Extended solvent-contact model approach to blind SAMPL5 prediction challenge for the distribution coefficients of drug-like molecules

The performance of the extended solvent-contact model has been addressed in the SAMPL5 blind prediction challenge for distribution coefficient (LogD) of drug-like molecules with respect to the cyclohexane/water partitioning system. All the atomic parameters defined for 41 atom types in the solvation free energy function were optimized by operating a standard genetic algorithm with respect to water and cyclohexane solvents. In the parameterizations for cyclohexane, the experimental solvation free energy (ΔG _sol ) data of 15 molecules for 1-octanol were combined with those of 77 molecules for cyclohexane to construct a training set because ΔG _sol values of the former were unavailable for cyclohexane in publicly accessible databases. Using this hybrid training set, we established the LogD prediction model with the correlation coefficient (R), average error (AE), and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.55, 1.53, and 3.03, respectively, for the comparison of experimental and computational results for 53 SAMPL5 molecules. The modest accuracy in LogD prediction could be attributed to the incomplete optimization of atomic solvation parameters for cyclohexane. With respect to 31 SAMPL5 molecules containing the atom types for which experimental reference data for ΔG _sol were available for both water and cyclohexane, the accuracy in LogD prediction increased remarkably with the R, AE, and RMSE values of 0.82, 0.89, and 1.60, respectively. This significant enhancement in performance stemmed from the better optimization of atomic solvation parameters by limiting the element of training set to the molecules with experimental ΔG _sol data for cyclohexane. Due to the simplicity in model building and to low computational cost for parameterizations, the extended solvent-contact model is anticipated to serve as a valuable computational tool for LogD prediction upon the enrichment of experimental ΔG _sol data for organic solvents.     

Alchemical prediction of hydration free energies for SAMPL

Hydration free energy calculations have become important tests of force fields. Alchemical free energy calculations based on molecular dynamics simulations provide a rigorous way to calculate these free energies for a particular force field, given sufficient sampling. Here, we report results of alchemical hydration free energy calculations for the set of small molecules comprising the 2011 Statistical Assessment of Modeling of Proteins and Ligands challenge. Our calculations are largely based on the Generalized Amber Force Field with several different charge models, and we achieved RMS errors in the 1.4-2.2 kcal/mol range depending on charge model, marginally higher than what we typically observed in previous studies (Mobley et al. in J Phys Chem B 111(9):2242-2254, 2007, J Chem Theory Comput 5(2):350-358, 2009, J Phys Chem B 115:1329-1332, 2011; Nicholls et al. in J Med Chem 51:769-779, 2008; Klimovich and Mobley in J Comput Aided Mol Design 24(4):307-316, 2010). The test set consists of ethane, biphenyl, and a dibenzyl dioxin, as well as a series of chlorinated derivatives of each. We found that, for this set, using high-quality partial charges from MP2/cc-PVTZ SCRF RESP fits provided marginally improved agreement with experiment over using AM1-BCC partial charges as we have more typically done, in keeping with our recent findings (Mobley et al. in J Phys Chem B 115:1329-1332, 2011). Switching to OPLS Lennard-Jones parameters with AM1-BCC charges also improves agreement with experiment. We also find a number of chemical trends within each molecular series which we can explain, but there are also some surprises, including some that are captured by the calculations and some that are not.     

Fast prediction of hydration free energies for SAMPL4 blind test from a classical density functional theory

We report the performance of a classical density functional theory (CDFT) in the competition for the solvation free-energy category of the SAMPL4 blind prediction event. The theoretical calculations were carried out with the TIP3P water model and different combinations of solute configurations and molecular force fields. In comparison with the experimental data, the blind test yields an average unsigned error of 2.38 kcal/mol and the root mean square deviation of 2.99 kcal/mol. Whereas these numbers are significantly larger than the best results from explicit-solvent MD simulations, we find that the theoretical performance is sensitive to both the molecular force fields and solute configurations and that a comparable level of accuracy can be achieved by a judicious selection of the solute configurations and the force-field parameters. Most importantly, CDFT reduces the computational cost of MD simulation by almost 3 orders of magnitude, making it very attractive for large-scale hydration free-energy calculations (e.g., screening the aqueous solubility of drug-like molecules).     

Predicting hydration free energies with chemical accuracy: the SAMPL4 challenge

An implicit solvent model described by a non-simple dielectric medium is used for the prediction of hydration free energies on the dataset of 47 molecules in the SAMPL4 challenge. The solute is represented by a minimal parameter set model based on a new all atom force-field, named the liquid simulation force-field. The importance of a first solvation shell correction to the hydration free energy prediction is discussed and two different approaches are introduced to address it: either with an empirical correction to a few functional groups (alcohol, ether, ester, amines and aromatic nitrogen), or an ab initio correction based on the formation of a solute/explicit water complex. Both approaches give equally good predictions with an average unsigned error <1 kcal/mol. Chemical accuracy is obtained.     

Blind prediction of solvation free energies from the SAMPL4 challenge

Here, we give an overview of the small molecule hydration portion of the SAMPL4 challenge, which focused on predicting hydration free energies for a series of 47 small molecules. These gas-to-water transfer free energies have in the past proven a valuable test of a variety of computational methods and force fields. Here, in contrast to some previous SAMPL challenges, we find a relatively wide range of methods perform quite well on this test set, with RMS errors in the 1.2 kcal/mol range for several of the best performing methods. Top-performers included a quantum mechanical approach with continuum solvent models and functional group corrections, alchemical molecular dynamics simulations with a classical all-atom force field, and a single-conformation Poisson–Boltzmann approach. While 1.2 kcal/mol is still a significant error, experimental hydration free energies covered a range of nearly 20 kcal/mol, so methods typically showed substantial predictive power. Here, a substantial new focus was on evaluation of error estimates, as predicting when a computational prediction is reliable versus unreliable has considerable practical value. We found, however, that in many cases errors are substantially underestimated, and that typically little effort has been invested in estimating likely error. We believe this is an important area for further research.     

SAMPL4, a blind challenge for computational solvation free energies: the compounds considered

For the fifth time I have provided a set of solvation energies (1 M gas to 1 M aqueous) for a SAMPL challenge. In this set there are 23 blind compounds and 30 supplementary compounds of related structure to one of the blind sets, but for which the solvation energy is readily available. The best current values of each compound are presented along with complete documentation of the experimental origins of the solvation energies. The calculations needed to go from reported data to solvation energies are presented, with particular attention to aspects which are new to this set. For some compounds the vapor pressures (VP) were reported for the liquid compound, which is solid at room temperature. To correct from VP_{subcooled liquid} to VP_sublimation requires ΔS_fusion, which is only known for mannitol. Estimated values were used for the others, all but one of which were benzene derivatives and expected to have very similar values. The final compound for which ΔS_fusion was estimated was menthol, which melts at 42 °C so that modest errors in ΔS_fusion will have little effect. It was also necessary to look into the effects of including estimated values of ΔCp on this correction. The approximate sizes of the effects of inclusion of ΔCp in the correction from VP_{subcooled liquid} to VP_sublimation were estimated and it was noted that inclusion of ΔCp invariably makes ΔG_S more positive. To extend the set of compounds for which the solvation energy could be calculated we explored the use of boiling point (b.p.) data from Reaxys/Beilstein as a substitute for studies of the VP as a function of temperature. B.p. data are not always reliable so it was necessary to develop a criterion for rejecting outliers. For two compounds (chlorinated guaiacols) it became clear that inclusion represented overreach; for each there were only two independent pressure, temperature points, which is too little for a trustworthy extrapolation. For a number of compounds the extrapolation from lowest temperature at which the VP was reported to 25 °C was long (sometimes over 100°) so that it was necessary to consider whether ΔCp might have significant effects. The problem is that there are no experimental values and possible intramolecular hydrogen bonds make estimation uncertain in some cases. The approximate sizes of the effects of ΔCp were estimated, and it was noted that inclusion of ΔCp in the extrapolation of VP down to room temperature invariably makes ΔGs more negative.     

Predictions of hydration free energies from continuum solvent with solute polarizable models: the SAMPL2 blind challenge

This paper reports the results of our attempt to predict hydration free energies on the SAMPL2 blind challenge dataset. We mostly examine the effects of the solute electrostatic component on the accuracy of the predictions. The usefulness of electronic polarization in predicting hydration free energies is assessed by comparing the Electronic Polarization from Internal Continuum model and the self consistent reaction field IEF-PCM to standard non-polarizable charge models such as RESP and AM1-BCC. We also determine an optimal restraint weight for Dielectric-RESP atomic charges fitting. Statistical analysis of the results could not distinguish the methods from one another. The smallest average unsigned error obtained is 1.9 ± 0.6 kcal/mol (95% confidence level). A class of outliers led us to investigate the importance of the solute–solvent instantaneous induction energy, a missing term in PB continuum models. We estimated values between −1.5 and −6 kcal/mol for a series of halo-benzenes which can explain why some predicted hydration energies of non-polar molecules significantly disagreed with experiment.     

A deep learning approach for the blind logP prediction in SAMPL6 challenge

Water octanol partition coefficient serves as a measure for the lipophilicity of a molecule and is important in the field of drug discovery. A novel method for computational prediction of logarithm of partition coefficient (logP) has been developed using molecular fingerprints and a deep neural network. The machine learning model was trained on a dataset of 12,000 molecules and tested on 2000 molecules. In this article, we present our results for the blind prediction of logP for the SAMPL6 challenge. While the best submission achieved a RMSE of 0.41 logP units, our submission had a RMSE of 0.61 logP units. Overall, we ranked in the top quarter out of the 92 submissions that were made. Our results show that the deep learning model can be used as a fast, accurate and robust method for high throughput prediction of logP of small molecules.     

Prediction of free energies of hydration with COSMO-RS on the SAMPL4 data set

The COSMO-RS method has been used for the prediction of free energies of hydration on a dataset of 47 complex multifunctional compounds considered in the SAMPL4 challenge. Straight application of the COSMOtherm software with the parameterization C21_0108 yields a predictive accuracy of 1.46 kcal/mol root mean square error overall and 1.18 kcal/mol if a single dominant outlier is removed.     

Partition coefficients for the SAMPL5 challenge using transfer free energies

SAMPL challenges (Mobley et al. in J Comput Aided Mol Des 28:135–150, 2014; Skillman in J Comput Aided Mol Des 26:473–474, 2012; Geballe in J Comput Aided Mol Des 24:259–279, 2010; Guthrie in J Phys Chem B 113:4501–4507, 2009) provide excellent opportunities to assess theoretical approaches on new data sets with a goal of gaining greater insight towards protein and ligand modeling. In the SAMPL5 experiment, cyclohexane–water partition coefficients were determined using a vertical solvation scheme in conjunction with the SMD continuum solvent model. Several DFT functionals partnered with correlation consistent basis sets were evaluated for the prediction of the partition coefficients. The approach chosen for the competition, a B3PW91 vertical solvation scheme, yields a mean absolute deviation of 1.9 logP units and performs well at estimating the correct hydrophilicity and hydrophobicity for the full SAMPL5 molecule set.     

The SAMPL2 blind prediction challenge: introduction and overview

The interactions between a molecule and the aqueous environment underpin any process that occurs in solution, from simple chemical reactions to protein–ligand binding to protein aggregation. Fundamental measures of the interaction between molecule and aqueous phase, such as the transfer energy between gas phase and water or the energetic difference between two tautomers of a molecule in solution, remain nontrivial to predict accurately using current computational methods. SAMPL2 represents the third annual blind prediction of transfer energies, and the first time tautomer ratios were included in the challenge. Over 60 sets of predictions were submitted, and each participant also attempted to estimate the error in their predictions, a task that proved difficult for most. The results of this blind assessment of the state of the field for transfer energy and tautomer ratio prediction both indicate where the field is performing well and point out flaws in current methods.     

Prediction of hydration free energies for the SAMPL4 data set with the AMOEBA polarizable force field

Hydration free energy calculations are often used to validate molecular simulation methodologies and molecular mechanics force fields. We use the free-energy perturbation method together with the AMOEBA polarizable force field and the Poltype parametrization protocol to predict the hydration free energies of 52 molecules as part of the SAMPL4 blind challenge. For comparison, similar calculations are performed using the non-polarizable General Amber force field. Against our expectations, the latter force field gives the better results compared to experiment. One possible explanation is the sensitivity of the AMOEBA results to the conformation used for parametrization.     

The SAMPL3 blind prediction challenge: transfer energy overview

Prediction of the free energy of solvation of a small molecule, or its transfer energy, is a necessary step along the path towards calculating the interactions between molecules that occur in an aqueous environment. A set of these transfer energies were gathered from the literature for series of chlorinated molecules with varying numbers of chlorines based on ethane, biphenyl, and dibenzo-p-dioxin. This focused set of molecules were then provided as a blinded challenge to assess the ability of current computational solvation methods to accurately model the interactions between water and increasingly chlorinated compounds. This was presented as part of the SAMPL3 challenge, which represented the fourth iterative blind prediction challenge involving transfer energies. The results of this exercise demonstrate that the field in general has difficulty predicting the transfer energies of more highly chlorinated compounds, and that methods seem to be erring in the same direction.     

Predicting hydration free energies with a hybrid QM/MM approach: an evaluation of implicit and explicit solvation models in SAMPL4

The correct representation of solute-water interactions is essential for the accurate simulation of most biological phenomena. Several highly accurate quantum methods are available to deal with solvation by using both implicit and explicit solvents. So far, however, most evaluations of those methods were based on a single conformation, which neglects solute entropy. Here, we present the first test of a novel approach to determine hydration free energies that uses molecular mechanics (MM) to sample phase space and quantum mechanics (QM) to evaluate the potential energies. Free energies are determined by using re-weighting with the Non-Boltzmann Bennett (NBB) method. In this context, the method is referred to as QM-NBB. Based on snapshots from MM sampling and accounting for their correct Boltzmann weight, it is possible to obtain hydration free energies that incorporate the effect of solute entropy. We evaluate the performance of several QM implicit solvent models, as well as explicit solvent QM/MM for the blind subset of the SAMPL4 hydration free energy challenge. While classical free energy simulations with molecular dynamics give root mean square deviations (RMSD) of 2.8 and 2.3 kcal/mol, the hybrid approach yields an improved RMSD of 1.6 kcal/mol. By selecting an appropriate functional and basis set, the RMSD can be reduced to 1 kcal/mol for calculations based on a single conformation. Results for a selected set of challenging molecules imply that this RMSD can be further reduced by using NBB to reweight MM trajectories with the SMD implicit solvent model.     

Prediction of free energies of hydration with COSMO-RS on the SAMPL3 data set

The COSMO-RS method has been used for the prediction of free energies of hydration on the dataset of 36 chlorinated ethanes, biphenyls and dioxins considered in the SAMPL3 challenge. Straight application of the latest version of the COSMOtherm software yields an overall predictive accuracy of 1.05 kcal/mol (RMSE). The predictions for the chlorinated ethanes and dioxins are much better with 0.40 and 0.49 kcal/mol RMSE, respectively. The predictions for the chlorinated biphenyls show a systematic shift of approximately 1 kcal/mol, but the large RMSE of 1.59 kcal/mol mainly arises from two exceptional outliers. Possible reasons for this observation are discussed.     

Efficient calculation of SAMPL4 hydration free energies using OMEGA,SZYBKI, QUACPAC,and Zap TK

Several submissions for the SAMPL4 hydration free energy set were calculated using OpenEye tools, including many that were among the top performing submissions. All of our best submissions used AM1BCC charges and Poisson–Boltzmann solvation. Three submissions used a single conformer for calculating the hydration free energy and all performed very well with mean unsigned errors ranging from 0.94 to 1.08 kcal/mol. These calculations were very fast, only requiring 0.5–2.0 s per molecule. We observed that our two single-conformer methodologies have different types of failure cases and that these differences could be exploited for determining when the methods are likely to have substantial errors.     

A microsolvation approach to the prediction of the relative enthalpies and free energies of hydration for ammonium ions

Hartree–Fock (HF) and second-order Møller–Plesset (MP2) calculations were used to investigate the structures and thermochemistry of methylammonium–water clusters (Me_4-m NH _m ⁺ (H₂O) _n , m=1–4, n=1–4). Water molecules were treated ab initio and with effective fragment potentials (EFP). In addition to a thorough phase-space search, the importance of basis set, electron correlation, and thermodynamic effects was systematically examined. Cluster structures resulted from hydrogen bond formation between the ammonium group and water molecules; upon saturation of the hydrogen bonding sites of the ammonium group, water molecules entered the second hydration shell. With only four water molecules, the experimental relative enthalpies of hydration were well reproduced at the HF level, while the MP2 relative free energies were in best agreement with experiment. Absolute energies of hydration were calculated using an empirical correction. These results strongly suggest that a HF-based microsolvation approach employing a small number of water molecules can be used to compute relative enthalpies of hydration.     

LogP prediction performance with the SMD solvation model and the M06 density functional family for SAMPL6 blind prediction challenge molecules

This work presents a quantum mechanical model for predicting octanol-water partition coefficients of small protein-kinase inhibitor fragments as part of the SAMPL6 LogP Prediction Challenge. The model calculates solvation free energy differences using the M06-2X functional with SMD implicit solvation and the def2-SVP basis set. This model was identified as dqxk4 in the SAMPL6 Challenge and was the third highest performing model in the physical methods category with 0.49 log Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for predicting the 11 compounds in SAMPL6 blind prediction set. We also collaboratively investigated the use of empirical models to address model deficiencies for halogenated compounds at minimal additional computational cost. A mixed model consisting of the dqxk4 physical and hdpuj empirical models found improved performance at 0.34 log RMSE on the SAMPL6 dataset. This collaborative mixed model approach shows how empirical models can be leveraged to expediently improve performance in chemical spaces that are difficult for ab initio methods to simulate.