A statistical model for random rotations

This paper studies the properties of the Cayley distributions, a new family of models for random p×p rotations. This class of distributions is related to the Cayley transform that maps a p(p-1)/2×1 vector s into SO(p), the space of p×p rotation matrices. First an expression for the uniform measure on SO(p) is derived using the Cayley transform, then the Cayley density for random rotations is investigated. A closed-form expression is derived for its normalizing constant, a simple simulation algorithm is proposed, and moments are derived. The efficiencies of moment estimators of the parameters of the new model are also calculated. A Monte Carlo investigation of tests and of confidence regions for the parameters of the new density is briefly summarized. A numerical example is presented.     

Local likelihood estimation for nonstationary random fields

We develop a weighted local likelihood estimate for the parameters that govern the local spatial dependency of a locally stationary random field. The advantage of this local likelihood estimate is that it smoothly downweights the influence of faraway observations, works for irregular sampling locations, and when designed appropriately, can trade bias and variance for reducing estimation error. This paper starts with an exposition of our technique on the problem of estimating an unknown positive function when multiplied by a stationary random field. This example gives concrete evidence of the benefits of our local likelihood as compared to unweighted local likelihoods. We then discuss the difficult problem of estimating a bandwidth parameter that controls the amount of influence from distant observations. Finally we present a simulation experiment for estimating the local smoothness of a local Matérn random field when observing the field at random sampling locations in [0,1]². The local Matérn is a fully nonstationary random field, has a closed form covariance, can attain any degree of differentiability or Hölder smoothness and behaves locally like a stationary Matérn. We include an appendix that proves the positive definiteness of this covariance function.     

Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data

This article studies the maximum likelihood inference on a class of Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data. Degradation data are special case of functional data with monotone trend. The setting for degradation data is one on which n independent subjects, each with a Wiener process with random drift and diffusion parameters, are observed at possible different times. Unit-to-unit variability is incorporated into the model by these random effects. EM algorithm is used to obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters. Asymptotic properties such as consistency and convergence rate are established. Bootstrap method is used for assessing the uncertainties of the estimators. Simulations are used to validate the method. The model is fitted to bridge beam data and corresponding goodness-of-fit tests are carried out. Failure time distributions in terms of degradation level passages are calculated and illustrated.     

Stein's Lemma for elliptical random vectors

For the family of multivariate normal distribution functions, Stein's Lemma presents a useful tool for calculating covariances between functions of the component random variables. Motivated by applications to corporate finance, we prove a generalization of Stein's Lemma to the family of elliptical distributions.     

Some bounds for partially balanced block designs

Bounds on eigenvalues of theC-matrix for a partially balanced block (PBB) design are given together with some bounds on the number of blocks. Furthermore, a certain equiblock-sized PBB design is characterized. These results contain, as special cases, the known results for variance-balanced block designs and so on.     

Nonparametric estimation for stochastic differential equations with random effects

We consider N$N$ independent stochastic processes (_Xj(t),t∈[0,T])$(X_j\left(t\right),t\in [0,T])$, j=1,…,N$j=1,\dots ,N$, defined by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation with coefficients depending on a random variable _?j${?}_j$ and study the nonparametric estimation of the density of the random effect _?j${?}_j$ in two kinds of mixed models. A multiplicative random effect and an additive random effect are successively considered. In each case, we build kernel and deconvolution estimators and study their L²$L^2$-risk. Asymptotic properties are evaluated as N$N$ tends to infinity for fixed T$T$ or for T=T(N)$T=T\left(N\right)$ tending to infinity with N$N$. For T(N)=N²$T\left(N\right)=N^2$, adaptive estimators are built. Estimators are implemented on simulated data for several examples.     

A nonparametric regression cross spectrum for multivariate time series

We consider dependence structures in multivariate time series that are characterized by deterministic trends. Results from spectral analysis for stationary processes are extended to deterministic trend functions. A regression cross covariance and spectrum are defined. Estimation of these quantities is based on wavelet thresholding. The method is illustrated by a simulated example and a three-dimensional time series consisting of ECG, blood pressure and cardiac stroke volume measurements.     

An extension of Fisher's discriminant analysis for stochastic processes

In this paper we present a general notion of Fisher's linear discriminant analysis that extends the classical multivariate concept to situations that allow for function-valued random elements. The development uses a bijective mapping that connects a second order process to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space generated by its within class covariance kernel. This approach provides a seamless transition between Fisher's original development and infinite dimensional settings that lends itself well to computation via smoothing and regularization. Simulation results and real data examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.     

The Tukey and the random Tukey depths characterize discrete distributions

Through this paper it is shown that if the Tukey depths of two probabilities, P and Q, coincide and one of those distributions is discrete, then P=Q. The same is proved if the random Tukey depths coincide.     

Representations of best linear unbiased estimators in the Gauss-Markoff model with a singular dispersion matrix

In the general Gauss-Markoff model (Y, Xβ, σ²V), when V is singular, there exist linear functions of Y which vanish with probability 1 imposing some restrictions on Y as well as on the unknown β. In all earlier work on linear estimation, representations of best-linear unbiased estimators (BLUE's) are obtained under the assumption: “L′Y is unbiased for Xβ ? L′X = X.” Such a condition is not, however, necessary. The present paper provides all possible representations of the BLUE's some of which violate the condition L′X = X. Representations of X for given classes of BLUE's are also obtained.     

On the distribution of the (un)bounded sum of random variables

We propose a general treatment of random variables aggregation accounting for the dependence among variables and bounded or unbounded support of their sum. The approach is based on the extension to the concept of convolution to dependent variables, involving copula functions. We show that some classes of copula functions (such as Marshall-Olkin and elliptical) cannot be used to represent the dependence structure of two variables whose sum is bounded, while Archimedean copulas can be applied only if the generator becomes linear beyond some point. As for the application, we study the problem of capital allocation between risks when the sum of losses is bounded.     

Rank estimation in reduced-rank regression

Reduced rank regression assumes that the coefficient matrix in a multivariate regression model is not of full rank. The unknown rank is traditionally estimated under the assumption of normal responses. We derive an asymptotic test for the rank that only requires the response vector have finite second moments. The test is extended to the nonconstant covariance case. Linear combinations of the components of the predictor vector that are estimated to be significant for modelling the responses are obtained.     

Optimal adaptive generalized Pólya urn design for multi-arm clinical trials

A class of optimal adaptive multi-arm clinical trial designs is proposed based on an extended generalized Pólya urn (GPU) model. The design is applicable to both the qualitative and quantitative responses and achieves, asymptotically, some pre-specified optimality criterion. Such criterion is specified by a functional of the response distributions and is implemented through the relationship between the design matrix and its first eigenvector. The asymptotic properties of the design are studied using the existing methods on GPU. Some examples for commonly used clinical designs are given as illustration.     

Maximum likelihood estimator consistency for a ballistic random walk in a parametric random environment

We consider a one dimensional ballistic random walk evolving in an i.i.d. parametric random environment. We provide a maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the parameters based on a single observation of the path till the time it reaches a distant site, and prove that the estimator is consistent as the distant site tends to infinity. Our main tool consists in using the link between random walks and branching processes in random environments and explicitly characterising the limiting distribution of the process that arises. We also explore the numerical performance of our estimation procedure.     

Measures of influence for the functional linear model with scalar response

This paper studies how to identify influential observations in the functional linear model in which the predictor is functional and the response is scalar. Measurement of the effects of a single observation on estimation and prediction when the model is estimated by the principal components method is undertaken. For that, three statistics are introduced for measuring the influence of each observation on estimation and prediction of the functional linear model with scalar response that are generalizations of the measures proposed for the standard regression model by [D.R. Cook, Detection of influential observations in linear regression, Technometrics 19 (1977) 15-18; D. Peña, A new statistic for influence in linear regression, Technometrics 47 (2005) 1-12] respectively. A smoothed bootstrap method is proposed to estimate the quantiles of the influence measures, which allows us to point out which observations have the larger influence on estimation and prediction. The behavior of the three statistics and the quantile estimation bootstrap based method is analyzed via a simulation study. Finally, the practical use of the proposed statistics is illustrated by the analysis of a real data example, which show that the proposed measures are useful for detecting heterogeneity in the functional linear model with scalar response.     

Tensorial products of functional ARMA processes

We study the structure of tensorial products for the autoregressive and moving average processes (X_n), with values in a Hilbert space H and with innovations that are martingale differences.The obtained models are ARMA(H⊗H) processes, possibly non standard. We provide criteria for the standardness of these models, we specify the results in the real case, give some examples and consider some applications.     

An Upper Bound for the Cardinality of an <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis>-Distance Set in Euclidean Space

In this paper we show that if X is an s-distance set in ^m and X is on p concentric spheres then Moreover if X is antipodal, then .     

Positivity for Gaussian graphical models

Gaussian graphical models are parametric statistical models for jointly normal random variables whose dependence structure is determined by a graph. In previous work, we introduced trek separation, which gives a necessary and sufficient condition in terms of the graph for when a subdeterminant is zero for all covariance matrices that belong to the Gaussian graphical model. Here we extend this result to give explicit cancellation-free formulas for the expansions of non-zero subdeterminants.     

Adaptive estimation of the transition density of a particular hidden Markov chain

We study the following model of hidden Markov chain: with (X_i) a real-valued positive recurrent and stationary Markov chain, and (?_i)_1?i?n+1 a noise independent of the sequence (X_i) having a known distribution. We present an adaptive estimator of the transition density based on the quotient of a deconvolution estimator of the density of X_i and an estimator of the density of (X_i,X_i+1). These estimators are obtained by contrast minimization and model selection. We evaluate the L² risk and its rate of convergence for ordinary smooth and supersmooth noise with regard to ordinary smooth and supersmooth chains. Some examples are also detailed.     

Asymptotic statistical equivalence for scalar ergodic diffusions

For scalar diffusion models with unknown drift function asymptotic equivalence in the sense of Le Cam's deficiency between statistical experiments is considered under long-time asymptotics. A local asymptotic equivalence result is established with an accompanying sequence of simple Gaussian shift experiments. Corresponding globally asymptotically equivalent experiments are obtained as compound experiments. The results are extended in several directions including time discretisation. An explicit transformation of decision functions from the Gaussian to the diffusion experiment is constructed. The authors acknowledge the financial support provided through the European Community's Human Potential Programme under contract HPRN-CT-2000-00100, DYNSTOCH