Assessing the cost-effectiveness of university academic recruitment and promotion policies,

This paper develops an approach for higher education institutions to assess the economic efficiency of their recruitment and promotion practices concerning academic staff. Research output potential is a key criterion in most academic appointments. Generally, there is a long lead time between the conduct of research and its ultimate value in the form of disseminated knowledge. This means higher education institutions usually reward financially staff on the prospect of research output, albeit on the basis of research outputs achieved up to the point of recruitment or discretionary salary rise (e.g. through promotion). We propose a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model which can be used retrospectively to set salary costs against corresponding research outputs achieved as a measure of the financial efficacy of past recruitment and promotion practices. The analysis can identify potential issues with those practices and lead to improvements for the future.     

A Personnel Selection Problem in Healthcare System Using Fuzzy-TOPSIS Approach

The methods of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) are increasingly becoming the most desired tools for making daily decisions in various fields of human endeavors. Staff employment in any sector requires a thorough evaluation of the applicant before selection to ensure effective and efficient service delivery. Besides, healthcare is one of the most complicated organizations dealing with human lives. This paper has developed a staff selection model considering a fuzzy environment by using the technique for order preference similar to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method. For the delivery and promotion of quality healthcare systems, medical staff selection is crucial to the system. Therefore, the study evaluates medical staff by using the expert''s linguistic judgement under the criteria of skill, experience and ability to respond to a problem. The expert''s vagueness in judgments has been represented by using fuzzy triangular numbers. The study determines the closeness coefficient, the measures of separation and the ideal solutions of the TOPSIS method. The most appropriate medical staff are ranked and selected based on the available criteria. The Fuzzy-TOPSIS method is simple and can help other organizations achieve proper ranking, evaluation and selection of qualified candidates, as it takes imprecise information into account.     

Cohort Analysis Technique for Long-Term Manpower Planning: the Case of a Hong Kong Tertiary Institution

This paper considers the problem of long-term manpower planning on the number of teaching staff for the case of a tertiary institution—the City Polytechnic of Hong Kong (CPHK). Due to the high turnover experienced in recent years, it is found necessary to study the wastage pattern of staff, defined as the number of new appointees who have left CPHK employment, rather than simply addressing just the issue of strength (namely number in post). A cohort analysis technique is therefore applied to characterize statistically the wastage rate as related to the length of service of individual cohorts of staff, being groups of newcomers joining CPHK in the same periods of time. This results in a log-normal model, showing a significant cohort specific effect on the wastage behaviour. Extending this cohort analysis technique, together with double exponential smoothing forecasts, to future retention rates (1 — cumulative wastage rates), a long-term planning model is constructed to study the relation between expected yearly recruitment levels and the target manpower requirements for the future five-year planning horizon. While the idea and model developed here are generally applicable, the present computational results provide valuable decision supports for an actual case study, for CPHK in particular.     

A non-parametric competing risks model for manpower planning

One of the most important variables for manpower planners is duration until a specified event occurs. This is frequently the completed length of service until leaving a job, but may also include such variables as length of service in a grade until promotion, or length of a spell of withdrawal from the labour force. In this paper we develop non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators for the survivor functions of length of stay in a grade until leaving for a number of different possible destinations. Since the data are statistically incomplete, including right censored and left truncated durations, as well as complete durations, we must modify the competing risks theory in the biostatistical literature to take such incompleteness into account. Right censored durations arise when the individual is still in the grade when data collection ceases and left truncated durations when the individual is already in service when data collection commences. The competing risks model is fitted to data for Northern Ireland nursing service and used to predict staff flows between grades. We may thus estimate future movements within the system and predict the future manpower stocks.     

人力资源网络模型及其动力学分析在企业内部升迁和外部招聘中的应用

首先讨论了ICM公司职位分配到职员办公室的原则,并讨论了在这些原则下一个合理分配方案的合作网络和监管网络构成的混合网络模型;然后,利用该模型的节点属性、公司职员属性及两者之间的关系建立了后档案矩阵,讨论了公司职员属性函数,在此基础上研究了包含职员离职算法、内部升迁算法和外部招聘算法的动力学分析;最后,在混合网络模型中利用算法进行了动力学仿真。     

A tabu search algorithm applied to the staffing roster problem of Leicestershire police force

This paper presents an application of the tabu search algorithm to a staff rostering problem relevant to Leicestershire Police. The aim is to address the issue of structuring staff rosters to enable effective use of staff to meet the demand on the Police to reduce and deal with crime-related incidents. This problem is defined through the compilation of a time-varying level of required staff and an associated staff roster. The objective is an optimised work set-up, maximising staff resources and the meeting of demand. Optimisation of staff levels to demand is sought through use of a series of tabu search algorithms, making use of two diversification techniques and an intensification technique individually and in compilation. The tabu search is shown to be a well-suited optimisation approach to the type of problem defined, with individual conclusions drawn for each of the technique combinations used.     

A Bivariate Model for Markov Manpower Planning Systems

Markov models are being extensively used for analysis of manpower planning systems. Most of these models concentrate either on estimating the gradewise distribution of future manpower structure, given the existing structure and promotion policies, or on deriving policies towards promotion, given the required future structure. However, in many large organizations, agreements between employee unions and management result in the framing of policies towards promotion based either on seniority (length of service in the grade) or on performance (as in the case of ‘high fliers’). In this paper these two criteria are considered in a bivariate distribution framework. The transition probabilities for promotion obtained from the Markov model are further translated into required seniority and performance rating. The procedure is illustrated through an example.     

A model for promotion rate control in hierarchical manpower systems

In optimization models of hierarchical manpower systems, thenumbers promoted from each of the grades in a time period arenormally considered as decision variables. As a result, promotionrates, defined in terms of the proportions of staff promoted,can vary substantially from period to period in these models.Policies of this type may be unacceptable in practice becauseof their adverse impact on staff morale. In this paper, a mixedinteger programming (MIP) manpower planning model is developedfor determining minimum-cost manpower policies in which promotionrates remain stable while satisfying specified manpower requirementsover the planning period. In this MIP model, promotion ratesare considered as decision variables by using binary variables,and the model is solved by using an iterative procedure. Theuse of the approach is illustrated with representative datafor a military system.     

Hybrid or electric vehicles? A real options perspective

This paper investigates the decision of an automaker concerning the alternative promotion of a hybrid vehicle (HV) and a full electric vehicle (EV). We evaluate the HV project by considering the option to change promotion from the HV to the EV in the future. The results not only extend previous findings concerning American options on multiple assets, but also include several new implications. One notable observation is that increased market demand for EVs can accelerate the promotion of the HV because of the embedded option.     

基于成熟度理论的集团企业人力资源管理质量等级评价理论和方法研究

对企业的人力资源管理质量进行评价,有助于促进其人力资源管理质量的持续提升。本文以集团企业为例,基于成熟度理论,研究提出了人力资源管理质量概念框架、成熟度等级,从组织、员工和文化三元视角构建了由5大方面、14个维度、66项指标构成的集团企业人力资源管理质量评价OEC^⑤-66模型,给出了人力资源管理质量评价计算方法、质量等级判断标准,以期为集团企业人力资源管理质量的评价和提升提供科学参考。     

Sensitivity Analysis of Promotion Opportunities in Graded Organizations

This paper extends earlier work on manpower mobility in hierarchical organizations and is concerned especially with the effects of changes in hiring and separation on opportunities for internal advancement. We make use of a fractional flow model of personnel to highlight the links between personnel flows and vacancy flows, and then derive formulae that can be used to simulate the impact of changes in grade-size targets, hiring policy and attrition rates on promotion opportunities for staff. The model is then illustrated by application to data on faculty staffing in a large university.     

A Grade-Specific Stochastic Model for the Analysis of Wastage in Manpower Systems

A stochastic model for a hierarchically-structured company is presented which accounts for the effect on wastage of the internal structure of the company and the promotion experience of its employees. We differentiate two main reasons for leaving, owing to the company's internal structure, and the model is formulated on the basis of the joint probabilities of the employee being in service or having left the company because of either reason by time t and his promotion experience up to t. It is shown that the model provides a good fit to a variety of observed leaving patterns of five large companies, explains the relationship between a number of important occupational variables and is useful for planning purposes in predicting future developments.     

Operational Research in the Steel Company of Wales Limited

This article is the first of a series in which it is planned to describe and discuss the work of a number of operational research departments in the United Kingdom. Operational research in the Steel Company of Wales is now over 10 years of age, and employs some 60 staff working as a Company function in the two major operating Divisions. It is a general service to management, giving what advice it can on problems which managers themselves consider important. It is characterized by a broadly based, scientific staff, embracing between them a range of techniques, including those of method study. Particular attention is paid to statistics, mathematics and electronic computing, in support of both operational research projects and more technological work. Over the years, the department has achieved an appreciable degree of practical success and its future is attractively bright.     

Staffing Rosters with Breaks — A Case Study

A complex manual rostering system for directory assistance, telephone operators has been rationalized and the technique of integer programming used to automatically generate staff rosters. These rosters can be generated by relatively unskilled clerical staff. They result in operator costs comparable to manually generated rosters and can be produced in a fraction of the time taken to produce their manual counterparts. Implementation is reported.     

Analysing consumer segments to budget for loyalty and promotion programmes and maximize market share

This paper seeks to provide a framework and benchmark for the allocation of marketing budget between promotion and loyalty programmes using an approach that combines a Markov-type market share model and the Lagrange multiplier method to maximize market share. The Lagrange multiplier method, that takes into account the market share and the loyalty effect observable in preceding periods along with the estimated promotional effects, permits the allocation to be optimized and future market share to be maximized. Then, loyalty-based consumer segment are used to explain why the budgeting exercise can achieve the maximization objective. To this end, the study uses consumer panel data concerning three categories, namely, adult milk powder, shampoo, and detergent. It extends previous research on loyalty-based segmentation by focusing on the budget allocation between the two options of loyalty enhancement and promotion programming. A Budget Allocation Grid for Loyalty-based Segmentation is proposed as an aid to understand budget allocation between loyalty and promotion programmes based on the relative sizes of exclusive-loyalty and variety-seeking segments.     

The Malliavin calculus

The paper presents a review of the calculus of functional derivatives introduced by Malliaving and the Malliavin technique for establishing the existence of a density for the probability law of Wiener functionals. The approach of Malliavin, Stroock and Shigekawa is compared with that of Bismut.The research was supported by the fund for the promotion of research at the Technion     

不确定需求下的网络代销平台返利优化决策

在电商与信息化时代, 网络代销平台在产品促销方面的优势越来越明显。与折扣促销不同, 返利促销需要消费者先全款购买, 再事后兑现。本文构建了一个制造商和一个网络代销平台组成的销售系统, 考虑产品需求为可加式随机且同时受价格和返利促销影响, 在Stackelberg博弈框架下研究了制造商的定价与库存策略以及网络代销平台的返利优化决策。研究发现, 当消费者对返利的敏感程度逐渐增强时, 网络代销平台会更倾向于向消费者提供更多的返利, 此时代销平台与制造商实现共赢; 而当消费者的返利兑现率逐渐增大时, 返利平台会降低返利促销的强度, 此时会导致制造商的利益受损。     

用Markov链模拟酒店逐月客房利用率的探讨

酒店逐月客房利用率的预测,对于安排来年人员及物质、设备等是至关重要的,也是计算酒店经济利润,进行成本核算不可缺少的参数.由于客人入住是一个随机过程,难以用准确的分布函数来描述,但作出某些合理的假设后,可将其变为平稳随机过程.用M arkov自回归模型可生成模拟未来年的逐月客房利用率系列,以满足酒店规划、计划、市场营销等方面的需要.以乌鲁木齐市伊斯兰酒店为例,用M arkov模型进行了模拟.     

A supply chain under limited-time promotion: The effect of customer sensitivity

We consider a two-echelon supply chain with a supplier and a retailer facing stochastic customer demands. The supplier is a leader who determines a wholesale price. In response, the retailer orders products and sets a price which affects customer demands. The goal of both players is to maximize their profits. We find the Stackelberg equilibrium and show that it is unique, not only when the supply chain is in a steady-state but also when it is in a transient state induced by a supplier’s promotion. There is a maximum length to the promotion, however, beyond which the equilibrium ceases to exist. Moreover, if customer sensitivity increases, then the wholesale equilibrium price decreases, product orders increase and product prices drop. This effect, well-observed in real life, does not, however, necessarily imply that the promotion is always beneficial. Conditions for the profitability of a limited-time promotion are shown and analyzed numerically. We discuss both open-loop and feedback policies and derive the conditions necessary for them to remain optimal under stochastic demand fluctuations.