Reconstruction of a Source from Observational Data

A procedure is described for determining the strength, position, and startup time of a surface force source acting on an elastic half-space from recorded data on the vertical displacements (seismograms) of a linear oscillator (seismograph). The algorithm is based on a previously published analytical solution of the Lamb problem. Special attention is given to the role of the Rayleigh wavefront as a generator of displacements much larger than in the approach of P waves and SV waves to the seismograph, revealing the Rayleigh wave as the primary indicator of a source's space–time position.     

一种估算马尔柯夫状态转移概率矩阵的新方法

在现有文献研究的基础上,对马尔柯夫状态转移概率矩阵估算方法又作了进一步研究,根据马尔柯夫状态转移概率矩阵的性质和特点,提出了一种新的估算方法.方法首先构造了一个以相对误差绝对值之和最小为目标,以某一状态转移到其他状态的概率之和等于1以及状态转移概率不小于零为约束条件的优化模型.在此基础上,通过变量替换,将该模型转化为线性规划模型.由于线性规划模型不仅能够求得解析解,而且有现成的求解软件,因此不但便于问题求解,而且更加方便、可靠.最后进行了示例计算,验证了给出的马尔柯夫状态转移概率矩阵优化算法的可行性和正确性.     

Estimating Individual Treatment Effect in Observational Data Using Random Forest Methods

Estimation of individual treatment effect in observational data is complicated due to the challenges of confounding and selection bias. A useful inferential framework to address this is the counterfactual (potential outcomes) model, which takes the hypothetical stance of asking what if an individual had received both treatments. Making use of random forests (RF) within the counterfactual framework we estimate individual treatment effects by directly modeling the response. We find that accurate estimation of individual treatment effects is possible even in complex heterogenous settings but that the type of RF approach plays an important role in accuracy. Methods designed to be adaptive to confounding, when used in parallel with out-of-sample estimation, do best. One method found to be especially promising is counterfactual synthetic forests. We illustrate this new methodology by applying it to a large comparative effectiveness trial, Project Aware, to explore the role drug use plays in sexual risk. The analysis reveals important connections between risky behavior, drug usage, and sexual risk. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

On Eigenvalues of the Transition Matrix of Some Count-Data Markov Chains

We analyze the eigenstructure of count-data Markov chains. Our main focus is on so-called CLAR(1) models, which are characterized by having a linear conditional mean, and also on the case of a finite range, where the second largest eigenvalue determines the speed of convergence of the forecasting distributions. We derive a lower bound for the second largest eigenvalue, which often (but not always) even equals this eigenvalue. This becomes clear by deriving the complete set of eigenvalues for several specific cases of CLAR(1) models.     

非齐次树指标马氏双链转移矩阵的一个强极限性质

强极限定理是概率论中的重要问题之一.通过引入广义赌博系统的概念,研究给出了关于非齐次树指标马氏双链转移矩阵的一个强极限定理.     

关于树上m重非齐次马氏信源转移矩阵的一个小偏差定理

强极限理论是概率论中的重要问题之一.通过构造非齐次树上的非负殃,研究给出了关于树上m重非齐次马氏信源转移矩阵的一个小偏差定理.     

基于时序矩阵分解的缺失销售数据估计

企业的历史销售记录是供应链优化研究的基础数据来源,然而,在日常的研究中,几乎所有可以通过公开途径获得的销售记录都是高度不完整的,这为研究者开展工作带来了极大的不便。为解决此问题,本文提出,以销售数据集中已有的数据为基础,使用面向时序数据的矩阵分解模型MAFTIS对其缺失的部分进行估算,从而把残缺的数据集补全完整。进一步地,为提高MAFTIS的计算效率,本文还为该模型设计了一种基于交替最小二乘法的求解策略MAFTIS^ALS。在评估实验中,MAFTIS^ALS被用于三个真实销售数据集的缺失记录估计,结果显示,与其它估计模型相比,MAFTIS^ALS能获得更准确的估计结果,并且具有更高的收敛速度。     

Estimating Response Ratios from Continuous Outcome Data

Several methods for imputing the number of responders from summary continuous outcome data in randomized controlled trials exist. A method by Furukawa and others was used in the quite common case that only such summary continuous outcome measures, but not the actual numbers of responders, are reported in order to estimate response rates (probabilities) for different treatments and response ratios between treatments in such trials. The authors give some empirical justification, but encourage search for theoretical support and further empirical exploration. In particular, a problem that needs to be addressed is that randomness in baseline score is not taken into consideration. This will be done in the present paper. Assuming a binormal model for the data, we compare theoretically the true response rate for a single treatment arm to the theoretical response rate underlying two versions of the suggested imputation method. We also assess the performance of the method numerically for some choices of model parameters. We show that the method works satisfactorily in some cases, but can be seriously biased in others. Moreover, assessing the uncertainty of the estimates is problematic. We suggest an alternative Bayesian estimation procedure, based directly on the normal model, which avoids these problems and provides more precise estimates when applied to simulated data sets.     

Estimating Joint Distributions of Markov Chains

Suppose we observe a stationary Markov chain with unknown transition distribution. The empirical estimator for the expectation of a function of two successive observations is known to be efficient. For reversible Markov chains, an appropriate symmetrization is efficient. For functions of more than two arguments, these estimators cease to be efficient. We determine the influence function of efficient estimators of expectations of functions of several observations, both for completely unknown and for reversible Markov chains. We construct simple efficient estimators in both cases.     

Transition matrices for well-conditioned Markov chains

Let T∈R^n×n be an irreducible stochastic matrix with stationary distribution vector π. Set A = I − T, and define the quantity , where A_j, j = 1, … , n, are the (n − 1) × (n − 1) principal submatrices of A obtained by deleting the jth row and column of A. Results of Cho and Meyer, and of Kirkland show that κ₃ provides a sensitive measure of the conditioning of π under perturbation of T. Moreover, it is known that .In this paper, we investigate the class of irreducible stochastic matrices T of order n such that , for such matrices correspond to Markov chains with desirable conditioning properties. We identify some restrictions on the zero-nonzero patterns of such matrices, and construct several infinite classes of matrices for which κ₃ is as small as possible.     

Estimating Stochastic Dynamical Systems Driven by a Continuous-Time Jump Markov Process

We discuss the use of a continuous-time jump Markov process as the driving process in stochastic differential systems. Results are given on the estimation of the infinitesimal generator of the jump Markov process, when considering sample paths on random time intervals. These results are then applied within the framework of stochastic dynamical systems modeling and estimation. Numerical examples are given to illustrate both consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator of the infinitesimal generator of the driving process. We apply these results to fatigue crack growth modeling as an example of a complex dynamical system, with applications to reliability analysis.      

数据非随机缺失时单变量的分布函数估计

本文研究数据非随机缺失下的分布函数估计问题.在确定缺失数据是否属于某些指定区间的前提下,对一维随机变量y的分布函数F(y)作出了估计.此时,假定数据缺失机制形式已知,但包含某未知多维参数θ.本文证明了未知参数θ的估计量(θ)的相合性和渐近正态性,也证明了分布函数F(y)的估计量F(y)的相合性和渐近正态性.     

Markov Transition Functions and Semigroups of Measures

The application of operator semigroups to Markov processes is extended to Markov transition functions which do not have the Feller property. Markov transition functions are characterized as solutions of forward and backward equations which involve the generators of integrated semigroups and are shown to induce integral semigroups on spaces of measures.     

求解-类马尔可夫链方程的逆矩阵

一类马尔可夫链方程的求逆过程进行研究,该求逆是用该类马氏链解析地研究客户关系管理问题的关键环节,研究给出了该类矩阵逆矩阵的解析解.     

On Time-Reversibility and Estimating Functions for Markov Processes

The time-reversibility of a Markov process implies a particular structure of the score function. It is explored which martingale estimating functions and other unbiased estimating functions have a similar structure. This leads to an estimating function with a semiparametric efficiency property. Also relations to martingale estimating functions based on eigenfunctions of the infinitesimal generator are found.