Bayesian estimation and inference for log-ACD models

This paper adapts Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for application to some auto-regressive conditional duration models. Subsequently, the properties of these estimators are examined and assessed across a range of possible conditional error distributions and dynamic specifications, including under error mis-specification. A novel model error distribution, employing a truncated skewed Student-t distribution is proposed and the Bayesian estimator assessed for it. The results of an extensive simulation study reveal that favourable estimation properties are achieved under a range of possible error distributions, but that the generalised gamma distribution assumption is most robust and best preserves these properties, including when it is incorrectly specified. The results indicate that the powerful numerical methods underlying the Bayesian estimator allow more efficiency than the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator for the cases considered.     

Semiparametric Bayesian inference for mean-covariance regression models

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian semiparametric mean-covariance regression model with known covariance structures. A mixture model is used to describe the potential non-normal distribution of the regression errors. Moreover, an empirical likelihood adjusted mixture of Dirichlet process model is constructed to produce distributions with given mean and variance constraints. We illustrate through simulation studies that the proposed method provides better estimations in some non-normal cases. We also demonstrate the implementation of our method by analyzing the data set from a sleep deprivation study.     

Bayesian inference for dependent elliptical measurement error models

In this article we provide a Bayesian analysis for dependent elliptical measurement error models considering nondifferential and differential errors. In both cases we compute posterior distributions for structural parameters by using squared radial prior distributions for the precision parameters. The main result is that the posterior distribution of location parameters, for specific priors, is invariant with respect to changes in the generator function, in agreement with previous results obtained in the literature under different assumptions. Finally, although the results obtained are valid for any elliptical distribution for the error term, we illustrate those results by using the student-t distribution and a real data set.     

Bayesian inference on partially linear mixed-effects joint models for longitudinal data with multiple features

The relationship between viral load and CD4 cell count is one of the interesting questions in AIDS research. Statistical models are powerful tools for clarifying this important problem. Partially linear mixed-effects (PLME) model which accounts for the unknown function of time effect is one of the important models for this purpose. Meanwhile, the mixed-effects modeling approach is suitable for the longitudinal data analysis. However, the complex process of data collection in clinical trials has made it impossible to rely on one particular model to address the issues. Asymmetric distribution, measurement error and left censoring are features commonly arisen in longitudinal studies. It is crucial to take into account these features in the modeling process to achieve reliable estimation and valid conclusion. In this article, we establish a joint model that accounts for all these features in the framework of PLME models. A Bayesian inferential procedure is proposed to estimate parameters in the joint model. A real data example is analyzed to demonstrate the proposed modeling approach for inference and the results are reported by comparing various scenarios-based models.     

Some remarks on Bayesian inference for one-way ANOVA models

We consider the standard one-way ANOVA model; it is well-known that classical statistical procedures are based on a scalar non-centrality parameter. In this paper we explore both marginal likelihood and integrated likelihood functions for this parameter and we show that they exactly lead to the same answer. On the other hand, we prove that a fully Bayesian testing procedure may provide different conclusions, depending on what is considered to be the real quantity of interest in the model or, said differently, which are the competing hypotheses. We illustrate these issues via a real data example.     

Bayesian parameter inference for models of the Black and Scholes type

In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of the mean and volatility of the return of an asset satisfying dS=SdX for some simple models of X. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as well as the likelihood function implied by the observed price history for the underlying. As an application of our framework, we compute the value at risk (VaR) and conditional VaR (CVaR) measures for the changes in the price of an option implied by the posterior distribution of the volatility of the underlying. The implied VaR and CVaR are more conservative than their classical counterpart, since it takes into account the estimation risk that arises due to parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asymptotic models and inference for extremes of spatio-temporal data

Recently there has been a lot of effort to model extremes of spatially dependent data. These efforts seem to be divided into two distinct groups: the study of max-stable processes, together with the development of statistical models within this framework; the use of more pragmatic, flexible models using Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) and simulation based inference techniques. Each modeling strategy has its strong and weak points. While max-stable models capture the local behavior of spatial extremes correctly, hierarchical models based on the conditional independence assumption, lack the asymptotic arguments the max-stable models enjoy. On the other hand, they are very flexible in allowing the introduction of physical plausibility into the model. When the objective of the data analysis is to estimate return levels or kriging of extreme values in space, capturing the correct dependence structure between the extremes is crucial and max-stable processes are better suited for these purposes. However when the primary interest is to explain the sources of variation in extreme events Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a very flexible tool due to the ease with which random effects are incorporated in the model. In this paper we model a data set on Portuguese wildfires to show the flexibility of BHM in incorporating spatial dependencies acting at different resolutions.     

Bayesian networks for mathematical models: Techniques for automatic construction and efficient inference

Expert knowledge in the form of mathematical models can be considered sufficient statistics of all prior experimentation in the domain, embodying generic or abstract knowledge of it. When used in a probabilistic framework, such models provide a sound foundation for data mining, inference, and decision making under uncertainty.We describe a methodology for encapsulating knowledge in the form of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). The resulting DBN framework can handle both data and model uncertainty in a principled manner, can be used for temporal data mining with noisy and missing data, and can be used to re-estimate model parameters automatically using data streams. A standard assumption when performing inference in DBNs is that time steps are fixed. Generally, the time step chosen is small enough to capture the dynamics of the most rapidly changing variable. This can result in DBNs having a natural time step that is very short, leading to inefficient inference; this is particularly an issue for DBNs derived from ODEs and for systems where the dynamics are not uniform over time.We propose an alternative to the fixed time step inference used in standard DBNs. In our algorithm, the DBN automatically adapts the time step lengths to suit the dynamics in each step. The resulting system allows us to efficiently infer probable values of hidden variables using multiple time series of evidence, some of which may be sparse, noisy or incomplete.We evaluate our approach with a DBN based on a variant of the van der Pol oscillator, and demonstrate an example where it gives more accurate results than the standard approach, but using only one tenth the number of time steps.We also apply our approach to a real-world example in critical care medicine. By incorporating knowledge in the form of an existing ODE model, we have built a DBN framework for efficiently predicting individualised patient responses using the available bedside and lab data.     

Bayesian inference on longitudinal-survival data with multiple features

The modeling of longitudinal and survival data is an active research area. Most of researches focus on improving the estimating efficiency but ignore many data features frequently encountered in practice. In this article, we develop a joint model that concurrently accounting for longitudinal-survival data with multiple features. Specifically, our joint model handles skewness, limit of detection, missingness and measurement errors in covariates which are typical observed in the collection of longitudinal-survival data from many studies. We employ a Bayesian approach for making inference on the joint model. The proposed model and method are applied to an AIDS study. A few alternative models under different conditions are compared. Some interesting results are reported. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed methods.     

Coupling stochastic EM and approximate Bayesian computation for parameter inference in state-space models

We study the class of state-space models and perform maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters. We consider a stochastic approximation expectation–maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the likelihood function with the novelty of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) within SAEM. The task is to provide each iteration of SAEM with a filtered state of the system, and this is achieved using an ABC sampler for the hidden state, based on sequential Monte Carlo methodology. It is shown that the resulting SAEM-ABC algorithm can be calibrated to return accurate inference, and in some situations it can outperform a version of SAEM incorporating the bootstrap filter. Two simulation studies are presented, first a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model then a state-space model having dynamics expressed by a stochastic differential equation. Comparisons with iterated filtering for maximum likelihood inference, and Gibbs sampling and particle marginal methods for Bayesian inference are presented.     

Bayesian approach for mixture models with grouped data

Finite mixture modeling approach is widely used for the analysis of bimodal or multimodal data that are individually observed in many situations. However, in some applications, the analysis becomes substantially challenging as the available data are grouped into categories. In this work, we assume that the observed data are grouped into distinct non-overlapping intervals and follow a finite mixture of normal distributions. For the inference of the model parameters, we propose a parametric approach that accounts for the categorical features of the data. The main idea of our method is to impute the missing information of the original data through the Bayesian framework using the Gibbs sampling techniques. The proposed method was compared with the maximum likelihood approach, which uses the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for the estimation of the model parameters. It was also illustrated with an application to the Old Faithful geyser data.     

Penalized profile least squares-based statistical inference for varying coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables models

The purpose of this paper is two fold. First, we investigate estimation for varying coefficient partially linear models in which covariates in the nonparametric part are measured with errors. As there would be some spurious covariates in the linear part, a penalized profile least squares estimation is suggested with the assistance from smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty. However, the estimator is often biased due to the existence of measurement errors, a bias correction is proposed such that the estimation consistency with the oracle property is proved. Second, based on the estimator, a test statistic is constructed to check a linear hypothesis of the parameters and its asymptotic properties are studied. We prove that the existence of measurement errors causes intractability of the limiting null distribution that requires a Monte Carlo approximation and the absence of the errors can lead to a chi-square limit. Furthermore, confidence regions of the parameter of interest can also be constructed. Simulation studies and a real data example are conducted to examine the performance of our estimators and test statistic.     

Bias-corrected statistical inference for partially linear varying coefficient errors-in-variables models with restricted condition

In this paper, we consider the statistical inference for the partially liner varying coefficient model with measurement error in the nonparametric part when some prior information about the parametric part is available. The prior information is expressed in the form of exact linear restrictions. Two types of local bias-corrected restricted profile least squares estimators of the parametric component and nonparametric component are conducted, and their asymptotic properties are also studied under some regularity conditions. Moreover, we compare the efficiency of the two kinds of parameter estimators under the criterion of Lo?ner ordering. Finally, we develop a linear hypothesis test for the parametric component. Some simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance for the proposed method. A real dataset is analyzed for illustration.     

Bayesian inference in spherical linear models: robustness and conjugate analysis

The early work of Zellner on the multivariate Student-t linear model has been extended to Bayesian inference for linear models with dependent non-normal error terms, particularly through various papers by Osiewalski, Steel and coworkers. This article provides a full Bayesian analysis for a spherical linear model. The density generator of the spherical distribution is here allowed to depend both on the precision parameter φ and on the regression coefficients β. Another distinctive aspect of this paper is that proper priors for the precision parameter are discussed.The normal-chi-squared family of prior distributions is extended to a new class, which allows the posterior analysis to be carried out analytically. On the other hand, a direct joint modelling of the data vector and of the parameters leads to conjugate distributions for the regression and the precision parameters, both individually and jointly. It is shown that some model specifications lead to Bayes estimators that do not depend on the choice of the density generator, in agreement with previous results obtained in the literature under different assumptions. Finally, the distribution theory developed to tackle the main problem is useful on its own right.     

Bayesian inference for clustered extremes

We consider Bayesian inference for the extremes of dependent stationary series. We discuss the virtues of the Bayesian approach to inference for the extremal index, and for related characteristics of clustering behaviour. We develop an inference procedure based on an automatic declustering scheme, and using simulated data we implement and assess this procedure, making inferences for the extremal index, and for two cluster functionals. We then apply our procedure to a set of real data, specifically a time series of wind-speed measurements, where the clusters correspond to storms. Here the two cluster functionals selected previously correspond to the mean storm length and the mean inter-storm interval. We also consider inference for long-period return levels, advocating the posterior predictive distribution as being most representative of the information required by engineers interested in design level specifications.      

Bayesian networks for discrete multivariate data: an algebraic approach to inference

In this paper we demonstrate how Gröbner bases and other algebraic techniques can be used to explore the geometry of the probability space of Bayesian networks with hidden variables. These techniques employ a parametrisation of Bayesian network by moments rather than conditional probabilities. We show that whilst Gröbner bases help to explain the local geometry of these spaces a complimentary analysis, modelling the positivity of probabilities, enhances and completes the geometrical picture. We report some recent geometrical results in this area and discuss a possible general methodology for the analyses of such problems.     

Penalized quadratic inference functions for single-index models with longitudinal data

In this paper, we focus on single-index models for longitudinal data. We propose a procedure to estimate the single-index component and the unknown link function based on the combination of the penalized splines and quadratic inference functions. It is shown that the proposed estimation method has good asymptotic properties. We also evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method via Monte Carlo simulation studies. Furthermore, the proposed method is illustrated in the analysis of a real data set.     

Empirical likelihood inference for median regression models for censored survival data

Recent advances in median regression model have made it possible to use this model for analyzing a variety of censored survival data. For inference on the model parameter vector, there are now semiparametric procedures based on normal approximation that are valid without strong conditions on the error distribution. However, the accuracy of such procedures can be quite low when the censoring proportion is high. In this paper, we propose an alternative semiparametric procedure based on the empirical likelihood. We define the empirical likelihood ratio for the parameter vector and show that its limiting distribution is a weighted sum of chi-square distributions. Numerical results from a simulation study suggest that the empirical likelihood method is more accurate than the normal approximation based method of Ying et al. (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 90 (1995) 178).     

Asymptotic theory for varying coefficient regression models with dependent data

The varying coefficient models (VCMs) are extremely important tools in the statistical literature and are widely used in many subject areas for data modeling and exploration. In linear VCMs, typically the errors are assumed to be independent. However, in many situations, especially in spatial or spatiotemporal settings, this is not a viable assumption. In this article, we consider nonparametric VCMs with a general dependent error structure which allows for both spatially autoregressive and spatial moving average models as special cases. We investigate asymptotic properties of local polynomial estimators of the model components. Specifically, we show that the estimates of the unknown functions and their derivatives are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We show that the rate of convergence and the asymptotic covariance matrix depend on the error dependence structure and we derive the explicit formula for the convergence results.