Threshold dynamics in a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

We discuss the dynamic of a stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate.The crucial threshold $\tilde{R}_0$ is identified and this will determine the extinction and persistence of the epidemic when the noise is small. We also discuss the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model around the endemic equilibrium of the corresponding deterministic system. When the noise is large, we find that a large noise intensity has the effect of suppressing the epidemic, so that it dies out. Finally, these results are illustrated by computer simulations.     

Epidemic transmission on SEIR stochastic models with nonlinear incidence rate

Our interest is to quantify the spread of an infective process with latency period and generic incidence rate that takes place in a finite and homogeneous population. Within a stochastic framework, two random variables are defined to describe the variations of the number of secondary cases produced by an index case inside of a closed population. Computational algorithms are presented in order to characterize both random variables. Finally, theoretical and algorithmic results are illustrated by several numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

具有常数迁入率和非线性传染率βI~pS~q的SI模型分析

对一种具有种群动力和非线性传染率的传染病模型进行了研究,建立了具有常数迁入率和非线性传染率βI~pS~q的SI模型.与以往的具有非线性传染率的传染病模型相比,这种模型引入了种群动力,也就是种群的总数不再为常数,因此,该类模型更精确地描述了传染病传播的规律.还讨论了模型的正不变集,运用微分方程稳定性理论分析了模型平衡点的存在性及稳定性,得出了疾病消除平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局渐进稳定的充分条件.进一步的,得出了在某些参数范围内会出现Hopf分支现象,并对上述模型进行了生物学讨论.     

Study of an S-I epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate: Discrete and stochastic version

Discrete and stochastic version of a susceptible-infective model system with nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We observe that the discrete system converges to a unique equilibrium point for certain effective transmission rate of the disease and beyond which stability of the system is disturbed. Stochastic analysis suggests that the model system is globally asymptotically stable in probability for certain strengths of white noise. Numerical simulations are also performed to validate the results.     

Analysis of a SIS epidemic model with stage structure and a delay

IntroductionAfter the pioneering work of Kermack-McKendrick on SIRS epidemiological models havebeen studied by many authorSll--31. There are some ldnds of disease which are only spread orhave more opportunities to be spread among children, for example, measles, chickenpox andscarlet fever, while others infectious diseases such as gonorrhea, swahilis are spread only amongadults. Consequently, realistic analysis of disease transmission in a population often requiresthe model to include stage …     

The threshold of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with saturated incidence

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with saturated incidence. When the noise is small, we obtain a threshold of the stochastic system which determines the extinction and persistence of the epidemic. Besides, we find that large noise will suppress the epidemic from prevailing.     

Asymptotic profiles of the endemic equilibrium of a diffusive SIS epidemic system with saturated incidence rate and spontaneous infection

A susceptible‐infected‐susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction‐diffusion model with saturated incidence rate and spontaneous infection is considered. We establish the existence of endemic equilibrium by using a fixed‐point theorem. The global asymptotic stability of the constant endemic equilibrium is discussed in the case of homogeneous environment. We mainly investigate the effects of diffusion and saturation on asymptotic profiles of the endemic equilibrium. When the saturated incidence rate tends to infinity, the susceptible and infective distributes in the habitat in a nonhomogeneous way; this result is in strong contrast with the case of no spontaneous infection, where the endemic equilibrium tends to the disease free equilibrium. Our analysis shows that the spontaneous infection can enhance the persistence of an infectious disease and may provide some useful implications on disease control.     

带有非线性传染率的传染病模型

对一类带有非线性传染率的SEIS传染病模型,找到了其基本再生数.借助动力系统极限理论,得到当基本再生数小于1时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,且疾病最终灭绝.当基本再生数大于1时,无病平衡点是不稳定的,而唯一的地方病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的.应用Fonda定理,得到当基本再生数大于1时疾病一致持续存在.     

Dynamics of an impulsive stochastic SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate

In this paper, the dynamics of an impulsive stochastic SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate are analyzed. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is proved by constructing the equivalent system without pulses. The threshold which determines the extinction and persistence of the disease is obtained. The global attraction of disease-free periodic solution is addressed. Sufficient condition for the existence of a positive periodic solution is established. These results are supported by computer simulations.     

The fractional-order SIS epidemic model with variable population size

In this work, we deal with the fractional-order SIS epidemic model with constant recruitment rate, mass action incidence and variable population size. The stability of equilibrium points is studied. Numerical solutions of this model are given. Numerical simulations have been used to verify the theoretical analysis.     

Traveling waves in an SEIR epidemic model with a general nonlinear incidence rate

ABSTRACT

We study the traveling waves of reaction-diffusion equations for a diffusive SEIR model with a general nonlinear incidence. The existence of traveling waves is determined by the basic reproduction number of the corresponding ordinary differential equations and the minimal wave speed. Its proof is showed by introducing an auxiliary system, applying Schauder fixed point theorem and then a limiting argument. The non-existence proof is obtained by two-sided Laplace transform when the speed is less than the critical velocity. Finally, we present some examples to support our theoretical results.     

Analysis of a SEIV epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a SEIV epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is shown that if the basic reproduction number _R0<1${\mathfrak{R}}_0<1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist. Moreover, we show that if the basic reproduction number _R0>1${\mathfrak{R}}_0>1$, the disease is uniformly persistent and the unique endemic equilibrium of the system with saturation incidence is globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions.     

TWO DIFFERENTIAL INFECTIVITY EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

This paper considers two differential infectivity（DI） epidemic models with a nonlinear incidence rate and constant or varying population size. The models exhibits two equilibria, namely., a disease-free equilibrium O and a unique endemic equilibrium. If the basic reproductive number σ is below unity,O is globally stable and the disease always dies out. If σ〉1, O is unstable and the sufficient conditions for global stability of endemic equilibrium are derived. Moreover,when σ〈 1 ,the local or global asymptotical stability of endemic equilibrium for DI model with constant population size in n-dimensional or two-dimensional space is obtained.     

Backward/Hopf bifurcations in SIS models with delayed nonlinear incidence rates

The classical SIS model with a constant transmission rate exhibits simple dynamic behaviors fully determined by the basic reproduction number. Behavioral changes and intervention measures influenced by the level of infection, likely with a time lag, require the transmission rate to be a nonlinear function of the total infectives. This nonlinear transmission, as shown in this paper via a combination of qualitative and numerical analysis, can generate interesting dynamical behaviors at the population level including backward and Hopf bifurcations. We conclude that sustained infections and periodic outbreaks can be consequences of delayed changes in behaviors or human intervention.      

Pulse vaccination on SEIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, we consider an SEIR epidemic model with two time delays and nonlinear incidence rate, and study the dynamical behavior of the model with pulse vaccination. By using the Floquet theorem and comparison theorem, we prove that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive when R^*<1, and using a new modelling method, we obtain a sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic model with pulse vaccination when R_*>1.     

Stability analysis of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with general incidence rate

In this paper, a stochastic delayed epidemic model with a generalized incidence rate is proposed and discussed. The positivity of solutions is established. A linearized form of the model is given and the stability conditions of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by using the technique of Lyapunov functionals.