Circumstantial power: Optimal persuadable voters

Let us suppose that certain committee is going to decide, using some fixed voting rules, either to accept or to reject a proposal that affects your interests. From your perception about each voter’s position, you can make an a priori estimation of the probability of the proposal being accepted. Wishing to increase this probability of acceptance before the votes are cast, assume further that you are able to convince (at least) one voter to improve his/her perception in favor of the proposal. The question is: which voters should be persuaded in order to get the highest possible increase in the probability of acceptance? In other words, which are the optimal persuadable voters? To answer this question a measure of “circumstantial power” is considered in this paper, which is useful to identify optimal persuadable voters. Three preorderings in the set of voters, based on the voting rules, are defined and they are used for finding optimal persuadable voters, even in the case that only a qualitative ranking of each voter’s inclination for the proposal has been made.     

Preference aggregation and DEA: An analysis of the methods proposed to discriminate efficient candidates

There are different ways to allow the voters to express their preferences on a set of candidates. In ranked voting systems, each voter selects a subset of the candidates and ranks them in order of preference. A well-known class of these voting systems are scoring rules, where fixed scores are assigned to the different ranks and the candidates with the highest score are the winners. One of the most important issues in this context is the choice of the scoring vector, since the winning candidate can vary according to the scores used. To avoid this problem, Cook and Kress [W.D. Cook, M. Kress, A data envelopment model for aggregating preference rankings, Management Science 36 (11) (1990) 1302–1310], using a DEA/AR model, proposed to assess each candidate with the most favorable scoring vector for him/her. However, the use of this procedure often causes several candidates to be efficient, i.e., they achieve the maximum score. For this reason, several methods to discriminate among efficient candidates have been proposed. The aim of this paper is to analyze and show some drawbacks of these methods.     

Equilibrium and effectiveness of two-parameter scoring rules

We study a cardinal model of voting with three alternatives where voters’ von Neumann Morgenstern utilities are private information. We consider voting protocols given by two-parameter scoring rules, as introduced by Myerson (2002). For these voting rules, we show that all symmetric Bayes Nash equilibria are sincere, and have a very specific form. These equilibria are unique for a wide range of model parameters, and we can therefore compare the equilibrium performance of different rules. Computational results regarding the effectiveness of different scoring rules (where effectiveness is captured by a modification of the effectiveness measure proposed in Weber, 1978) suggest that those which most effectively represent voters’ preferences allow for the expression of preference intensity, in contrast to more commonly used rules such as the plurality rule, and the Borda Count. While approval voting allows for the expression of preference intensity, it does not maximize effectiveness as it fails to unambiguously convey voters’ ordinal preference rankings.     

On the inverse power index problem

Weighted voting games are frequently used in decision making. Each voter has a weight and a proposal is accepted if the weight sum of the supporting voters exceeds a quota. One line of research is the efficient computation of so-called power indices measuring the influence of a voter. We treat the inverse problem: Given an influence vector and a power index, determine a weighted voting game such that the distribution of influence among the voters is as close as possible to the given target value. We present exact algorithms and computational results for the Shapley–Shubik and the (normalized) Banzhaf power index.     

Complexity of computing median linear orders and variants

Given a finite set X and a collection Π of linear orders defined on X, computing a median linear order (Condorcet-Kemenyʼs problem) consists in determining a linear order minimizing the remoteness from Π. This remoteness is based on the symmetric distance, and measures the number of disagreements between O and Π. In the context of voting theory, X can be considered as a set of candidates and the linear orders of Π as the preferences of voters, while a linear order minimizing the remoteness from Π can be adopted as the collective ranking of the candidates with respect to the votersʼ opinions. This paper studies the complexity of this problem and of several variants of it: computing a median order, computing a winner according to this method, checking that a given candidate is a winner and so on. We try to locate these problems inside the polynomial hierarchy.     

Choice from a Three-Element Set: Some Lessons of the 2000 Presidential Campaign in the United States

We consider the behavior of four choice rules—plurality voting, approval voting, Borda count, and self-consistent choice—when applied to choose the best option from a three-element set. It is assumed that the two main options are preferred by a large majority of the voters, while the third option gets a very small number of votes and influences the election outcome only when the two main options receive a close number of votes. When used to rate the main options, Borda count and self-consistent choice contain terms that allow both for the strength of preferences of the voters and the rating of the main candidates by voters who vote for the third option. In this way, it becomes possible to determine more reliably the winner when plurality voting or approval voting produce close results.     

Optimal bounds for the no-show paradox via SAT solving

One of the most important desirable properties in social choice theory is Condorcet-consistency, which requires that a voting rule should return an alternative that is preferred to any other alternative by some majority of voters. Another desirable property is participation, which requires that no voter should be worse off by joining an electorate. A seminal result by Moulin (1988) has shown that Condorcet-consistency and participation are incompatible whenever there are at least 4 alternatives and 25 voters. We leverage SAT solving to obtain an elegant human-readable proof of Moulin’s result that requires only 12 voters. Moreover, the SAT solver is able to construct a Condorcet-consistent voting rule that satisfies participation as well as a number of other desirable properties for up to 11 voters, proving the optimality of the above bound. We also obtain tight results for set-valued and probabilistic voting rules, which complement and significantly improve existing theorems.     

A Power Index in Weighted Voting Systems

We examine the properties of a new method for constructing the power index in voting systems where voters have unequal influence. A system of equations derived in this study produces the sought index by optimal approximation of the original voting system with another system that allows for the weights of the voters. The new index is applied to analyze the known paradoxes of committee voting theory.     

Properties of voting with veto power

The article investigates a game-theoretical model with veto power in application to the election of the chairman of the board in a corporation. Alternative voting rules are considered, the most interesting being open voting in a specified order. Conditions are determined when voter 1 can ensure the election of his candidate. A complete solution is obtained for three voters, both in the case of strict preferences and in the case when the preferences of voters 2 and 3 are incompletely defined (contain an uncertainty). The latter case is particularly relevant because it arises for several decision-making rules and is an inseparable part of the real-life election process, when the voters represent several interest groups.     

The golden number and Fibonacci sequences in the design of voting structures

Some distinguished types of voters, as vetoes, passers or nulls, as well as some others, play a significant role in voting systems because they are either the most powerful or the least powerful voters in the game independently of the measure used to evaluate power. In this paper we are concerned with the design of voting systems with at least one type of these extreme voters and with few types of equivalent voters. With this purpose in mind we enumerate these special classes of games and find out that its number always follows a Fibonacci sequence with smooth polynomial variations. As a consequence we find several families of games with the same asymptotic exponential behavior except for a multiplicative factor which is the golden number or its square. From a more general point of view, our studies are related with the design of voting structures with a predetermined importance ranking.     

Adaptive,Delayed-Acceptance MCMC for Targets With Expensive Likelihoods

When conducting Bayesian inference, delayed-acceptance (DA) Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithms and DA pseudo-marginal MH algorithms can be applied when it is computationally expensive to calculate the true posterior or an unbiased estimate thereof, but a computationally cheap approximation is available. A first accept-reject stage is applied, with the cheap approximation substituted for the true posterior in the MH acceptance ratio. Only for those proposals that pass through the first stage is the computationally expensive true posterior (or unbiased estimate thereof) evaluated, with a second accept-reject stage ensuring that detailed balance is satisfied with respect to the intended true posterior. In some scenarios, there is no obvious computationally cheap approximation. A weighted average of previous evaluations of the computationally expensive posterior provides a generic approximation to the posterior. If only the k-nearest neighbors have nonzero weights then evaluation of the approximate posterior can be made computationally cheap provided that the points at which the posterior has been evaluated are stored in a multi-dimensional binary tree, known as a KD-tree. The contents of the KD-tree are potentially updated after every computationally intensive evaluation. The resulting adaptive, delayed-acceptance [pseudo-marginal] Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is justified both theoretically and empirically. Guidance on tuning parameters is provided and the methodology is applied to a discretely observed Markov jump process characterizing predator–prey interactions and an ODE system describing the dynamics of an autoregulatory gene network. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Performance of Ensemble Kalman Filters in Large Dimensions

Contemporary data assimilation often involves more than a million prediction variables. Ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have been developed by geoscientists. They are successful indispensable tools in science and engineering, because they allow for computationally cheap low‐ensemble‐state approximation for extremely large‐dimensional turbulent dynamical systems. The practical finite ensemble filters like EnKF necessarily involve modifications such as covariance inflation and localization, and it is a genuine mystery why they perform so well with small ensemble sizes in large dimensions. This paper provides the first rigorous stochastic analysis of the accuracy and covariance fidelity of EnKF in the practical regime where the ensemble size is much smaller than the large ambient dimension for EnKFs with random coefficients. A challenging issue overcome here is that EnKF in huge dimensions introduces unavoidable bias and model errors that need to be controlled and estimated. © 2017 the Authors. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics is published by the Courant Institute of Mathematics and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The impact of voters’ preference diversity on the probability of some electoral outcomes

Voting rules are known to exhibit various paradoxical or problematic behaviors, typically in the form of their failure to meet the Condorcet criterion or in their vulnerability to strategic voting. Our basic premise is that a decrease in the number of coalitions of voters that exist with similar preference rankings should generally lead to a reduced propensity of voting rules to yield undesired results. Surprisingly enough, conclusions that are reported by Felsenthal et al. (1990) in an early study do not corroborate this intuition. This study reconsiders and extends the Felsenthal et al. analysis by using a modified Impartial Anonymous Culture (IAC) model. It turns out that the results obtained with this probabilistic assumption are much more consistent with the stated intuitive premise.     

Comparing influence theories in voting games under locally generated measures of dissatisfaction

The Isbell desirability relation (I), the Shapley?CShubik index (SS) and the Banzhaf?CColeman index (BC) are power theories that grasp the notion of individual influence in a yes?Cno voting rule. Also, a yes?Cno voting rule is often used as a tool for aggregating individual preferences over any given finite set of alternatives into a collective preference. In this second context, Diffo Lambo and Moulen (DM) have introduced a power relation which ranks the voters with respect to how ably they influence the collective preference. However, DM relies on the metric d that measures closeness between preference relations. Our concern in this work is: do I, SS, BC and DM agree when the same yes?Cno voting rule is the basis for collective decision making? We provide a concrete and intuitive class of metrics called locally generated (LG). We give a characterization of the LG metrics d for which I, SS, BC and DM agree on ranking the voters.     

The Banzhaf power index for political games

The Banzhaf index of a voting game is a measure of a priori power of the voters. The model on which the index is based treats the voters symmetrically, i.e. the ideology, outlook, etc., of the voters influencing their voting behavior is ignored. Here we present a nonsymmetric generalization of the Banzhaf index in which the ideology of the voters affecting their voting behavior is taken into account. A model of ideologies and issues is presented. The conditions under which our model gives the Shapley-Shubik index (another index of a priori power of the voters) are given. Finally several examples are presented and some qualitative results are given for straight majority and pure bargaining games.     

An experimental study of voting rules and polls in three-candidate elections

We report the results of elections conducted in a laboratory setting, modelled on a threecandidate example due to Borda. By paying subjects conditionally on election outcomes, we create electorates with (publicly) known preferences. We compare the results of experiments with and without non-binding pre-election polls under plurality rule, approval voting, and Borda rule. We also refer to a theory of voting “equilibria,” which makes sharp predictions concerning individual voter behavior and election outcomes. We find that Condorcet losers occasionally win regardless of the voting rule or presence of polls. Duverger's law (which asserts the predominance of two candidates) appears to hold under plurality rule, but close three-way races often arise under approval voting and Borda rule. Voters appear to poll and vote strategically. In elections, voters usually cast votes that are consistent with some strategic equilibrium. By the end of an election series, most votes are consistent with a single equilibrium, although that equilibrium varies by experimental group and voting rule.     

A Fast Algorithm for S-Regression Estimates

Equivariant high-breakdown point regression estimates are computationally expensive, and the corresponding algorithms become unfeasible for moderately large number of regressors. One important advance to improve the computational speed of one such estimator is the fast-LTS algorithm. This article proposes an analogous algorithm for computing S-estimates. The new algorithm, that we call “fast-S”, is also based on a “local improvement” step of the resampling initial candidates. This allows for a substantial reduction of the number of candidates required to obtain a good approximation to the optimal solution. We performed a simulation study which shows that S-estimators computed with the fast-S algorithm compare favorably to the LTS-estimators computed with the fast-LTS algorithm.     

A core of voting games with improved foresight

This paper considers voting situations in which the vote takes place iteratively. If a coalition replaces the status quo a with a contestant b, then b becomes the new status quo, and the vote goes on until a candidate is reached that no winning coalition is willing to replace. It is well known that the core, that is, the set of undominated alternatives, may be empty. To alleviate this problem, Rubinstein [Rubinstein, A., 1980. Stability of decision systems under majority rule. Journal of Economic Theory 23, 150–159] assumes that voters look forward one vote before deciding to replace an alternative by a new one. They will not do so if the new status quo is going to be replaced by a third that is less interesting than the first. The stability set, that is, the set of undominated alternatives under this behavior, is always non-empty when preferences are strict. However, this is not necessarily the case when voters’ indifference is allowed. Le Breton and Salles [Le Breton, M., Salles, M., 1990. The stability set of voting games: Classification and generecity results. International Journal of Game Theory 19, 111–127], Li [Li, S., 1993. Stability of voting games. Social Choice and Welfare 10, 51–56] and Martin [Martin, M., 1998. Quota games and stability set of order d. Economic Letters 59, 145–151] extend the sophistication of the voters by having them look d votes forward along the iterative process. For d sufficiently large, the resulting set of undominated alternatives is always non-empty even if indifference is allowed. We show that it may be unduly large. Next, by assuming that other voters along a chain of votes are also rational, that is, they also look forward to make sure that the votes taking place later on will not lead to a worst issue for them, we are able to reduce the size of this set while insuring its non-emptiness. Finally, we show that a vote with sufficient foresight satisfies a no-regret property, contrarily to the classical core and the stability set.     

Estimating the winning chances of a solution suggested by the first player under conditions of voting by veto

This work studies voting according to the veto model used by a board of directors to choose between several ways of development of a corporation. Several rules for choosing are considered, including the possibility of a certain player determining the order of the other players’ moves. The specified task is to find the most advantageous preferences of the voters from the viewpoint of the player who makes his choice first. Of special interest is a situation in which one of the players predominates and can determine the order of the other voters’ moves. The problem is solved for three players both in a case of strict preferences and in a case where the voters decide between several equally preferable ways of developing the corporation.     

Elections with limited information: A multidimensional model

We develop a game-theoretic model of two-candidate competition over a multidimensional policy space, where the participants have incomplete information about the preferences and strategy choices of other participants. The players consist of the voters and the candidates. Voters are partitioned into two classes, depending on the information they observe. Informed voters observe candidate strategy choices while uninformed voters do not. All players (voters and candidates alike) observe contemporaneous poll data broken-down by various subgroups of the population.The results of the paper give conditions on the number and distribution of the informed and uninformed voters which are sufficient to guarantee that any equilibrium (or voter equilibrium) extracts all information.