Stochastic Breakeven Points

When the probability of a negative unit contribution is non-negligible, desirable and undesirable data configurations may map into the same breakeven point. In the general case, the decision relevance of a breakeven point probability distribution is rather obscure. Assuming bivariate normality, with a "small" probability of a negative denominator, then an approximation procedure based on the Geary-Hinkley transformation is a convenient and powerful means of obtaining information about the breakeven point probability distribution. Hence, for practical purposes it may be unnecessary to resort to computer simulation or to numerical integration of the complex exact density function of the breakeven point.     

Plastic Structural Analysis Under Stochastic Uncertainty

Problems from limit load or shakedown analysis are based on the convex, linear or linearized yield/strength condition and the linear equilibrium equation for the generic stress vector. Having to take into account, in practice, stochastic variations of the model parameters (e.g., yield stresses, plastic capacities) and external loadings, the basic stochastic plastic analysis problem must be replaced by an appropriate deterministic substitute problem. Instead of calculating approximatively the probability of failure based on a certain choice of failure modes, here, a direct approach is presented based on the costs for missing carrying capacity and the failure costs (e.g., costs for damage, repair, compensation for weakness within the structure, etc.). Based on the basic mechanical survival conditions, the failure costs may be represented by the minimum value of a convex and often linear program. Several mathematical properties of this program are shown. Minimizing then the total expected costs subject to the remaining (simple) deterministic constraints, a stochastic optimization problem is obtained which may be represented by a “Stochastic Convex Program (SCP) with recourse”. Working with linearized yield/strength conditions, a “Stochastic Linear Program (SLP) with complete fixed recourse” is obtained. In case of a discretely distributed probability distribution or after the discretization of a more general probability distribution of the random structural parameters and loadings as well as certain random cost factors one has a linear program (LP) with a so-called “dual decomposition data” structure. For stochastic programs of this type many theoretical results and efficient numerical solution procedures (LP-solver) are available. The mathematical properties of theses substitute problems are considered. Furthermore approximate analytical formulas for the limit load factor are given.     

A Stochastic Filtering Approach To Survival Analysis

We connect some basic issues in survival analysis in biostatistics with estimation and convergence theories in stochastic filtering. Viewing censored data problems through a filtering perspective, we can derive estimators expressed using stochastic integral/differential equations. We then study statistical asymptotic using convergence theory of stochastic equations. We illustrate the effectiveness of such a program by revisiting the right censored and the doubly censored data problems.     

基于随机参照点的均值-风险分析

本文依据参照依赖偏好模型提出了基于随机参照点的风险度量方法,进而构建了均值-风险模型,并讨论了该决策方法与随机占优之间的一致性。研究发现,该决策方法不仅与一级随机占优是一致的而且与二级随机占优也是一致的。由于二级随机占优与期望效用理论的一致性,因而所构建的均值-风险模型与期望效用理论也是一致的。     

Stochastic Analysis of the Fractional Brownian Motion

Since the fractional Brownian motion is not a semi-martingale, the usual Ito calculus cannot be used to define a full stochastic calculus. However, in this work, we obtain the Itô formula, the Itô–Clark representation formula and the Girsanov theorem for the functionals of a fractional Brownian motion using the stochastic calculus of variations.     

Random Walk Analysis in Antagonistic Stochastic Games

Abstract

This article deals with two “antagonistic random processes” that are intended to model classes of completely noncooperative games occurring in economics, engineering, natural sciences, and warfare. In terms of game theory, these processes can represent two players with opposite interests. The actions of the players are manifested by a series of strikes of random magnitudes imposed onto the opposite side and rendered at random times. Each of the assaults is aimed to inflict damage to vital areas. In contrast with some strictly antagonistic games where a game ends with one single successful hit, in the current setting, each side (player) can endure multiple strikes before perishing. Each player has a fixed cumulative threshold of tolerance which represents how much damage he can endure before succumbing. Each player will try to defeat the adversary at his earliest opportunity, and the time when one of them collapses is referred to as the “ruin time”. We predict the ruin time of each player, and the cumulative status of all related components for each player at ruin time. The actions of each player are formalized by a marked point process representing (an economic) status of each opponent at any given moment of time. Their marks are assumed to be weakly monotone, which means that each opposite side accumulates damages, but does not have the ability to recover. We render a time-sensitive analysis of a bivariate continuous time parameter process representing the status of each player at any given time and at the ruin time and obtain explicit formulas for related functionals.     

A Geometric Framework for Stochastic Shape Analysis

We introduce a stochastic model of diffeomorphisms, whose action on a variety of data types descends to stochastic evolution of shapes, images and landmarks. The stochasticity is introduced in the vector field which transports the data in the large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping framework for shape analysis and image registration. The stochasticity thereby models errors or uncertainties of the flow in following the prescribed deformation velocity. The approach is illustrated in the example of finite-dimensional landmark manifolds, whose stochastic evolution is studied both via the Fokker–Planck equation and by numerical simulations. We derive two approaches for inferring parameters of the stochastic model from landmark configurations observed at discrete time points. The first of the two approaches matches moments of the Fokker–Planck equation to sample moments of the data, while the second approach employs an expectation-maximization based algorithm using a Monte Carlo bridge sampling scheme to optimise the data likelihood. We derive and numerically test the ability of the two approaches to infer the spatial correlation length of the underlying noise.

     

A Stochastic Analysis of a Staffing Problem

Consider an organization with several categories of staff, each having a specified number of members. The age of entry into service and the age of retirement are both specified. Withdrawals occur at time-independent rates. Under this set-up, the authors have computed the maximum ages at which promotions should take place, assuming that the staff members continuing at various ages are random. Some illustrative calculations have been carried out.     

Stochastic Modeling and Convergence Analysis of Internet Routers北大核心CSCD

目前建立的路由收敛模型大部分都是确定性模型,而路由器在收敛过程中存在丢包、链路噪声、互连拓扑结构突变等现象。针对这些随机问题,该文引入Bernoulli白序列分布、Wiener过程、Markov过程,提出了一种新的随机动力系统模型,应用随机微分方程理论和随机分析方法得出其路由收敛的充分条件,结果证明,随机环境下路由状态收敛与路由器连接拓扑的Laplace矩阵、Markov切换的平稳分布、网络中数据包的成功传输率以及噪声强度息息相关。最后通过一个数值实例验证了相关结论的有效性。     

Multiscale Analysis of Semilinear Damped Stochastic Wave Equations

In this paper we proceed with the multiscale analysis of semilinear damped stochastic wave motions. The analysis is made by combining the well-known sigma convergence method with its stochastic counterpart, associated to some compactness results such as the Prokhorov and Skorokhod theorems. We derive the equivalent model, which is of the same type as the micro-model. One of the novelties of the work is that the corrector problem is solved in the classical sense of distributions,thereby allowing ...     

与TSD准则一致的组合证券投资分析

基于预先给定的目标收益率,利用投资者对低于目标收益率的风险损失和高于目标收益率的风险报酬之间的权衡,给出了一些非对称风险度量模型,特别其中一种风险度量是低于参考点的方差和高于参考点的方差的加权和,它利用二阶上偏矩来修正二阶下偏矩,进一步建立了在该非对称风险度量下的组合投资优化模型,并证明了该模型在三阶随机占优的意义下是有效的.此外,还给出了其它3个模型与三阶随机占优准则是否一致的结论,并对所给出的几个组合证券投资模型的求解方法及其应用进行了分析.以上研究和分析为投资者在选择投资模型时避免盲目性、任意性提供了有益的决策参考.     

具有比率依赖随机食物链系统的定性分析

研究了一类具有比率依赖随机食物链系统的动力学行为,运用随机微分方程比较定理和伊藤公式,证明了系统存在唯一正解,给出随机食物链系统的持久性和物种趋于灭绝的条件.最后,通过数值模拟验证所得结果的正确性.     

Numerical Analysis of the Stochastic Moving Boundary Problem

We extend and generalize some recent results on complete convergence (cf. Hu, Moricz, and Taylor [14], Gut [11], Wang, Bhaskara Rao, and Yang [26], Kuczmaszewska and Szynal [17], and Sung [23]) for arrays of rowwise independent Banach space valued random elements. In the main result, no assumptions are made concerning the existence of expected values or absolute moments of the random elements and no assumptions are made concerning the geometry of the underlying Banach space. Some well-known results from the literature are obtained easily as corollaries. The corresponding convergence rates are also established     

Stochastic Analysis of the Weber Problem on the Sphere

In this paper we deal with the location of one facility on the surface of the sphere (globe) that minimizes the weighted sum of distances to a given set of demand points on the surface of the sphere. We assume that demand points are randomly generated on the sphere, and so are the weights. We prove that when the number of demand points increases to infinity, then the ratio between the maximum possible value of the objective function and the minimum possible value of the objective function converges to one. We also show that the expected number of demand points that are a local minimum is approximately one when there are a large number of demand points. Some computational experiments are presented.     

区域劳动力结构演进的随机模型及分析

采用具有吸收态的Markov过程刻画劳动力流动转移这一随机过程,利用劳动力的转移概率,得到了劳动力个体转移到各个产业间的平均工作时间及方差;同时也给出了在整个生产活动中劳动力个体的工作时间总和的均值及方差,本文也推导了劳动力个体在整个生产活动中创造的地区生产值分布,并由此给出地区生产总值计算方法．本文最后给出了一个数值计算实例．     

随机交通网络渐近连通可靠性分析

应用原有拓扑法获得城市交通网络的拓扑结构图,利用对偶拓扑法得到交通网络的对偶图,建立交通网络的随机网络模型。定义交通网络的渐近连通可靠性,得到路段连通可靠性、路网规模及整个路网连通可靠性之间的定量关系,结合随机图论、大数定律、渐近方法等证明所得结论;通过实例说明结论的应用价值。