A new approach to evaluate the market share of service industries

The purpose of this paper is to apply the model of stochastic networks (networks of quasi-reversible stations) to customer brand-choice behaviour for studying the market share of some service undustries such as in life insurance. We estimate the market share and the mean unit sales of a specified brand in a static market. The model involves use time, customer loyalty, brand switching, initial purchasing and market share variation.     

品牌体验对品牌忠诚的影响机制分析——基于餐饮品牌的实证研究

本文以餐饮品牌为研究对象,探讨了包括感官体验、情感体验和关联体验三个维度的品牌体验对品牌忠诚的影响机制,基于对388份问卷数据的分析,我们发现:除感官体验维度对态度忠诚存在直接的正向影响之外,品牌体验的其他各维度对态度忠诚和行为忠诚均无直接作用;品牌体验的三个维度均可通过感知价值和顾客满意对品牌忠诚产生间接影响,其中感官体验的效应最大,其次为情感体验,关联体验相对较低。     

品牌资产在营销活动对顾客忠诚影响中的作用研究

在如今竞争越来越激烈的市场上,品牌资产越来越被学者与实业者所重视.同时,顾客忠诚作为企业获利的根本要素,也是关注的焦点.目前,企业开展营销活动是获取顾客忠诚的重要手段之一,但品牌资产在这一过程中所可能起到的作用的研究仍然较为缺乏.通过构建理论模型与实践调研对这一问题进行了实证研究,结果表明品牌资产的强度影响着营销活动对顾客忠诚的影响.最后在实证结论的基础上提出了相关管理启示.     

The impact of loyalty and promotion effects on retention rate

Researching customer retention rates is made difficult because of the lack of suitable systems with which to measure it. From a first-order Markov brand-switching model, serial equations are derived to estimate the retention rate using market share and loyalty. To explore the impact of loyalty and promotion programme on retention rate, data from five leading brands for three product categories were obtained to fit the developed model. Findings suggest that: (1) when the loyalty effect remains unchanged over a period of time, the greater the effect of a promotion programme, the greater the retention rate; (2) when the promotion effects among brands are similar, the retention rate varies depending on level of loyalty; and (3) when the proportion of loyal customers is high, the proportion of potential switchers affected by promotion programmes is low. In this case, the impact of a promotion programme on the retention rate is not significant. This model successfully demonstrates how the Markov brand-switching model can be employed to estimate a measure of retention rate from consumer panel data as well as to better understand how promotion affects loyalty, switching behaviour, and retention rate.     

Fighting strategies in a market with counterfeits

Counterfeiting is a widely spread phenomenon and has seen rapid growth in recent years. In this paper, we adopt the standard vertical differentiation model and allow consumers the choices of purchasing an authentic product, purchasing a counterfeit, or not buying. We focus on how non-deceptive counterfeits, which consumers know at time of purchase that the products are counterfeits with certainty, affect the price, market share and profitability of brand name products. We also consider the strategies for brand name companies to fight counterfeiting. We compare different fighting strategies in a market with one brand name product and its counterfeit, and derive equilibrium fighting strategies in a market with two competing brand name products and a counterfeit under general conditions.     

基于博弈论视角的农业电商区域品牌建设

农产品区域品牌的建立有利于买家在电商平台上对同类产品进行甄别,农产品区域品牌也是一个地区具有的区域特色农产品的"代言",对提升农产品竞争力、降低交易成本具有积极意义.但是农产品区域品牌又具有公共物品的属性,因此可能导致一些劣质产品出现"搭便车"的情况,必须通过一系列制度的建设来避免以次充好情况的出现,从而维护农产品区域品牌的品牌忠诚度和认同度,为农业电商的发展提供一个更有利的市场环境.     

品牌的非对称需求价格弹性模型:以中国手机行业为例

本文提出了计算品牌的需求价格弹性的非对称市场反应函数模型,从而使对向上的价格弹性和向下的价格弹性的分别考量成为可能。根据此模型,本文对中国手机行业进行了实证研究,共计算了GSM市场的13个品牌和CDMA市场的9个品牌的向上和向下的价格弹性,并且通过方差分析对国内外手机品牌的价格弹性进行了比较。结果发现,在GSM和CDMA市场上国内外手机品牌的价格弹性都存在显著差异,反映了国内外手机品牌的市场力量的差异。最后根据研究结果为我国国内手机品牌提出对策建议。     

Brand Shifting in Hierarchical Markets: A New Model and Information Equivalency

The brand shifting problem is reviewed. A new allocation of brand shifting volume is shown to be compatible with a posited hierarchical (nested) market structure, unlike previous allocations. Like the Sanddabs model on which it is based, the new allocation, called Sanddabs/Nest, uses purchase tracking information but does not require brand similarity data. The paper shows Sanddabs/Nest is equivalent to a principle of Kullback information. Implications for brand management are detailed.     

考虑海外代购的品牌商定价模型研究

随着海外代购体量的日趋增大,代购带来的低价威胁对于在不同国家不同市场销售产品的公司来说已经成为一个日益严重的问题。同时,代购渠道中假货的问题也愈发严重。因此,在海外代购背景下探究产品定价模型具有必要性。以往研究普遍认为这种未经授权的销售会削减品牌方的利润,但实则不然。基于这一发现,本研究为在两个不同市场销售相同产品但面临代购低价威胁的公司制定考虑代购的市场定价模型。由公司制定两个市场的价格,消费者选择是否从包括代购在内的三个渠道购买产品。推出两个授权市场的最优价格,分析各参数变化对最优价格的影响,并校验最优价格对消费者需求和总利润的影响。模型分析表明,高价市场中有部分消费者需求转向海外代购,同时低价市场的消费者需求也受到了影响,且在一定条件下,提高高价市场的产品定价能够扩大低价市场的需求,从代购的角度解释了现实中需求曲线向上倾斜的现象。此外,两个独立市场之间的价格差距对代购市场的销售也产生了积极影响,并且在某些条件下,增大价格差距可以提高公司的收益水平。随后讨论了一种极端模型和三种扩展模型,通过模型分析表示,扩展后的定价模型也显示出与基础市场模型相似的灵敏度分析结果,同样得到两个市场的价差扩大会导致代购市场的销售额增加的结论,并且在一定条件下,公司的利润更高,增加了结论的可信度。     

基于双曲型谱风险度量的大用户购电策略

直购电模式正在推行,大用户与电网公司的风险偏好却各不相同。本文将风险偏好纳入结算策略,建立了基于双曲型谱风险的购电优化模型,并用PJM日前市场的数据进行了实证分析。探讨了风险厌恶因子的敏感范围,将大用户划分为积极、稳健和保守三种类型,分别讨论了其购电策略。结果表明:无论风险偏好如何,大用户总愿意为获得高收益而承担更高的风险;风险偏好是购电策略的重要影响因素;当风险偏好既定时,大用户在远期合同市场和日前市场的购电比例可由谱风险值确定。随着谱风险值的增加,大用户会减少远期合同市场的购电量,更倾向于在日前市场购电。     

基于logit回归模型的顾客资产驱动因素与忠诚意向关系实证研究

国内关于顾客资产驱动因素模型的实证研究较少.将顾客资产三大驱动因素(价值资产、品牌资产和关系资产)与忠诚意向联系起来,用我国银行业688个数据进行了Logit回归建模,研究顾客资产驱动因素分别与忠诚意向之间的关系、驱动因素两两之间的关系以及顾客资产驱动因素组合对忠诚意向产生的协同效应.研究结论表明,首先,价值资产、品牌资产、关系资产均对顾客忠诚意向产生显著正影响;其次,品牌资产对关系资产和价值资产均产生显著正影响,但价值资产对关系资产的直接影响不显著,这可能是因为品牌资产在价值资产和关系资产之间的中介作用;最后,同时投资价值资产和品牌资产或同时投资关系资产和品牌资产反而会使顾客忠诚意向降低.研究结论能够为银行管理者优化营销经费配置提供理论支持.     

Stochastic modelling of household behaviour before,during and after a consumer price promotion

A stochastic model is developed to study household behaviour with regard to purchase quantity, brand choice and purchase timing before, during and after a price change and a price promotion such as price-offs and price-cuts. The basic assumption of the model is that price promotion and levels of consumer inventory influence a household's purchase-timing and brand-switching decisions. The model incorporates market segments and brand switching on aggregated demand for the brands by the use of multivariate Markov processes. A transient stochastic model is employed to analyse the dynamic process of household behaviour before, during, and after a price promotion. The interpurchase time that is derived from the model does not require any assumptions and is not independently, identically distributed. An empirical analysis using the Information Resources Incorporated cracker data indicated that (1) price promotion does affect household purchase of the brand and (2) households with larger family size tend to purchase promoted items. We conjecture that households with larger family size take advantage of the lower price of the promoted brands while smaller households tend to remain loyal to one brand.     

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This paper investigates the pricing of CatEPuts under a Markovian regime-switching jump-diffusion model. The parameters of this model, including the risk-free interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility of the clients' equity, are modulated by a continuous-time, finite-state, observable Markov chain. An equivalent martingale measure is selected by employing the regime-switching Esscher transform. The fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique is applied to price the CatEPuts. In a two-state Markov chain case, numerical example is presented to illustrate the practical implementation of the model.     

基于灰色加权马尔可夫链的移动通信市场预测

在传统的用灰色预测模型预测的方法基础上,建立了灰色加权马尔可夫链模型.以中国移动通信市场预测作为实例,介绍了使用这种模型的方法与步骤.灰色加权马尔可夫链模型既考虑了从时间序列中挖掘数据的演变规律,又通过规范化各阶自相关系数为权重,用加权的马尔可夫转移概率矩阵的变换,考虑数据的随机波动,具有严密的科学性,能较好地应用于中国移动通信市场的预测.     

消费者心理违约对品牌权益的影响机制研究

本文旨在把组织行为学中的心理契约理论应用于市场营销情景下的品牌关系。本文通过把心理违约分成两个阶段,即心理违约(Psychological Contrac(?) Breach)和心理违背(Psychological Contract Violation)来研究消费者心理违约对品牌权益的影响。结果显示,心理违背会负面地影响品牌形象和品牌忠诚。但在心理违约和心理违背之间还存在着其它影响因素,有待进一步的研究。     

Measuring the effects of new brand introduction on inter-brand strategic interaction

This paper empirically investigates the effects of a new brand introduction on the market structure of a product market, i.e., the nature of competition among existing brands. The model is based on the discrete choice multinomial logit model in which the household-specific brand intercepts are decomposed into brand locations in attribute space and households' importance weights for these attributes. The formulation also incorporates the effects of marketing variables on brand choice behavior. The relative proximity of brands in the attribute space provides a measure of the intensity of competitive rivalry among brands. A new brand introduction results in an additional location in this space. Three consequences of the introduction are investigated. (i) Impact on brand locations of extant brands. (ii) Change in the importance weights assigned by households to the attributes. (iii) Effects on households' sensitivities to marketing activities. As some or all of the above could change, these three effects result in eight combinations that need to be studied. The general model is one in which all three components are allowed to change and this nests the remaining seven specifications. The specification that is most consistent with the data can, therefore, be isolated via a statistical test of nested hypotheses. Identifying the consequences of the introduction for market structure has implications for managerial action. An empirical application of the model to household scanner panel data using liquid laundry detergents is provided.     

网络品牌忠诚驱动因素分类研究

将网络品牌分为传统品牌的网络延伸和网络新品牌两种形式,通过分析网络品牌忠诚的动态形成过程,构建了网络品牌忠诚驱动要素研究模型。实证研究发现,网络品牌的符号因素、属性因素、精神因素、价值观因素、传播因素、体验因素都与网络品牌忠诚正相关,但两类网络品牌忠诚的关键驱动因素存在差别。体验因素、价值观因素和属性因素是网络新品牌忠诚的关键驱动因素,而属性因素、体验因素和传播因素对网络化的传统品牌忠诚度有重要影响。     

Pricing Options Under a Generalized Markov-Modulated Jump-Diffusion Model

Abstract

We consider the pricing of options when the dynamics of the risky underlying asset are driven by a Markov-modulated jump-diffusion model. We suppose that the market interest rate, the drift and the volatility of the underlying risky asset switch over time according to the state of an economy, which is modelled by a continuous-time Markov chain. The measure process is defined to be a generalized mixture of Poisson random measure and encompasses a general class of processes, for example, a generalized gamma process, which includes the weighted gamma process and the inverse Gaussian process. Another interesting feature of the measure process is that jump times and jump sizes can be correlated in general. The model considered here can provide market practitioners with flexibility in modelling the dynamics of the underlying risky asset. We employ the generalized regime-switching Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure in the incomplete market setting. A system of coupled partial-differential-integral equations satisfied by the European option prices is derived. We also derive a decomposition result for an American put option into its European counterpart and early exercise premium. Simulation results of the model have been presented and discussed.     

Pricing and Advertising of Private and National Brands in a Dynamic Marketing Channel

We consider a marketing channel where a retailer sells, along the manufacturer’s brand, its own store brand. We assume that each player invests in advertising in order to build the brand’s goodwill. One distinctive feature of this paper is the introduction of the negative effect of own advertising on other player’s goodwill stock evolution. We characterize feedback-Nash pricing and advertising strategies and assess the impact of the store brand and national brand’s goodwill stocks on these strategies in different settings. The main findings suggest first that investing in building up some equity for each brand reduces the price competition between them and propels the market power for both. Second, the retailer will pass to consumer an increase in its purchasing cost of the national brand in all situations as no coordination is taken into account to counter the double marginalization problem. Finally, the higher the brand equity of the store brand, the more the retailer invests in advertising.