Safety Stock Determination with Serially Correlated Demand in a Periodic-Review Inventory System

We consider a periodic-review inventory replenishment model with an order-up-to-R operating doctrine for the case of deterministic lead times and a covariance-stationary stochastic demand process. A method is derived for setting the inventory safety stock to achieve an exact desired stockout probability when the autocovariance function for Gaussian demand is known. Because the method does not require that parametric time-series models be fit to the data, it is easily implemented in practice. Moreover, the method is shown to be asymptotically valid when the autocovariance function of demand is estimated from historical data. The effects on the stockout rate of various levels of autocorrelated demand are demonstrated for situations in which autocorrelation in demand goes undetected or is ignored by the inventory manager. Similarly, the changes to the required level of safety stock are demonstrated for varying levels of autocorrelation.     

An inventory sharing and allocation method for a multi-location service parts logistics network with time-based service levels

We consider a model to allocate stock levels at warehouses in a service parts logistics network. The network is a two-echelon distribution system with one central warehouse with infinite capacity and a number of local warehouses, each facing Poisson demands from geographically dispersed customers. Each local warehouse uses a potentially different base stock policy. The warehouses are collectively required to satisfy time-based service targets: Certain percentages of overall demand need to be satisfied from facilities within specified time windows. These service levels not only depend on the distance between customers and the warehouses, but also depend on the part availabilities at the warehouses. Moreover, the warehouses share their inventory as a way to increase achieved service levels, i.e., when a local warehouse is out of stock, demand is satisfied with an emergency shipment from another close-by warehouse. Observing that the problem of finding minimum-cost stock levels is an integer non-linear program, we develop an implicit enumeration-based method which adapts an existing inventory sharing model from the literature, prioritizes the warehouses for emergency shipments, and makes use of a lower bound. The results show that the proposed inventory sharing strategy results in considerable cost reduction when compared to the no-sharing case and the method is quite efficient for the considered test problems.     

Approximate Stock Formulae for Use in Conjunction with the Assortment Problem

This paper considers the calculation of the total stocks which must be held in order to maintain a given service level when the assortment problem approach of dynamic programming is used to select the standard stock sizes. Approximate formulae are derived to calculate the safety and working stocks for any number of standard sizes, assuming that the value of the demand for each stock size is approximately equal. It is shown that even very large reductions in the number of stock lines do not produce correspondingly large reductions in stock levels.     

Base stock policies for production/inventory problems with uncertain capacity levels

In this paper we consider a single item, stochastic demand production/inventory problem where the maximum amount that can be produced (or ordered) in any given period is assumed to be uncertain. Inventory levels are reviewed periodically. The system operates under a stationary modified base stock policy. The intent of our paper is to present a procedure for computing the optimal base stocl level of this policy under expected average cost per period criterion. This procedure would provide guidance as to the appropriate amount of capacity to store in the form of inventory in the face of stochastic demand and uncertain capacity. In achieving this goal, our main contribution is to establish the analogy between the class of base stock production/inventory policies that operate under demand/capacity uncertainty, and the G/G/1 queues and their associated random walks. We also present example derivations for some important capacity distributions.     

On the (R,s, Q) inventory model when demand is modelled as a compound Bernoulli process

In this paper we present an approximation method to compute the reorder point s in an (R, s, Q) inventory model with a service level restriction. Demand is modelled as a compound Bernoulli process, i.e., with a fixed probability there is positive demand during a time unit; otherwise demand is zero. The demand size and the replenishment leadtime are random variables. It is shown that this kind of modelling is especially suitable for intermittent demand. In this paper we will adapt a method presented by Dunsmuir and Snyder such that the undershoot is not neglected. The reason for this is that for compound demand processes the undershoot has a considerable impact on the performance levels, especially when the probability that demand is zero during the leadtime is high, which is the case when demand is lumpy. Furthermore, the adapted method is used to derive an expression for the expected average physical stock. The quality of both the reorder point and the expected average physical stock, calculated with the method presented in this paper, rum out to be excellent, as has been verified by simulation.     

Periodic control of intermittent demand items: theory and empirical analysis

In this paper we propose a modification to the standard forecasting, periodic order-up-to-level inventory control approach to dealing with intermittent demand items, when the lead-time length is shorter than the average inter-demand interval. In particular, we develop an approach that relies upon the employment of separate estimates of the inter-demand intervals and demand sizes, when demand occurs, directly for stock control purposes rather than first estimating mean demand and then feeding the results in the stock control procedure. The empirical performance of our approach is assessed by means of analysis on a large demand data set from the Royal Air Force (RAF, UK). Our work allows insights to be gained on the interactions between forecasting and stock control as well as on demand categorization-related issues for forecasting and inventory management purposes.     

Reorder level determination with serially-correlated demand

This research analyses the effect of serially-correlated demand on the determination of appropriate reorder levels. While previous research has investigated this effect on the required levels of safety stock, the consequence of autocorrelation on the expected demand during lead time has been ignored. In this paper we examine the determination of accurate reorder levels for first-order autoregressive and moving average demand processes. A numeric analysis is then conducted to evaluate the effect of serial correlation on the service level provided, and indicates that existing approaches of managing serially-correlated demand can result in excessive inventories and shortages for high levels of autocorrelation.     

An examination of the size of orders from customers,their characterisation and the implications for inventory control of slow moving items

This paper examines half a million observations of the size of orders from customers at an electrical wholesaler. It notes: the distribution of the size of customer orders for a single item (stock keeping unit or SKU) is very skewed and resembles a geometric distribution; while the average size of an order is different for different items, for one SKU the mean order size is effectively the same at different branches even when the branches have very different demand rates; across a range of SKUs there is a strong relationship linking the mean and the variance of order size. The general results above are shown to apply to even the slowest movers. This extension is important because for items with intermittent demand the size of customer orders is required to produce an unbiased estimate of demand. Also a knowledge of the distribution of demand is important for setting maximum and minimum stock levels and the scheme employed is described.     

A fuzzy optimization approach for procurement transport operational planning in an automobile supply chain

We consider a real-world automobile supply chain in which a first-tier supplier serves an assembler and determines its procurement transport planning for a second-tier supplier by using the automobile assembler’s demand information, the available capacity of trucks and inventory levels. The proposed fuzzy multi-objective integer linear programming model (FMOILP) improves the transport planning process for material procurement at the first-tier supplier level, which is subject to product groups composed of items that must be ordered together, order lot sizes, fuzzy aspiration levels for inventory and used trucks and uncertain truck maximum available capacities and minimum percentages of demand in stock. Regarding the defuzzification process, we apply two existing methods based on the weighted average method to convert the FMOILP into a crisp MOILP to then apply two different aggregation functions, which we compare, to transform this crisp MOILP into a single objective MILP model. A sensitivity analysis is included to show the impact of the objectives weight vector on the final solutions. The model, based on the full truck load material pick method, provides the quantity of products and number of containers to be loaded per truck and period. An industrial automobile supply chain case study demonstrates the feasibility of applying the proposed model and the solution methodology to a realistic procurement transport planning problem. The results provide lower stock levels and higher occupation of the trucks used to fulfill both demand and minimum inventory requirements than those obtained by the manual spreadsheet-based method.     

Optimal production and rationing policies of a make-to-stock production system with batch demand and backordering

In this paper, we consider the stock rationing problem of a single-item make-to-stock production/inventory system with multiple demand classes. Demand arrives as a Poisson process with a randomly distributed batch size. It is assumed that the batch demand can be partially satisfied. The facility can produce a batch up to a certain capacity at the same time. Production time follows an exponential distribution. We show that the optimal policy is characterized by multiple rationing levels.     

Stock Rationing in a Continuous Review Two-Echelon Inventory Model

In this paper we consider a 1-warehouse, N-retailer inventory system where demand occurs at all locations. We introduce an inventory model which allows us to set different service levels for retailers and direct customer demand at the warehouse. For each retailer a critical level is defined, such that a retailer replenishment order is delivered from warehouse stock if and only if the stock level exceeds this critical level. It is assumed that retailer replenishment orders, which are not satisfied from warehouse stock, are delivered directly from the outside supplier, instead of being backlogged. We present an analytical upper bound on the total cost of the system, and develop a heuristic method to optimize the policy parameters. Numerical experiments indicate that our technique provides a very close approximation of the exact cost. Also, we show that differentiating among the retailers and direct customer demand can yield significant cost reductions.     

Stock optimization for service differentiated demands with fill rate and waiting time requirements

We develop a computationally efficient optimization procedure to optimize stock and rationing levels for a model consisting of a single product with two priority–demand classes, given by mutually independent, stationary, Poisson demand processes. Each priority class has its own service levels requirements, defined by the class-specific fill rate and expected waiting-time levels. Order lead times are independent and identically distributed random variables. This is the first study in this setting to consider both waiting-time constraints along with fill rate requirements.     

Controlling multi-indenture repairable inventories of multiple aircraft parts

This paper presents a model for determining stock levels of repairable items supporting a fleet of commercial aircraft operated by a transportation company in the Philippines. The items are characterised by infrequent demand, high cost and a hierarchical (or indentured) structure. The system has three re-supply sources of serviceable parts, namely, the in-house repair shop, the out-house repair shops, and the suppliers. Non-repairable items are scrapped and replaced with new items on a one-for-one basis. The model considers two levels of indenture represented by modules and components. The objective is to minimise the total expected steady-state annual cost of holding inventories and of aircraft delays. A minimum requirement on module availability is also applied. The formulation is such that the regular discrete optimisers available could not be readily used to solve it. The model is implemented on an illustrative problem, employing an integer search for the item stock levels within a limited range.     

Inventory levels to stop and restart a single machine producing one product

A central problem in production planning is the coordination of the production rate with the inventory level in order to find a suitable compromise between the inventory on hand, the frequency of changes in the production rate and customer service. This paper deals with an one product production/inventory problem with an intermittently operating production facility controlled by inventory levels to shut down and restart production. The demand process is a compound Poisson process and a service level constraint is imposed on the fraction of demand to be met directly from stock on hand. The paper presents a tractable two-moments approximation for the control rule for starting up and shutting down the production.     

On the value of customer information for an independent supplier in a continuous review inventory system

We consider the inventory control problem of an independent supplier in a continuous review system. The supplier faces demand from a single customer who in turn faces Poisson demand and follows a continuous review (R, Q) policy. If no information about the inventory levels at the customer is available, reviews and ordering are usually carried out by the supplier only at points in time when a customer demand occurs. It is common to apply an installation stock reorder point policy. However, as the demand faced by the supplier is not Markovian, this policy can be improved by allowing placement of orders at any point in time. We develop a time delay policy for the supplier, wherein the supplier waits until time t after occurrence of the customer demand to place his next order. If the next customer demand occurs before this time delay, then the supplier places an order immediately. We develop an algorithm to determine the optimal time delay policy. We then evaluate the value of information about the customer’s inventory level. Our numerical study shows that if the supplier were to use the optimal time delay policy instead of the installation stock policy then the value of the customer’s inventory information is not very significant.     

How useful is commonality? Inventory and production decisions to maximize survival probability in start-ups

This paper deals with component commonality in start-up manufacturingfirms. We present a two-product Markov decision model that examinesthe implications of the inventory and production strategiesfor the survival probability of the firm. The advantage of usingcomponent commonality is studied for varying costs, demand correlationsand order replenishment lead times. Optimal policies are derived,and minimum stock levels for survival are obtained. Moreover,we state the conditions under which simplified production decisionscan be made. It is shown that commonality is not only usefulas a way of dealing with demand uncertainty, but that its increaseduse is preferred for strongly substitutable products, and shorterreplenishment lead times.     

On the Effect of Product Variety in Production–Inventory Systems

In this paper, we examine the effect of product variety on inventory costs in a production–inventory system with finite capacity where products are made to stock and share the same manufacturing facility. The facility incurs a setup time whenever it switches from producing one product type to another. The production facility has a finite production rate and stochastic production times. In order to mitigate the effect of setups, products are produced in batches. In contrast to inventory systems with exogenous lead times, we show that inventory costs increase almost linearly in the number of products. More importantly, we show that the rate of increase is sensitive to system parameters including demand and process variability, demand and capacity levels, and setup times. The effect of these parameters can be counterintuitive. For example, we show that the relative increase in cost due to higher product variety is decreasing in demand and process variability. We also show that it is decreasing in expected production time. On the other hand, we find that the relative cost is increasing in expected setup time, setup time variability and aggregate demand rate. Furthermore, we show that the effect of product variety on optimal base stock levels is not monotonic. We use the model to draw several managerial insights regarding the value of variety-reducing strategies such as product consolidation and delayed differentiation.     

Assortment and inventory decisions with multiple quality levels

We consider the assortment and inventory decisions of a retailer under a locational consumer choice model where products can be differentiated both horizontally (e.g., color of a product) and vertically (e.g., quality of a product). The assortment and quantity decisions affect customer choice and, hence, the demand and sales for each product. In this paper, we investigate two different environments where product availability and assortment affect consumer choice and demand in different ways: make-to-order (MTO) and make-to-stock (MTS). In the MTO environment, customers order and purchase their most preferred product; that is, stockouts do not occur. In the MTS model, customers buy their most preferred product if it is in stock or do not buy if it is out of stock. In both environments we find conditions under which it is optimal to carry assortments of only a single quality level. In the MTS case, we show that an assortment of mixed quality levels can be optimal only within a narrow range of parameters.     

Forecasting intermittent demand: a comparative study

Methods for forecasting intermittent demand are compared using a large data set from the UK Royal Air Force. Several important results are found. First, we show that the traditional per period forecast error measures are not appropriate for intermittent demand, even though they are consistently used in the literature. Second, by comparing the ability to approximate target service levels and stock holding implications, we show that Croston's method (and a variant) and Bootstrapping clearly outperform Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing. Third, we show that the performance of Croston and Bootstrapping can be significantly improved by taking into account that an order in a period is triggered by a demand in that period.     

Analysis of Multi-Product Kanban Systems with State-Dependent Setups and Lost Sales

We propose a decomposition-based approximation method that generates fairly accurate estimates for steady-state performance measures of a kanban-controlled production system. The manufacturing facility of this system can process items of several different products. Setup and processing times are assumed to be exponentially distributed. Customers arrive according to mutually independent Poisson processes. A customer whose demand cannot be met from stock leaves the system and satisfies his demand elsewhere (lost sales). The manufacturing facility processes items of a product until a target inventory level given by the number of kanbans has been reached. Then the manufacturing facility is set up for the next product according to a fixed setup sequence if the next product's inventory level is below target. Otherwise, this product is skipped (cyclic-exhaustive processing with state-dependent setups). The manufacturing facility idles when the inventory levels of all products are at their target levels.