Estimating the parameters of Weibull distribution and the acceleration factor from hybrid partially accelerated life test

This article considers the estimation of parameters of Weibull distribution based on hybrid censored data. The parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method under step-stress partially accelerated test model. The maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the unknown parameters are obtained by Newton–Raphson algorithm. Also, the approximate Fisher information matrix is obtained for constructing asymptotic confidence bounds for the model parameters. The biases and mean square errors of the maximum likelihood estimators are computed to assess their performances through a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

Exact inference for joint Type-I hybrid censoring model with exponential competing risks data

Assuming that the failure time under different risk factors follows the independent exponential distribution, a joint model under Type-I hybrid censoring is addressed in detail. Based on the Maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of unknown parameters, we obtain exact distributions of MLEs by using the moment generating function (MGF). Confidence intervals (CIs) of parameters are constructed through both the exact method and the parametric bootstrap method. Then we compare the performances of different methods by Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the validity of the proposed models and methods are demonstrated by a numerical example.     

Parameter estimation for a two-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution

A two-parameter distribution was revisited by Chen (2000) [7]. This distribution can have a bathtub-shaped or increasing failure rate function which enables it to fit real lifetime data sets. Maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates of the two unknown parameters are discussed in this paper. It is assumed in the Bayes case that the unknown parameters have gamma priors. Explicit forms of Bayes estimators cannot be obtained. Different approximations are used to establish point estimates and two sided Bayesian probability intervals for the parameters. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to the comparison between the maximum likelihood estimates and the approximate Bayes estimates obtained under non-informative prior assumptions. Analysis of a real data set is also been presented for illustrative purposes.     

Inference for ordered parameters in multinomial distributions

This paper discusses inference for ordered parameters of multinomial distributions. We first show that the asymptotic distributions of their maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are not always normal and the bootstrap distribution estimators of the MLEs can be inconsistent. Then a class of weighted sum estimators (WSEs) of the ordered parameters is proposed. Properties of the WSEs are studied, including their asymptotic normality. Based on those results, large sample inferences for smooth functions of the ordered parameters can be made. Especially, the confidence intervals of the maximum cell probabilities are constructed. Simulation results indicate that this interval estimation performs much better than the bootstrap approaches in the literature. Finally, the above results for ordered parameters of multinomial distributions are extended to more general distribution models. This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10371126)     

Asymptotic properties of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters in item response theory

Asymptotic cumulants of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters using marginal likelihood in item response theory are derived up to the fourth order with added higher-order asymptotic variances under possible model misspecification. Among them, only the first asymptotic cumulant and the higher-order asymptotic variance for an estimator are different from those by maximum likelihood. Corresponding results for studentized Bayes estimators and asymptotically bias-corrected ones are also obtained. It was found that all the asymptotic cumulants of the bias-corrected Bayes estimator up to the fourth order and the higher-order asymptotic variance are identical to those by maximum likelihood with bias correction. Numerical illustrations are given with simulations in the case when the 2-parameter logistic model holds. In the numerical illustrations, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators are used, where the same independent log-normal priors are employed for discriminant parameters and the hierarchical model is adopted for the prior of difficulty parameters.     

Inference for a progressive stress model from Weibull distribution under progressive type-II censoring

Based on progressively type-II censored samples, this paper considers progressive stress accelerated life tests when the lifetime of an item under use condition follows the Weibull distribution with a scale parameter satisfying the inverse power law. It is assumed that the progressive stress is directly proportional to time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Point estimation of the model parameters is obtained graphically by using Weibull probability paper plot that serves as a tool for model identification and also by using the maximum likelihood method. Interval estimation is performed by finding approximate confidence intervals (CIs) for the parameters as well as the studentized-t and percentile bootstrap CIs. Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to investigate the precision of the estimates and compare the performance of CIs obtained. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate our results.     

Statistical Analysis in Constant-Stress Accelerated Life Tests for Generalized Exponential Distribution Based on Adaptive Type-II Progressive Hybrid Censored Data

Based on adaptive type-II progressive hybrid censored data statistical analysis for constant-stress accelerated life test (CS-ALT) with products' lifetime following two-parameter generalized exponential (GE) distribution is investigated. The estimates of the unknown parameters and the reliability function are obtained through a new method combining the EM algorithm and the least square method. The observed Fisher information matrix is achieved with missing information principle, and the asymptotic unbiased estimate (AUE) of the scale parameter is also obtained. Confidence intervals (CIs) for the parameters are derived using asymptotic normality of the estimators and the percentile bootstrap (Boot-p) method. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to investigate the precision of the point estimates and interval estimates, respectively. It is shown that the AUE of the scale parameter is better than the corresponding two-step estimation, and the Boot-p CIs are more accurate than the corresponding asymptotic CIs.     

Exact inference for a simple step-stress model from the exponential distribution under time constraint

In reliability and life-testing experiments, the researcher is often interested in the effects of extreme or varying stress factors such as temperature, voltage and load on the lifetimes of experimental units. Step-stress test, which is a special class of accelerated life-tests, allows the experimenter to increase the stress levels at fixed times during the experiment in order to obtain information on the parameters of the life distributions more quickly than under normal operating conditions. In this paper, we consider the simple step-stress model from the exponential distribution when there is time constraint on the duration of the experiment. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the parameters assuming a cumulative exposure model with lifetimes being exponentially distributed. The exact distributions of the MLEs of parameters are obtained through the use of conditional moment generating functions. We also derive confidence intervals for the parameters using these exact distributions, asymptotic distributions of the MLEs and the parametric bootstrap methods, and assess their performance through a Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we present two examples to illustrate all the methods of inference discussed here.     

带Gauss型误差的GMANOVA-MANOVA模型中未知参数的精确置信域

对于带Gauss型误差的GMANOVA-MANOVA模型,在均匀协方差结构下,求出了其中未知参数的极大似然估计及其均值和方差,并依据极大似然估计构造了未知参数的精确置信域.     

Statistical Inference for the Location and Scale Parameters of the Skew Normal Distribution

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the location and scale parameters of the skew normal distribution introduced by Azzalini. For this distribution, the classic maximum likelihood estimators(MLEs) do not take explicit forms. We approximate the likelihood equations and derive explicit estimators of the parameters. The bias and variance of the estimators are investigated and Monte Carlo simulation studies show that the estimators are as efficient as the classic MLEs. We demonstrate that the probability coverages of the pivotal quantities (for location and scale parameters) based on asymptotic normality are unsatisfactory, especially when the sample size is small. The use of unconditional simulated percentage points of these quantities is suggested. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the proposed inference methods.     

Estimations from the exponentiated rayleigh distribution based on generalized Type-II hybrid censored data

In this article, unknown parameters of exponentiated Rayleigh distribution based on generalized Type II Hybrid censored data, survival function, failure rate function and coefficient of variation are derived by applying the maximum likelihood, Bayes and percentile bootstrap methods. Approximate confidence intervals for the unknown parameters, survival function, failure rate function and coefficient of variation are obtained. We study Bayes estimates under gamma priors distributions depending on symmetric and asymmetric loss functions via the Gibbs within Metropolis-Hasting samplers procedure. Finally, the proposed methods can be understood through illustrating the results of the real data analysis.     

Efficient ML Estimation of the Multivariate Normal Distribution from Incomplete Data

It is well known that the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of a multivariate normal distribution from incomplete data with a monotone pattern have closed-form expressions and that the MLEs from incomplete data with a general missing-data pattern can be obtained using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. This article gives closed-form expressions, analogous to the extension of the Bartlett decomposition, for both the MLEs of the parameters and the associated Fisher information matrix from incomplete data with a monotone missing-data pattern. For MLEs of the parameters from incomplete data with a general missing-data pattern, we implement EM and Expectation-Constrained-Maximization-Either (ECME), by augmenting the observed data into a complete monotone sample. We also provide a numerical example, which shows that the monotone EM (MEM) and monotone ECME (MECME) algorithms converge much faster than the EM algorithm.     

优良抽样设计下Logistic分布中参数的极大似然估计

当研究目标的实际测量具有不可修复的破坏性或耗资巨大时,有效的抽样设计将是一项重要的研究课题.在统计推断方面,排序集抽样(RSS)被视为一种比简单随机抽样(SRS)更为有效的收集数据的方式.动态极值RSS (MERSS)是一种修正的RSS.文章在SRS和MERSS下研究了Logistic分布中参数的极大似然估计(MLEs).在这两种抽样下证明了该分布中位置参数和刻度参数的MLEs的存在性和唯一性,并计算了所含参数的Fisher信息量和Fisher信息矩阵.比较了这两种抽样下对应估计的渐近效率.数值结果表明MERSS下的MLEs一致优于SRS下的MLEs.     

区间删失下恒定应力部分加速寿命试验的统计分析（英文）

In this paper, a statistical analysis method is proposed to research life characteristics of products based on the partially accelerated life test. We discuss the statistical analysis for constant-stress partially accelerated life tests with Lomax distribution based on interval censored samples. The EM algorithm is used to obtain the maximum likelihood estimations(MLEs) and interval estimations for the shape parameter and acceleration factor.The average relative errors(AREs), mean square errors(MSEs), the confidence intervals for the parameters, and the influence of the sample size are discussed. The results show that the AREs and MSEs of the MLEs decrease with the increase of sample size. Finally, a simulation sample is used to estimate the reliability under different stress levels.     

��I�ͻ�Ͻ�β��ָ��——�������ֲ�����ʧЧģ�͵�ͳ�Ʒ���

In this paper, we investigate a competing risks model based on exponentiated Weibull distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme. To estimate the unknown parameters and reliability function, the maximum likelihood estimators and asymptotic confidence intervals are derived. Since Bayesian posterior density functions cannot be given in closed forms, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo method to calculate approximate Bayes estimators and highest posterior density credible intervals. To illustrate the estimation methods, a simulation study is carried out with numerical results. It is concluded that the maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian estimation can be used for statistical inference in competing risks model under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme.     

ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION IN DIRECTED FINITE WEIGHTED RANDOM GRAPHS WITH AN INCREASING BI-DEGREE SEQUENCE

The asymptotic normality of the fixed number of the maximum likelihood estimators(MLEs) in the directed finite weighted network models with an increasing bi-degree sequence has been established recently. In this article, we further derive the central limit theorem for linear combinations of all the MLEs with an increasing dimension when the edges take finite discrete weight. Simulation studies are provided to illustrate the asymptotic results.     

Distributions of maximum likelihood estimators of Lorenz curve and Gini index of exponential distribution

Summary This paper presents the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the Lorenz curve and Gini index of the exponential distribution, their exact distributions and moments. All these MLEs are shown to converge almost surely and in therth mean. Further their asymptotic distributions are obtained. Here we use only very simple arguments to derive certain results that are very useful in statistical study of ‘inequality’.     

MCMC calibration of spot‐prices models in electricity markets

The calibration of some stochastic differential equation used to model spot prices in electricity markets is investigated. As an alternative to relying on standard likelihood maximization, the adoption of a fully Bayesian paradigm is explored, that relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic simulation and provides the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The proposed method is applied to one‐ and two‐factor stochastic models, using both simulated and real data. The results demonstrate good agreement between the maximum likelihood and MCMC point estimates. The latter approach, however, provides a more complete characterization of the model uncertainty, an information that can be exploited to obtain a more realistic assessment of the forecasting error. In order to further validate the MCMC approach, the posterior distribution of the Italian electricity price volatility is explored for different maturities and compared with the corresponding maximum likelihood estimates.     

随机截尾情形下Rayleigh分布参数的最大似然估计

研究了随机截尾情形下Rayleigh分布参数的最大似然估计,研究了最大似然估计的存在唯一性;在很一般的条件下证明了估计的强、弱相合性和渐近正态性.     

Estimation in a Discrete Reliability Growth Model Under an Inverse Sampling Scheme

This paper develops a discrete reliability growth (RG) model for an inverse sampling scheme, e.g., for destructive tests of expensive single-shot operations systems where design changes are made only and immediately after the occurrence of failures. For qi, the probability of failure at the i-th stage, a specific parametric form is chosen which conforms to the concept of the Duane (1964, IEEE Trans. Aerospace Electron. Systems, 2, 563-566) learning curve in the continuous-time RG setting. A generalized linear model approach is pursued which efficiently handles a certain non-standard situation arising in the study of large-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the parameters. Alternative closed-form estimators of the model parameters are proposed and compared with the MLEs through asymptotic efficiency as well as small and moderate sample size simulation studies.