Numerical Stochastic Model of Non-stationary Time Series of the Wind Chill Index

A numerical stochastic model of the high-resolution time series of the wind chill index is considered. The model is constructed under the assumption that time series of the wind chill index are non-stationary non-Gaussian random processes with time-dependent one-dimensional distributions. This assumption makes possible to take into account both daily and seasonal variations of real meteorological processes. Data of the long-term real observations at weather stations were used for estimating the model parameters and for the verification of the model. Based on the simulated trajectories, some statistical properties of rare and adverse weather events, like long periods of time with a low wind chill index, are studied. The model is also used to study the dependence of the statistical properties of the wind chill index time series on a climate change.

     

Real time estimation of stochastic volatility processes

Autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) processes and their extensions known as generalized ARCH (GARCH) processes are widely accepted for modelling financial time series, in particular stochastic volatility processes. The off-line estimation of ARCH and GARCH processes have been analyzed under a variety of conditions in the literature. The main contribution of this paper is a rigorous convergence analysis of a recursive estimation method for GARCH processes with restricted stability margin under reasonable technical conditions. The main tool in the convergence analysis is an appropriate modification of the theory of recursive estimation within a Markovian framework developed in Benveniste et al. (Adaptive Algorithms and Stochastic Approximations. Springer, Berlin, 1990). The basic elements of this theory will also be summarized. The viability of the method will be demonstrated by experimental results both for simulated and real data.     

OU models based on positive and negative subordinate processes applying in SHIBOR time series analysis and derivative pricing – through discrete differential method

ABSTRACT

On account of that the OU models based on Gaussian process cannot describe the characteristics of peak, bias and asymmetric thick tail in SHIBOR time series, this paper replaces the Gaussian process in OU model with Levy process which can be decomposed into positive and negative subordinate processes, constructs OU model based on positive and negative subordinate processes. Methods parameter estimation and stochastic simulation were carried out by making discrete the stochastic differential equations into stochastic difference equations. The result shows that non-Gaussian OU process based on positive and negative subordinate processes not only fits the time series but also has better economic interpretation. The innovation of our research is to build a model of Non-Gaussian OU process based on positive and negative subordinate processes with less stochastic terms, and it provides an efficient tool for forecasting SHIBOR time series.     

Constrained stochastic simulation—generation of time series around some specific event in a normal process

The method of so-called constrained stochastic simulation is introduced. This method specifies how to efficiently generate time series around some specific event in a normal process. All events which can be expressed by means of a linear condition (constraint) can be dealt with. Two examples are given in the paper: the generation of stochastic time series around local maxima and the generation of stochastic time series around a combination of a local minimum and maximum with a specified time separation. The constrained time series turn out to be a combination of the original process and several correction terms which includes the autocorrelation function and its time derivatives. For the application concerning local maxima it is shown that the presented method is in line with properties of a normal process near a local maximum as found in literature. The method can e.g. be applied to generate wind gusts in order to assess the extreme loading of wind turbines. AMS 2000 Subject Classification Primary—60G15, 60G70, 62G32; Secondary—62P30     

L<Superscript>1</Superscript>-convergence of smoothing densities in non-parametric state space models

This paper addresses the problem of reconstructing partially observed stochastic processes. The L¹ convergence of the filtering and smoothing densities in state space models is studied, when the transition and emission densities are estimated using non parametric kernel estimates. An application to real data is proposed, in which a wave time series is forecasted given a wind time series. Valérie Monbet—supported by IFREMER, Brest, France.     

The Stochastically Subordinated Poisson Normal Process for Modelling Financial Assets

The method of stochastic subordination, or random time indexing, has been recently applied to Wiener process price processes to model financial returns. Previous emphasis in stochastic subordination models has involved explicitly identifying the subordinating process with an observable quantity such as number of trades. In contrast, the approach taken here does not depend on the specific identification of the subordinated time variable, but rather assumes a class of time models and estimates parameters from data. In addition, a simple Markov process is proposed for the characteristic parameter of the subordinating distribution to explain the significant autocorrelation of the squared returns. It is shown, in particular, that the proposed model, while containing only a few more parameters than the commonly used Wiener process models, fits selected financial time series particularly well, characterising the autocorrelation structure and heavy tails, as well as preserving the desirable self-similarity structure, and the existence of risk-neutral measures necessary for objective derivative valuation. Also, it will be shown that the model proposed fits financial times series data better than the popular generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. Additionally, this paper will develop a skew model by replacing the normal variates with Lévy stable variates.     

Nonparametric quantile regression with heavy-tailed and strongly dependent errors

We consider nonparametric estimation of the conditional qth quantile for stationary time series. We deal with stationary time series with strong time dependence and heavy tails under the setting of random design. We estimate the conditional qth quantile by local linear regression and investigate the asymptotic properties. It is shown that the asymptotic properties are affected by both the time dependence and the tail index of the errors. The results of a small simulation study are also given.     

Monitoring the mean of multivariate financial time series

Timely detection of changes in the mean vector of multivariate financial time series is of great practical importance. In this paper, the covariance dynamics of the multivariate stochastic processes is assessed by either the RiskMetrics approach, the constant conditional correlation, or the dynamic conditional correlation models. For online monitoring of mean changes, we introduce several control schemes based on exponential smoothing and cumulative sums, which explicitly account for heteroscedasticity. The detecting ability of the introduced charts is compared for different processes in a Monte Carlo simulation study. The empirical study illustrates monitoring of changes in the mean vector of daily returns of exchange rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First-order optimization algorithms via inertial systems with Hessian driven damping

For controlled discrete-time stochastic processes we introduce a new class of dynamic risk measures, which we call process-based. Their main feature is that they measure risk of processes that are functions of the history of a base process. We introduce a new concept of conditional stochastic time consistency and we derive the structure of process-based risk measures enjoying this property. We show that they can be equivalently represented by a collection of static law-invariant risk measures on the space of functions of the state of the base process. We apply this result to controlled Markov processes and we derive dynamic programming equations. We also derive dynamic programming equations for multistage stochastic programming with decision-dependent distributions.

     

Exact Simulation of IG-OU Processes

IG-OU processes are a subclass of the non-Gaussian processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type, which are important models appearing in financial mathematics and elsewhere. The simulation of these processes is of interest for its applications in statistical inference. In this paper, a stochastic integral of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type is represented to be the sum of two independent random variables—one has an inverse Gaussian distribution and the other has a compound Poisson distribution. And in distribution, the compound Poisson random variable is equal to a sum of Poisson-distributed number positive random variables, which are independent identically distributed and have a common specified density function. The exact simulation of the IG-OU processes, proceeding from time 0 and going in steps of time interval Δ, is achieved via the representation of the stochastic integral. Comparing to the approximate method, which is based on Rosinski’s infinite series representation of the same stochastic integral, by the quantile–quantile plots, the advantage of the exact simulation method is obvious. In addition, as an application, we provide an estimator of the intensity parameter of the IG-OU processes and validate its superiority to another estimator by our exact simulation method.      

Stochastic flows and finite block frames

With the aim of understanding the mathematical structure of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem in non-equilibrium statistical physics and then constructing a mathematical principle in the modeling problem for time series analysis, we have developed the theory of KM₂O-Langevin equations for discrete time stochastic processes. In this paper, as a new method for model analysis in the theory of KM₂O-Langevin equations, we show that block frames provide a natural mathematical language for dealing with minimum norm expansions of multi-dimensional stochastic processes which do not necessarily satisfy stationarity and non-degeneracy conditions.     

On a New Fluctuation–Dissipation Theorem for Degenerate Stationary Flows

The theory of KM₂O-Langevin equations for stochastic processes (or more generally, flows in inner product spaces) have been developed in view of applications to time series analysis (e.g., Okabe and Nakano, 1991; Okabe, 1999, 2000; Okabe and Matsuura, 2000). In Klimek et al. (2002) and Matsuura and Okabe (2001, 2003), we have investigated degenerate flows, which is important in the analysis of time series obtained from deterministic dynamical systems. As a continuation, we shall in this paper derive an efficient algorithm by which the minimum norm coefficients of KM₂O-Langevin equations are explicitly obtained in degenerate cases. The obtained results have close relations to the calculations of conditional expectations such as nonlinear predictors of stochastic processes (Matsuura and Okabe, 2001). The method has also potential applications to financial mathematics.     

Kernel estimation and interpolation for time series containing missing observations

Summary Kernel estimators of conditional expectations are adapted for use in the analysis of stationary time series containing missing observations. Estimators of conditional expectations at fixed points are shown to have an asymptotic distribution with a relatively simple variance-covariance structure. The kernel method is also used to interpolate missing observations, and is shown to converge in probability to the least squares predictor. The results are established under the strong mixing condition and moment conditions, and the methods are applied to a real data set.     

Estimating quantiles in imperfect simulation models using conditional density estimation

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating quantiles related to the outcome of experiments with a technical system given the distribution of the input together with an (imperfect) simulation model of the technical system and (few) data points from the technical system. The distribution of the outcome of the technical system is estimated in a regression model, where the distribution of the residuals is estimated on the basis of a conditional density estimate. It is shown how Monte Carlo can be used to estimate quantiles of the outcome of the technical system on the basis of the above estimates, and the rate of convergence of the quantile estimate is analyzed. Under suitable assumptions, it is shown that this rate of convergence is faster than the rate of convergence of standard estimates which ignore either the (imperfect) simulation model or the data from the technical system; hence, it is crucial to combine both kinds of information. The results are illustrated by applying the estimates to simulated and real data.

     

Heteroscedastic mixture transition distribution (HMTD) model

The paper further studies the heteroscedastic mixture transition distribution (HMTD) model introduced by Berchtold. Both the expectation and the standard deviation of each component are written as functions of the past of the process. The stationarity conditions are derived. An expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm is used and shown to work well for estimation, the model selection problem is addressed, and the formulaes for computing the observed information matrix are derived. The shape changing feature of conditional distributions makes the model capable of modelling time series with asymmetric or multimodal distribution. The model is applied to several simulated and real datasets with satisfactory results.     

Study of Dependence for Some Stochastic Processes

Abstract

This article is concerned with studying the following problem: Consider a multivariate stochastic process whose law is characterized in terms of some infinitesimal characteristics, such as the infinitesimal generator in case of finite Markov chains. Under what conditions imposed on these infinitesimal characteristics of this multivariate process, the univariate components of the process agree in law with given univariate stochastic processes. Thus, in a sense, we study a stochastic processe' counterpart of the stochastic dependence problem, which in case of real valued random variables is solved in terms of Sklar's theorem.     

Efficient and robust estimation for autoregressive regression models using shape mixtures of skewt normal distribution

Multiple linear regression model based on normally distributed and uncorrelated errors is a popular statistical tool with application in various fields. But these assumptions of normality and no serial correlation are hardly met in real life. Hence, this study considers the linear regression time series model for series with outliers and autocorrelated errors. These autocorrelated errors are represented by a covariance-stationary autoregressive process where the independent innovations are driven by shape mixture of skew-t normal distribution. The shape mixture of skew-t normal distribution is a flexible extension of the skew-t normal with an additional shape parameter that controls skewness and kurtosis. With this error model, stochastic modeling of multiple outliers is possible with an adaptive robust maximum likelihood estimation of all the parameters. An Expectation Conditional Maximization Either algorithm is developed to carryout the maximum likelihood estimation. We derive asymptotic standard errors of the estimators through an information-based approximation. The performance of the estimation procedure developed is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations and real life data analysis.

     

One-armed bandit models with continuous and delayed responses

One-armed bandit processes with continuous delayed responses are formulated as controlled stochastic processes following the Bayesian approach. It is shown that under some regularity conditions, a Gittins-like index exists which is the limit of a monotonic sequence of break-even values characterizing optimal initial selections of arms for finite horizon bandit processes. Furthermore, there is an optimal stopping solution when all observations on the unknown arm are complete. Results are illustrated with a bandit model having exponentially distributed responses, in which case the controlled stochastic process becomes a Markov decision process, the Gittins-like index is the Gittins index and the Gittins index strategy is optimal. Acknowledgement.We thank an anonymous referee for constructive and insightful comments, especially those related to the notion of the Gittins index.Both authors are funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada.     

Simulation of direct chill casting under the influence of a low-frequency electromagnetic field

A comprehensive, multiphysics, meshless, numerical model is developed for the simulation of direct chill casting under the influence of a low-frequency electromagnetic field. The model uses mixture-continuum-mass, momentum and energy-conservation equations to simulate the solidification of axisymmetric aluminium-alloy billets. The electromagnetic-induction equation is coupled with the fluid flow and used to calculate the Lorentz force. The involved partial-differential equations are solved with the meshless-diffuse-approximate method by employing second-order polynomial shape functions and a 13-noded local support. An explicit time-stepping scheme is used. The boundary conditions for the heat transfer involve the effects of hot-top, mould chill and direct chill. The use of a meshless method and the automatic node-arrangement generation made it possible to investigate the complicated flow structures in geometrically complex inflow conditions, including sharp and curved edges, in a straightforward way. A time-dependent adaptive computational node arrangement is used to decrease the calculation time. The model is demonstrated by casting an Al-5.25wt%Cu aluminium alloy billet with a radius of 120 mm. Results on simplified and realistic inflow geometry are considered and compared. The effect of the low-frequency electromagnetic force on the temperature, liquid fraction and fluid flow are investigated under different current densities and frequencies.