一类具有马氏调制费率的风险模型的破产概率

对于给定的初始状态，本给出了条件破产所满足的积分方程。并推出了在具有平稳初始分布时破产概率的递归不等式和零初始资产时破产概率的一个简洁估计式。     

一类重灾风险模型的生存概率

无法预料的索赔是导致保险公司破产的一大因素,这种情况引起的索赔大多不是同分布的.因此论文从这一实际情况出发,在Sparre Andersen风险模型的基础上建立了广义更新风险模型,并对重尾索赔分布F∈S*给出了生存概率的局部等价式和破产概率的尾等价式.文章结果刻画了特殊巨额索赔对公司运营状况的影响,对公司运营策略提供了理论基础.本文结果包含、推广并改进了许多已知结果,与经典结果相比,显示出了模型的优越性.     

重尾索赔下更新风险模型生存概率局部估计解

本文在研究普通更新风险模型下当索赔分布F∈S*时生存概率的局部解问题的基础上,将模型推广到延迟更新模型,得到了生存概率局部解渐进估计．     

随机利率下马氏调控Pascal模型破产概率的估计

本文研究随机环境下带随机利率的复合Pascal风险模型破产概率上界估计,对利率和费率分别按两个马氏环境变化的Pascal风险模型,给出破产概率满足的不等式.     

复合二项过程风险模型的精细大偏差及有限时间破产概率

讨论基于客户到来的复合二项过程风险模型.在该风险模型中,假设索赔额序列是独立同分布的重尾随机变量序列,不同保单发生实际索赔的概率可以不同,则在索赔额服从ERV的条件下,得到了损失过程的精细大偏差;进一步地,得到了有限时间破产概率的Lundberg极限结果.     

广义复合Poisson风险模型下的生存概率

In this paper we generalize the aggregated premium income process from a constant rate process to a poisson process for the classical compound Poinsson risk model, then for the generalized model and the classical compound poisson risk model, we respectively get its survival probability in finite time period in case of exponential claim amounts.     

基于凸概度分布簇下WCVaR模型的有限逼近性

如何求解实际问题中Worst条件风险值模型是一个非常困难的问题,研究了凸概率分布簇下的WCVaR(Worst Conditional Value-at-Risk)模型等价性及其在序列分布簇下的有限逼近性,根据概率分布簇的VaR测度值,定义了WCVaR风险测度值和对应的WCVaR模型,证明了WCVaR模型等价一个另一个数学规划问题求解.在一定条件下,证明了在损失有界情形用有限个分布簇就可以足够近似计算WCVaR模型的最优解,因此,对于解决稳健型条件风险值模型具重要的实际价值.     

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In this paper, we study the dividend problems for finite time interval in the classical risk model. Assume that the dividends are paid according to a barrier strategy in the time interval $[0,t]$, i.e., given a nonnegative barrier value $b$, the dividends only can be paid when the surplus exceeds $b$ and the excess is paid as dividend. Applying the ``differential argument', the equation for the total expected discounted dividends in the time interval $[0,t]$ ($V(x;t)$) is derived, and the explicit expression for the Laplace transform of $V(x;t)$ with respect to $t$ is obtained under the assumption that the claim sizes are exponentially distributed. Finally, a numerical example is given by Stehfest method.     

Markov调制风险模型的轨道刻划和概率构造

用随机过程的轨道,严格地刻划了Markov调制风险模型U=(Q,G,F;J,s,X),它是已有的Markov调制风险模型的一般化.基于模型U,分别给出带保费率向量C和带税率向量γ的Markov调制风险过程R~u={R~u(t),t≥0}和R~u(γ)={R~u(γ,t),t≥0}.给定特征组A=(Q,G,F),用概率方法构造了模型U.从而为用随机过程理论和方法研究Markov调制风险模型和过程,奠定了严实的随机过程基础.     

Approximation of the Ultimate Ruin Probability in the Classical Risk Model Using Erlang Mixtures

In this paper, we approximate the ultimate ruin probability in the Cramér-Lundberg risk model when claim sizes have an arbitrary continuous distribution. We propose two approximation methods, based on Erlang Mixtures, which can be used for claim sizes distribution both light and heavy tailed. Additionally, using a continuous version of the empirical distribution, we develop a third approximation which can be used when the claim sizes distribution is unknown and paves the way for a statistical application. Numerical examples for the gamma, Weibull and truncated Pareto distributions are provided.     

带干扰的Erlang(2)风险模型的不破产概率

本文讨论了带干扰的Erlang(2)风险模型,通过构造一个延迟更新过程,我们得到了不破产概率满足的积分-微分方程,进而得到了不破产概率的明确表达式．     

完全离散二项风险模型下有限时间内的生存概率

本文用分析方法研究了保险公司在完全离散复合二项风险模型下生存到固定时刻n,在n恰好发生第k次赔付,而且在时刻n的盈余为某数x(x≥0）的概率公式,由此得到了有限时间内的生存概率公式。     

非平稳随机激励下系统首次穿越概率的近似解法

提出了非平稳Gausss白噪声激励下线性系统条件首次穿越概率的近似解析解.该近似解基于VanMarcke近似,但是,因为引进了随机过程和界限水平的标准化,VanMarcke公式中的期望衰减率可由响应的二阶统计矩获得,而不需要知道响应的相关函数或谱密度函数.给出了非平稳激励下线性系统响应的显式二阶统计矩.调制白噪声激励下单自由度线性系统的首次穿越概率分析说明了该方法的精度、效率和应用过程.     

Some Finite Time Ruin Problems in Markov-Modulated Risk Model

This paper studies the distribution of finite-time ruin quantities. It gives the probability mass function of finite time number of claims, and find the distribution function of aggregate claims by using discretise method and compared with exact distribution function, which shows that the approximation works very well. In addition, by applying decomposition for density function, it gives the explicit expression for joint density of ruin time and deficit at ruin.     

变保费率扰动风险模型的有限时间破产概率和大偏差

该文考虑变保费率的扰动风险模型, 其中索赔的分布是重尾的. 对这个风险模型, 给出了索赔剩余过程的精细大偏差; 同时, 还得到了它的有限时间破产概率的Cramer-Lundberg型极限结果.     

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??This paper studies the distribution of finite-time ruin quantities. It gives the probability mass function of finite time number of claims, and find the distribution function of aggregate claims by using discretise method and compared with exact distribution function, which shows that the approximation works very well. In addition, by applying decomposition for density function, it gives the explicit expression for joint density of ruin time and deficit at ruin.     

Approximation for Ruin Probability in the Sparre Andersen Model with Interest

We consider the Sparre Andersen model modified by the inclusion of interest on the surplus.Approximation for the ultimate ruin probability is derived by rounding.And upper bound and lower bound arealso derived by rounding-down and rounding-up respectively.According to the upper bound and lower bound,we can easily obtain the error estimation of the approximation.Applications of the results to the compoundPoisson model are given.     

双-Poisson模型下盈余首次达到给定水平的时间分析

本文运用鞅的方法研究了双 Poisson模型下盈余首次达到给定水平的时间 ,得到了它的矩母函数以及相应的期望、二阶和三阶中心矩的具体表达式 .     

A Multinomial Model for a Bond Market

In this paper, we generalize the classical binomial bond market model of Ho and Lee [2] to the multinomial model. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for such a bond market model to be arbitrage-free and path independent. We study the bond option pricing and forward-rate equation in the trinomial case.Research is supported by the Lithuanian State Science and Studies Foundation, program Mathematical models of Lithuanian economy for forecasting of the macroeconomic processes (registration No C-03004).__________Translated from Lietuvos Matematikos Rinkinys, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 413–428, October–December, 2004.     

Markov链利率下再保险模型的破产概率上界

研究了如何确定离散时间情况下再保险模型破产概率上界的问题.为了降低自身的破产风险,保险公司常常对部分乃至全部资产进行再保险.假定索赔间隔时间和索赔额具有一阶自回归结构,假定利率过程为取值于可数状态空间的Markov链.建立了其比例再保险模型,分别用递归更新技巧和鞅方法得到模型的破产概率上界.该破产概率上界作为评估再保险公司偿付能力和风险控制能力的重要指标,对于它的研究成果能为再保险人做出重大决策提供重要的依据,具有较为重要的理论和现实意义.