A Reduced-Form Model for Correlated Defaults with Regime-Switching Shot Noise Intensities

In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional reduced form contagion model with regime-switching interacting default intensities. The model assumes that the intensities of the default times are driven by macro-economy described by a homogenous Markov chain and that the default of one firm may trigger a positive jump, associated with the state of Markov chain, in the default intensity of the other firm. The intensities before the default of the other firm are modeled by a two-dimensional regime-switching shot noise process with common shocks. By using the idea of “change of measure” and some closed-form formulas for the joint conditional Laplace transforms of the regime-switching shot noise processes and the integrated regime-switching shot noise processes, we derive the two-dimensional conditional and unconditional joint distributions of the default times. Based on these results, we can express the single-name credit default swap (CDS) spread, the first and second-to-default CDS spreads on two underlyings in terms of fundamental matrix solutions of linear, matrix-valued, ordinary differential equations.     

带有相依重尾冲击的Poisson噪音过程尾的一致渐近性质

本文考虑了带有某种相依重尾冲击的Poisson噪音过程尾的一致渐近性质.当冲击是二元上尾渐近独立的非负随机变量具有长尾和控制变化尾分布且噪音函数具有正的上下界时,得到了过程尾概率的一致渐近公式.进而,当冲击具有连续的一致变化尾分布时,去除了噪音函数具有正的下界的限制.对于噪音函数不一定具有正的上界的情形,当冲击具有两两负象限相依结构时,也得到了一致渐近性结果.     

马氏调制散粒噪声模型在保险中的应用

在常利率环境下,研究了一个含相关业务类的复合Cox风险模型,其保险业务间的相关结构是由共同跳结构来描述的.假设两类保险业务的理赔来到强度过程服从一个多维的马氏调控散粒噪声过程.利用鞅方法,给出了总折现理赔量和马氏调控散粒噪声强度过程的联合拉普拉斯变换,并利用拉普拉斯变换给出了总折现理赔量的期望和方差等特征量.     

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Credit valuation adjustment is the price adjustment of financial contract considering possible default of counterparty and it is an important way to measure counterparty risk. It is the key to establish a reasonable default dependence structure model. We introduce an economic state variable and shot noise processes in a Markov copula model and establish a regime switching Markov copula model with shot noise, where we can not only describe the impact of common economic conditions characteristics but also describe the credit name's characteristic. In this proposed model, we study martingale property of the model and the collateralized CVA of credit default swaps, and furthermore, we perfer some numerical calculations on the collateralized CVA and examine the impact of some model parameters on the CVA.     

On the Proportional Odds Model in Survival Analysis

The proportional odds (PO) model with its property of convergent hazard functions is of considerable value in modeling survival data with non-proportional hazards. This paper explores the structure, implications, and properties of the PO model. Results proved include connections with geometric minima and maxima, ageing characteristics, and bounds on mean and variance of survival times.     

On a Stochastic Survival Model for a System Under Randomly Variable Environment

In many cases, the survival probability of a system depends not only on the intrinsic characteristic of the system itself but also on the randomly variable external environment under which the system is being operated. In this paper we study a stochastic survival model for a system under random shock process which affects the survival of the system in a complicated way. The lifetime distribution of the system is derived, and the effect of environmental factors on the failure process of the system is also investigated.     

On a Nonstationary Model of a Catalytic Process in a Fluidized Bed

In the half-strip 0 ≤ x ≤ h, t ≤ 0 we consider a mixed problem for an almost linear system of three first order PDEs, one of which does not involve derivatives with respect to t. We prove the existence and uniqueness of a generalized Holder continuous solution and generalized piecewise smooth and smooth solutions. For the piecewise smooth solution we prove the stabilization of some functionals as t → ∞.     

保费收入为Poisson过程的更新风险模型

对于保费收入为Poisson过程的更新风险模型,利用马氏链的理论,借助转移概率,得出了破产概率和破产赤字的展式及其所满足的积分方程.     

Tail Behavior of Poisson Shot Noise Processes under Heavy-tailed Shocks and Actuarial Applications

This paper considers the tail behavior of Poisson shot noise processes where the shock random variables are generally dependent but bivariate upper tail independent. Some uniform asymptotic relations are established for tail probabilities of the process. As the Poisson shot noise process can capture the effects of delay factors and the interest factor in the insurance business, these established results are very useful in many insurance applications. As examples, they are applied to two important actuarial topics: ruin probabilities and insurance premium approximation.     

On the Phase Portrait of a Harmonic Oscillator with Friction Perturbed by a Random Process of White Noise Type

We study the phase portrait of a harmonic oscillator with friction for the case in which random perturbations of white noise type expressed in the Itô form act at a certain angle to the phase velocity vector.     

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Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in Cox-Ingersoll-Ross interest rate framework to model the instantaneous interest rate dynamics. However, empirical studies have also shown that the return distribution of interest rate has a higher peak and two fatter tails than those of the normal distribution. Meanwhile, when the rare catastrophic shocks occur or the regime shifts in the economy and finance, the money market may have jumps. In this paper, we will consider a class of reflected Cox-Ingersoll-Ross interest rate models with noise. Furthermore, we shall continue to supply the Laplace transform of the stationary distribution about this reflected diffusion process with jumps.     

一类重灾风险模型的生存概率

无法预料的索赔是导致保险公司破产的一大因素,这种情况引起的索赔大多不是同分布的.因此论文从这一实际情况出发,在Sparre Andersen风险模型的基础上建立了广义更新风险模型,并对重尾索赔分布F∈S*给出了生存概率的局部等价式和破产概率的尾等价式.文章结果刻画了特殊巨额索赔对公司运营状况的影响,对公司运营策略提供了理论基础.本文结果包含、推广并改进了许多已知结果,与经典结果相比,显示出了模型的优越性.     

On a New Diffeomorphic Multi-Modality Image Registration Model and Its Convergent Gauss-Newton Solver

In this work, we propose a new variational model for multi-modal image registration and present an efficient numerical implementation. The model minimizes a new functional based on using reformulated normalized gradients of the images as the fidelity term and higher-order derivatives as the regularizer. A key feature of the model is its ability of guaranteeing a diffeomorphic transformation which is achieved by a control term motivated by the quasi-conformal map and Beltrami coefficient. The existence of the solution of this model is established. To solve the model numerically, we design a Gauss-Newton method to solve the resulting discrete optimization problem and prove its convergence; a multilevel technique is employed to speed up the initialization and avoid likely local minima of the underlying functional. Finally, numerical experiments demonstrate that this new model can deliver good performances for multi-modal image registration and simultaneously generate an accurate diffeomorphic transformation.     

三状态隐马氏模型观测过程的可逆性(英文)

对于连续时间和离散时间三状态隐马氏模型,给出了观测过程直到三维的似然函数流的显式表达.作为一个应用,证明了观测过程可逆性的充分必要条件.     

基于跳扩散过程的Omega模型

文章通过在Omega模型中加入布朗运动扰动项,提出了一种跳扩散Omega破产模型.在索赔额为指数分布的情形下,给出了破产率函数是常数时的破产概率函数表达式.文章进一步研究了破产概率和盈余过程的“负占有时”之间的关系,并给出了破产概率函数的第二种推导过程.最后通过两个数值试验,将我们的模型与Albreeher和Lautscham (2013)的Omega模型的破产概率进行了比较分析.     

污染环境中的非自治种群模型的生存分析

研究了环境污染对种群的长期影响.考虑到新生个体的出生对种群体内毒素的影响,以及死亡的种群个体将体内毒素带回环境,建立了一个非自治数学模型.主要运用比较定理得到了种群一致持续生存、弱持续生存以及绝灭的判据.     

On a Newton-Kurchatov-type Iterative Process

Newton's method and Kurchatov's method are iterative processes known for their fast speed of convergence. We construct from both methods an iterative method to approximate solutions of nonlinear equations given by a nondifferentiable operator, and we study its semilocal convergence in Banach spaces. Finally, we consider several applications of this new iterative process.     

On the Extrapolation of Entire Functions Observed in a Gaussian White Noise

We solve the problem of extrapolation of an analytic function of a certain class in the case where its values are observed in a white noise whose intensity is not high.