High-Dimensional Multivariate Time Series With Additional Structure

High-dimensional multivariate time series are challenging due to the dependent and high-dimensional nature of the data, but in many applications there is additional structure that can be exploited to reduce computing time along with statistical error. We consider high-dimensional vector autoregressive processes with spatial structure, a simple and common form of additional structure. We propose novel high-dimensional methods that take advantage of such structure without making model assumptions about how distance affects dependence. We provide nonasymptotic bounds on the statistical error of parameter estimators in high-dimensional settings and show that the proposed approach reduces the statistical error. An application to air pollution in the USA demonstrates that the estimation approach reduces both computing time and prediction error and gives rise to results that are meaningful from a scientific point of view, in contrast to high-dimensional methods that ignore spatial structure. In practice, these high-dimensional methods can be used to decompose high-dimensional multivariate time series into lower-dimensional multivariate time series that can be studied by other methods in more depth. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

On the rate of convergence and aymptotic expansions forU-statistics under alternatives

In this paper, we consider asymptotic expansions and the rate of convergence for the distribution function of asymptotically efficient U-statistics under alternatives in the one-sample problem. Section 1 is an introduction. Section 2 contains the theorem concerning the rate of convergence for U-statistics; in Sec. 3, we formulate sets of sufficient conditions under which Edgeworth-type asymptotic expansions for U-statistics under alternatives will be constructed (see Theorem 2). Finally, these theorems are proved in Sec. 4. Supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant No. 96-01-01919). Proceedings of the Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, Vologda, Russia, 1998, Part II.     

Berry-Esseen type estimations for multi-sample U-statistics

We study the rate of convergence in the central limit theorem for nondegenerate multi-sample U-statistics of a series of independent samples of independent random variables under minimal sufficient moment conditions on the canonical functions of the Hoeffding representation. Bibliography: 7 titles. __________ Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 328, 2005, pp. 69–90.     

关于自助 U-统计量的渐近性质

一、引言设 X_1,X_2,…,X_n 为来自分布 F 的独立随机变量,h(x_1,x_2)为关于两个变元 x_1,x_2对称的 Borel 可测函数。设 Eh(X_1,X_2)=θ,那么下面定义的 U-统计量     

Likelihood Inferences for High-Dimensional Factor Analysis of Time Series With Applications in Finance

This article investigates likelihood inferences for high-dimensional factor analysis of time series data. We develop a matrix decomposition technique to obtain expressions of the likelihood functions and its derivatives. With such expressions, the traditional delta method that relies heavily on score function and Hessian matrix can be extended to high-dimensional cases. We establish asymptotic theories, including consistency and asymptotic normality. Moreover, fast computational algorithms are developed for estimation. Applications to high-dimensional stock price data and portfolio analysis are discussed. The technical proofs of the asymptotic results and the computer codes are available online.     

Rates of convergence in the strong law of large numbers for degenerate U-statistics

The problem of rates of convergence in the strong law of large numbers for degenerate U-statistics is discussed. These results are similar to those known for non-degenerate U-statistics.     

Nonparametric Regression with Singular Design

Theories of nonparametric regression are usually based on the assumption that the design density exists. However, in some applications such as those involving high-dimensional or chaotic time series data, the design measure may be singular and may be likely to have a fractal (nonintegral) dimension. In this paper, the popular Nadaraya–Watson estimator is studied under the general setup that the continuity of the design measure is governed by the local or pointwise dimension. It will be shown in the iid setup that the nonparametric regression estimator achieves a convergence rate which is dependent only on the pointwise dimension. The case of time series data is also studied. For the latter case, a new mixing condition is introduced, and an assumption of marginal or joint density is completely avoided. Three examples, a fractal regression and two applications for predicting chaotic time series, are used to illustrate the implications of the obtained results.     

Bayesian Registration of Functions With a Gaussian Process Prior

We present a Bayesian framework for registration of real-valued functional data. At the core of our approach is a series of transformations of the data and functional parameters, developed under a differential geometric framework. We aim to avoid discretization of functional objects for as long as possible, thus minimizing the potential pitfalls associated with high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Approximate draws from the posterior distribution are obtained using a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which is well suited for estimation of functions. We illustrate our approach via pairwise and multiple functional data registration, using both simulated and real datasets. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Higher Order Inference On A Treatment Effect Under Low Regularity Conditions

We describe a novel approach to nonparametric point and interval estimation of a treatment effect in the presence of many continuous confounders. We show that the problem can be reduced to that of point and interval estimation of the expected conditional covariance between treatment and response given the confounders. Our estimators are higher order U-statistics. The approach applies equally to the regular case where the expected conditional covariance is root-n estimable and to the irregular case where slower nonparametric rates prevail.     

Detecting high-dimensional determinism in time series with application to human movement data

We numerically investigate the ability of a statistic to detect determinism in time series generated by high-dimensional continuous chaotic systems. This recently introduced statistic (denoted V_E2) is derived from the averaged false nearest neighbors method for analyzing data. Using surrogate data tests, we show that the proposed statistic is able to discriminate high-dimensional chaotic data from their stochastic counterparts. By analyzing the effect of the length of the available data, we show that the proposed criterion is efficient for relatively short time series. Finally, we apply the method to real-world data from biomechanics, namely postural sway time series. In this case, the results led us to exclude the hypothesis of nonlinear deterministic underlying dynamics for the observed phenomena.     

U-统计量的几乎处处中心极限定理

本文得到了U-统计量的几乎处处中心极限定理(ASCLT).在EX1=0,EX2=1下,Berkes等[7]在一定条件下获得了i.i.d.随机变量序列部分和的函数型ASCLT,本文在同样的条件下取得了类似的结果     

Variational Bayes Estimation of Discrete-Margined Copula Models With Application to Time Series

We propose a new variational Bayes (VB) estimator for high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or a combination of discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior and is faster than previous likelihood-based approaches. We use it to estimate drawable vine copulas for univariate and multivariate Markov ordinal and mixed time series. These have dimension rT, where T is the number of observations and r is the number of series, and are difficult to estimate using previous methods. The vine pair-copulas are carefully selected to allow for heteroscedasticity, which is a feature of most ordinal time series data. When combined with flexible margins, the resulting time series models also allow for other common features of ordinal data, such as zero inflation, multiple modes, and under or overdispersion. Using six example series, we illustrate both the flexibility of the time series copula models and the efficacy of the VB estimator for copulas of up to 792 dimensions and 60 parameters. This far exceeds the size and complexity of copula models for discrete data that can be estimated using previous methods. An online appendix and MATLAB code implementing the method are available as supplementary materials.     

Generalized Rank Estimates For An Autoregressive Time Series: A U-Statistic Approach

A class of weighted rank-based estimates for estimating the parameter vector of an autoregressive time series is considered. This class of estimates is similar to, and contains, the class proposed by Terpstra et al. [54]. Asymptotic linearity properties are derived for the so called GR-estimates. Based on these properties, the GR-estimates are shown to be asymptotically normal at rate n ^1/2. The theory of U-statistics along with a characterization of weak dependence that is inherent in stationary AR(p) models are the primary tools used to obtain the results. The so called pair-wise slopes estimator, which is a special case of this class of estimates, is discussed in an AR(1) context. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Threshold Results for U-Statistics of Dependent Binary Variables

Large sample results for certain U-statistics, and related statistics, of binary dependent random variables are studied. The class of U-statistics include partial sums and polynomials of partial sums of a sequence of random variables. A very wide range of limit results are found. The form of the limit result can depend substantially on the magnitude of the appropriate normalizing sequence for the sum. Unexpectedly, the nature of the limit result also depends significantly on whether the degree of the U-statistic is even or odd. It is shown that dependence is a major factor contributing to this result. The limit results are illustrated with reference to a simple dynamic sequence of binary variables and a reinforced random walk.     

Quasi-Monte Carlo for Highly Structured Generalised Response Models

Highly structured generalised response models, such as generalised linear mixed models and generalised linear models for time series regression, have become an indispensable vehicle for data analysis and inference in many areas of application. However, their use in practice is hindered by high-dimensional intractable integrals. Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) is a dynamic research area in the general problem of high-dimensional numerical integration, although its potential for statistical applications is yet to be fully explored. We survey recent research in QMC, particularly lattice rules, and report on its application to highly structured generalised response models. New challenges for QMC are identified and new methodologies are developed. QMC methods are seen to provide significant improvements compared with ordinary Monte Carlo methods.      

关于U-统计量完全收敛性

本文讨论了满足E[f(xi,yj)xi]=E[f(xi,yj)xj]=0的U－统计量最大值完全收敛性的充分条件,降低了王岳宝1996年论文中的矩条件,进一步对一般形式的多元函数的U－统计量最大值的完全收敛性的充分条件进行了讨论,得到了较理想的结果。     

A Sparse Structured Shrinkage Estimator for Nonparametric Varying-Coefficient Model With an Application in Genomics

Many problems in genomics are related to variable selection where high-dimensional genomic data are treated as covariates. Such genomic covariates often have certain structures and can be represented as vertices of an undirected graph. Biological processes also vary as functions depending upon some biological state, such as time. High-dimensional variable selection where covariates are graph-structured and underlying model is nonparametric presents an important but largely unaddressed statistical challenge. Motivated by the problem of regression-based motif discovery, we consider the problem of variable selection for high-dimensional nonparametric varying-coefficient models and introduce a sparse structured shrinkage (SSS) estimator based on basis function expansions and a novel smoothed penalty function. We present an efficient algorithm for computing the SSS estimator. Results on model selection consistency and estimation bounds are derived. Moreover, finite-sample performances are studied via simulations, and the effects of high-dimensionality and structural information of the covariates are especially highlighted. We apply our method to motif finding problem using a yeast cell-cycle gene expression dataset and word counts in genes’ promoter sequences. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method can result in better variable selection and prediction for high-dimensional regression when the underlying model is nonparametric and covariates are structured. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.     

A Sparse Structured Shrinkage Estimator for Nonparametric Varying-Coefficient Model with an Application in Genomics

Many problems in genomics are related to variable selection where high-dimensional genomic data are treated as covariates. Such genomic covariates often have certain structures and can be represented as vertices of an undirected graph. Biological processes also vary as functions depending upon some biological state, such as time. High-dimensional variable selection where covariates are graph-structured and underlying model is nonparametric presents an important but largely unaddressed statistical challenge. Motivated by the problem of regression-based motif discovery, we consider the problem of variable selection for high-dimensional nonparametric varying-coefficient models and introduce a sparse structured shrinkage (SSS) estimator based on basis function expansions and a novel smoothed penalty function. We present an efficient algorithm for computing the SSS estimator. Results on model selection consistency and estimation bounds are derived. Moreover, finite-sample performances are studied via simulations, and the effects of high-dimensionality and structural information of the covariates are especially highlighted. We apply our method to motif finding problem using a yeast cell-cycle gene expression dataset and word counts in genes' promoter sequences. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method can result in better variable selection and prediction for high-dimensional regression when the underlying model is nonparametric and covariates are structured. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.     

关于U-统计量最大值完全收敛的进一步讨论

本文讨论了Ｕ－统计量最大值完全收敛的充分条件，拓宽了周元■及拙文［１］中核函数的范围，降低了矩的阶数，更确切合理地阐明了Ｕ－统计量最大值与熟知的独立和最大值的完全收敛之间的内在系与区别。