the CEL estimator, we also develop Wilks’ type tests and corresponding confidence regions for the model parameter and the mean response. Since kernel smoothing is used, the CEL method may have difficulty for problems with high dimensional covariates. In such situations, we propose an instrumental variable-based empirical likelihood (IVEL) method to handle this problem. The merit of the CEL and IVEL are further illustrated through simulation studies.