Managing Reforms on a Large Scale: What Role for OR/MS?

In this paper evidence is presented regarding the degree to which social reforms have been systematically managed by the Public Sector in Greece between 1975-1992. The findings reported here concur with the findings of others that, by and large, in developing countries, important social reforms tend not to be systematically handled. A twofold explanation is advanced for what seems to be an inverse relationship between the importance of social reforms and the use of OR/MS techniques for their management. First, the subsidiary role of OR/MS techniques in both developing and developed countries is partly due to the conflict-ridden and complex nature of important social reforms, which are not as amenable to systematic analysis as small-scale reforms. It is also partly due to the competitive nature of liberal democracies which compels governments to use social policies not only in a problem-solving mode but also in a tactical mode. Secondly, the low degrees of bureaucratization and rationalization that characterize developing countries, in particular, account for seeing social reforms not so much as manifestations of rational calculation designed to solve problems but as political tools in the service of their masters. It is concluded that OR/MS may be useful in developing countries not so much for its techniques as for its ideology; not for what it is but for what it stands for.     

Further Areas for O.R. Modelling in Industry

This paper sets out the case for OR workers embarking on the construction of models of wider scope than has been traditional. Changing industrial conditions emphasize the need to include the social costs of absenteeism, high labour turnover, training and indifferent quality in the evaluation of new projects, as well as the influence on productivity of these factors, and, more especially, of the means devised to overcome them. New criteria of effectiveness are required.A plea is made for OR to be involved in model building of the new patterns of industrial organization; such models could help the uncommitted countries to explore the alternatives at factory and union levels. A comprehensive model would therefore need also to quantify the effect of alternative union structures and strategies on industrial output and on the living standards of the workers.Quantification presents formidable difficulties but to avoid such problems would condemn OR to a role of perpetual sub-optimization.     

OR in developing countries: A review

The relevance of Operational Research (OR) in developing countries has increasingly engaged the attention of operational researchers in both the industrialised and less developed countries over the last 50 years. With this, there has been a considerable amount of interest in the potential for using OR in developing countries. One sign of this is the emergence of a number of initiatives to promote OR in developing countries and the number of new societies for OR that have emerged from the developing world. This paper is an attempt at providing an overall picture of the state of OR in the developing countries. In particular, it will look at the coverage in terms of countries and methods. It will also highlight the contribution OR is making towards the theme of poverty, the reduction of which is regarded as the key focus of development policy interventions as reflected in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).     

A Linear Goal-Programming Model for Public-Sector Project Selection

This paper outlines a generalized public-sector project selection model using linear goal programming and demonstrates its application using data from the energy-based sector in Trinidad and Tobago, a small developing country in the Caribbean. The decision maker's influence on the project portfolio selected is demonstrated by varying parameters, such as the priority structure and the level of availability of key resources. Goal programming emerges as a powerful tool available for use by public-sector planners in developing countries faced with the challenge of formulating an appropriate public-sector investment programme.     

Economists and Operational Research

The academic background of OR scientists is overwhelmingly in science, engineering and mathematics. This paper argues that economics graduates should be recruited into the profession in far greater numbers than at present. The contribution to OR of a scientific training is compared with the value of a background in economics, in terms both of project work undertaken and of research methodology.     

Practical aspects associated with location planning for maternal and perinatal assistance in Brazil

A study has been carried out aimed at reducing perinatal mortality in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro through a better distribution of health care facilities. The algorithmic aspects are detailed elsewhere and here the emphasis is on practical issues and difficulties encountered. A 3-level hierarchical model was developed. Both uncapacitated and capacitated versions are briefly described together with some results based on actual data. The project brought to light many contradictions between OR theory and practice in developing countries and, unfortunately, the models developed were not implemented by the municipality health authorities. Possible reasons for this outcome are analysed.     

Is There a Place in OR for Intelligent Tutoring Systems?

Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) have recently found a wide range of potential applications across a multitude of disciplines and subject areas. This paper investigates the suitability and feasibility of developing ITS in the general context of OR as well as in a specific OR activity, simulation. It also examines how a current teaching aid for simulation model debugging can be transformed into an ITS and proposes a specification for the transformation process. The paper concludes that ITS could be useful in OR either for use as prime training systems or integrated in existing OR teaching packages. However, the field of ITS is in its infancy and development efforts are likely to be labour-intensive.     

R&D投资规模的统计规律性研究

徐士钰．Ｒ＆Ｄ投资规模的统计规律性研究．数理统计与管理，１９９８，１７（３），３１～３６．本文应用国家工业化发展阶段理论［１］及基于Ｒ＆Ｄ投资规模须和国家工业化发展水平的需要和可能相适应的认识，把所述发达国家和部分先进的发展中国家在不同工业化发展阶段上Ｒ＆Ｄ投资规模的变化过程，都看成是某一非平稳随机过程的一个实现（样本），并用皮尔（Ｐｅａｒｌ）生长曲线模型近似描述该非平稳随机过程均值的变化规律，结果与现实情况符合程度较高，本文揭示的Ｒ＆Ｄ投资规模的这一统计规律，对于发展中国家及我国在制订宏观科技投资政策时，具有较高的参考价值     

A Foreign Exchange Allocation Algorithm for the Acquisition of Key Spare Parts and Supplies in a Developing Country

Most developing countries are severely constrained by the size of their foreign exchange reserve necessary for the purchase on the international market of certain key items to be employed in their industries, including the export sectors that are responsible for generating the foreign exchange in the first place. The scarcity of this foreign exchange creates enormous problems for these countries. To cope with this dilemma, certain countries resort to all kinds of gambles and approaches that may not be defensible. A rational basis for the allocation of this scarce resource is described in this article. It consists primarily of two components. The first part deals with an optimal strategy for the identification of key items through a criticality assignment routine. The second relates to the algorithm for allocating foreign exchange to a pool of critical items to maximize the returns from such an allocation. The case study is Guyana, a developing country in South America.     

国际资本结构动态决定因素的实证研究——基于制造业上市公司的面板数据

选取12个国家地区制造业上市公司2004-2008年的公司特征数据和国家宏观经济指标,研究国际间资本结构动态决定的宏观与微观因素的协整作用关系.主要发现有:一是发达国家对于现代资本结构理论假设条件和关系诠释比发展中国家更为贴近,发展中国家公司特征因素与目标资本结构的关系异象根源于特定经济制度背景;二是克服截面数据POOL回归分析法忽视国别差异因素的缺陷,通过国别哑变量和沃尔德F统计量检验得出,不同国家的公司资本结构微观特征决定因素存在定量上的差异;三是选用能够克服异方差问题的国别哑变量系数标准化为权重的加权最小二乘法回归表明,国家宏观经济法律因素直接或者通过公司特征指标间接作用于国际资本结构决策.     

A case study of a batch manufacturing plant simulation

This paper shows how a successful simulation model of a batch manufacturing plant was developed by an OR team working in conjunction with their clients. A decision was needed on the design of a multi-product, multi-stage, multi-item plant that would meet sales forecasts for the next five years. The background to the Plant and the project are discussed and the development of the simulation model is shown. The results from the model are displayed, together with other implementation issues. Major learning points from the study are highlighted.     

Towards user-friendly OR: a Chinese experience

In contemporary China, user-friendliness has become not only a necessity for the success of OR projects but also a must for the survival of OR workers. This paper presents an approach that, based upon insights from Chinese thought as well as OR/MS experience in the Chinese context since the 1950s, can be useful for improving user-friendliness in the OR process. The paper also reports a real-world project in which OR workers pursue the user-friendliness of their work under the guidance of these insights and approach. A cultural analysis suggests that, while user-friendly OR is a universal concern, the Eastern and Western ways of tackling the issue appear different. The paper concludes that, in reality, Chinese OR workers must enhance their vision and skills so as to solve sociotechnical problems with diverse methods and do so in a user-friendly manner.     

An analysis of neighborhood functions on generic solution spaces

The effectiveness of local search algorithms on discrete optimization problems is influenced by the choice of the neighborhood function. A neighborhood function that results in all local minima being global minima is said to have zero L-locals. A polynomially sized neighborhood function with zero L-locals would ensure that at each iteration, a local search algorithm would be able to find an improving solution or conclude that the current solution is a global minimum. This paper presents a recursive relationship for computing the number of neighborhood functions over a generic solution space that results in zero L-locals. Expressions are also given for the number of tree neighborhood functions with zero L-locals. These results provide a first step towards developing expressions that are applicable to discrete optimization problems, as well as providing results that add to the collection of solved graphical enumeration problems.     

The Bangladesh grain model

Determining the “optimal” number, size, location and design of grain storage facilities in a developing country is a complex problem with significant health, social, political, demographic and financial implications. Formulating and “solving” such a problem requires the consideration not only of average measures of demand (e.g. minimum per capita requirements), supply and costs, but of population movements, rationing systems, developments in domestic production due to new methods and fertilizers, severe limitations in foreign currency, the infra-structure of the transportation system, improvements in vermin control and many other factors which are most often of but minor importance in corresponding logistic studies in more developed countries. Furthermore, in comparison to more developed countries, there is a dearth of reasonably detailed and accurate historical data to say nothing of relevant prognoses.The following case study describes how such a nationwide logistics problem was tackled in Bangladesh. Although it leads up to a discussion of a solution procedure based upon the solution of rather large-scale mixed integer programming problems, the article is primarily intended for a target audience of OR practioners, economic planners and decision makers involved in operational planning for developing countries.     

Future mathematics teachers’ professional knowledge of elementary mathematics from an advanced standpoint

This paper reports a joint research project by researchers from three countries on an international comparative study that examines the professional knowledge of prospective mathematics teachers in elementary mathematics from an advanced standpoint. For this study, mathematical problems on various topics of elementary mathematical content were developed. Using this instrument, the mathematical knowledge of future teachers from Germany, Hong Kong, China (Hangzhou) and South Korea was measured empirically. The paper presents the design of the study, and also results are discussed. The results show that there are systematic differences among the participating countries; for example, the Korean future teachers outperform their counterparts in other countries. A more detailed analysis of the results suggests that the future teachers often do not seem to be able to link school and university knowledge systematically and cannot achieve the crucial “advanced standpoint” from the teacher training programme.     

The Effectiveness of Substituting Locally Available Materials in Teaching Chemistry in Nigeria: A Case for Science Education in Developing Countries

This article investigates the effectiveness of improvising locally available materials for teaching chemistry in Nigeria, as a case for a culture of improvisation for teaching the sciences in developing countries. The scarcity and cost of imported materials for teaching science has remained a major challenge to teaching sciences in developing countries, and the fact that many teachers from developing countries tend to wait for these imported materials before they can teach continues to present a set‐back for science education in many non‐Western nations. In this experimental study, second year students in 3 Nigerian Senior Secondary schools in the state of Lagos, Nigeria, were sampled to determine whether there will be a significant difference in their performance when taught using imported materials compared to when taught using local substitutes. The study reveals that whereas their attitudes towards local materials may not be as positive as their attitudes towards imported materials, their performances did not differ when taught with either, as long as they were unaware of which material was local or imported. The result of this study proved that science education will flourish if teachers in Nigeria, and probably other developing countries, can begin to improvise local materials for science instruction.     

On the Nature of OR — Entering the Fray

In 1980 a seminar of operational researchers and practitioners from a variety of different countries concluded that there was a remarkable consensus about the way that the process of operational research and systems analysis should be understood and practised. Since then the development of new methods has continued apace, stimulated by interaction with the social sciences and paradigms other than natural science. This paper enters the debate, started in this journal, about the nature of OR's status as science or technology. It recognizes the historic claims of science on OR, but it suggests that for ‘private’ consumption, technology will prove more fruitful, and for ‘public’ consumption practitioners will increasingly adopt the label ‘consultant’. Ackoff's original six-step method of OR is updated to reflect current OR practice. The process suggested acknowledges the importance of context, socio-political factors and the growing role of facilitation.     

Potential Applications of OR in Developing Countries—A Generalization from Botswana

Generalizing from experience in Botswana, the paper considers the role which OR can play in the development process in developing countries. It is argued that sophisticated techniques on tactical problems are unlikely to repay the research cost involved, while whole economy models, although interesting, are not operational. Nevertheless, OR could contribute to development by building various types of simple logical models, to demonstrate logical relations, and to serve in untangling decision options.     

Due Date-Based Metrics for Activity Importance in Stochastic Activity Networks

A metric pair for assessing the importance of activities in stochastic activity networks based on completing a project on time (or reaching other project milestones) is presented. The metric pair is recommended as a supplement to other metrics of activity importance that have been suggested for use with Monte Carlo simulation. The differences in behavior of the various metrics are analyzed to help understand the additional types of insights that would be available by including the new metrics in simulation-based analyses.