Multifractal moving average analysis and test of multifractal model with tuned correlations

We address two common major problems in the study of time series characterizing fluctuations in complex systems: multifractal analysis and multifractal modeling. Specifically, we introduce a multi-fractal centered moving average (MF-CMA) analysis, which is computationally easier but equivalently performing compared with the well-established multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) with linear detrending. In addition, we study in detail a generalized binomial multi-fractal model (GB-MFM) to conveniently and reliably generate multifractal surrogate data with arbitrary singularity strengths and arbitrary long-term persistence. We use the data generated by this model as well as realistic, by construction monofractal data series with crossovers and trends to test and compare the multifractal analysis methods and discuss finite-size effects as well as limitations due to spurious multifractality.     

Long-term correlations and multifractal nature in the intertrade durations of a liquid Chinese stock and its warrant

The intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure, characterizing trading activities; it is defined as the waiting time between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative investigation of the statistical properties of their intertrade duration time series. The distributions of the two equities can be better described by the shifted power-law form than the Weibull form, and their scaled distributions do not collapse onto a single curve. Although the intertrade durations of the two equities have very different magnitude, their intraday patterns exhibit very similar shapes. Both detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and detrending moving average analysis (DMA) show that the 1 min intertrade duration time series of the two equities are strongly correlated. In addition, both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and multifractal detrending moving average analysis (MFDMA) unveil that the 1 min intertrade durations possess multifractal nature. However, the difference between the two singularity spectra of the two equities obtained from the MFDMA is much smaller than that from the MFDFA.     

Multifractal estimates of monofractality in RR-heart series in power spectrum ranges

Two popular estimators of multifractal properties: the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima method and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis are applied to investigate signals consisting of normal RR-series in 39 healthy subjects and 90 patients suffering from systolic dysfunction of the left ventricle. However, differently from standards for multifractal analysis the scaling is performed separately in intervals corresponding to standard power spectral bands: low (LF), very low (VLF) and ultra low frequencies (ULF). Tests on fractional Brownian motions (fBm) are done to quantify properties of the estimators as detectors of monofractality in LF, VLF and ULF bands. Arguments are given that multifractal analysis of RR-series performed in these bands has a physiological meaning. The increased activation of the sympathetic nervous system caused by heart disease is detected evidently only by analysis in LF. The transition in multifractal characteristics between diurnal and nocturnal activity takes place when the analysis moves from LF and VLF to ULF. Only in ULF, the diurnal heart rate variability can be approximated by fBm with a self-similarity index of H=0.20.     

Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of Interevent Time Series in a Modified OFC Model

We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis(MF-DFA) method to investigate the multifractal behavior of the interevent time series in a modified Olami-Feder-Christensen(OFC) earthquake model on assortative scale-free networks.We determine generalized Hurst exponent and singularity spectrum and find that these fluctuations have multifractal nature.Comparing the MF-DFA results for the original interevent time series with those for shuffled and surrogate series,we conclude that the origin of multifractality is due to both the broadness of probability density function and long-range correlation.     

A New Look at Calendar Anomalies: Multifractality and Day-of-the-Week Effect

Stock markets can become inefficient due to calendar anomalies known as the day-of-the-week effect. Calendar anomalies are well known in the financial literature, but the phenomena remain to be explored in econophysics. This paper uses multifractal analysis to evaluate if the temporal dynamics of market returns also exhibit calendar anomalies such as day-of-the-week effects. We apply multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to the daily returns of market indices worldwide for each day of the week. Our results indicate that distinct multifractal properties characterize individual days of the week. Monday returns tend to exhibit more persistent behavior and richer multifractal structures than other day-resolved returns. Shuffling the series reveals that multifractality arises from a broad probability density function and long-term correlations. The time-dependent multifractal analysis shows that the Monday returns’ multifractal spectra are much wider than those of other days. This behavior is especially persistent during financial crises. The presence of day-of-the-week effects in multifractal dynamics of market returns motivates further research on calendar anomalies for distinct market regimes.     

Price–volume cross-correlation analysis of CSI300 index futures

We investigate the cross-correlation between price returns and trading volumes for the China Securities Index 300 (CSI300) index futures, which are the only stock index futures traded on the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX). The basic statistics suggest that distributions of these two time series are not normal but exhibit fat tails. Based on the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA), we obtain that returns and trading volumes are long-range cross-correlated. The existence of multifractality in the cross-correlation between returns and trading volumes has been proven with the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MFDCCA) algorithm. The multifractal analysis also confirms that returns and trading volumes have different degrees of multifractality. We further perform a cross-correlation statistic to verify whether the cross-correlation significantly exists between returns and trading volumes for CSI300 index futures. In addition, results of the test for lead-lag effect demonstrate that contemporaneous cross-correlation of return and trading volume series is stronger than cross-correlations of leaded or lagged series.     

Multifractal description of wind power fluctuations using arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analysis

The objectives are to study and model the aggregate wind power fluctuations dynamics in the multifractal framework. We present here the analysis of aggregate power output sampled at 1 Hz during three years. We decompose the data into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). We use a new approach, arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analysis, a combination of the EMD approach with Hilbert spectral analysis (or Hilbert–Huang Transform) and the classical structure-function analysis to extract the scaling exponents or multifractal spectrum ζ(q)$\zeta \left(q\right)$: this function provides a full characterization of a process at all intensities and all scales. The application of both methods, i.e. structure-function and arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analyses, gives similar results indicating that the aggregate power output from a wind farm, possesses intermittent and multifractal properties. In order to check this result, we generate stochastic simulations of a Multifractal Random Walk (MRW) using a log-normal stochastic equation. We show that the simulation results are fully compatible with the experimental results.     

Linearization effect in multifractal analysis: Insights from the Random Energy Model

The analysis of the linearization effect in multifractal analysis, and hence of the estimation of moments for multifractal processes, is revisited borrowing concepts from the statistical physics of disordered systems, notably from the analysis of the so-called Random Energy Model. Considering a standard multifractal process (compound Poisson motion), chosen as a simple representative example, we show the following: (i) the existence of a critical order q^∗ beyond which moments, though finite, cannot be estimated through empirical averages, irrespective of the sample size of the observation; (ii) multifractal exponents necessarily behave linearly in q, for q>q^∗. Tailoring the analysis conducted for the Random Energy Model to that of Compound Poisson motion, we provide explicative and quantitative predictions for the values of q^∗ and for the slope controlling the linear behavior of the multifractal exponents. These quantities are shown to be related only to the definition of the multifractal process and not to depend on the sample size of the observation. Monte Carlo simulations, conducted over a large number of large sample size realizations of compound Poisson motion, comfort and extend these analyses.     

Comment on ‘multifractal diffusion entropy analysis on stock volatility in financial markets’ [Physica A 391 (2012) 5739–5745]

In their recent article ‘multifractal diffusion entropy analysis on stock volatility in financial markets’ Huang, Shang and Zhao (2012) [6] suggested a generalization of the diffusion entropy analysis method with the main goal of being able to reveal scaling exponents for multifractal times series. The main idea seems to be replacing the Shannon entropy by the Rényi entropy, which is a one-parametric family of entropies. The authors claim that based on their method they are able to separate long range and short correlations of financial market multifractal time series. In this comment I show that the suggested new method does not bring much valuable information in obtaining the correct scaling for a multifractal/mono-fractal process beyond the original diffusion entropy analysis method. I also argue that the mathematical properties of the multifractal diffusion entropy analysis should be carefully explored to avoid possible numerical artefacts when implementing the method in analysis of real sequences of data.     

脑电信号的标度分析及其在睡眠状态区分中的应用

脑电信号具有长程幂律相关性及多重分形的标度特性,并随生理病理状态改变.本文首次针对睡眠脑电信号应用单重分形去趋势波动分析(detrended fluctuation analysis,简记为DFA)方法与多重分形奇异谱对睡眠脑电信号的标度特征进行系统的对比研究.发现DFA标度指数α对于不同导联和样本组间的差异较为敏感,随睡眠状态的变化不规律;而多重分形奇异强度区间Δα随睡眠状态的变化更为规律,睡眠Ⅰ期至Ⅳ期不断增大,并且导联间差异和样本组间差异均较小.多重分形Δα参数更适合作为判定睡眠状态的定量参数.     

Are crude oil markets multifractal? Evidence from MF-DFA and MF-SSA perspectives

In this article, we investigated the multifractality and its underlying formation mechanisms in international crude oil markets, namely, Brent and WTI, which are the most important oil pricing benchmarks globally. We attempt to find the answers to the following questions: (1) Are those different markets multifractal? (2) What are the dynamical causes for multifractality in those markets (if any)? To answer these questions, we applied both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal singular spectrum analysis (MF-SSA) based on the partition function, two widely used multifractality detecting methods. We found that both markets exhibit multifractal properties by means of these methods. Furthermore, in order to identify the underlying formation mechanisms of multifractal features, we destroyed the underlying nonlinear temporal correlation by shuffling the original time series; thus, we identified that the causes of the multifractality are influenced mainly by a nonlinear temporal correlation mechanism instead of a non-Gaussian distribution. At last, by tracking the evolution of left- and right-half multifractal spectra, we found that the dynamics of the large price fluctuations is significantly different from that of the small ones. Our main contribution is that we not only provided empirical evidence of the existence of multifractality in the markets, but also the sources of multifractality and plausible explanations to current literature; furthermore, we investigated the different dynamical price behaviors influenced by large and small price fluctuations.     

Multifractal Analysis of Human Heartbeat in Sleep

We study the dynamical properties of heart rate variability （HRV） in sleep by analysing the scaling behaviour with the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method. It is well known that heart rate is regulated by the interaction of two branches of the autonomic nervous system： the parasympathetic and sympathetic nervous systems. By investigating the multifractal properties of light, deep, rapid-eye-movement （REM） sleep and wake stages, we firstly find an increasing multifractal behaviour during REM sleep which may be caused by augmented sympathetic activities relative to non-REM sleep. In addition, the investigation of long-range correlations of HRV in sleep with second order detrended fluctuation analysis presents irregular phenomena. These findings may be helpful to understand the underlying regulating mechanism of heart rate by autonomic nervous system during wake-sleep transitions.     

油菜光谱的多重分形分析及叶绿素诊断建模

作物信息科学的重要内容是如何利用作物的信息对其进行无损营养诊断,光谱分析是一种有效可行的途径。对于油菜而言,冠层光谱的特征是描述其营养状况的重要指标。但由于原始光谱总是受到一些如环境、气候等外在因素的影响,其巨大的波动导致难以直接用于油菜生物量的诊断。然而,光谱的多重分形特征将保持相对稳定。为研究油菜冠层光谱与叶绿素含量的关系,基于多重分形理论,提出了基于油菜冠层光谱特征的叶绿素定量预测模型和定性识别模型。以24个移栽种植小区和24个直播种植小区的高油酸油菜苗期样本为试验对象。首先,利用流行的多重分形去趋势波动分析提取了6个不同波段范围内光谱的广义Hurst指数和质量指数及其他相关的特征参数,发现它们都呈现典型的多重分形特性。但两种不同种植方式下的光谱特征也存在差异。接着,通过多重分形特征参数与SPAD值的相关分析发现不同波段的光谱所含的有效信息不同。以多重分形特征参数建立单变量油菜叶片SPAD值预测模型,移栽方式、直播方式及混合样本的预测模型相对均方根误差均小于5%。最后,以多重分形特征组合建立识别模型,以Fisher线性判别法识别移栽和直播两种种植方式的最大约登指数为0.902 5,对应最敏感波段为350~1 350 nm。这项有意义的工作为预测油菜叶绿素提供了理论基础和实践方法,也为寻找敏感波段进行识别诊断提供了有效的途径。     

Multifractal analysis and randomness of almost periodic forced two-level systems

Numerical results of multifractal analysis of the (quantum) dynamics of forced two-level systems under some almost periodic time dependence are reported. The aims are to check the presence of multifractal characteristics of these systems, and also to inspect if different degrees of aperiodicities in the force are transferred to the system dynamics. Although the dynamics present signatures of the randomness of the perturbation, it does not follow strictly its autocorrelation type. The wavelet transform is the tool used to carry out the multifractal analysis.     

多重分形分析图象边缘提取算法

提出了一种基于多重分形分析的图象边缘提取算法,通过计算每个象素点的奇异值和多重分形谱,并根据多重分形谱的各种测度修正,提取出图象的边缘信息.在分析图象的各种象素点的多重分形谱特性的基础上,着重分析了多重分形谱常用的若干测度以及选取标准.该算法利用奇异性Hölder指数和多重分形谱以及它们组成的判据来进行图象边缘提取的思路不同于传统的基于梯度的局部极值点来进行图象边缘提取的方法.实验结果表明:该算法可以在保留重要边缘信息的情况下去除不重要细节,更能符合人的视觉心理.     

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of the Chinese stock index futures market

Based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal spectrum analysis, this paper empirically studies the multifractal properties of the Chinese stock index futures market. Using a total of 2942 ten-minute closing prices, we find that the Chinese stock index futures returns exhibit long-range correlations and multifractality, making the single-scale index insufficient to describe the futures price fluctuations. Further, by comparing the original time series with the transformed time series through shuffling procedure and phase randomization procedure, we show the existence of two different sources of the multifractality for the Chinese stock index futures market. Our results suggest that the multifractality is mainly due to long-range correlations, although the fat-tailed probability distributions also contribute to such multifractal behaviour.     

Detrended fluctuation analysis on spot and futures markets of West Texas Intermediate crude oil

In this paper, we study the auto-correlations and cross-correlations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot and futures return series employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). Scaling analysis shows that, for time scales smaller than a month, the auto-correlations and cross-correlations are persistent. For time scales larger than a month but smaller than a year, the correlations are anti-persistent, while, for time scales larger than a year, the series are neither auto-correlated nor cross-correlated, indicating the efficient operation of the crude oil markets. Moreover, for small time scales, the degree of short-term cross-correlations is higher than that of auto-correlations. Using the multifractal extension of DFA and DCCA, we find that, for small time scales, the correlations are strongly multifractal, while, for large time scales, the correlations are nearly monofractal. Analyzing the multifractality of shuffled and surrogated series, we find that both long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions make important contributions to the multifractality. Our results have important implications for market efficiency and asset pricing models.     

多重分形降趋波动分析法和移动平均法的分形谱算法对比分析

多重分形降趋波动分析法(MFDFA)和多重分形降趋移动平均法(MFDMA)是用来估算一维随机分形信号多重分形谱的两种算法, 已被拓展应用于二维和高维分形信号的分析. 本文简要介绍了MFDFA和MFDMA算法及其在一维时间序列中的应用. 首次系统地从算法模型、计算统计精度、样本量的敏感性、无标度区选取的敏感性、矩选择的敏感性和计算量这六个方面对两种算法进行了对比分析, 以典型多重分形信号BMC信号为例, 分析两种算法的适用性和优劣性. 为实际应用中, 针对具体信号如何选用MFDFA或MFDMA算法, 以及两种算法的参数设置提供了有价值的参考.     

Research on the relationship between the multifractality and long memory of realized volatility in the SSECI

We examine the multifractal properties of the realized volatility (RV) and realized bipower variation (RBV) series in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI) by using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. We find that there exist distinct multifractal characteristics in the volatility series. The contributions of two different types of source of multifractality, namely, fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, are studied. By using the unit root test, we also find the strength of the multifractality of the volatility time series is insensitive to the sampling frequency but that the long memory of these series is sensitive.