Splitting trees with neutral Poissonian mutations I: Small families

We consider a neutral dynamical model of biological diversity, where individuals live and reproduce independently. They have i.i.d. lifetime durations (which are not necessarily exponentially distributed) and give birth (singly) at constant rate b. Such a genealogical tree is usually called a splitting tree [9], and the population counting process (N_t;t≥0) is a homogeneous, binary Crump-Mode-Jagers process.We assume that individuals independently experience mutations at constant rate θ during their lifetimes, under the infinite-alleles assumption: each mutation instantaneously confers a brand new type, called an allele, to its carrier. We are interested in the allele frequency spectrum at time t, i.e., the number A(t) of distinct alleles represented in the population at time t, and more specifically, the numbers A(k,t) of alleles represented by k individuals at time t, k=1,2,…,N_t.We mainly use two classes of tools: coalescent point processes, as defined in [15], and branching processes counted by random characteristics, as defined in [11] and [13]. We provide explicit formulae for the expectation of A(k,t) conditional on population size in a coalescent point process, which apply to the special case of splitting trees. We separately derive the a.s. limits of A(k,t)/N_t and of A(t)/N_t thanks to random characteristics, in the same vein as in [19].Last, we separately compute the expected homozygosity by applying a method introduced in [14], characterizing the dynamics of the tree distribution as the origination time of the tree moves back in time, in the spirit of backward Kolmogorov equations.     

Ratio limit theorems for branching Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

We prove ratio limit theorems for critical ano supercritical branching Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. A finite first moment of the offspring distribution {p_n} assures convergence in probability for supercritical processes and conditional convergence in probability for critical processes. If even Σp_nnlog⁺log⁺n< ∞, then almost sure convergence obtains in the supercritical case.     

Moments, moderate and large deviations for a branching process in a random environment

Let (Z_n) be a supercritical branching process in a random environment ξ, and W be the limit of the normalized population size Z_n/E[Z_n|ξ]. We show large and moderate deviation principles for the sequence logZ_n (with appropriate normalization). For the proof, we calculate the critical value for the existence of harmonic moments of W, and show an equivalence for all the moments of Z_n. Central limit theorems on W−W_n and logZ_n are also established.     

Markov snakes and superprocesses

Summary We suggest the name Markov snakes for a class of path-valued Markov processes introduced recently by J.-F. Le Gall in connection with the theory of branching measure-valued processes. Le Gall applied this class to investigate path properties of superdiffusions and to approach probabilistically partial differential equations involving a nonlinear operator v–v ². We establish an isomorphism theorem which allows to translate results on continuous superprocesses into the language of Markov snakes and vice versa. By using this theorem, we get limit theorems for discrete Markov snakes.Partially supported by National Science Foundation Grant DMS-9301315 and by The US Army Research Office through the Mathematical Sciences Institute at Cornell University     

Diffusion approximations of age-and-position dependent branching processes

By a (G, F, h) age-and-position dependent branching process we mean a process in which individuals reproduce according to an age dependent branching process with age distribution function G(t) and offspring distribution generating function F, the individuals (located in R^N) can not move and the distance of a new individual from its parent is governed by a probability density function h(r). For each positive integer n, let Z_n(t,dx) be the number of individuals in dx at time t of the (G, F_n,h_n) age-and-position dependent branching process. It is shown that under appropriate conditions on G, F_n and h_n, the finite dimensional distribution of $\text{Z}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{(nt, dx)}\text{n}$ converges, as n → ∞, to the corresponding law of a diffusion continuous state branching process X(t,dx) determined by a ψ-semigroup {ψ_t: t ? 0}. The ψ-semigroup {ψ_t} is the solution of a non-linear evolution equation. A semigroup convergence theorem due to Kurtz [10], which gives conditions for convergence in distribution of a sequence of non-Markovian processes to a Markov process, provides the main tools.     

A central limit theorem for martingales and an application to branching processes

A functional central limit theorem is obtained for martingales which are not uniformly asymptotically negligible but grow at a geometric rate. The function space is not the usual C[0,1] or D[0,1] but R^N, the space of all real sequences and the metric used leads to a non-separable metric space.The main theorem is applied to a martingale obtained from a supercritical Galton-Watson branching process and as simple corollaries the already known central limit theorems for the Harris and Lotka-Nagaev estimators of the mean of the offspring distribution, are obtained.     

Extinction probability for a critical general branching process

A general branching process begins with a single individual born at time t=0. At random ages during its random lifespan L it gives birth to offspring, N(t) being the number born in the age interval [0,t]. Each offspring behaves as a probabilistically independent copy of the initial individual. Let Z(t) be the population at time t, and let N=N(∞). Theorem: If a general branching process is critical, i. e E{N}=1, and if $\text{σ}{}^2\text{=E {N(N?1)}<∞, 0<a≡}\text{∫}\text{0}\text{∞}\text{tdE{N(t)}}$,and as t → ∞ both $\text{t}{}^2\text{(1?}\text{E}\text{{N(t)})→0}$ and $\text{t}{}^2\text{P}\text{[L>t]→0}$, then $\text{tP[Z(t)>0]→}\text{2a}\text{σ}{}^2$ as t→∞.     

Central limit theorems for a supercritical branching process in a random environment

For a supercritical branching process (Z_n) in a stationary and ergodic environment ξ, we study the rate of convergence of the normalized population W_n=Z_n/E[Z_n|ξ] to its limit W_∞: we show a central limit theorem for W_∞−W_n with suitable normalization and derive a Berry-Esseen bound for the rate of convergence in the central limit theorem when the environment is independent and identically distributed. Similar results are also shown for W_n+k−W_n for each fixed k∈N^∗.     

Occupation Time Fluctuations of Weakly Degenerate Branching Systems

We establish limit theorems for rescaled occupation time fluctuations of a sequence of branching particle systems in ? ^d with anisotropic space motion and weakly degenerate splitting ability. In the case of large dimensions, our limit processes lead to a new class of operator-scaling Gaussian random fields with nonstationary increments. In the intermediate and critical dimensions, the limit processes have spatial structures analogous to (but more complicated than) those arising from the critical branching particle system without degeneration considered by Bojdecki et?al. (Stoch. Process. Appl. 116:1?C18 and 19?C35, 2006). Due to the weakly degenerate branching ability, temporal structures of the limit processes in all three cases are different from those obtained by Bojdecki et?al. (Stoch. Process. Appl. 116:1?C18 and 19?C35, 2006).     

Cyclically stationary Brownian local time processes

Summary. Local time processes parameterized by a circle, defined by the occupation density up to time T of Brownian motion with constant drift on the circle, are studied for various random times T. While such processes are typically non-Markovian, their Laplace functionals are expressed by series formulae related to similar formulae for the Markovian local time processes subject to the Ray–Knight theorems for BM on the line, and for squares of Bessel processes and their bridges. For T the time that BM on the circle first returns to its starting point after a complete loop around the circle, the local time process is cyclically stationary, with same two-dimensional distributions, but not the same three-dimensional distributions, as the sum of squares of two i.i.d. cyclically stationary Gaussian processes. This local time process is the infinitely divisible sum of a Poisson point process of local time processes derived from Brownian excursions. The corresponding intensity measure on path space, and similar Lévy measures derived from squares of Bessel processes, are described in terms of a 4-dimensional Bessel bridge by Williams’ decomposition of It?’s law of Brownian excursions. Received: 28 June 1995     

Interacting Fisher–Wright diffusions in a catalytic medium

We study the longtime behaviour of interacting systems in a randomly fluctuating (space–time) medium and focus on models from population genetics. There are two prototypes of spatial models in population genetics: spatial branching processes and interacting Fisher–Wright diffusions. Quite a bit is known on spatial branching processes where the local branching rate is proportional to a random environment (catalytic medium). Here we introduce a model of interacting Fisher–Wright diffusions where the local resampling rate (or genetic drift) is proportional to a catalytic medium. For a particular choice of the medium, we investigate the longtime behaviour in the case of nearest neighbour migration on the d-dimensional lattice. While in classical homogeneous systems the longtime behaviour exhibits a dichotomy along the transience/recurrence properties of the migration, now a more complicated behaviour arises. It turns out that resampling models in catalytic media show phenomena that are new even compared with branching in catalytic medium. Received: 15 November 1999 / Revised version: 16 June 2000 / Published online: 6 April 2001     

Asymptotically one-dimensional diffusions on the Sierpinski gasket and theabc-gaskets

Summary Diffusion processes on the Sierpinski gasket and theabc-gaskets are constructed as limits of random walks. In terms of the associated renormalization group, the present method uses the inverse trajectories which converge to unstable fixed points corresponding to the random walks on one-dimensional chains. In particular, non-degenerate fixed points are unnecessary for the construction. A limit theorem related to the discrete-time multi-type non-stationary branching processes is applied.     

Long-term behaviour of a cyclic catalytic branching system

We investigate the long-term behaviour of a system of SDEs for d≥2 types, involving catalytic branching and mutation between types. In particular, we show that the overall sum of masses converges to zero but does not hit zero in finite time a.s. We shall then focus on the relative behaviour of types in the limit. We prove weak convergence to a unique stationary distribution that does not put mass on the set where at least one of the coordinates is zero. Finally, we provide a complete analysis of the case d=2.     

Anisotropic branching random walks on homogeneous trees

Symmetric branching random walk on a homogeneous tree exhibits a weak survival phase: For parameter values in a certain interval, the population survives forever with positive probability, but, with probability one, eventually vacates every finite subset of the tree. In this phase, particle trails must converge to the geometric boundaryΩ of the tree. The random subset Λ of the boundary consisting of all ends of the tree in which the population survives, called the limit set of the process, is shown to have Hausdorff dimension no larger than one half the Hausdorff dimension of the entire geometric boundary. Moreover, there is strict inequality at the phase separation point between weak and strong survival except when the branching random walk is isotropic. It is further shown that in all cases there is a distinguished probability measure μ supported by Ω such that the Hausdorff dimension of Λ∩Ω_μ, where Ω_μ is the set of μ-generic points of Ω, converges to one half the Hausdorff dimension of Ω_μ at the phase separation point. Exact formulas are obtained for the Hausdorff dimensions of Λ and Λ∩Ω_μ, and it is shown that the log Hausdorff dimension of Λ has critical exponent 1/2 at the phase separation point. Received: 30 June 1998 / Revised version: 10 March 1999     

A duality relation for entrance and exit laws for Markov processes

Markov processes X_t on (X, F_X) and Y_t on (Y, F_Y) are said to be dual with respect to the function f(x, y) if E_xf(X_t, y) = E_yf(x, Y_t for all x ? X, y ? Y, t ? 0. It is shown that this duality reverses the role of entrance and exit laws for the processes, and that two previously published results of the authors are dual in precisely this sense. The duality relation for the function f(x, y) = 1_{x<y} is established for one-dimensional diffusions, and several new results on entrance and exit laws for diffusions, birth-death processes, and discrete time birth-death chains are obtained.     

Competitive Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with jumps

This paper considers competitive Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with jumps. The contributions of this paper are as follows. (a) We show that a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with jumps associated with the model has a unique global positive solution; (b) we discuss the uniform boundedness of the pth moment with p>0 and reveal the sample Lyapunov exponents; (c) using a variation-of-constants formula for a class of SDEs with jumps, we provide an explicit solution for one-dimensional competitive Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with jumps, and investigate the sample Lyapunov exponent for each component and the extinction of our n-dimensional model.     

Estimation of the offspring mean in a controlled branching process with a random control function

Controlled branching processes (CBP) with a random control function provide a useful way to model generation sizes in population dynamics studies, where control on the growth of the population size is necessary at each generation. An important special case of this process is the well known branching process with immigration. Motivated by the work of Wei and Winnicki [C.Z. Wei, J. Winnicki, Estimation of the mean in the branching process with immigration, Ann. Statist. 18 (1990) 1757–1773], we develop a weighted conditional least squares estimator of the offspring mean of the CBP and derive the asymptotic limit distribution of the estimator when the process is subcritical, critical and supercritical. Moreover, we show the strong consistency of this estimator in all the cases. The results obtained here extend those of Wei and Winnicki [C.Z. Wei, J. Winnicki, Estimation of the mean in the branching process with immigration, Ann. Statist. 18 (1990) 1757–1773] for branching processes with immigration and provide a unified limit theory of estimation.     

Sesqui-type branching processes

We consider branching processes consisting of particles (individuals) of two types (type $L$ and type $S$) in which only particles of type $L$ have offspring, proving estimates for the survival probability and the (tail of) the distribution of the total number of particles. Such processes are in some sense closer to single- than to multi-type branching processes. Nonetheless, the second, barren, type complicates the analysis significantly. The results proved here (about point and survival probabilities) are a key ingredient in the analysis of bounded-size Achlioptas processes in a recent paper by the last two authors.     

Maxima of branching random walks vs. independent random walks

In recent years several authors have obtained limit theorems for the location of the right most particle in a supercritical branching random walk. In this paper we will consider analogous problems for an exponentially growing number of independent random walks. A comparison of our results with the known results of branching random walk then identifies the limit behaviors which are due to the number of particles and those which are determined by the branching structure.     

Extending the Wong-Zakai theorem to reversible Markov processes

We show how to construct a canonical choice of stochastic area for paths of reversible Markov processes satisfying a weak H?lder condition, and hence demonstrate that the sample paths of such processes are rough paths in the sense of Lyons. We further prove that certain polygonal approximations to these paths and their areas converge in p-variation norm. As a corollary of this result and standard properties of rough paths, we are able to provide a significant generalization of the classical result of Wong-Zakai on the approximation of solutions to stochastic differential equations. Our results allow us to construct solutions to differential equations driven by reversible Markov processes of finite p-variation with p<4. Received May 18, 2001 / final version received April 3, 2001?Published online April 8, 2002