An analytic valuation method for multivariate contingent claims with regime-switching volatilities

In this paper, we provide an analytic valuation method for European-type contingent claims written on multiple assets in a stochastic market environment. We employ a two-state Markov regime-switching volatility in order to reflect stochastically changing market conditions. The method is developed by exploiting the probability density of the occupation time for which the underlying asset processes are in a certain regime during a time period. In order to show its usefulness, we derive analytic valuation formulas for quanto options and exchange options with two underlying assets, as examples.     

The efficiency effects of a single market for financial services in Europe

This paper examines the potential efficiency effects of a single market for financial services in Europe. The topics covered include universal banking, the merger and acquisition process itself, cross-border ownership and management of financial institutions, and the effects of consolidation of financial institutions on the supply of relationship lending services to informationally opaque small businesses. The research reviewed here suggests that the creation of a single market for the European financial services industry is not likely to bring about strong efficiency gains and that cross-border efficiency barriers may prevent the single market from becoming a reality.     

Multicriteria analysis in agricultural marketing: The case of French olive oil market

Agribusiness industries face a stiff competition originating mainly from the EU trade barrier’s removal and the rapidly changing marketing environment of the single European market. Therefore, certain need has been identified towards the development and proper utilization of updated market research tools and methodologies in the field of agricultural marketing. The aim of this paper is to show the usefulness of multicriteria approach in analyzing consumer’s preference data and its ability to support new product development processes by agricultural firms. The paper outlines first the philosophy of agricultural marketing by emphasizing on the features, which differentiate it from general marketing. Several methodological issues in agricultural marketing are then presented through a state-of-the art survey. Then, the paper develops a consumer-based methodology to support product development decisions where the key-role is played to determine the preference model which explains a single consumer’s ranking; a decision support system summarizes the analysis on the whole set of interviewed consumers to prescribe the `ideal' profile of a new product and to simulate its penetration strategy into the market. Results from the application of the methodology to a survey data base coming from the Paris olive oil market are presented. Finally, the paper concludes with some recommendations about marketing practice in agribusiness.     

A new matrix method based on rigid elements and its application to plane problems

A new matrix is proposed here which is based on rigid elements. The efficiency and usefulness of this method has been demonstrated for plane problems. The purpose of this paper is to formulate the method and to indicate its validity.     

两阶段视角下高技术产业技术创新效率及影响因素研究

基于两阶段视角,将规模报酬可变网络SBM模型和DEA.窗口分析方法相结合,分析了中国高技术产业17个细分行业2002-2011年间技术创新效率的变动趋势和行业差异,并利用面板Tobit,模型检验了技术创新效率的影响因素.结果表明:高技术产业技术创新效率值总体偏低,半数以上行业两阶段效率均处于低位区间,改进和提升空间很大.技术转化效率一直显著高于技术研发效率,两阶段效率失衡问题非常明显.行业集中度、开放度和所有制结构因素均对研发效率和总效率有显著影响,而行业集中度和企业规模对技术转化效率有显著影响.     

市值管理动机下大股东参与定向增发与利益输送

上市公司的市值受到企业内在价值与外部溢价的双重影响,市值管理情境下大股东参与定向增发的利益动机及获利方式有待重新认识。聚焦市值管理的治理效应,以市值管理对大股东参与定向增发意愿的影响为切入点,引入内部资本配置效率,探讨两种认购方式中利益输送行为的存在性及市值管理理念的有效性。研究结果表明:市值管理对大股东参与定向增发具有积极影响;大股东参与定向增发后存在更为严重的资金占用、更高程度的现金分红以及利用资产定价获利的倾向并导致边际资本配置效率降低。进一步研究发现,市值管理能够制约上述利益输送行为,其治理效应随股权集中度的增加而增强,且民营企业市值管理的制度效率较国企更显著。研究结论通过揭示市值管理机制的效力路径为公司再融资决策及政策制定提供了理论依据。     

Allocation of advertising budget between multiple channels to support sales in multiple markets

We consider the allocation of a limited marketing budget between multiple channels in order to promote sales at multiple markets. The channels differ in their type, level of targetability (or reach), and costliness. We incorporate the “threshold effect” from each market in our resource allocation which requires some positive advertising investment in each market before much sales impact can be observed from it. The increased number of channels in recent years with the advent of digital advertising, along with the added complexity created by the threshold effect, necessitates the development of new allocation approaches. In this paper, we formulate the firm’s resource allocation decision as a nonlinear and nonseparable knapsack problem. We develop a branch and cut solution method which is enhanced by a heuristic approach. A set of numerical experiments illustrate the performance of our methods and evaluate the usefulness of two rule-of-thumb strategies commonly used in practice.     

Using store level scanner data to improve category management decisions: Developing positioning maps

This paper provides evidence of the usefulness of aggregated point-of-sale scanner data to infer the positioning of competing brands, providing valuable information for category management and hence facilitating decision making. Specifically, the authors propose a methodology to study the internal market structure based on market share models with latent heterogeneity when only macro-level time series data (not individual choices) are available. The proposed approach assumes a multidimensional decomposition, latent in the preference structure that is implicit to these types of models. By empirically applying this approach, the authors (1) simultaneously identify both latent dimensions of competing brands and latent segments with different brand preferences, (2) explain the competitive positioning of brands without using disaggregated consumer panel data, and (3) achieve greater predictive performance. The findings offer insights to academics and practitioners interested in improving the practice of category management.     

中国地震保险市场的演化博弈均衡——政府预防性补贴和救济性给付分析

我国应对地震风险的资金安排可以按事前与事后划分为灾前预防性质和灾后给付性质。在非预期预算一定的情况下,政府应如何分配救灾基金?对地震保险市场均衡影响如何?本文构建了一个三方演化博弈模型,分析发现政府适度的灾后救济能够同时保证效率与公平,而过度的灾后救济会在长期提高居民的救灾预期,抑制商业地震保险市场的形成与完善。同时,引导与改善社会风险管理意识和风险感知也是提高地震保险市场效率的关键。     

我国资本市场产出效率与生产函数的实证分析

本文运用数据包络分析对我国资本市场的产出效率进行了考察，运用两阶段的DEA-回归方法建立符合经济学定义的我国资本市场生产函数。在此基础上，对我国资本市场的产出效率作了实证分析。     

A robust nonparametric approach to evaluate and explain the performance of mutual funds

The topic of the measurement of mutual funds’ performance is receiving an increasing interest both from an applied and a theoretical perspective. Beside the traditional financial literature, a growing body of studies has started to apply the tools of frontier analysis for benchmarking comparisons in portfolio analysis. Our paper contributes to this literature proposing a robust nonparametric approach for analysing mutual funds. It is based on the concept of order-m frontier [Cazals, C., Florens, J.P., Simar, L., 2002. Nonparametric frontier estimation: A robust approach. Journal of Econometrics 106, 1–25] and on a probabilistic approach [Daraio, C., Simar, L., 2005. Introducing environmental variables in nonparametric frontier models: A probabilistic approach. Journal of Productivity Analysis 24 (1), 93–121] to find out the factors explaining mutual funds’ performance. Within this framework, a decomposition of conditional efficiency is proposed, and its usefulness for economic interpretation analysed. Our approach is illustrated by using US mutual funds data, grouped for category by objective. Economies of scale, slacks and market risks are investigated. A comparison of traditional, nonparametric and robust performance measures is also offered.     

我国商业银行效率测度及其影响因素分析

本文首先采用DEA方法对1999-2004年我国14家商业银行的技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率进行了测度,在此基础上利用Panel Data模型对影响我国银行效率的若干因素进行了检验,结果表明自有资本比率和资产费用率对银行效率有显著影响,贷款质量、资产市场份额与银行效率值之间呈现较弱的相关关系,产权结构多元化有利于提高银行效率.     

交易成本条件下排污权市场的均衡、初始排污权分配的效率与厂商行为分析

传统的排污权交易模型在理论上假设了一个无交易成本的、正规的排污权交易市场,但从美国等国家排污权交易的实践来看,现实中的排污权交易与理想假设相差甚远,许多案例中的交易活动不但信息不充分,交易不频繁,而且建立在逐案谈判基础之上.本文分析了排污权交易中交易成本以及交易成本条件下排污权市场的均衡、初始排污权分配的效率与厂商行为问题,对这些问题的研究不但在理论上可以使我们对排污权交易有更为具体的理解和认识,而且在实践和政策方面有助于我们自觉而理性地对待排污权交易.     

基于债券久期的国债期货套期保值模型分析

使用久期的方法在中国国债期货市场上进行套期保值是否有效?使用久期的方法研究国债期货套期保值的效率问题在国外已经很多,然而这种方法是否适合于目前中国的国债市场,相关研究还不多见,还有待进一步的证实.为此借鉴国外相关理论,采用比较研究的方法,以国债期货上市后2013年9月到2014年5月初,国债现货和国债期货的数据为样本,以基于久期的最优套期保值比率模型为主,其他模型为辅,比较出最优套期保值效率.研究结果表明,基于久期的套期保值方法在目前中国的国债市场效果一般.     

Efficiency in the Greek insurance industry

This paper employs the two-stage procedure of Simar and Wilson (2007) to analyse the effects of deregulation on the efficiency of the Greek insurance industry. The efficiency is estimated by means of data envelopment analysis (DEA). The companies are ranked according to their CRS efficiency score for the period 1994–2003. The first stage results indicate a decline in efficiency over the sample period, while the second stage results confirm that the competition for market shares is a major driver of efficiency in the Greek insurance industry.     

中国股票市场的分形结构——股票收益长期记忆特征的实证研究

股票市场收益的长期记忆特征对于系统非线性结构的确定以及市场有效性的研究具有重要的意义.针对上海和深圳A股算术加权和流通市值加权市场指数的周收益序列以及上证180指数和深圳成份指数中选取的12只代表性股票的周收益序列,采用重标级差分析(R/S分析)和ARF IM A模型对其进行了实证研究.从统计结果来看,样本序列呈现出尖峰和肥尾等有偏特征,明显不满足正态分布的假设,表明收益序列可能具有长程相关或记忆性.进一步的研究发现,沪深两市A股市场指数收益序列和大多数个股(10只股票)存在明显的长期记忆特征,收益分布表现出持久性.从划分不同时段的分析结果来看,中国股票市场渐进趋于弱势有效.     

我国期铜市场流动性与货币供给关系的实证研究

流动性是期货市场基本功能得以实现的重要保证,充足的流动性有利于提高期货市场的运行效率。货币是一种最重要的"流动性载体",货币供给数量的多少能够为整个社会经济提供更多的流动性或紧缩流动性。本文在提出衡量我国期货市场流动性指标的基础上,对我国期铜市场流动性和M2间的关系进行了实证研究,实证表明M2的持续增加在总体上提高了期铜市场的流动性,同时也加大了期铜市场流动性的波动。     

基于公共权重的区间DEA效率评价及其排序方法研究

针对传统区间数据包络分析方法,在确定每一个决策单元区间效率的上界和下界时,存在的评价尺度不一致且计算复杂等问题,本文提出了一种同时最大化所有决策单元的效率上界和下界的公共权重区间DEA模型,并给出了一种考虑决策者偏好信息的可能度排序方法,用以解决区间效率的全排序问题。最后,以中国大陆11个沿海省份工业生产效率测算为例说明了所提方法的有效性和实用性。     

Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets

The stock markets from Post Communist East-European Countries are still considered highly speculative. For this reason, the previously performed tests often infirmed the efficient market hypothesis. However, especially in the past years, different studies revealed an improvement in the level of efficiency. In this context, our paper has tested the predictability of returns based on past records (as a proxy for the weak-form efficiency) for the market index and the most important stocks of 20 East European former communist countries: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine, for the period January 2008–December 2010, a period of financial crisis for most of these countries. Various methods for testing were used (unit root tests, runs test, variance ratio test, filter rules test and the January Effect). The tests have revealed that for some assets the efficient market hypothesis cannot be rejected. However, the results have shown that there are serious doubts concerning the stock market efficiency for all the countries in the analyzed period. Moreover, heterogeneity between the results for different countries was revealed. A higher level of market efficiency can suggest to decision-makers the use of passive portfolio management techniques while a lower level of efficiency implies the use of active portfolio management instruments.     

汇改与外汇市场波动性:大玩家理论的视角

央行在外汇市场的行动对市场波动性有重要影响。本文从主观预期概念出发,基于“大玩家”理论解释了2005年和2015年中国外汇管理体制两次改革前后人民币外汇市场的波动性差异。汇改前,央行积极地承担着“大玩家”的角色,人民币对美元汇率波动性较强;汇改后,央行的“大玩家”角色减弱,汇率波动性程度显著下降,市场效率增强。利用汇率数据进行的R/S分析支持了前述解释。