Efficient robust estimation of time-series regression models

The paper studies a new class of robust regression estimators based on the two-step least weighted squares (2S-LWS) estimator which employs data-adaptive weights determined from the empirical distribution or quantile functions of regression residuals obtained from an initial robust fit. Just like many existing two-step robust methods, the proposed 2S-LWS estimator preserves robust properties of the initial robust estimate. However, contrary to the existing methods, the first-order asymptotic behavior of 2S-LWS is fully independent of the initial estimate under mild conditions. We propose data-adaptive weighting schemes that perform well both in the cross-section and time-series data and prove the asymptotic normality and efficiency of the resulting procedure. A simulation study documents these theoretical properties in finite samples.     

Efficient estimation and variable selection for infinite variance autoregressive models

In this paper, a self-weighted composite quantile regression estimation procedure is developed to estimate unknown parameter in an infinite variance autoregressive (IVAR) model. The proposed estimator is asymptotically normal and more efficient than a single quantile regression estimator. At the same time, the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) for variable selection are also suggested. We show that the adaptive LASSO based on the self-weighted composite quantile regression enjoys the oracle properties. Simulation studies and a real data example are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed approaches.     

Partially adaptive robust estimation of regression models and applications

This paper provides an accessible exposition of recently developed partially adaptive estimation methods and their application. These methods are robust to thick-tailed or asymmetric error distributions and should be of interest to researchers and practitioners in data mining, agent learning, and mathematical modeling in a wide range of disciplines. In particular, partially adaptive estimation methods can serve as robust alternatives to ordinary regression analysis, as well as machine learning methods developed by the artificial intelligence and computing communities.Results from analysis of three problem domains demonstrate application of the theory.     

Efficient MCMC estimation of some elliptical copula regression models through scale mixtures of normals

This paper proposes an efficient estimation method for some elliptical copula regression models by expressing both copula density and marginal density functions as scale mixtures of normals (SMN). Implementing these models using the SMN is novel and allows efficient estimation via Bayesian methods. An innovative algorithm for the case of complex semicontinuous margins is also presented. We utilize the facts that copulas are invariant to the location and scale of the margins; all elliptical distributions have the same correlation structure; and some densities can be represented by the SMN. Two simulation studies, one on continuous margins and the other on semicontinuous margins, highlight the favorable performance of the proposed methods. Two empirical studies, one on the US excess returns and one on the Thai wage earnings, further illustrate the applicability of the proposals.     

Efficient MCMC estimation of inflated beta regression models

This paper introduces a new and computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation algorithm for the Bayesian analysis of zero, one, and zero and one inflated beta regression models. The algorithm is computationally efficient in the sense that it has low MCMC autocorrelations and computational time. A simulation study shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms the slice sampling and random walk Metropolis–Hastings algorithms in both small and large sample settings. An empirical illustration on a loss given default banking model demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed algorithm.     

Efficient estimation methods for non-Gaussian regression models in continuous time

Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics - In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric estimation theory for continuous time regression models with non-Gaussian Lévy noises...     

Quantile regression for linear models with autoregressive errors using EM algorithm

In this paper, we consider the quantile linear regression models with autoregressive errors. By incorporating the expectation–maximization algorithm into the considered model, the iterative weighted least square estimators for quantile regression parameters and autoregressive parameters are derived. Finally, the proposed procedure is illustrated by simulations and a real data example.     

Efficient on-line estimation of autoregressive parameters

New procedures for estimating autoregressive parameters in AR(m) models are proposed. The proposed method allows for incorporation of auxiliary information into the estimation process and produces estimation procedures, which are consistent and asymptotically efficient under certain regularity conditions. Also, these procedures are naturally on-line and do not require storing all the data. Theoretical results are presented in the case when m = 1. Two important particular cases are considered in detail: linear procedures and likelihood procedures with the LS truncations. A specific example is also presented to briefly discuss some practical aspects of applications of the procedures of this type.     

Robust estimation of the number of components for mixtures of linear regression models

In this paper, we investigate a robust estimation of the number of components in the mixture of regression models using trimmed information criteria. Compared to the traditional information criteria, the trimmed criteria are robust and not sensitive to outliers. The superiority of the trimmed methods in comparison with the traditional information criterion methods is illustrated through a simulation study. Two real data applications are also used to illustrate the effectiveness of the trimmed model selection methods.     

Efficient estimation of functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables

In this article,a procedure for estimating the coefficient functions on the functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables in different coefficient functions is defined.First step,by the local linear technique and the averaged method,the initial estimates of the coefficient functions are given.Second step,based on the initial estimates,the efficient estimates of the coefficient functions are proposed by a one-step back-fitting procedure.The efficient estimators share the same asymptotic normalities as the local linear estimators for the functional-coefficient models with a single smoothing variable in different functions.Two simulated examples show that the procedure is effective.     

Efficient estimation of longitudinal data additive varying coefficient regression models

Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, English Series - We consider a longitudinal data additive varying coefficient regression model, in which the coefficients of some factors (covariates) are...     

Shrinkage estimation and variable selection in multiple regression models with random coefficient autoregressive errors

In this paper, we consider improved estimation strategies for the parameter vector in multiple regression models with first-order random coefficient autoregressive errors (RCAR(1)). We propose a shrinkage estimation strategy and implement variable selection methods such as lasso and adaptive lasso strategies. The simulation results reveal that the shrinkage estimators perform better than both lasso and adaptive lasso when and only when there are many nuisance variables in the model.     

Efficient and robust tests for semiparametric models

In this paper, we investigate a hypothesis testing problem in regular semiparametric models using the Hellinger distance approach. Specifically, given a sample from a semiparametric family of \(\nu \)-densities of the form \(\{f_{\theta ,\eta }:\theta \in \Theta ,\eta \in \Gamma \},\) we consider the problem of testing a null hypothesis \(H_{0}:\theta \in \Theta _{0}\) against an alternative hypothesis \(H_{1}:\theta \in \Theta _{1},\) where \(\eta \) is a nuisance parameter (possibly of infinite dimensional), \(\nu \) is a \(\sigma \)-finite measure, \(\Theta \) is a bounded open subset of \(\mathbb {R}^{p}\), and \(\Gamma \) is a subset of some Banach or Hilbert space. We employ the Hellinger distance to construct a test statistic. The proposed method results in an explicit form of the test statistic. We show that the proposed test is asymptotically optimal (i.e., locally uniformly most powerful) and has some desirable robustness properties, such as resistance to deviations from the postulated model and in the presence of outliers.     

Quantile regression for robust bank efficiency score estimation

We discuss quantile regression techniques as a robust and easy to implement alternative for estimating Farell technical efficiency scores. The quantile regression approach estimates the production process for benchmark banks located at top conditional quantiles. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that even when generating data according to the assumptions of the stochastic frontier model (SFA), efficiency estimates obtained from quantile regressions resemble SFA-efficiency estimates. We apply the SFA and the quantile regression approach to German bank data for three banking groups, commercial banks, savings banks and cooperative banks to estimate efficiency scores based on a simple value added function and a multiple-input–multiple-output cost function. The results reveal that the efficient (benchmark) banks have production and cost elasticities which differ considerably from elasticities obtained from conditional mean functions and stochastic frontier functions.     

On parameter estimation of threshold autoregressive models

This paper studies the threshold estimation of a TAR model when the underlying threshold parameter is a random variable. It is shown that the Bayesian estimator is consistent and its limit distribution is expressed in terms of a limit likelihood ratio. Furthermore, convergence of moments of the estimators is also established. The limit distribution can be computed via explicit simulations from which testing and inference for the threshold parameter can be conducted. The obtained results are illustrated with numerical simulations.     

Efficient and robust scale estimation for trended time series

This paper presents a new method for robust online variability extraction in time series. The proposed estimator is simultaneously highly robust and efficient. We derive its breakdown point, influence function, and asymptotic variance and study the finite sample properties in a simulation study.     

Efficient estimation for semiparametric varying- coefficient partially linear regression models with current status data

This article considers a semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model with current status data. The semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model which is a generalization of the partially linear regression model and varying-coefficient regression model that allows one to explore the possibly nonlinear effect of a certain covariate on the response variable. A Sieve maximum likelihood estimation method is proposed and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are discussed. Under some mild conditions, the estimators are shown to be strongly consistent. The convergence rate of the estimator for the unknown smooth function is obtained and the estimator for the unknown parameter is shown to be asymptotically efficient and normally distributed. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the small-sample properties of the proposed estimates and a real dataset is used to illustrate our approach.     

Finite mixture of regression models for censored data based on scale mixtures of normal distributions

Advances in Data Analysis and Classification - In statistical analysis, particularly in econometrics, the finite mixture of regression models based on the normality assumption is routinely used to...     

Efficient estimation of the error distribution in a varying coefficient regression model

It is shown that the weighted residual-based estimator of Schick, Zhu, and Du (2017) is efficient in some special cases and can be made to be efficient by adding a stochastic correction term. The efficiency is shown by deriving the efficient influence function and establishing a uniform stochastic expansion with this influence function. The correction term relies on estimators of the score function for the errors and other characteristics of the model.