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Poisson过程作为更新过程的若干新的特征刻画 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
成世学 《高校应用数学学报(A辑)》1998,13(3):289-294
本文将给出Poisson过程作为更新过程的一系列新的特征刻画.这些刻画是借助于更新过程中所有关键量的条件概率分布或条件期望来表述的.所给的条件是至任一指定时刻发生的抵达敷为已知. 相似文献
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考虑索赔到达具有相依性的一类双险种风险模型,其中第一类险种的索赔计数过程为Poisson过程,第二类险种的索赔计数过程为其p-稀疏过程与广义Erlang(2)过程的和,利用更新论证得到了此风险模型的罚金折现期望函数满足的微积分方程及其Laplace变换的表达式.并就索赔额均服从指数分布的情形,给出了罚金函数及破产概率的精确表达式. 相似文献
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本文考虑了具有可利用服务员的M/G/1有有限容量的排队模型.当工作量超过k(k是常数或者随机变量),可利用服务员参与工作,一直到工作量少于或等于k.可利用服务员的速率依赖于目前工作量.应用Level-crossing方法,获得了工作量的平稳分布.应用Kolmogorov向后微分方程方法,构造更新方程以获得忙期的Laplace变换. 相似文献
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In this paper,we consider the dividend problem in a two-state Markov-modulated dual risk model,in which the gain arrivals,gain sizes and expenses are influenced by a Markov process.A system of integrodifferential equations for the expected value of the discounted dividends until ruin is derived.In the case of exponential gain sizes,the equations are solved and the best barrier is obtained via numerical example.Finally,using numerical example,we compare the best barrier and the expected discounted dividends in the two-state Markov-modulated dual risk model with those in an associated averaged compound Poisson risk model.Numerical results suggest that one could use the results of the associated averaged compound Poisson risk model to approximate those for the two-state Markov-modulated dual risk model. 相似文献
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Zvetan G. Ignatov 《Stochastics An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes》2016,88(8):1240-1260
We consider a general insurance risk model with extended flexibility under which claims arrive according to a point process with independent increments, their amounts may have any joint distribution and the premium income is accumulated following any non-decreasing, possibly discontinuous, real valued function. Point processes with independent increments are in general non-stationary, allowing for an arbitrary (possibly discontinuous) claim arrival cumulative intensity function which is appealing for insurance applications. Under these general assumptions, we derive a closed form expression for the joint distribution of the time to ruin and the deficit at ruin, which is remarkable, since as we show, it involves a new interesting class of what we call Appell–Hessenberg type functions. The latter are shown to coincide with the classical Appell polynomials in the Poisson case and to yield a new class of the so called Appell–Hessenberg factorial polynomials in the case of negative binomial claim arrivals. Corollaries of our main result generalize previous ruin formulas e.g. those obtained for the case of stationary Poisson claim arrivals. 相似文献
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We propose a queueing network model which can be used for the integration of the mobility and teletraffic aspects that are characteristic of wireless networks. In the general case, the model is an open network of infinite server queues where customers arrive according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The movement of a customer in the network is described by a Markov renewal process. Moreover, customers have attributes, such as a teletraffic state, that are driven by continuous time Markov chains and, therefore, change as they move through the network. We investigate the transient and limit number of customers in disjoint sets of nodes and attributes. These turn out to be independent Poisson random variables. We also calculate the covariances of the number of customers in two sets of nodes and attributes at different time epochs. Moreover, we conclude that the arrival process per attribute to a node is the sum of independent Poisson cluster processes and derive its univariate probability generating function. In addition, the arrival process to an outside node of the network is a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We illustrate the applications of the queueing network model and the results derived in a particular wireless network. 相似文献
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For the classical risk model with Poisson arrivals, we study the (bivariate) tail of the joint distribution of the surplus prior to and at ruin. We obtain some exact expressions and new bounds for this tail, and we suggest three numerical methods that may yield upper and lower bounds for it. As a by-product of the analysis, we obtain new upper and lower bounds for the probability and severity of ruin. Many of the bounds in the present paper improve and generalise corresponding bounds that have appeared earlier. For the numerical bounds, their performance is also compared against bounds available in the literature. 相似文献
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Attahiru Sule Alfa Elias Yannopoulos 《The Journal of the Operational Research Society》1993,44(3):271-278
We present a class of bulk server queueing models encountered in material handling and public transportation systems. Customers arrive according to the Poisson process and server visits form a Markov renewal process. Results for the queue length at steady state are obtained and a numerical example using observed data is presented. 相似文献
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Wen-Hui Zhou 《Applied mathematics and computation》2005,170(2):1349-1355
In this paper, we consider a discrete-time GI/G/1 queueing model with negative arrivals. By deriving the probability generating function of actual service time of ordinary customers, we reduced the analysis to an equivalent discrete-time GI/G/1 queueing model without negative arrival, and obtained the probability generating function of buffer contents and random customer delay. 相似文献
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On the decomposition of the absolute ruin probability in a perturbed compound Poisson surplus process with debit interest 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We consider a compound Poisson surplus process perturbed by diffusion with debit interest. When the surplus is below zero or the company is on deficit, the company is allowed to borrow money at a debit interest rate to continue its business as long as its debt is at a reasonable level. When the surplus of a company is below a certain critical level, the company is no longer profitable, we say that absolute ruin occurs at this situation. In this risk model, absolute ruin may be caused by a claim or by oscillation. Thus, the absolute ruin probability in the model is decomposed as the sum of two absolute ruin probabilities, where one is the probability that absolute ruin is caused by a claim and the other is the probability that absolute ruin is caused by oscillation. In this paper, we first give the integro-differential equations satisfied by the absolute ruin probabilities and then derive the defective renewal equations for the absolute ruin probabilities. Using these defective renewal equations, we derive the asymptotical forms of the absolute ruin probabilities when the distributions of claim sizes are heavy-tailed and light-tailed. Finally, we derive explicit expressions for the absolute ruin probabilities when claim sizes are exponentially distributed. 相似文献
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We derive upper and lower bounds for the ruin probability over infinite time in the classical actuarial risk model (usual independence and equidistribution assumptions; the claim-number process is Poisson). Our starting point is the renewal equation for the ruin probability, but no renewal theory is used, except for the elementary facts proved in the note. Some bounds allow a very simple new proof of an asymptotic result akin to heavy-tailed claim-size distributions. 相似文献
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Calls arrive at a switch, where they are assigned to any one of the available idle outgoing links. A call is blocked if all the links are busy. A call assigned to an idle link may be immediately lost with a probability which depends on the link. For exponential holding times and an arbitrary arrival process we show that the conditional distribution of the time to reach the blocked state from any state, given the sequence of arrivals, is independent of the policy used to route the calls. Thus the law of overflow traffic is independent of the assignment policy. An explicit formula for the stationary probability that an arriving call sees the node blocked is given for Poisson arrivals. We also give a simple asymptotic formula in this case.Work on this paper was done while the author was at Bellcore and at Berkeley. 相似文献
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We consider that the reserve of an insurance company follows a renewal risk process with interest and dividend. For this risk process, we derive integral equations and exact infinite series expressions for the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function. Then we give lower and upper bounds for the ruin probability. Finally, we present exact expressions for the ruin probability in a special case of renewal risk processes. 相似文献
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A recursive method to the optimal control of an M/G/1 queueing system with finite capacity and infinite capacity 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
We study a single removable server in an infinite and a finite queueing systems with Poisson arrivals and general distribution service times. The server may be turned on at arrival epochs or off at service completion epochs. We present a recursive method, using the supplementary variable technique and treating the supplementary variable as the remaining service time, to obtain the steady state probability distribution of the number of customers in a finite system. The method is illustrated analytically for three different service time distributions: exponential, 3-stage Erlang, and deterministic. Cost models for infinite and finite queueing systems are respectively developed to determine the optimal operating policy at minimum cost. 相似文献
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We consider that the reserve of an insurance company follows a renewal risk process with interest and dividend. For this risk process, we derive integral equations and exact infinite series expressions for the Cerber-Shiu discounted penalty function. Then we give lower and upper bounds for the ruin probability. Finally, we present exact expressions for the ruin probability in a special case of renewal risk processes. 相似文献