Simulation of seismo-ionospheric effects initiated by internal gravity waves

Experimental studies have repeatedly demonstrated that, a few days before a strong earthquake, local increases (sometimes decreases) in the electron density in the ionosphere over the epicentral area emerge. Simulations with the help of the GSM TIP (global self-consistent model “Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Protonosphere”) and UAM (Upper Atmosphere Model) models show that account of local disturbances of the zonal electric fields makes it possible to reproduce the morphology of ionospheric disturbances. However, these model experiments do not explain the formation of such ionospheric features over the epicentral area of the impending earthquake. In this paper, we propose a mechanism for the formation of ionospheric disturbances before strong earthquakes due to propagation and dissipation of small-scale internal gravity waves (IGWs) in the upper atmosphere. Using the GSM TIP model, we calculated the ionospheric parameters with account of small-scale IGWs in the near-epicenter area. It is shown that disturbances in the TEC (total electron content) predicted by calculations are in satisfactory agreement with observations from GPS (Global Position System) satellites before the strong mid-latitude earthquake in Greece on January 8, 2006.     

Earthquake forecast via neutrino tomography

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. An- tineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomog- raphy of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for ν<,e> emitted from a reactor. The case for a ν<,e> beam from a neutrino factory is also investigated, and it is noted that, because of the typically high energy associated with such neutrinos, the oscillation length is too large and the resultant variation is not practically observable. Our conclusion is that with the present reactor facilities and detection techniques, it is still a difficult task to make an earthquake forecast using such a scheme, though it seems to be possible from a theoretical point of view while ignoring some uncertainties. However, with the development of the geology, especially the knowledge about the fault zone, and with the improvement of the detection techniques, etc., there is hope that a medium-term earthquake forecast would be feasible.     

Earthquakes and global electrical circuit

Based on recent experimental and theoretical model results, the role of earthquakes and processes of their preparation as electricity sources in the global electric circuit (GEC) is discussed. In addition to the traditional elements of the GEC, such as thunderstorm currents, ionosphere currents, fair weather currents, and telluric currents, hypothetical seismogenic currents flowing between the faults and the ionosphere are considered. The ionization sources for these currents are presumably the radiation of radioactive gases and the ionization by the electric field of so-called “positive holes” created by the compression of tectonic plates, whereas transportation of electric charges between the Earth and the ionosphere occurs under the action of electric fields and turbulent diffusion (for heavy charged species). Seismogenic currents deliver electric charges into the ionosphere, which give rise to electric fields in it and in the magnetically conjugated region. The drift of magnetized plasma in the ionosphere F2-region and plasmasphere plasma under the action of these fields causes disturbances in the electron density and total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere, which are observed by GPS satellites before strong earthquakes. The typical features of these disturbances (magnitudes, dimensions, stability, nighttime predominance of the relative TEC disturbances, geomagnetic conjugacy) are well reproduced in theoretical model calculations based on the solution of the equation for the electric ionosphere potential with specified seismogenic electric current at the lower boundary of the ionosphere if this current is strong enough (comparable with thunderstorm currents). The feasibility of such seismogenic currents is discussed. It is argued that the TEC disturbances observed before strong earthquakes cannot be explained by neutral atmosphere disturbances. These TEC disturbances can be treated as ionospheric earthquake precursors created by seismogenic GEC disturbances.     

Continuous radon monitoring in soil gas towards earthquake precursory studies in basaltic region

The Koyna-Warna region, near the west coast of India, is well known for reservoir-triggered seismicity. The seismic activity in this region greatly increased following the construction of an artificial reservoir across the Koyna River during the 1960s. A destructive earthquake of M 6.3 occurred on December 10, 1967, and further 19 earthquakes of M>5 have been recorded during the preceding 40 years until 2007. The soil gas radon (²²²Rn) has been studied as an earthquake precursor by continuous monitoring (hourly) at two sites around the Warna reservoir. One site has a multi-sensor probe (installed at three different depths), together with a rainfall recording facility, and another probe is mounted on a hillock at Nivle. During the study period (2005–2007), a total of 11 earthquakes (including 2 aftershocks) of M 4–4.8 were recorded. Most of these events had recorded precursory radon signals. For a given earthquake, the ²²²Rn precursory signatures were recorded at one of the two sites only. Even multiple depth probes showed discordant behaviour in recording temporal Rn variation. Causes of non-concurrence in Rn recording between sites and probes, including the combined effect of site heterogeneity, focal depth, epicentral distance, earthquake magnitude, faults responsible for the earthquake, etc, are discussed.     

人工等离子体云的时间演化

分析了高空中人工等离子体云的时间演化。发现人工等离子体云中电子密度的空间分布存在着指数衰减区和平缓衰减区。等离子体发生器的粒子流密度仅影响指数衰减区,对平缓衰减区没有什么影响。平缓衰减区中的平均电子密度约为中性分子密度的十万分之一。并且可以覆盖较大范围。这些结果对于电磁波与人工等离子体相互作用的研究、导弹和空间飞行器的等离子体隐身研究及人工等离子体发生器的设计有一定的参考价值。     

Investigation of seismicity after the initiation of a Seismic Electric Signal activity until the main shock

The behavior of seismicity in the area candidate to suffer a main shock is investigated after the observation of the Seismic Electric Signal activity until the impending main shock. This is based on the view that the occurrence of earthquakes is a critical phenomenon to which statistical dynamics may be applied. In the present work, analysing the time series of small earthquakes, the concept of natural time chi was used and the results revealed that the approach to criticality itself can be manifested by the probability density function (PDF) of kappa(1) calculated over an appropriate statistical ensemble. Here, kappa(1) is the variance kappa(1)(=-(2)) resulting from the power spectrum of a function defined as Phi(omega)= summation operator(k=1)(N) p(k) exp(iomegachi(k)), where p(k) is the normalized energy of the k-th small earthquake and omega the natural frequency. This PDF exhibits a maximum at kappa(1) asymptotically equal to 0.070 a few days before the main shock. Examples are presented, referring to the magnitude 6 approximately 7 class earthquakes that occurred in Greece.     

Temporal Variation of b Value with Statistical Test in Wenchuan Area,China Prior to the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

The Gutenberg–Richter b value describes the ratio between large and small events. A number of studies have suggested that the b value decreases before large earthquakes. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of the b value of an area along the main rupture zone of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M8.0) prior to the great event. Before estimating b values, we tested the earthquake catalog to make sure that we use the reliable frequency–magnitude distribution by the calculation of MC (completeness of magnitude). We define parameter P (ΔAIC ≧ 2) values to examine the significance level of b-value changes in the temporal variation by combining a boostrap method with Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). The b value in the main rupture zone shows a long-term decrease trend. We then focus on a smaller area where the initial rupture starts. The results show that b values significantly changed about 3 months before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in the initial rupture area, indicating that the b value has a potential capability to monitor and detect precursory phenomena of great earthquakes.     

Ionospheric Disturbance in the Near-Field Area of the Epicenter of the September 25, 2003 Hokkaido Earthquake

A method which we developed for spatio-temporal data processing is employed to yield the source coordinates of the September 25, 2003 Hokkaido earthquake (magnitude 8.3), the switch-on time, and the propagation velocity of the earthquake-induced ionospheric disturbance. Distribution of total electron content (TEC) variations obtained from the GPS sites located in the near-field area of the earthquake epicenter is used for the data analysis. Parameters calculated in this paper are in good agreement with the real location of the earthquake epicenter, the real shock time (seismic data), and the results obtained earlier for ionospheric disturbances due to strong earthquakes. __________ Translated from Izvestiya Vysshikh Uchebnykh Zavedenii, Radiofizika, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 299–313, April 2005.     

Temporal variation of soil gas compositions for earthquake surveillance in Taiwan

The present study is proposed to investigate temporal variations of soil–gas composition in the vicinity of different fault zones in Taiwan. To carry out the investigations, variations of soil–gases compositions were measured at continuous earthquake monitoring stations along Hsincheng and Hsinhua faults in Hsinchu and Tainan areas, respectively. Before selecting a monitoring site, the occurrence of deeper gas emanation was investigated by the soil–gas surveys and followed by continuous monitoring of some selected sites with respect to tectonic activity to check the sensitivity of the sites. Based on the results of long term geochemical monitoring at the established monitoring stations we can divide the studied area in two different tectonic zones. We proposed tectonic based model for earthquake forecasting in Taiwan and tested it for some big earthquakes occurred during observation period i.e. 2009–2010. Based on the anomalous signatures from particular monitoring stations we are in a state to identify the area for impending earthquakes of magnitude ≥5 and we have tested it for some earthquakes which rocked the country during that period. It can be concluded from above results that the stress/strain transmission for a particular earthquake is hindered by different tectonic settings of the region under study.     

孕震断层锁固段累积损伤导致失稳的自组织-临界行为特征

弄清锁固段（岩石）破裂过程中自组织临界性的物理涵义,对正确认识地震可预测性问题等具有重要意义.本文指出锁固段破裂过程存在两个临界点,第一临界点为体积膨胀点,是自组织过程起点,在该点锁固段发生可判识的高能级破裂事件,这可视为锁固段宏观破裂前的惟一可识别前兆;第二临界点为峰值强度点,即失稳点,在该点通常发生有明显地表破裂带的大地震.基于以前研究给出的两者之间应变比理论关系以及地震震级与能量约束关系,可预测锁固段在第一和第二临界点处发生的某些标志性地震,并已得到诸多震例分析的支持.本文研究结果表明：由于锁固段是非均匀介质,失稳前必须出现自组织过程,自组织是“因”,临界失稳是“果”,正是因为自组织过程的存在,才使得对某些大地震（如标志性地震）的预测成为可能;两个临界点之间的破裂演化过程并不是瞬态行为,通常是一个长期过程,该过程中标志性地震的发生遵循确定性规律,并不存在小地震直接导致大地震（如标志性地震）的级联效应.     

Particle Simulation of Relativistic Laser Pulse Density Channeling

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Particle Simulation of Relativistic Laser Pulse Density Channeling

Two-dimensional particle simulation is carried out to study the interaction between a high-intensity finite-size spot laser beam and a plasma with linear density profile. The laser is allowed to propagate in underdense corona until it is cut off near the critical surface. The intense laser can drive various instabilities through particle collective motion and result in electron heating,while relativistic effect and ponderomotive force can bring strong energy absorption and electron heating in the overdense region. As the laser beam is nonuniform in the transverse direction,a density channel forms and hole boring effect occurs as a result of strong ponderomotive force pushing particle outwards. These processes can be investigated well by particle simulation.     

Electron density dynamics in semiconductor lasers under relatively strong dual optical injection

In an optically injected semiconductor laser, we theoretically investigate the effect of strong double optical injection on the dynamics of electron density within the secondary locking area and the conventional locking region.     

Variation of radon flux along active fault zones in association with earthquake occurrence

Radon flux measurements were carried out at three radon stations along an active fault zone in the Langadas basin, Northern Greece by various techniques for earthquake prediction studies. Specially made devices with alpha track-etch detectors (ATDs) were installed by using LR-115, type II, non-strippable cellulose nitrate films (integrating method of measurements). Continuous monitoring of radon gas exhaling from the ground was also performed by using silicon diode detectors, Barasol and Clipperton type, in association with various probes and sensors including simultaneously registration of the meteorological parameters, such as precipitation height (rainfall events), temperature and barometric pressure. The obtained radon data were studied in parallel with the data of seismic events, such as the magnitude, M_L of earthquakes, the epicentral distance, the hypocentral distance and the energy released during the earthquake event occurred at the fault zone during the period of measurements to find out any association between the rad on flux and the meteorological and seismological parameters. Seismic events with magnitude M_L ≥ 4.0 appeared to be preceded by large precursory signals produced a well-defined “anomaly” (peak) of radon flux prior to the event. In the results, the radon peaks in the obtained spectra appeared to be sharp and narrow. The rise time of a radon peak, that is the time period from the onset of a radon peak until the time of radon flux maximum is about a week, while the after time, that is the time interval between the time of radon flux maximum and the time of a seismic event ranges from about 3 weeks or more.     

Earthquake hazard and risk mitigation

Earthquake risk is the combination of three factors: the earthquake hazard, the loss potential and the vulnerability. To examine the risk it is first necessary to consider the global distribution of earthquakes, their size and their frequency of occurrence. Migratory trends and temporal patterns of activity are sought as a means of defining the locations of future seismic hazard. It is important also to appreciate the kind of damage that is brought about by an earthquake, including the social and economic effects that can follow. Where loss potential is high, in areas of high population density, and where there is a known hazard from earthquakes, it is vital to mitigate the risk by reducing the vulnerability so far as possible. This can best be achieved through earthquake-resistant construction of buildings and other structures, but there are limits to what can be achieved. Consequently earthquake prediction may prove an alternative, complementary approach that could at least save lives. A range of possible precursory phenomena have been discovered, a number of which can be related empirically to the size and time ahead of an impending earthquake, but since the physical mechanism of earthquakes is still poorly known, these phenomena have only a weak scientific basis. At present none are established as definite precursors, and although a few successful predictions have been claimed, there are too many failures to predict, and too many false alarms, for Predictions to be reliable or credible. For the time being, as research progresses, the uncertainty of predictions will pose problems for scientists and government authorities alike.     

The diversity of the physics of earthquakes

Earthquakes exhibit diverse characteristics. Most shallow earthquakes are “brittle” in the sense that they excite seismic waves efficiently. However, some earthquakes are slow, as characterized by tsunami earthquakes and even slower events without any obvious seismic radiation. Also, some earthquakes, like the 1994 Bolivian deep earthquake, involved a large amount of fracture and thermal energy and may be more appropriately called a thermal event, rather than an earthquake. Some earthquakes are caused by processes other than faulting, such as landslides. This diversity can be best understood in terms of the difference in the partition of the released potential energy to radiated, fracture, and thermal energies during an earthquake. This approach requires detailed studies on quantification of earthquakes and estimation of various kinds of energies involved in earthquake processes. This paper reviews the progress in this field from historical and personal points of view and discusses its implications for earthquake damage mitigation.     

Power law distribution of seismic rates: theory and data analysis

We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions P_data(r) (and its cumulative version) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog, over fixed spatial boxes 5 ×5 km², 20 ×20 km² and 50 ×50 km² and time intervals and 1000 days. The data can be represented by asymptotic power law tails together with several cross-overs. These observations are explained by a simple stochastic branching process previously studied by many authors, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (“aftershocks”). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. We develop the full theory in terms of generating functions for describing the space-time organization of earthquake sequences and develop several approximations to solve the equations. The calibration of the theory to the empirical observations shows that it is essential to augment the ETAS model by taking account of the pre-existing frozen heterogeneity of spontaneous earthquake sources. This seems natural in view of the complex multi-scale nature of fault networks, on which earthquakes nucleate. Our extended theory is able to account for the empirical observation but some discrepancies, especially for the shorter time windows, point to limits of both our theoretical approach and of the ETAS model.     

Droplet state and the compressibility anomaly in dilute 2D electron systems

We investigate the space distribution of carrier density and the compressibility of two-dimensional (2D) electron systems by using the local density approximation. The strong correlation is simulated by the local exchange and correlation energies. A slowly varied disorder potential is applied to simulate the disorder effect. We show that the compressibility anomaly observed in 2D systems which accompanies the metal-insulator transition can be attributed to the formation of the droplet state due to a disorder effect at low carrier densities.     

Estimating the Epicenter of a Future Strong Earthquake in Southern California,Mexico, and Central America by Means of Natural Time Analysis and Earthquake Nowcasting

It has recently been shown in the Eastern Mediterranean that by combining natural time analysis of seismicity with earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns and earthquake nowcasting, an estimate of the epicenter location of a future strong earthquake can be obtained. This is based on the construction of average earthquake potential score maps. Here, we propose a method of obtaining such estimates for a highly seismically active area that includes Southern California, Mexico and part of Central America, i.e., the area N1035W80120. The study includes 28 strong earthquakes of magnitude M ≥7.0 that occurred during the time period from 1989 to 2020. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the epicenter of a future strong earthquake and the average earthquake potential score maps. Moreover, the method is also applied to the very recent 7 September 2021 Guerrero, Mexico, M7 earthquake as well as to the 22 September 2021 Jiquilillo, Nicaragua, M6.5 earthquake with successful results. We also show that in 28 out of the 29 strong M ≥7.0 EQs studied, their epicenters lie close to an estimated zone covering only 8.5% of the total area.     

Critical behavior in earthquake energy dissipation

We explore bursty multiscale energy dissipation from earthquakes flanked by latitudes 29° S and 35.5° S, and longitudes 69.501° W and 73.944° W (in the Chilean central zone). Our work compares the predictions of a theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions with nonstandard statistical signatures of earthquake complex scaling behaviors. For temporal scales less than 84 hours, time development of earthquake radiated energy activity follows an algebraic arrangement consistent with estimates from the theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions. There are no characteristic scales for probability distributions of sizes and lifetimes of the activity bursts in the scaling region. The power-law exponents describing the probability distributions suggest that the main energy dissipation takes place due to largest bursts of activity, such as major earthquakes, as opposed to smaller activations which contribute less significantly though they have greater relative occurrence. The results obtained provide statistical evidence that earthquake energy dissipation mechanisms are essentially “scale-free”, displaying statistical and dynamical self-similarity. Our results provide some evidence that earthquake radiated energy and directed percolation belong to a similar universality class.